BanglaBhoot
RETIRED TTA
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- Apr 8, 2007
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Now that several weeks have passed since the national elections there are several clear trends in the AL agenda that could ignite serious opposition and which should be considered in the wider context of national interest and security (see my article ‘A Nationalist Agenda for Bangladesh’. The following list is the most serious and obvious provocations of the AL thus far –
1. Creation of a regional taskforce with tactical operations capabilities and extra-territorial functions could threaten the internal stability of the country and make it a target for insurgents and terrorists who had until now posed no threat to Bangladesh’s interests. The notion of foreign forces (particularly Indian) on Bangladesh soil will be viewed with intense aversion by the public and could give rise to strong and violent opposition. This proposal will also be viewed with intense suspicion around the region and increase tensions in South Asia.
2. Massive vote rigging, violence and intimidation during Upazilla elections demonstrating an undemocratic state of mind and a deliberate attempt to weaken local government.
3. Transit facilities without any prospect for wider regional involvement and cooperation (i.e. China, Nepal and Bhutan) or proper safeguards of our sovereignty and independence.
4. Reversion to the 1972 constitution with removal of Islam and a return to ‘Bengali’ as our national identity. This last had originally sparked the CHT insurgency which was only countered after President Ziaur Rahman amended the constitution and made us Bangladeshis which is a concept based on territoriality rather than ethnicity clearly separating us culturally and politically from West Bengal and India.
5. Attempts to repeal the 5th Amendment of the constitution which had removed the highly unpopular BKSAL governance system established by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The 5th amendment had also legitimized the proclamations and proclamations orders issued during the martial law regime of President Ziaur Rahman and which also ratified all actions of the Martial Law authorities during that period.
6. Failure to fulfill election pledges of Tk. 10 per kilogram rice, free fertilizer and employment for a member of every family in Bangladesh. This will become harder to achieve as another global food crisis is predicted for end of 2009 and which will extend well into 2010.
7. Reopening of events during the 2 year interim government of Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed especially possible investigation of the role of DGFI and the armed forces. There is also likelihood of interference in the military rendering it politicized, weak and dysfunctional. This process appears to have already begun under Gen. Moin U. Ahmed and will probably increase if he is granted a further extension for ‘services rendered’.
8. Increase in criminality and particularly extortion of business enterprises. There has also been intimidation and brow-beating of business organizations and bodies to follow the government line on policy matters which indicates a move away from free-markets and capitalism. While restraining the natural inclination of business to pursue increased profits in time of national emergency or economic crisis can be justified this could under the AL government ultimately take the form of scapegoating the entire business community for the failures of government. This will probably become inevitable if the global financial crisis takes a heavy toll in Bangladesh without proper and effective measures and safety-nets being put in place due to an incompetent and insensitive administration.
9 Campus violence that will gradually hamper our educational and future potential to compete on a global scale.
10. Sidelining of opposition in parliament through controversial seating arrangements and censoring of debates as broadcast on BTV. Harassment of opposition party workers has already begun on a massive scale.
11. Return to dynastic politics as members of the Sheikh’s family are exerting immense influence but without the responsibility or accountability associated with their power which is exercised in a largely unofficial capacity.
12. War Crimes Trials which is probably a ruse to distract from the above failures and policies as any case will have to overcome the amnesty given by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and the tripartite agreement between India, Pakistan and Bangladesh on the exchange of prisoners. This is also an attempt in conjunction with points 4 and 5 to undermine religion based politics in Bangladesh. This will probably have the effect of promoting extremism and radicalism by pushing Islamic parties underground and could pose a threat to democracy and also the stability of the country.
While many of the above proposals and acts are not official policy of the AL government the party being largely a monolithic entity and also ideologically quite rigid it is entirely unlikely any initiative could proceed without the tacit approval of the leadership hierarchy. While individually the above proposals and acts may appear innocuous when taken together they signal a reassertion of the undemocratic and autocratic nature of the Awami League and an overweening dependence on India. Some of the proposals and policy initiatives listed above have the potential to spark a hostile and violent reaction without combination with other issues and these should be identified and firmly opposed at the outset.
The question remains as to whether the BNP alliance can capitalize on AL difficulties and its glaring failures. While the BNP has taken steps to reorganize itself from the grassroots level the same stale leaders and advisors remain in their positions. Those who brought the BNP to its present debacle in the national elections still hold positions of influence within the party and unless they are removed with utmost ruthlessness and haste the party is likely to become another Muslim League with ever decreasing returns in elections. It is important that if the nationalist agenda is to survive in Bangladesh the BNP has to remodel and refashion itself and become more democratized and responsive to the needs of the people and country. The only other alternative is for a completely new party to emerge but this seems very unlikely under present conditions and circumstances. This is not to say that this could not happen especially if the BNP continues to advocate meaningless policies such as impeachment of the president or some such similar nonsense. The main problem for the BNP is that it is a party without an ideology and in its place opportunism and greed has become qualifications for party membership. It is no longer enough that it is the party that stands against the AL it must be the party that stands for something. Unfortunately the party lacks the intellectual depth or analytical skills to carry out the necessary internal restructuring. To rectify this deficiency the party has to push forward an aggressive agenda to weed out the useless and incompetent from amongst its ranks and to establish a new dynamic leadership structure that can meet the challenges of the 21st century.
