What is India's true goal in Balochistan long-term?

[Erieye]

What is India's true goal in Balochistan long-term?

In my opinion, the Indian game plan with Balochistan primarily is to keep an insurgency sustained for as long as possible with the goal of destablising and preventing any prospect of economic development, infrastructural development, FDI and internal investment, bad reputation, and no peace. You can't even safely play cricket without the risk of terrorism being brought up. Pakistan is essentially being strangled by India, and struggling to fight its way out.

Anything more than the above, like seccession, to them I think is simply a bonus but not a primary goal, to genuinely break it would require more severe efforts in other domains. For example they have begun trying to raise it to a diplomatic and social level given the recent documentaries which could point towards this.

We must admit they have been very successful with the above. Because they have actual functioning national instituions with competent, skilled, qualified and loyal individuals. They prioritise meritocracy with a strong system of accountability.

One method to achieve their seccessionist goals is to incite a nation-wide civil war, then India initates a war against the army, whole of Pakistan would cease to exist at the end of it. The only real thing which prevents this from happening is the existence of our nuclear weapons arsenal, I think India will 100% try to denuclearise Pakistan if it seeks to do this and it could be coming soon.

We can expect in the coming near years more co-operation between India and Afghanistan too, using TTP or perhaps a newly branded movement. The future does not look good.

@Bleek @blain2 @Sifar zero @Signalian @PanzerKiel @KaiserX @Olympus81 @villageidiot @Areesh @Sayfullah @Mirzali Khan @Samurai_assassin @Muhammad Saftain Anjum @ghazi52 @HAIDER @AlKardai @chinasun @Abid123 @CivilianSupremacy @Ali_14 @FuturePAF

 

[TheSolution]

For genuine secessionist goals to be achieved, it would require military intervention to hold back the Pakistan Army in any case to allow separatists to maneuver and make their move more easily/successfully, as seen in Bangladesh.

With India's massive conventional gap, it would be easy for India to overwhelm Pakistan to achieve this. Especially by routing the PAF towards India's focus meaning less focus on separatists.

So you're right, the true key here is the nuclear weapon deterrence where if the situation becomes too unmanageable, Pakistan can threaten nuclear retaliation, allowing itself to take control of the internal situation once India backs off.

So 100% our nuclear weapons are one of the main keys for safeguarding Pakistan's national interests and retaining its territorial integrity. They must never be surrendered no matter what.

 

[Samurai_assassin]

I'm sure a few huge bomb blasts will occure if they claimed Independence.
Wouldnt be surprised to see dead indians amongst them.

 

[STREANH]

Logically speaking, how is it possible for India to sponsor an insurgency so far away and that too without any borders to smuggle weapons and supplies? You cannot blame India for everything bad happening in your country.

Balochistan looks like the wild west and it is your country that has kept it that way. You can find guns sold like candy in Pakistan, so you don't really need anything else to sustain an insurgency.

 

[Samurai_assassin]

Logically speaking, how is it possible for India to sponsor an insurgency so far away and that too without any borders to smuggle weapons and supplies? You cannot blame India for everything bad happening in your country.

Balochistan looks like the wild west and it is your country that has kept it that way. You can find guns sold like candy in Pakistan, so you don't really need anything else to sustain an insurgency.

Baloch tribal elders (Sardars) are to blame who have the ultimate power. Their backwardness have deprived their own people, kept them as nomad gypsies.

 

[AlKardai]

There has to be an aspect of the military being held back in the possible denuclearisation of Pakistan.

I doubt true denuclearisation will occur, however, because the military will never hold back in the event of an incursion. The only possible way it could occur, is if an invasion occurred from all sides and the military was simply overwhelmed

Your idea of the Indian game plan in Balochistan is quite Plausible, and it is likely that the games in KPK will be stepped up simultaneously with the Baloch ones, especially after the much-publicised unification of TTP and BLA

Looks like we're staring down the business end of the endgame, and it came faster than we thought it would.

