Why we have lost the race to China

[FaujHistorian]

Massive negligence in social development; Such as universal primary education, parameter where most of the communist/socialist states excelled and strangely a pathetic delusional education policy since the first five year planning in India, basic health care and nutrition sector, proper sanitation and drinking water for the vast number of under privileged, Lack of public accountability of administrative institutions, corruption, poor agricultural and industrial wages (which have in fact become stagnant for the last twenty odd years despite the economic reform of the 90's).

This is the reason why despite having an impressive record of per capita growth India performs worse than African and other south Asian states (even Nepal and Maldives) which have achieved enviable results in all those social indicators. will write in details if time permits.

Well stated.

However I must bring history into this. (hahha. Obviously history is part of my avatar).

Our region in particular, and the world in general had some huge odds stacked against them when it comes to Chinese "manufacturing abilities".

it is like a heart surgeon with 1000 operations on his experience. Trying competing with him as fresh out of college.


you go back 350 years and find the following:

1. Chinese people - strengths (industrial labor), never cared about learning another language like English.
2. Subcontinent India - being much more diverse had the following strengths based on region.
---- Bengal / South East (current day India): good in Maths, accountancy
---- North central (current day India): good in bureaucracy, courts, office support
---- NorthWest (mostly current day Pakistan): good in Law enforcement and army

One common strength was the speed at which pretty much all of the subcontinent adapted to English.

In post industrial world, China will continue playing to its strength of industrial capability and would leave the rest of the world in dust. There is no way India or any other country can compete with them.

So anyone including OP are deluding themselves when they even try to assume India can compete with China.

There is a way to reduce the gap though.

That is if Indian intellectuals realize that the first and foremost thing is to reduce the temperature in the region. Resolve outstanding issues immediately and thus conserve and divert energies to pro-development policies.


Respectfully yours.

Alhaj FH

Agreed! But only after Nawaz starts paying his taxes!! And that will never be!!

Gov revenues (aka taxes) in rupees are way overrated. They should be removed as soon as possible.
Gov revenues in dollars? Now that means something.

 

[RisingShiningSuperpower]

So anyone including OP are deluding themselves when they even try to assume India can compete with China.

I respectfully disagree.

India has the demographic dividend and the demographic dividend. These factors alone make India very competitive against any country. With Modi-ji's brilliant leadership, India can quickly reach her maximum potential and become a superpower by 2020.

Also, Modi-ji and his ministers are working hard to re-disover the blueprints to ancient Vedic technologies such as teleportation, fusion power, and anti-gravity machine. With these ancient secrets and knowledge, India will leave everyone in the dust technologically and economically.

 

[FaujHistorian]

I respectfully disagree.

India has the demographic dividend and the demographic dividend. These factors alone make India very competitive against any country. With Modi-ji's brilliant leadership, India can quickly reach her maximum potential and become a superpower by 2020.

Also, Modi-ji and his ministers are working hard to re-disover the blueprints to ancient Vedic technologies such as teleportation, fusion power, and anti-gravity machine. With these ancient secrets and knowledge, India will leave everyone in the dust technologically and economically.

Ok.

I was going to post a serious reply.

Then I saw " re-disover the blueprints to ancient Vedic technologies" then I said Oh $hit. you are so logical.

 

[Shotgunner51]

India has the demographic dividend and the demographic dividend. These factors alone make India very competitive against any country. With Modi-ji's brilliant leadership, India can quickly reach her maximum potential and become a superpower by 2020.

The currently low economic base is an undeniable fact, check post #36 for a quick summary of some KPI's. In addition to that, as a reflection on valuation of its macroscopic economy, note the rupee has been on a long term depreciation trend, over the past 10 years deflated by 30% vs dollar, 5.7% just over the past 12 months. What is arguable is only forecast, i.e. future, or potential as you put it.

Demographic dividend?

There are many data and analyses available on the web on demographics, say on literacy, education and health. Some key extracts from Thierry Geiger on 2014 World Economic Forum:

• "India has remained a largely informal and agricultural economy. Indeed, 90 per cent of its workers operate in the shadow economy; 47 per cent are active in agricultural activities."

