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The Chinese 'Invasion' Of Siberia Is A Myth - Forbes
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Michael Rubin noted the swiftly growing numbers of Chinese living in Siberia and speculated that China has designs on Russia’s Asian possessions. The Diplomat published an article straightforwardly titled “China’s Russian Invasion” and numerous other outlets such as the Harvard International Review, ABC News,France 24, and theBBC have produced content which strongly suggests that a Chinese takeover of the Russian Far East is a matter of when, not if. I can personally attest that the “Chinese invasion” hypothesis is broadly accepted by the Washington elite: for such a seemingly obscure topic, it is casually dropped into both small talk and formal speeches with surprising frequency. “Everyone knows” that an increasingly dynamic China will dominate a Russia that is vodka soaked and dying.
I’m not sure how much of this invasion enthusiasm is traceable to Tom Clancy’s popular novel The Bear and The Dragon, in which the Americans and the Russians team up to defeat an Chinese annexation of (you guessed it!) Eastern Siberia, and how much is the result of simple panic at China’s unprecedentedly rapid rise to global prominence. To be perfectly honest, I don’t really care why so many people get so worked up about the Chinese, the Russians, and a largely desolate area in which very few people live. What I do care about is that the “Chinese invasion” is a myth: it simply is not taking place and, given the demographic trends, there’s no reason to expect that it will take place.
What makes me so confident in making such an assertion? Well the population of the Chinese provinces bordering Russia, the areas that would be expected to export people, is already stagnant:
But why is their population stagnating? Maybe everyone has already decamped for Russia? Well the regions bordering Russia have seen their natural rates of population change (i.e. the rate at which births exceed deaths) plummet rapidly. As people have fewer and fewer children China’s population has started to age rapidly. The regions bordering Russia, though, have aged far more rapidly than China as a whole. In fact, if current trends continue, within the next several years the Chinese population on the Russian border will start to shrink.
If the Chinese aren’t moving to Siberia where are they moving? Well in a pattern that precisely matches what you would expect to see in country that is rapidly urbanizing, the Chinese mostly seem to be moving to the big cities. In contrast to the stagnation of the Russian border region, the populations of major economic centers like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong are exploding
The simple (and rather banal) truth is that no one seems to want to live in Eastern Siberia. Russian statistics shows that the Russian Far East is losing people to other parts of Russia. Chinese statistics show that the Chinese provinces bordering Russia are demographically stagnant and on the verge of natural population loss. What no statistics anywhere show is a sustained Chinese push into the virgin lands of Siberia.
Given the reality of a China that is swiftly becoming more educated and more urbanized, and also given the reality of China’s rapid demographic transition, there is no reason to expect that there will be a sudden increase in the already-low demand for living in an obscure, rural region with a horrific climate and an underdeveloped economy. China’s population is quickly becoming more concentrated in areas with higher standards of living and better economic opportunities. This will create major challenges for municipal governments and for the Chinese communist party, and could lead to severe political and economic problems. But what it absolutely won’t lead to is a Chinese “invasion” of the Russian Far East. Unless there is a dramatic change in government policy, the region will remain what it has always been: an underpopulated backwater.
Comment Now
Michael Rubin noted the swiftly growing numbers of Chinese living in Siberia and speculated that China has designs on Russia’s Asian possessions. The Diplomat published an article straightforwardly titled “China’s Russian Invasion” and numerous other outlets such as the Harvard International Review, ABC News,France 24, and theBBC have produced content which strongly suggests that a Chinese takeover of the Russian Far East is a matter of when, not if. I can personally attest that the “Chinese invasion” hypothesis is broadly accepted by the Washington elite: for such a seemingly obscure topic, it is casually dropped into both small talk and formal speeches with surprising frequency. “Everyone knows” that an increasingly dynamic China will dominate a Russia that is vodka soaked and dying.
I’m not sure how much of this invasion enthusiasm is traceable to Tom Clancy’s popular novel The Bear and The Dragon, in which the Americans and the Russians team up to defeat an Chinese annexation of (you guessed it!) Eastern Siberia, and how much is the result of simple panic at China’s unprecedentedly rapid rise to global prominence. To be perfectly honest, I don’t really care why so many people get so worked up about the Chinese, the Russians, and a largely desolate area in which very few people live. What I do care about is that the “Chinese invasion” is a myth: it simply is not taking place and, given the demographic trends, there’s no reason to expect that it will take place.
What makes me so confident in making such an assertion? Well the population of the Chinese provinces bordering Russia, the areas that would be expected to export people, is already stagnant:
But why is their population stagnating? Maybe everyone has already decamped for Russia? Well the regions bordering Russia have seen their natural rates of population change (i.e. the rate at which births exceed deaths) plummet rapidly. As people have fewer and fewer children China’s population has started to age rapidly. The regions bordering Russia, though, have aged far more rapidly than China as a whole. In fact, if current trends continue, within the next several years the Chinese population on the Russian border will start to shrink.
If the Chinese aren’t moving to Siberia where are they moving? Well in a pattern that precisely matches what you would expect to see in country that is rapidly urbanizing, the Chinese mostly seem to be moving to the big cities. In contrast to the stagnation of the Russian border region, the populations of major economic centers like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong are exploding
The simple (and rather banal) truth is that no one seems to want to live in Eastern Siberia. Russian statistics shows that the Russian Far East is losing people to other parts of Russia. Chinese statistics show that the Chinese provinces bordering Russia are demographically stagnant and on the verge of natural population loss. What no statistics anywhere show is a sustained Chinese push into the virgin lands of Siberia.
Given the reality of a China that is swiftly becoming more educated and more urbanized, and also given the reality of China’s rapid demographic transition, there is no reason to expect that there will be a sudden increase in the already-low demand for living in an obscure, rural region with a horrific climate and an underdeveloped economy. China’s population is quickly becoming more concentrated in areas with higher standards of living and better economic opportunities. This will create major challenges for municipal governments and for the Chinese communist party, and could lead to severe political and economic problems. But what it absolutely won’t lead to is a Chinese “invasion” of the Russian Far East. Unless there is a dramatic change in government policy, the region will remain what it has always been: an underpopulated backwater.
