Wall Street: U.S. housing market to see the second-biggest home price decline since the Great Depression

[K_Bin_W]

Atleast in Canada, the housing market in Ontario and BC are oversaturated and overvalued. People are now migrating in droves to AB after selling their homes and buying a similar sized home for a quarter to half of the value upfront, thereby repeating the same BS here.

I have a 5 bedroom home I bought in 2020, in the last 8 months, we've received more mail and realtors asking if we want to sell above market value, as well as local immigrant families asking if we want to sell to their relatives. And other than the number of bedrooms there is literally NOTHING special about my home.

Even with interest hike I saw a 5 bed selling for $500k over asking in last 2 weeks.. it's crazy

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

US housing market will crash by over 80%

LOL! We can add this to the "civil war" is coming soon predictions.

If prices went down 80% I'd buy my kids houses so they wouldn't have to. Lots of people would be gobbling up homes.

Remember alot of people have lots of cash. Buying a million dollar house for only $200,000 would see a flood of buyers.

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

LOL! We can add this to the "civil war" is coming soon predictions.

If prices went down 80% I'd buy my kids houses so they wouldn't have to. Lots of people would be gobbling up homes.

Remember alot of people have lots of cash.

1% is not a lot.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

1% is not a lot.

9% of US households are worth over a million dollars.

Median household income is ~$67,000 which is about the same as Canada. But only 2% of Canadian households are worth over $1M.

That's alot of people who can snatch up million dollar homes for $200,000.

The only places that are going to fall 80% are in areas where nobody wants to live.

 

[beijingwalker]

interest rates go up the demand for housing goes down, its normal. Unlike China where even low interest rates and incentives isn't able to slow down the slump in property prices. That is the key difference, people with liquidity will buy new units at low prices. The rest will wait for interest rates to fall.

Do you know in China in many cases people can't buy property outside their home cities and provinces? If China really wants to boost the estate, lifting those restrictions and property business will shoot up throught the roof overnight.

 

[aviator_fan]

They are busy laughing at China's housing market, someone never looks at themselves in the mirror.

China its a first time instant and lot of the population not prepared.

This is a cyclical thing in the US once a decade. I think the 10% is conservative. Its going to be higher than that.

The language of these journalists is interesting: 'culprit being high interest rates'. Who ever said that in perpetuity interest rates should be 2%. Rates are expected to fluctuate. For the realtor industry (and these dumb journalists), it should be a 0% perpetuity so they all seem like geniuses for being in the property sector, but the minute its not 0%, its a shitty decision as it impacts rates.

7% was the standard rate in late 90s and the world was surviving just fine

I like what US Fed is doing. Interest rates will climb to 20% in the next 3 years.

US housing market will crash by over 80%

Great depression will look like a mild recession when compared to this.

Some how you sitting in Canada have an inside track to how the neurons are connected of the bankers?

There is a rate plot that Fed Reserve provides that they have indicated the long-term path. And they have given that rate plot that says Fed rate may go to 4.5% t0 5% by 2023 and may stay there for a while.

So where are you getting your exagerrated claim of 20%. Fine if you want to fantasize of US supposed collapse, but just fantasize about it. Its not going to be the interest rates that will get it there.

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

China its a first time instant and lot of the population not prepared.

This is a cyclical thing in the US once a decade. I think the 10% is conservative. Its going to be higher than that.

The language of these journalists is interesting: 'culprit being high interest rates'. Who ever said that in perpetuity interest rates should be 2%. Rates are expected to fluctuate. For the realtor industry (and these dumb journalists), it should be a 0% perpetuity so they all seem like geniuses for being in the property sector, but the minute its not 0%, its a shitty decision as it impacts rates.

7% was the standard rate in late 90s and the world was surviving just fine


Some how you sitting in Canada have an inside track to how the neurons are connected of the bankers?

There is a rate plot that Fed Reserve provides that they have indicated the long-term path. And they have given that rate plot that says Fed rate may go to 4.5% t0 5% by 2023 and may stay there for a while.

So where are you getting your exagerrated claim of 20%. Fine if you want to fantasize of US supposed collapse, but just fantasize about it. Its not going to be the interest rates that will get it there.

Fed said that will not stop hiking interest rates until inflation has been tamed.

How much inflation has been tamed since Fed started the rate increases? Not much.

Fed will take the unemployment to 20% and crash housing market by 80%

 

[SaadH]

I am...and I don't see any of our builders claiming 100's of billions in debt.

Infact people are crying they don't build enough.

15 million houses sit vacant in the US, capacity is not the issue...

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

15 million houses sit vacant in the US, capacity is not the issue...

True, but they might be vacation homes or maybe in Detroit

Report: How many homes are sitting empty in your state

More than 16 million homes are sitting vacant across the U.S., according to a report using census data.

www.newsnationnow.com

"Just because a home is vacant doesn’t mean it’s rotting away. The report points out there are several reasons a home could be vacant; it may be on the market or it could be a vacation home. There’s also the chance it’s uninhabitable."

The states with the highest vacancy rates are:

1. Vermont (22.9%)
2. Maine (22.7%)
3. Alaska (20.5%)
4. West Virginia (18.1%)
5. Alabama (17.7%)
6. Florida (17.1%)
7. New Hampshire (16.7%)
8. Mississippi (16.3%)
9. Louisiana (16.2%)
10. Wyoming (15.9%

The states with the lowest vacancy rates are:

1. Oregon (7.8%)
2. Washington (7.9%)
3. Connecticut (8.1%)
4. New Jersey (8.5%)
5. California (8.7%)
6. Massachusetts (8.7%)
7. Maryland (9.1%)
8. Illinois (9.1%)
9. Utah (9.5%)
10. Colorado (9.5%)

But you are correct even 9% is a huge vacancy rate.

 

[MH.Yang]

interest rates go up the demand for housing goes down, its normal. Unlike China where even low interest rates and incentives isn't able to slow down the slump in property prices. That is the key difference, people with liquidity will buy new units at low prices. The rest will wait for interest rates to fall.

China's housing market only stopped growing and did not cut prices. Moreover, the Chinese govt has not cancelled the policies that suppress housing prices, such as purchase restrictions.

If we think China's housing market is stagnanting, then America's housing market is collapsing.

 

[jhungary]

Dude, 30-50% increase in price and you guys are all yelling foul. I have seen 700-1000% increase in house price in Australia in the last 10 years thanks to the Chinese "Investor" and Government unreasonable rate and lending policy. A 300 sq meter house in Granville, Inner West of Sydney brought for $115,000 in 2004 was sold for $800,000 in 2014. At least at the high mark, US housing market still somehow affordable to the general public.

Low house price is a good thing because affordable housing is a good thing. Building that were half build and the builder have no money to developed the off the plan is not, building company collapse because of debt is not a good thing.

 

[dbc]

China's housing market only stopped growing and did not cut prices.

China home prices is falling since the last 12 months.

China’s Home Price Slump Reaches a Year as Crisis Drags On

China’s home prices slid at a faster pace in August, marking a 12th month of declines, underscoring how a revival of the country’s real estate market could take much longer despite a flurry of government support policies.

www.bloomberg.com