• "We’ve seen very little progress [in India] when it comes to the basic drivers of competitiveness, such as infrastructure, health, education and the institutional framework,”

• “the successes India has had in IT and business process outsourcing (BPO) are encouraging, but not to the extent they can create tens of millions of jobs.”

• "India couldn’t leapfrog development if it wanted to: its workforce is poorly educated at best, and its physical and digital infrastructure is inadequate"

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/09/04/why-is-indias-relative-competitiveness-waning/​

 

[Irfan Baloch]

We are the biggest democracy.
We have the best university in Asia.
Our talents dominate silicon valley and NASA.
We have the best food.
We have the best leader, Modiji.
We have the best cricket teams.
We have the best highways.
We have the best medical system.

We have never lost the race. China is much worse than India.


Vedic medicine is the best medicine in the world!

sorry you missed out Healthcare and sanitation system from your list
looks like you are being modest here.

please dont brag too much otherwise people will troll you

 

[scorpionx]

Well stated.

However I must bring history into this. (hahha. Obviously history is part of my avatar).

Our region in particular, and the world in general had some huge odds stacked against them when it comes to Chinese "manufacturing abilities".

it is like a heart surgeon with 1000 operations on his experience. Trying competing with him as fresh out of college.


you go back 350 years and find the following:

1. Chinese people - strengths (industrial labor), never cared about learning another language like English.
2. Subcontinent India - being much more diverse had the following strengths based on region.
---- Bengal / South East (current day India): good in Maths, accountancy
---- North central (current day India): good in bureaucracy, courts, office support
---- NorthWest (mostly current day Pakistan): good in Law enforcement and army

One common strength was the speed at which pretty much all of the subcontinent adapted to English.

In post industrial world, China will continue playing to its strength of industrial capability and would leave the rest of the world in dust. There is no way India or any other country can compete with them.

So anyone including OP are deluding themselves when they even try to assume India can compete with China.

There is a way to reduce the gap though.

That is if Indian intellectuals realize that the first and foremost thing is to reduce the temperature in the region. Resolve outstanding issues immediately and thus conserve and divert energies to pro-development policies.


Respectfully yours.

Alhaj FH



Gov revenues (aka taxes) in rupees are way overrated. They should be removed as soon as possible.
Gov revenues in dollars? Now that means something.

Fauj Bhai, good to see you after such a long time. It's a pleasure meeting you again. I will give some data as on 2011 that will help to understand why India is still far far behind to become a major power, not even on a regional scale.

| GDP per capita, PPP: (Constant 2005 international $)
1. India: 3,203 2. Pakistan: 2,424 3. Bangladesh: 1,569 4. Sri Lanka: 4,929 5. China: 7,418

| Life expectancy
1. 65 2. 65 3. 69 4. 75 5. 73

|Infant mortality rate
1.47 2. 59 3. 37 4. 11 5. 13

|Under five mortality rate
1. 61 2.72 3. 46 4. 12 5. 15

| Maternal mortality Ratio
1.200 2.260 3. 240 4. 35 5. 37

|Access to improved sanitation:
1. 34 2. 48 3. 56 4. 92 5. 64

|Female literacy rate (15-24):
1. 74 2. 61 3. 78 4. 99 5. 99

What these above data suggest is in spite of having a greater per capita GDP than Pakistan and Bangladesh, India's performance in health and education sector is more than precarious and these two country's are doing fairly same as India in improving the quality of lives of their people given their regular in house political turmoil and violent insurgency problems. The data also suggest that, India's GDP growth has failed to reflect upon the living standards of its people. It is true that 90's economic reform has been tremendously helpful to uplift the quality of life for a vast number of middle and upper middle class, but 70% of the population has remained in the same abysmal poverty as they have been in the pre-reform period.

