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Press Review: China may offer alternative to TPP deal, Putin's state-of-the-nation address

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Kommersant: Trump’s election pushes China to offer alternative to TPP

Donald Trump’s unanticipated, colossal victory has shaken up all prospects of ratifying a deal on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and this may radically change the talks on free trade in Asia, Kommersant business daily writes. At the APEC summit on November 19-20, China is expected to promote an alternative project - the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

Russia’s key initiative at the summit will be suggesting that the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) should become one of the platforms for integration in the region. Director of the Russian APEC Study Center Tatyana Flegontova told Kommersant that this year, the parties hammered out a strategic study on the prospects of the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). If the TPP and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) had previously been considered a keystone, this time the feeling is "we managed to show our colleagues that we will be able to participate in this zone only as the EAEU."


The TPP has more chances to be created now than the free trade zone as part of APEC. For Russia, the failure of major integration projects by the US and China could signal the need to revise its mid-term foreign trade policy. So far, the prospects of such an ambitious free trade zone are unclear as the participants are not ready yet to genuinely negotiate, Flegontova said. China suggested sealing an agreement by 2020, but the US opposed the plans. Now, Beijing is coming out against the commitments on the TPP and the RCEP in joint declarations.

There are no negotiations between Russia and China on excluding the US from talks on the free trade zone, Foreign Ministry's Ambassador-at-Large and Russia's APEC Senior Official Valery Sorokin said.

It is evident that the summit participants will be mostly worried about the prospects of the already signed agreement on the TPP, the paper says. The US President-elect vowed to withdraw from the TPP shortly after Barack Obama’s presidency ends.

The TPP’s unclear future allows China to promote the creation of a Beijing-led trade bloc as a competitor, experts told the paper. "Now China can square its shoulders by promoting the RCEP, but this agreement is unlikely to be as advanced as the TPP: its major participants are countries that protect their markets," said Alexei Portansky, Professor at Higher School of Economics.



Izvestia: Putin to deliver state-of-the-nation address on December 8

Every December, the Russian president traditionally delivers his address to the parliament, the Federal Assembly, and gives an annual press conference attended by the Russian and Western mass media representatives. This year, the state-of-the-nation address is scheduled for December 8, while the annual press conference will be set for December 22, a source close to the government and two sources in the State Duma (the lower house of parliament) told Izvestia.


Political scientists, representatives of political parties and experts told the paper what they expect from the president’s address. Most of them said the spotlight will be focused on the country’s economic situation and the anti-crisis plan as well as cooperation between the authorities and the public.

The head of Russia’s Civic Chamber and co-chairman of the central headquarters of the All-Russia People’s Front, Alexander Brechalov, said the president is expected to focus on the further formation of civil society initiatives. The Kremlin understands the importance of working with civil initiatives and NGOs during the crisis, he said.

Business Ombudsman Boris Titov said the economy is the top priority issue. He told Izvestia that the business sector is waiting for "an answer on when a principal shift in economic policy will occur." Positive signals are just not enough as the business community is anticipating particular steps, Titov stressed.

Political scientist Mikhail Vinogradov said Putin may address the corruption issue amid the high-profile case of former Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev.

The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) is awaiting a signal on resetting ties with foreign partners: the US, Bulgaria and Moldova. The party believes the president will speak about the fight against terrorism and the operation in Syria, LDPR’s First Deputy Chairman in the State Duma, Yaroslav Nilov, said.


RBC: Russia to challenge sanctions as breach of EBRD charter

As a result of the sanctions, Russia lost investments of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and has decided to challenge the legality of the restrictions by putting it to a vote at the bank’s board of governors next year, RBC business daily writes. Moscow believes that the EBRD’s charter has been violated.


Russia, the EBRD’s seventh largest shareholder, has been deprived of access to the bank’s new investments due to sanctions over the past two years. In 1991, the bank said it was committed to helping former Socialist countries develop their markets. Western shareholders’ refusal to finance Russia’s new projects (the EBRD earlier invested $2 bln per year in Russia) was not legally arranged and violates the international institution’s charter, the Russian side claims. This was written in a memorandum sent in September to the representatives of all EBRD shareholders, the paper says.

A source close to the Russian management in the EBRD acknowledged that the Russians had avoided stirring up tensions until the bitter end, but after the EBRD’s board of directors once again ignored the complaints in September, Moscow set out to take serious legal action. Now, Russia plans to unveil its claims during the vote of the EBRD board of governors scheduled for May 2017 in Cyprus, the source said.

