Yes, Marine Le Pen could become French president. Here's how

[BHarwana]

Who dat?

A European version of Trump

 

[Nilgiri]

A European version of Trump

If you mean Geert, he's dutch not portuguese.

 

[BHarwana]

If you mean Geert, he's dutch not portuguese.

Sorry missed that, will edit. Thanks for pointing that out.

 

[EgyptianAmerican]

With the polls narrowing and one of her main rivals embroiled in scandal, experts and politicians no longer dismiss the idea of Marine Le Pen becoming French president in May. And there are certain scenarios that could boost her chances of victory.
At the headquarters of her National Front (FN) party in Nanterre outside Paris, officials believe the same forces that led to the Brexit vote in Britain and Donald Trump's victory in the United States could carry Le Pen to power.

Even some of her rivals concede a victory for the far-right firebrand is possible.

"I think Madame Le Pen could be elected," former conservative prime minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin said this month.

Pollsters now note that although Le Pen is not currently forecast to win the all-important second round showdown on May 7th, she has whittled down the projected gap between herself and her main challengers.

While it still remains unlikely that Le Pen will win the keys to the Elysée Palace in May, no one now dares rule out the possibility.

“Six months ago the possibility of her winning was zero,” Bruno Cautres, French political analyst from the Cevipof think tank told The Local. “But today we cannot say that.”

So what are the scenarios that could lead to the once unthinkable becoming reality?

“More scandals,” says Cautres.

It’s clear that while the French public might have been fairly forgiving towards political scandals in the past, they are far less tolerant of politicians' wayward behaviour now.

As we know already, Fillon’s popularity has been severely hit by the Penelopegate scandal that saw his wife paid hundreds of thousands of euros to be his parliamentary assistant, where it is alleged she didn’t really do much to earn the vast sums of money.

“If other candidates like Emmanuel Macron or the Socialist Benoit Hamon are hit by scandal it will play into Le Pen’s hands,” said Cautres.

(AFP)

Of course Le Pen is also caught up in an expenses scandal and faces accusations she has misused European Parliament funds. Yet unlike Fillon, who once led the race, the allegations have not damaged her support.

“Le Pen just argues it’s all part of a conspiracy against the party,” said Cautres, and her voters appear to take her side.

The other scenario that will play into Le Pen’s hands is if the questions of security and identity are thrown back to the top of the agenda by more rioting in the suburbs, or if France is targeted by another terrorist attack.

It’s no coincidence that Le Pen’s recent rise in the polls came during the violence that broke out in several suburbs of Paris following the alleged police rape of a youth worker named Théo.

Le Pen also saw a similar jump in the polls following the Paris terror attacks of November 2015.

She has proved more than any other candidate that she can capitalize on French people's concerns about radical Islam, migration, border controls and national security.

“People vote on what is most important to them at the time of the ballot,” Nonna Mayer, a political scientist and a specialist on the far right from Sciences Po, told The Local.

This is something a terrorist group like Isis may seek to exploit in the same way the Madrid 2003 terrorist attack was seen as helping influence the outcome of Spain's national election just three days later.

“We can imagine the terrorists would try to create a climate of insecurity to destabilize the population,” said Cautres.

And what about the Russians?

Macron's own team have reacted angrily recently to what they say are attempts by Russia to scupper their candidate's chances of victory in the same way they were accused of undermining Hilary Clinton's campaign to boost the chances of Donald Trump.

Both Fillon and Le Pen are seen as pro-Putin candidates. But if Fillon's standing continues to fall there are fears Moscow will step up its smear campaign against Macron, who appears to be the National Front leader's most likely second round candidate.

So whether it’s unexpected scandals, violence in the suburbs, terrorist attacks, or meddling from Moscow, Bruno Jeanbart, from polling agency Opinion Way, told The Local the 2017 presidential election in France appears to be more “at the mercy of outside events” than previous elections.

(Police patrol a suburb in Paris after riots. AFP)

Preferred second round opponent

Even without any ‘outside event’ influencing the election result, there are varying views on which of Le Pen’s likely second round opponents would give her the best chance of victory.

On the one hand, some experts believe the 39-year-old former banker Macron would be her most favoured opponent.

Jerome Sainte-Marie of Polling Vox told AFP: "Against Macron, she has a chance of winning." And Opinion Way’s Jeanbart says Fillon would be a far tougher candidate for Le Pen because the Catholic and social conservative Republicains candidate would garner a section of Le Pen's core vote.

“If she’s against Macron or Hamon, Le Pen has a better chance of pulling in the vote from the right,” says Jeanbart, who adds that if Fillon’s voters feel aggrieved that their candidate lost due to the scandal then there is a chance those votes will go to Le Pen.