But take a look at Sri lanka. Its decade turn domestic violence in its north has not prevented it from improving the living standards of its people. This country is giving a tough competition to the Chinese in social condition parameters quite silently and it is the only country in south Asia that I believe, deserves to be called a really close to developed society.

Your argument that South Asians are less aggressive in Industrial production may not be correct in my opinion. India was a textile power house in the pre-colonial era and a number of bills had to be passed in the European parliaments to restrict its textile import in their countries (Just as few countries did the same to stop aggressive Chinese exports in recent past) to save their domestic industries. But the problem is and as it was in 1700's is, even if India manages to become a major manufacturing/ software powerhouse, its people will continue to live in the pathetic living condition same as some African and Arab countries if political leaders and decision makers stop taking its people from granted. Growth and social development are inter dependable. If people continue to live in such a destitute state (50% of the house hold with out a proper toilet) India can't afford to claim it a competitor of the Sri lankans even, let alone the Chinese.

 

[FaujHistorian]

T....

Have some knowledge on vedic science.Try to understand technology of earliest civilization which includes present day Pakistan.

Yeap stories at best.

For me the current journals on science like nature, NEJM, etc. are more applicable.

Thank you

 

[Shotgunner51]

Fauj Bhai, good to see you after such a long time. It's a pleasure meeting you again. I will give some data as on 2011 that will help to understand why India is still far far behind to become a major power, not even on a regional scale.

| GDP per capita, PPP: (Constant 2005 international $)
1. India: 3,203 2. Pakistan: 2,424 3. Bangladesh: 1,569 4. Sri Lanka: 4,929 5. China: 7,418

| Life expectancy
1. 65 2. 65 3. 69 4. 75 5. 73

|Infant mortality rate
1.47 2. 59 3. 37 4. 11 5. 13

|Under five mortality rate
1. 61 2.72 3. 46 4. 12 5. 15

| Maternal mortality Ratio
1.200 2.260 3. 240 4. 35 5. 37

|Access to improved sanitation:
1. 34 2. 48 3. 56 4. 92 5. 64

|Female literacy rate (15-24):
1. 74 2. 61 3. 78 4. 99 5. 99

What these above data suggest is in spite of having a greater per capita GDP than Pakistan and Bangladesh, India's performance in health and education sector is more than precarious and these two country's are doing fairly same as India in improving the quality of lives of their people given their regular in house political turmoil and violent insurgency problems. The data also suggest that, India's GDP growth has failed to reflect upon the living standards of its people. It is true that 90's economic reform has been tremendously helpful to uplift the quality of life for a vast number of middle and upper middle class, but 70% of the population has remained in the same abysmal poverty as they have been in the pre-reform period.

But take a look at Sri lanka. Its decade turn domestic violence in its north has not prevented it from improving the living standards of its people. This country is giving a tough competition to the Chinese in social condition parameters quite silently and it is the only country in south Asia that I believe, deserves to be called a really close to developed society.

Your argument that South Asians are less aggressive in Industrial production may not be correct in my opinion. India was a textile power house in the pre-colonial era and a number of bills had to be passed in the European parliaments to restrict its textile import in their countries (Just as few countries did the same to stop aggressive Chinese exports in recent past) to save their domestic industries. But the problem is and as it was in 1700's is, even if India manages to become a major manufacturing/ software powerhouse, its people will continue to live in the pathetic living condition same as some African and Arab countries if political leaders and decision makers stop taking its people from granted. Growth and social development are inter dependable. If people continue to live in such a destitute state (50% of the house hold with out a proper toilet) India can't afford to claim it a competitor of the Sri lankans even, let alone the Chinese.

A well written post! Growth and social development are inter dependable, that's very true.

If you were to recommend, what kind(s) of socio-economic reform programs would propel Indian economy as well as social prosperity in the long run?