Deputy Finance Minister Sergey Storchak, who serves as deputy governor for Russia at the EBRD, confirmed to the paper: "There are such plans."

The memorandum says that Russia’s rights were violated not only from the viewpoint of the bank’s charter documents, but from the position of international public law. In fact, this is an "internal dispute," Alexei Panich of the Herbert Smith Freehills law firm said. "As far as I understand, this does not concern international law, but rather EBRD’s internal documents."


Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia’s opposition helps EU draw up roadmap out of sanctions impasse

Former Russian oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky and the representatives of Russia’s opposition have announced a plan for Europe on warming its relations with Moscow, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes on Friday.

During the two-day Boris Nemtsov forum in the European Parliament, which was wrapped up on Thursday, representatives of Russian and European liberal parties called for resuming dialogue between Russia and the EU on an informal level.

The forum examined one key question: whether the Western sanctions against Russia have proved effective. The leader of the Pskov branch of Russia’s Yabloko party, Lev Shlosberg, stressed that the sanctions have hurt the country’s economy but there was zero political gain.

Ilya Ponomaryov, a politician and former member of the State Duma, said the Russian opposition should be preparing for patching up relations with the West. "We call to shift from sanctions against the whole country to personal anti-corruption sanctions. Besides, the EU needs to encourage ordinary Russians by increasing cultural and educational programs and simplifying the visa regime," he stressed.

The European politicians share this idea, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. The European Parliament is discussing proposals not only on simplifying the visa regime with Russia, but on fully lifting visa requirements for Russians under 25 years of age. But this will be possible only after progress on the Minsk accords has been made.

The discussion on possibly lifting the sanctions or at least changing this course intensified after Donald Trump won the US presidential election, the paper recalls. "During the next year, in line with the current tradition in politics Europe will correct its policy towards Russia, looking to the stance of the new US president," an expert on the Russian-European relations Anna van Densky said.


Izvestia: Russian farmers want tit-for-tat sanctions against West to remain


Russian Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev told Izvestia in an interview on Friday about the country’s harvest and the prospects for the sector amid Russia’s food embargo on Western products.

The sanctions were a true gift for Russian farmers: the sector demonstrated significant growth, while domestic goods are replacing foreign brands, the minister said.

"The farmers would be thankful if Russia’s reciprocal sanctions against Western goods remained for another five years. The closure of our market opened a window of opportunities for the Russian agriculture sector," Tkachev explained.

Russian farmers have managed to fully meet the demands of the domestic market in a number of areas and are ready to boost exports. The minister stressed that even if Western sanctions are lifted in two years, the agricultural producers won’t be severely affected as they have completely filled the gap and meet the requirements of the market.

"Once the restrictions are lifted, the Europeans will find it difficult to compete on the Russian market against domestic suppliers," the minister stated.

http://tass.com/pressreview/913215
 
Americans tend to believe that the TPP is bad for them (which is why both Hillary and Trump were against it), however China sees trade deals as a very good thing indeed.

The reason is simple. Because China is the most competitive when it comes to trade.
 
Americans tend to believe that the TPP is bad for them (which is why both Hillary and Trump were against it), however China sees trade deals as a very good thing indeed.

The reason is simple. Because China is the most competitive when it comes to trade.

Fortunately, Hillary didn't win. She only wanted to pander her voters during the election, but she would pass the TPP after getting elected.

Obama, Hillary, and all the American ruling elites want the TPP to undermine China's influence in the global stage.
 

Pacific rim leaders eye China lead on trade after Trump win



By Rosalba O'Brien and Teresa Cespedes
ReutersNovember 18, 2016

By Rosalba O'Brien and Teresa Cespedes

LIMA (Reuters) - Leaders of Pacific rim nations gathered in Peru on Friday, looking to China to salvage hopes for regional trade as prospects of a Donald Trump presidency in the United States sounded a possible death knell for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade pact.

Discussions between the 21 members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit were dominated by fears of rising anti-globalization sentiment in the West, with increasing signs that countries are looking to China to take up the slack in leading global trade.

"We have noticed that protectionist tendencies have begun to emerge," Peru's President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski said in an opening speech. "To anyone who wants to propose protectionism I suggest that you read the history books about the 1930s."

U.S. President Barack Obama, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin are due to attend the summit that brings together leaders whose economies represent 57 percent of global gross domestic product.

While campaigning for the presidential election which he won, Trump labeled the TPP "a disaster" and called for curbs on immigration. His isolationist stance echoed sentiments in Britain, which voted in June to quit the European Union.

