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[Video] Spotlight - Muneze Jahangir. Gen Asad Durrani, Afrasiab Khattak

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Muneze Jahangir. Gen Asad Durrani, Afrasiab Khattak discuss Afghanistan.

Gen Durrani calls the Haqqani Network Pakistan's "Sagay" brothers -- later tries to recover by saying all Afghans are Pakistan's "Sagay" brothers.

 
Muneze Jahangir. Gen Asad Durrani, Afrasiab Khattak discuss Afghanistan.

Gen Durrani calls the Haqqani Network Pakistan's "Sagay" brothers -- later tries to recover by saying all Afghans are Pakistan's "Sagay" brothers.


Haqqani Network as "Sagay" brothers :). Imagine Amrullah Saleh goes on the record and puts TTP as his brethrens!

PS : The region needs more cooperation and less brinkmanship.
 
Haqqani Network as "Sagay" brothers :). Imagine Amrullah Saleh goes on the record and puts TTP as his brethrens!

PS : The region needs more cooperation and less brinkmanship.

I suspect Gen. Durrani is far more sympathetic of Afghan misery than most Afghan intellectuals and elites would be of Pakistani misery. I think the Pakistani view is that they are doing what they have to do out of utter necessity.

Now to your point of cooperation -- that is a laudable aspiration but it will not come to be just because we desire it. Are you by any chance familiar with the prisoner's dilemma: although both actors stand much to gain if they cooperate, yet the choice they opt for is to sell each other out.
 
I suspect Gen. Durrani is far more sympathetic of Afghan misery than most Afghan intellectuals and elites would be of Pakistani misery. I think the Pakistani view is that they are doing what they have to do out of utter necessity.

Now to your point of cooperation -- that is a laudable aspiration but it will not come to be just because we desire it. Are you by any chance familiar with the prisoner's dilemma: although both actors stand much to gain if they cooperate, yet the choice they opt for is to sell each other out.

I studied game theory in school back in the good old days when I was in my twenties, grown a bit now :) Pakistan and Afghanistan will need to stop backstabbing each other if they are to see a semblance of normality and folks like General Sahib needs to be thing of the past or else we will be in this never ending turmoil for ever.

As for the view that its done out of necessity is very simplistic, Pakistan a nuclear armed nation with over 700 hundred thousand security personal should be more confident its abilities to thwart hostile acts, and the notion that its threatned by a government that maybe pro-India is just preposterous.
 
Pakistan and Afghanistan will need to stop backstabbing each other if they are to see a semblance of normality and folks like General Sahib needs to be thing of the past or else we will be in this never ending turmoil for ever.
As for the view that its done out of necessity is very simplistic,
Pakistan a nuclear armed nation with over 700 hundred thousand security personal should be more confident its abilities to thwart hostile acts, and the notion that its threatned by a government that maybe pro-India is just preposterous.

Whether it is simplistic or not-simplistic, primitive or not-primitive, stupid or not-stupid, the fact of the matter is that, at least according to the Afghan narrative -- Pakistan has used unconventional means to exert influence in Afghanistan. This narrative is supported in-small part to in-large part by other parties including international organizations, people in Pakistan and scholars.

So the question really is: how does one get past this less than optimal state in Pakistan/Afghanistan relations?

Now one can say Pakistan just needs to behave like a normal state -- now people have been saying that but it has failed to change the status quo. People can say let's exert pressure on Pakistan -- that has not worked. One can argue: if this is foolish for Pakistan or not -- or whether Pakistan is paranoid or not. Even if all the answers to all these questions are against Pakistan: it does not change the fact that that the situation is what it is and nothing has been able to change Pakistan's behavior.

To quote Einstein: "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Another way I like to phrase the question is this: What should the Afghans, International Community and Pakistan do if Pakistan will continue to play by the rules it has in the past, if Pakistan will continue to be a paranoid state, if the Pakistani establishment will continue to believe in strategic depth.

For example:
1. Will the protests where 20,000+ Afghan citizens who protested the horrific murder of the Zabul 7 change the calculus -- to me the answer would be no
2. Will acts such as APS change Pakistanis calculus -- again to me the answer would be no
3. Will 80 channels in Kabul change the Pakistani calculus -- again no
4. Will the prospect of milking transit fee from Indian goods flowing from Wagah to Chaman lead to change -- no
5. Will some intensive diplomacy between regional and international partners lead to change -- no

Again, none of the above address the moral or immoral nature of Pakistan's behavior, as it has no relevance to our fundamental question: How does one change Pakistan's behavior by a sufficient amount within an acceptable time frame?

IMHO all else is mental masturbation -- it has no bearing on reality.

I studied game theory in school back in the good old days when I was in my twenties, grown a bit now :)
Curious, at what level did you study game theory? Did you study it as part of business school or IR or Economics? Was the focus application to policy? Did you study it with mathematical rigor? For example did you study sketches of Nash's proof using Topology, fixed-point theorems, etc? Did you study it using simulations?

I never formally studied game theory -- other than here and there as part of something else -- strange but somehow I missed a graduate level course on it. Actually I ran into an Afghan graduate student (which is quite rare in hard sciences) who was using game theory to study the problem facing Afghanistan: Taliban & Pakistan.

I asked that because game theory's results are very cold -- do not mean disrespect here -- which I don't find in your analyses.
 
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I studied game theory in school back in the good old days when I was in my twenties, grown a bit now :) Pakistan and Afghanistan will need to stop backstabbing each other if they are to see a semblance of normality and folks like General Sahib needs to be thing of the past or else we will be in this never ending turmoil for ever.

As for the view that its done out of necessity is very simplistic, Pakistan a nuclear armed nation with over 700 hundred thousand security personal should be more confident its abilities to thwart hostile acts, and the notion that its threatned by a government that maybe pro-India is just preposterous.
Sir those Afghan troops/militia trained by CIA/US military will be a serious problem for Pak as soon as the US stops funding them, we will have hundreds perhaps thousands of well trained mercenaries capable of carrying out bombing, assassinations and other destabilization tactics in our land at the behest of RAW who no doubt will be paying them in hard currency stashed away in the vaults of those so-called consulates.So you can bet GHQ is rightfully concerned.kudos
 
How does one change Pakistan's behavior by a sufficient amount within an acceptable time frame?


I think it's pretty clear that the people who should be changing their behavior are on the other side of the border. Every single olive branch extended by Pakistan has been shunned by the Afghans (the ISI-NDS memorandum) or simply ignored (Requests to coordinate with the PA in Op Zarb-e-Azb).
 
I think it's pretty clear that the people who should be changing their behavior are on the other side of the border. Every single olive branch extended by Pakistan has been shunned by the Afghans (the ISI-NDS memorandum) or simply ignored (Requests to coordinate with the PA in Op Zarb-e-Azb).

No I think what you have said is not relevant to the argument I made above.

My point was: that's Afghan actions do not make sense according to the Afghan view of reality. If Pakistan, according to Afghan's view of reality is this evil actor, what are they doing to change Pakistan's behavior? Holding protests in Kabul, running 80 TV channels, and taking about International partners will have no impact on Pakistan (according to the Pakistan Afghans say Pakistan is).
 

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