1. Creation of a regional taskforce with tactical operations capabilities and extra-territorial functions could threaten the internal stability of the country and make it a target for insurgents and terrorists who had until now posed no threat to Bangladesh’s interests. The notion of foreign forces (particularly Indian) on Bangladesh soil will be viewed with intense aversion by the public and could give rise to strong and violent opposition. This proposal will also be viewed with intense suspicion around the region and increase tensions in South Asia.
2. Massive vote rigging, violence and intimidation during Upazilla elections demonstrating an undemocratic state of mind and a deliberate attempt to weaken local government.
3. Transit facilities without any prospect for wider regional involvement and cooperation (i.e. China, Nepal and Bhutan) or proper safeguards of our sovereignty and independence.
4. Reversion to the 1972 constitution with removal of Islam and a return to ‘Bengali’ as our national identity. This last had originally sparked the CHT insurgency which was only countered after President Ziaur Rahman amended the constitution and made us Bangladeshis which is a concept based on territoriality rather than ethnicity clearly separating us culturally and politically from West Bengal and India.
5. Attempts to repeal the 5th Amendment of the constitution which had removed the highly unpopular BKSAL governance system established by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The 5th amendment had also legitimized the proclamations and proclamations orders issued during the martial law regime of President Ziaur Rahman and which also ratified all actions of the Martial Law authorities during that period.
6. Failure to fulfill election pledges of Tk. 10 per kilogram rice, free fertilizer and employment for a member of every family in Bangladesh. This will become harder to achieve as another global food crisis is predicted for end of 2009 and which will extend well into 2010.
7. Reopening of events during the 2 year interim government of Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed especially possible investigation of the role of DGFI and the armed forces. There is also likelihood of interference in the military rendering it politicized, weak and dysfunctional. This process appears to have already begun under Gen. Moin U. Ahmed and will probably increase if he is granted a further extension for ‘services rendered’.
8. Increase in criminality and particularly extortion of business enterprises. There has also been intimidation and brow-beating of business organizations and bodies to follow the government line on policy matters which indicates a move away from free-markets and capitalism. While restraining the natural inclination of business to pursue increased profits in time of national emergency or economic crisis can be justified this could under the AL government ultimately take the form of scapegoating the entire business community for the failures of government. This will probably become inevitable if the global financial crisis takes a heavy toll in Bangladesh without proper and effective measures and safety-nets being put in place due to an incompetent and insensitive administration.
9 Campus violence that will gradually hamper our educational and future potential to compete on a global scale.
10. Sidelining of opposition in parliament through controversial seating arrangements and censoring of debates as broadcast on BTV. Harassment of opposition party workers has already begun on a massive scale.
11. Return to dynastic politics as members of the Sheikh’s family are exerting immense influence but without the responsibility or accountability associated with their power which is exercised in a largely unofficial capacity.
12. War Crimes Trials which is probably a ruse to distract from the above failures and policies as any case will have to overcome the amnesty given by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and the tripartite agreement between India, Pakistan and Bangladesh on the exchange of prisoners. This is also an attempt in conjunction with points 4 and 5 to undermine religion based politics in Bangladesh. This will probably have the effect of promoting extremism and radicalism by pushing Islamic parties underground and could pose a threat to democracy and also the stability of the country.
While many of the above proposals and acts are not official policy of the AL government the party being largely a monolithic entity and also ideologically quite rigid it is entirely unlikely any initiative could proceed without the tacit approval of the leadership hierarchy. While individually the above proposals and acts may appear innocuous when taken together they signal a reassertion of the undemocratic and autocratic nature of the Awami League and an overweening dependence on India. Some of the proposals and policy initiatives listed above have the potential to spark a hostile and violent reaction without combination with other issues and these should be identified and firmly opposed at the outset.
The question remains as to whether the BNP alliance can capitalize on AL difficulties and its glaring failures. While the BNP has taken steps to reorganize itself from the grassroots level the same stale leaders and advisors remain in their positions. Those who brought the BNP to its present debacle in the national elections still hold positions of influence within the party and unless they are removed with utmost ruthlessness and haste the party is likely to become another Muslim League with ever decreasing returns in elections. It is important that if the nationalist agenda is to survive in Bangladesh the BNP has to remodel and refashion itself and become more democratized and responsive to the needs of the people and country. The only other alternative is for a completely new party to emerge but this seems very unlikely under present conditions and circumstances. This is not to say that this could not happen especially if the BNP continues to advocate meaningless policies such as impeachment of the president or some such similar nonsense. The main problem for the BNP is that it is a party without an ideology and in its place opportunism and greed has become qualifications for party membership. It is no longer enough that it is the party that stands against the AL it must be the party that stands for something. Unfortunately the party lacks the intellectual depth or analytical skills to carry out the necessary internal restructuring. To rectify this deficiency the party has to push forward an aggressive agenda to weed out the useless and incompetent from amongst its ranks and to establish a new dynamic leadership structure that can meet the challenges of the 21st century.