Even Macron’s supporters admit that it’s difficult for the smartly-suited philosophy graduate to appeal to those living in the deprived suburbs.

“They tell us 'We will no longer block Le Pen if it means continuing on with politics as usual for another 15 years.'” Mehdi Guillo, a 23-year-old Macron campaigner told AFP. "They're tempted to let the wolf into the coop," he said.

(Pro-Europe Macron in the middle of pro-Russia Le Pen and Fillon. AFP)

Macron has tried to appeal to working class voters, campaigning on a promise of boosting their spending power and cutting their tax bills as well as fighting against unemployment.

He will have to hope that if he makes it to the second round against Le Pen, it is the economy, an area she is considered weak on, that is the top concern of the French public and not security and immigration.

And what if Fillon is Le Pen's opponent?

Cevipof’s Cautres believes Le Pen would actually stand a better chance in the second round against the scandal-hit conservative.

He believes the usual “front republicain”, a term used to describe the coming together of left and right voters to vote for the candidate who is standing against the National Front, will be harder to mobilize if Fillon is Le Pen’s opponent.

“It will be difficult for Fillon to incarnate the Republican Front,” he said.

Cautres believes Le Pen has a better chance of mobilizing the working classes who will be put off not just by the fake jobs scandal but also by Thatcherite Fillon's plan to implement harsh austerity including €100 billion of cuts and the shedding of half a million public sector jobs.

It may just be that many on the left decide they cannot bring themselves to even vote at all if it’s a choice between Fillon and Le Pen, in the same way many American voters decided they could not back Clinton.

The same could be said if the leftist Benoit Hamon makes it to the second round, with those on the right who aren’t tempted by Le Pen simply preferring to stay at home on election day rather than vote for a candidate who wants to bring in universal basic income.

Any sign of voter apathy towards mainstream candidates will have Le Pen rubbing her hands with glee as voter turnout is seen as favouring the far right candidate.

But making predictions in a highly unpredictable election race still appears futile, with a little less than two months to go.

The National Front’s defeat in the second round of the regional elections in December 2015, despite strong first round results, just weeks after the devastating Paris terror attacks, shows that while she is knocking the door of the Elysée, the chances of her getting in are still low.

"As things stand, where are the votes necessary to move up from 25 percent or even 30 percent to 50 percent?," said researcher Joel Gombin, a specialist on the FN, who believes Le Pen is still some way short of victory.

But two months is a long time in French politics.

http://www.thelocal.fr/20170227/yes-marine-le-pen-could-become-french-president-heres-how

@Philia @LA se Karachi

Doesn't she hate all Muslims and North Africans? I thought she would get the vast majority of votes from the french purely for her policy on Muslims.

 

[HannibalBarca]

Doesn't she hate all Muslims and North Africans? I thought she would get the vast majority of votes from the french purely for her policy on Muslims.

Well not all French ppl hate muslims... and not all his voters are racists, even though a good part is. Her speech changed since her father was in, to make her appear more "normal and less racist" and it worked among few, but the roots are the same... it's rotten. A rotten Tree stay up, but never blossom again...

 

[EgyptianAmerican]

Well not all French ppl hate muslims

Really? Stop joking around Hannibal.



Anyway I hate the french, so whatever I don't really care.

 

[HannibalBarca]

Really? Stop joking around Hannibal.



Anyway I hate the french, so whatever I don't really care.

Rly a good minority hate, but it's not the majority. Politicians used this hate & fear to get more voters, and few sheeps follow, the number is growing, since if a politician can do it, then so do I. But thx God the very good majority do not hate, they may have few negative thought about it, but nothing more.

ps: Everywhere the bad and good coexist...

But if you that Every French may hate, whoever they are.. it will be Roms...

 

[Vergennes]

Doesn't she hate all Muslims and North Africans? I thought she would get the vast majority of votes from the french purely for her policy on Muslims.

FN voters were asked the main reasons why they voted for this party. Let's see what was their main concerns ;

Employment : 18,06%
Internal security : 17,18%
Immigration : 14,98%
Economy : 11,01%
Education : 11,01%
Fiscality (taxes etc.) : 9,69%
Social equalities : 9,25%
Transports : 8,81%

 

[Mage]

I'd vote Le Pen hehe....I think there has been enough socialism left leaning stuff by Hollande.....don't want to risk a Hollande 2.0 ...and I think Le Pen deserves a chance to prove herself.

I am in no way trying to influence the current fence-sitting vergennes here

But...Macron is a centrist?

Please don't get me wrong and don't take my words to heart. But the Le Pen in France and Greet in Netherlands both will lose and this is a confirmed report.