 

[Samurai_assassin]

Will iran allow Pak Balochestan to seperate? They have a huge stake in the future of the region especially with their own troubles with their Sunni dominated Balochestan Sistan province.

 

[Erieye]

Will iran allow Pak Balochestan to seperate? They have a huge stake in the future of the region especially with their own troubles with their Sunni dominated Balochestan Sistan province.

Iran wouldn't be able to stop it anyway, plus remember the primary goal at the moment is just complete destablisation, no investment internally or from foreigners, no peace, no infrastructure, not even cricket. Complete chaos.

This is currently what Iran doesn't mind and probably rerouted its own Baloch separatists towards.

For actual separation read what the person above replied, it requires military intervention to suppress the Pakistan military.

There has to be an aspect of the military being held back in the possible denuclearisation of Pakistan.

I doubt true denuclearisation will occur, however, because the military will never hold back in the event of an incursion. The only possible way it could occur, is if an invasion occurred from all sides and the military was simply overwhelmed

Your idea of the Indian game plan in Balochistan is quite Plausible, and it is likely that the games in KPK will be stepped up simultaneously with the Baloch ones, especially after the much-publicised unification of TTP and BLA

Looks like we're staring down the business end of the endgame, and it came faster than we thought it would.

The formal conventional threat largely remains to be India - in the further future it could potentially be Afghanistan also. But Afghanistan will continue to help in the non-convential way through terrorism currently.

Internally it is separatist groups like BLA/TTP.

Nuclear weapon presence helps in exactly what you said above - being overwhelmed by conventional Indian forces which could jeoprodise territorial integrity, you utilise the nuclear weapon detterence. India won't risk its own country for it.

 

[Samurai_assassin]

Iran wouldn't be able to stop it anyway, plus remember the primary goal at the moment is just complete destablisation, no investment internally or from foreigners, no peace, no infrastructure, not even cricket. Complete chaos.

This is currently what Iran doesn't mind and probably rerouted its own Baloch separatists towards.

For actual separation read what the person above replied, it requires military intervention to suppress the Pakistan military.


The formal convention threat largely remains to be India - in the further future it could potentially be Afghanistan also. But Afghanistan will continue to help in the non-convential way through terrorism.

Internally it is separatist groups like BLA/TTP.

Nuclear weapon presence helps in exactly what you said above - being overwhelmed by conventional Indian forces which could jeoprodise territorial integrity.

But this nonsense has been going on for decades now. Surly it would have parted ways but still hasn't.

 

[Erieye]

But this nonsense has been going on for decades now. Surly it would have parted ways but still hasn't.

Because as I said, current goal = keep an insurgency going for as long as possible. To achieve a true Bangladesh type scenario India would have to militarily intervene to prevent the army from handling separatist groups efficiently, giving them more room to operate.

the longer the insurgency runs, the further back pakistan's economic/infrastructural/FDI development remains. No peace, no development or investment.

The terror networks are very sophisticated with propoganda being spewed, then recruitment, in various sectors.

 

[my2cents]

What is India's true goal in Balochistan long-term?

In my opinion, the Indian game plan with Balochistan primarily is to keep an insurgency sustained for as long as possible with the goal of destablising and preventing any prospect of economic development, infrastructural development, FDI and internal investment, bad reputation, and no peace. You can't even safely play cricket without the risk of terrorism being brought up. Pakistan is essentially being strangled by India, and struggling to fight its way out.

Anything more than the above, like seccession, to them I think is simply a bonus but not a primary goal, to genuinely break it would require more severe efforts in other domains. For example they have begun trying to raise it to a diplomatic and social level given the recent documentaries which could point towards this.

We must admit they have been very successful with the above. Because they have actual functioning national instituions with competent, skilled, qualified and loyal individuals. They prioritise meritocracy with a strong system of accountability.

