Pakistan Navy issues Naval & Coastal Warnings for possible exercises

[The Deterrent]

In the immediate aftermath of the 25th February strike of Indian Air Force at an alleged target in Pakistan, PN issued TWO separate Naval and Coastal warnings. The warnings are meant to enforce naval and airspace enclosures during the month of March 2019, in the regions shown below. Both warnings (or securites) were issued on 25th February 2019 at 1500 UTC (2000 PST), more than 16 hours after the IAF strike.

Securite 022 pertains to Naval activity in the Arabian Sea, whereas Securite 023 pertains to possible Air Force or Air Defence activity at the Sonmiani Army proof ranges. At this point, it can be presumed that these warnings have been issued for the sole purpose of exercises, most probably as means to demonstrate operational readiness capabilities.

https://www.paknavy.gov.pk/coastal/20190225SEC 022.txt

https://www.paknavy.gov.pk/coastal/20190225SEC 023.txt

Note: Kindly refrain from unnecessary sensationalism, jingoism and war-mongering. Exercises like these are held by all major military powers when faced by the threat of an armed conflict. Therefore they should not be perceived as a move to escalate tensions, rather the protocol to be adopted in the present situation.

Also, since the India-Pakistan tensions over Pulwama/Balakot/Rajouri events appear to be de-escalating, these warnings MAY no longer be in effect and might be cancelled soon.

 

[Jinn Baba]

"Surface and anti aircraft live firing" and "depth charge firing". Sounds like your average military exercise, but still hoping for some new weapon to also be tested

 

[Cool_Soldier]

Some practice to defend territory.

 

[The Deterrent]

An IN submarine was detected on 04 March 2019, 65km away from the safety enclosure enforced by the Pakistan Navy. The enclosure was supposed to be enforced on 01, 04-08, 11-15, 18-22 and 25-29 March 2019 for conducting Naval Exercises. A screen grab of the IR feed of the PN P-3C Orion aircraft (which probably detected the submarine) can be seen below.

Based on the information contained in the roughly 40 second long video of the IR camera feed, the location and course of the PN P-3C Orion and the IN submarine can be mapped, as shown below. It appears that the IN submarine was on a south-western course (240 degrees) when a PN P-3C approached from the north-west (160 degrees). The PN aircraft passed within 0.62NM (1.15km) of the IN submarine.

 

[Cool_Soldier]

Was it newly commissioned scorpion Sub in IN?

 

[Cobra Arbok]

Very helpful @The Deterrent based on the info you provided and other available sources, it looks like the sub was monitoring the naval drills, and was probably testing the Pak Navy's response. Perhaps it was also sending a statement by operating so close to the PN safety enclosure.

With that being said, I think some are overhyping this incident. Pakistan would not be justified in attacking the sub, because it was technically in international waters. Doing so would have escalated a waning conflict to a level at which Pakistan is in no way ready or willing to engage at the moment.