P.S.: Just a foot note if I may add, GDP nominal is more objective cross-country measurement, all home currencies converted to same reference (e.g. US$) at market price, no subjective price-parity adjustment applied (countries have very different consumption vs savings ratio, and very different consumption basket). GDP Per Capita (Current US$) for Year 2013 are
India: 1,497.5 ; Pakistan: 1,275.3 ; Bangladesh: 957.8 ; Sri Lanka: 3,279.9 ; China: 6,807.4
GDP per capita (current US$) | Data | Table

 

[FaujHistorian]

Fauj Bhai, good to see you after such a long time. It's a pleasure meeting you again. I will give some data as on 2011 that will help to understand why India is still far far behind to become a major power, not even on a regional scale.

| GDP per capita, PPP: (Constant 2005 international $)
1. India: 3,203 2. Pakistan: 2,424 3. Bangladesh: 1,569 4. Sri Lanka: 4,929 5. China: 7,418

| Life expectancy
1. 65 2. 65 3. 69 4. 75 5. 73

|Infant mortality rate
1.47 2. 59 3. 37 4. 11 5. 13

|Under five mortality rate
1. 61 2.72 3. 46 4. 12 5. 15

| Maternal mortality Ratio
1.200 2.260 3. 240 4. 35 5. 37

|Access to improved sanitation:
1. 34 2. 48 3. 56 4. 92 5. 64

|Female literacy rate (15-24):
1. 74 2. 61 3. 78 4. 99 5. 99

What these above data suggest is in spite of having a greater per capita GDP than Pakistan and Bangladesh, India's performance in health and education sector is more than precarious and these two country's are doing fairly same as India in improving the quality of lives of their people given their regular in house political turmoil and violent insurgency problems. The data also suggest that, India's GDP growth has failed to reflect upon the living standards of its people. It is true that 90's economic reform has been tremendously helpful to uplift the quality of life for a vast number of middle and upper middle class, but 70% of the population has remained in the same abysmal poverty as they have been in the pre-reform period.

But take a look at Sri lanka. Its decade turn domestic violence in its north has not prevented it from improving the living standards of its people. This country is giving a tough competition to the Chinese in social condition parameters quite silently and it is the only country in south Asia that I believe, deserves to be called a really close to developed society.

Your argument that South Asians are less aggressive in Industrial production may not be correct in my opinion. India was a textile power house in the pre-colonial era and a number of bills had to be passed in the European parliaments to restrict its textile import in their countries (Just as few countries did the same to stop aggressive Chinese exports in recent past) to save their domestic industries. But the problem is and as it was in 1700's is, even if India manages to become a major manufacturing/ software powerhouse, its people will continue to live in the pathetic living condition same as some African and Arab countries if political leaders and decision makers stop taking its people from granted. Growth and social development are inter dependable. If people continue to live in such a destitute state (50% of the house hold with out a proper toilet) India can't afford to claim it a competitor of the Sri lankans even, let alone the Chinese.

Well stated. As always.

In late 19th and early 20th century, Ahmdabad textile mills (Calcutta, and Bombay etc. were there too) was the powerhouse of cotton textile. Please remember though, Indian textile was cheeper, but "garment" industry remained puny compared to Chinese,.

Chinese had a huge lead on "finished" products being consumed in Western Europe back then.

But where were the accounting books maintained for all that East West trade?

In Calcutta offices of most if not all European companies.

Thus the relative "industrial" strength of China and India were clear even back then.


Please note! History just helps explains things the way they are. That's it. Future still remains in our hands to shape and mold the way we want.

with respect

 

[FaujHistorian]

I belive you are a historian n hope you will unbiasely look in to these things and explain right and wrongs in front this forum most of whom don't know what is really vedic science and what are it's part.Most of them belive vedic astrology is related to spaceships......

if one of our relative's is having heart attack (pray too God it never happens), no one is going to run to Vedic science fraud. They should go to a modern hospital for emergency treatment.

 

[RisingShiningSuperpower]

if one of our relative's is having heart attack (pray too God it never happens), no one is going to run to Vedic science fraud. They should go to a modern hospital for emergency treatment.

Modi-ji is working on a certification system for Vedic medicine. There are many fraudsters, but they are being weeded out and punished.