One method to achieve their seccessionist goals is to incite a nation-wide civil war, then India initates a war against the army, whole of Pakistan would cease to exist at the end of it. The only real thing which prevents this from happening is the existence of our nuclear weapons arsenal, I think India will 100% try to denuclearise Pakistan if it seeks to do this and it could be coming soon.

We can expect in the coming near years more co-operation between India and Afghanistan too, using TTP or perhaps a newly branded movement. The future does not look good.

@Bleek @blain2 @Sifar zero @Signalian @PanzerKiel @KaiserX @Olympus81 @villageidiot @Areesh @Sayfullah @Mirzali Khan @Samurai_assassin @Muhammad Saftain Anjum @ghazi52 @HAIDER @AlKardai @chinasun @Abid123 @CivilianSupremacy @Ali_14 @FuturePAF

You are giving too much credit to India . India has too much to lose (our reputation) for instigating insurgency in Balochistan. All we do is give lip service-- which doesn't cost much. Your country likes to divert your attention from daily troubles you face to a boogieman who is out there to get you.

Our 100% priority is to develop our country but it is not possible with neighbors who have started four wars. Imagine if you lived in peace and traded like euro zone. We would be one prosperous south Asia.

 

[Samurai_assassin]

Because as I said, current goal = keep an insurgency going for as long as possible.

the longer the insurgency runs, the further back pakistan's economic/infrastructural/FDI development remains. No peace, no development or investment.

The terror networks are very sophisticated with propoganda being spewed, then recruitment, in various sectors.

Again Pakistan has been through similer situation if not worse. 2008 the height of the terrorst bombings occurred every other day, insurgency in Balochestan, war in Swat and 2010 floods.
It was never ending. Things got better because the millitery took action.
under Bajwa the army became embroiled in politics and couldn't give a rats *** about the increasing instability.

You are giving too much credit to India . India has too much to lose (our reputation) for instigating insurgency in Balochistan. All we do is give lip service-- which doesn't cost much. Your country likes to divert your attention from daily troubles you face to a boogieman who is out there to get you.

Our 100% priority is to develop our country but it is not possible with neighbors who have started four wars. Imagine if you lived in peace and traded like euro zone. We would be one prosperous south Asia.

Do you consider india to be an angel?

 

[Erieye]

You are giving too much credit to India . India has too much to lose (our reputation) for instigating insurgency in Balochistan. All we do is give lip service-- which doesn't cost much. Your country likes to divert your attention from daily troubles you face to a boogieman who is out there to get you.

Our 100% priority is to develop our country but it is not possible with neighbors who have started four wars. Imagine if you lived in peace and traded like euro zone. We would be one prosperous south Asia.

This thread is not to discuss with Indians whether they are involved or not, or to what extent. Don't derrail the thread.

India doesn't care about its reputation so lets cut this bullshit clown act, if you did you wouldn't be openly abusing and denying the rights to muslims within your country as well as in Kashmir.

neither would your prime minister be Modi.

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[AgnosticIndian]

What good will nuclear weapons do in a civil war? Will you nuke Quetta or Peshawar or Karachi or Hyderabad or what? Maybe if Pakistan threatens to shoot itself and others up in a nuclear murder-suicide, India and the UN will send peacekeepers to prevent the breakup. Is that the plan?

Take solace in the fact that Pakistan can't cease to exist even if all other provinces leave. Punjab can call itself Pakistan as long as it wants. "Azad Kashmir" and Gilgit Baltistan will likely also be there to give company.

A proper civil war can't happen without a mutiny in the army. Given the primarily Punjabi nature of the army, that ain't happening.

 

[Erieye]

What good will nuclear weapons do in a civil war? Will you nuke Quetta or Peshawar or Karachi or Hyderabad or what?

Nuclear weapons allow to bridge the conventional gap between Pakistan and Indian militaries.

If the Indian miltiary begins to pose a risk where Pakistan Army struggles internally to quell any strife, because it is focused on a conflict with India, then it will be raised to the nuclear level to get them to back off.