Though Obama championed the TPP, his administration has now stopped trying to win congressional approval for the deal that was signed by 12 economies in the Americas and Asia-Pacific, but excluded China. Without U.S. approval the agreement as currently negotiated cannot come to fruition.

But Alan Bollard, the APEC secretariat's executive director, said it was premature to write the TPP off, though he expected it to be "put on the shelf" temporarily.

"I think at the minute they will sit on it and wait and see what the new U.S. administration looks like after a year or a couple of years," Bollard said.

ROLE OF CHINA

China's Xi is expected to sell an alternate vision for regional trade by promoting the Beijing-backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which as it stands excludes the Americas.

"We see people around the table here right now talking about if the TPP does not move forward then they're going to have to put their eggs in the RCEP basket," U.S. trade representative Michael Froman told Reuters.

Sun Xiao from China's Chamber of International Commerce blamed unequal distribution of free trade's benefits for rising protectionism, and suggested it would be different under Chinese leadership.

"If there was a bigger role for China we would promote the principle of joint participation and shared benefits to ensure free trade arrangements can benefit all," he said.

Summit host Peru, one of the world's most open economies, has already said it would like to join the Beijing-backed trade pact.

Others like Japan have expressed interest in moving forward with some sort of regional trade pact without the United States, Peruvian Vice President Mercedes Araoz said.

"We probably will have several paths we could take, always with the commitment of having a free trade agreement in the Asia-Pacific region," Araoz told journalists.

Australia's Trade Minister Steve Ciobo said he hoped negotiations on TPP would continue, but in the meantime believed the Chinese-led agreement presented a big opportunity.

"If we are able to successfully land it over the coming months or the year ahead it would create again a terrific opportunity for Australian businesses to export through a common set of rules across the region," he told Australian Broadcasting Corp radio.

The world would need to wait and see what happened with a Trump presidency and Brexit but customers accustomed to enjoying the fruits of free trade were unlikely to support the effects of increased barriers, said Scott Price, Chief Administrative Officer of Wal-Mart International.

"The fact is that moms in Minnesota are still going to want blueberries in January, that your average consumer in England is still going to want the full assortment of products that they've been used to, and I have confidence that it will work out in a way that is practical and pragmatic."

(Reporting by Rosalba O'Brien, Teresa Cespedes, Caroline Stauffer, Ursula Scollo and Mitra Taj in Lima, Additional reporting by Jamie Freed in Sydney; Writing by Caroline Stauffer and Rosalba O'Brien; Editing by Meredith Mazzilli and Alistair Bell)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pacific-rim-leaders-debate-future-trade-post-trump-080340740--sector.html
 
Fortunately, Hillary didn't win. She only wanted to pander her voters during the election, but she would pass the TPP after getting elected.

Obama, Hillary, and all the American ruling elites want the TPP to undermine China's influence in the global stage.

Exactly.

I still don't understand why many Chinese think Trump is bad for China.

Trump is the American version of Putin. A nationalist. Bush, Obama and Hillary are globalists. If Hillary won, China would face massive problems because she would do everything to hurt China using trade pacts, military alliances, etc.

The American ruling elites hate Trump for a reason. They don't control him.
 
Exactly.

I still don't understand why many Chinese think Trump is bad for China.

Trump is the American version of Putin. A nationalist. Bush, Obama and Hillary are globalists. If Hillary won, China would face massive problems because she would do everything to hurt China using trade pacts, military alliances, etc.

The American ruling elites hate Trump for a reason. They don't control him.

The Sino-American battle for hegemony is inevitable, no matter it is Trump or Hillary.

But Trump is an easier pick for us.
 
Yep, no more so-called US soft power leverage against China that the democrats and ordinary republicans were championing for.

When it comes to the hard power, China is not afraid of anyone.

I think this election cycle, Wikileaks revelations and Trump's own attacks on the very system of the US regime has exposed a lot for the rest of the world not be fooled much by the MSM created image of the US.

The day the US no longer generates any tangibles, its alliance system will expose how a paper tower structure it was. Duterte won't be the first and the only.
 
I think this election cycle, Wikileaks revelations and Trump's own attacks on the very system of the US regime has exposed a lot for the rest of the world not be fooled much by the MSM created image of the US.

The day the US no longer generates any tangibles, its alliance system will expose how a paper tower structure it was. Duterte won't be the first and the only.

Trump already got tamed by the establishment, so TPP will soon come back under a different name.

But fortunately, Trump's victory and previous campaign promises have created a rift for China, so it was an opportunity for China to sneak into the rift by signing the RCEP before it becomes closed.
 

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