Vedic medicine is very advanced and can cure many diseases western medicine can't, such as AIDS, all tumors and cancers, diabetes, fibromyalgia, and ADHD.

Most Indian doctors in America practice Vedic medicine also. It has been widely accepted to be the best and most effective in the world.

 

[MarkovChain]

Modi-ji is working on a certification system for Vedic medicine. There are many fraudsters, but they are being weeded out and punished.

Vedic medicine is very advanced and can cure many diseases western medicine can't, such as AIDS, all tumors and cancers, diabetes, fibromyalgia, and ADHD.

Most Indian doctors in America practice Vedic medicine also. It has been widely accepted to be the best and most effective in the world.

@nair @SpArK

Surely there has to be a limit to false flagging nonsense?

 

[FaujHistorian]

Modi-ji is working on a certification system for Vedic medicine. There are many fraudsters, but they are being weeded out and punished.

Vedic medicine is very advanced and can cure many diseases western medicine can't, such as AIDS, all tumors and cancers, diabetes, fibromyalgia, and ADHD.

Most Indian doctors in America practice Vedic medicine also. It has been widely accepted to be the best and most effective in the world.

ok

 

[scorpionx]

If you were to recommend, what kind(s) of socio-economic reform programs would propel Indian economy as well as social prosperity in the long run?

India have adopted a number of social security programmes since 2005. Its quest against eradicating poverty and inequality primarily rests upon the following four.

1. Right to education act (2009) that ensures free and compulsory education for children between 6 to 14 years.

2. Midday meal scheme (2004) where students in government run primary schools get food and indirectly aims for attracting more and more children from the under privileged community.

3. National rural employment guarantee act (2005) by which people by self selection from every community in the rural areas can get an assured wage employment of 100 days.

4. Public Distribution System, where people below poverty line get food grains at a minimum price.

So, as you see India, compared to China which started reforming its social development programmes quite earlier (much before 1979) has started bit late. Though the above projects above have shown varying success across the country, they suffer in most of the cases some inherent deficiencies. For example, State run schools have pathetic record of absenteeism both from the teachers and the students as well. As per a survey by Public Record On Basic Education, the number of school days are pathetically fifty in the rural regions. Number of appointed teacher is just one in a staggering number of state run schools. The Public Distribution System (PDS) itself often fails to deliver as the method of identifying people below poverty line is quite confusing even among the government agencies.

In short, India has the right policies to fight the challenges it faces today. But it has still to learn a lot from international and domestic experiences as well. A number of states like Kerala, Tamilnadu and Himachal Pradesh perform remarkably well compared to rest of the country. Where as, a number states (mostly in North India) like Madhyapradesh, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh whose population may equal to 27 African countries combined have pathetic record of socio-economic condition. The state governments, administrative bodies can not escape the blames of poor management and apathy of the precariousness of its people and there has to be a sort of accountability in the public sectors. The 2012 nation wide power black out (which was falsely interpreted as a natural calamity rather than a management failure) is a prime example that there are complete lack of accountability and stringent vigilance on the performance of bureaucrats.

Unnecessary subsidies like fuel, electricity and fertilizer (hardly benefits the actually poor) which enormously drain public revenues from the needed areas like basic health, education and sanitation must be stopped. Problem is, the destitute state of the 0.6 to 0.7 billion people of rural and semi urban areas hardly gets any political and media attention and this is the section that is least vocal about their demands.In short, the list will continue to be long and long. And may not be completed in a single post here.

 

[banvanaxl]

@nair @SpArK

Surely there has to be a limit to false flagging nonsense?

Modi must have really set the @RisingShiningSuperpower OP's imagination [and pants] on fire. Poor bugger cant get enough of him.

I suggest we pay for his flight ticket from Kanpur or Nagpur [or Lahore or Karachi] or wherever and sign a petition on change.org requesting Modiji to make the OP his official kaccha washer as has evidently been his life long dream and objective.

May Modiji accept the OP in his "sharan" and the OP achieve Nirvana and Swarag [or Jannat]. The OP has our best wishes.