Geert Wilders might get highest votes....but in Netherlands there are so many parties...so chances of him forming a govt is very slim. He was actually a part of the govt under Rutte. But did terrible in the later election. He may not be able to form a govt as every other major party have stated that they won't work with him...but he might make things interesting i.e. forcing coalition between other parties even though they have major ideological difference.

These days it seems Angela Merkel may lose to Schulz in Germany. So months ago the concept of Merkel losing the chancellorship was unheard of. Btw...Merkel us actually center-right candidate.....Schulz on the other hand is a socialist and pro EU dude. And AfD might fail to get in the parliament again.

@ValerioAurelius

 

[BHarwana]

Geert Wilders might get highest votes....but in Netherlands there are so many parties...so chances of him forming a govt is very slim. He was actually a part of the govt under Rutte. But did terrible in the later election. He may not be able to form a govt as every other major party have stated that they won't work with him...but he might make things interesting i.e. forcing coalition between other parties even though they have major ideological difference.

These days it seems Angela Merkel may lose to Schulz in Germany. So months ago the concept of Merkel losing the chancellorship was unheard of. Btw...Merkel us actually center-right candidate.....Schulz on the other hand is a socialist and pro EU dude. And AfD might fail to get in the parliament again.

This all would have been true but the protests that sparked after trump won the election are changing people's opinion. the difficulties that are showing up after Brexit are also effecting the idea you are trying to display so this might not happen.

 

[Nilgiri]

But...Macron is a centrist?

Is he? My bad. I thought he was the socialist candidate....whoops (shows you how much attention I've been paying)

Then yeah I'll probably be the same as Vergennes, look at the all the final policies and go inni minni monni mo between him and femme horrible

 

[Mage]

@Vergennes can you tell us how did Macron and his new party gain popularity?

I mean his party founded in 2016 has no seat in the parliament(afaik) and he is doing better than the Socialist candidate and on par with the conservative candidate. Le Pen's popularity might be new but her party National Front has been in French politics for quite some time.

 

[Kambojaric]

Well not all French ppl hate muslims... and not all his voters are racists, even though a good part is. Her speech changed since her father was in, to make her appear more "normal and less racist" and it worked among few, but the roots are the same... it's rotten. A rotten Tree stay up, but never blossom again...

Its the same Europe over. The Swedish equivalent of this lot, Sverigedemokraterna was founded by a Nazi. Top members of this party sitting around in parliament go around calling people "nigger" (http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/article23670635.ab), and making fun of Jews and Muslims. (http://www.expressen.se/nyheter/har-skamtar-sjostedt-sd-grovt-om-judar/).
The difference is that now this racist bunch have seen that the mainstream parties are struggling to deal with issues like employment and job security, so they have jumped into the field wearing nice suits and claiming that immigrants are taking the jobs. Sensationalist media helps them further.

 

[HannibalBarca]

Its the same Europe over. The Swedish equivalent of this lot, Sverigedemokraterna was founded by a Nazi. Top members of this party sitting around in parliament go around calling people "nigger" (http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/article23670635.ab), and making fun of Jews and Muslims. (http://www.expressen.se/nyheter/har-skamtar-sjostedt-sd-grovt-om-judar/).
The difference is that now this racist bunch have seen that the mainstream parties are struggling to deal with issues like employment and job security, so they have jumped into the field wearing nice suits and claiming that immigrants are taking the jobs. Sensationalist media helps them further.

Yep. In the End if Europe do not have much job left... it's only bc of their high incomes, nothing less nothing more. And History will repeat itself over and over. One Shall Rise while the other fall. Cycle of life

 

[ValerioAurelius]

But...Macron is a centrist?


Geert Wilders might get highest votes....but in Netherlands there are so many parties...so chances of him forming a govt is very slim. He was actually a part of the govt under Rutte. But did terrible in the later election. He may not be able to form a govt as every other major party have stated that they won't work with him...but he might make things interesting i.e. forcing coalition between other parties even though they have major ideological difference.

These days it seems Angela Merkel may lose to Schulz in Germany. So months ago the concept of Merkel losing the chancellorship was unheard of. Btw...Merkel us actually center-right candidate.....Schulz on the other hand is a socialist and pro EU dude. And AfD might fail to get in the parliament again.

@ValerioAurelius

AfD might fail get in parliament? ha ha

They got 24% in federal elections in several states even ahead of Merkels CDU. Its already certain they will enter the parliament with roughly 10%.

The positive aspect for the rising far right in Europe is, that for evry far right politician one system politician loses his job.

In Italy the system parties are in complete chaos, because the far right moves through the elctions.

The goal is clear. Death to liberalism. Death to tolerance.

Tolerance is Weakness.