Why waning powers meddle in Asian affairs

[gambit]

USA had more ability to "stop" North Korea getting nukes than China did at that time, but the USA chose to focus on Iraq's invisible WMD instead. The USA was the one who "allowed" North Korea to go nuclear.

This is essentially an approval from you for US military actions on NKR. As insignificant as you are, thnx anyway...

And yes, nukes and ICBMs are 1960s technology, even North Korea is capable of achieving it.

Not quite.

So far, NKR have achieved launch capability. There are two more major hurdles.

First...To have a successful reentry. This means the warhead must survive intact atmospheric stresses during reentry.

Second...To have a reasonably accurate warhead. This is where that circular error probability ( CEP ) figure come from.

The second item we can forgo. As of now, it does not matter if the warhead is reasonably accurate or not. If it survives reentry it does not matter if the warhead's accuracy is so bad that it may land in downtown Tokyo or in the middle of the Pacific Ocean or in the Arizona desert. The response will be nuclear.

So that leave everyone -- including your China -- on item one. No one wants to see NKR achieve item one. As of now, any country that has satellites has at least one watching over the Korean peninsula. That means everyone will know if NKR is successful with item one. Whether the missile is designed to be unitary, meaning no warhead separation, or having a distinct warhead carrier that is detached in suborbit, NKR so far have yet to demonstrate that achievement by actually test detonating such a missile.

Right now, your China is nervous on what Kim Jung Un will do. More nervous than US, SKR, and JPN combined. Kim can package an untested warhead and hope that it will land on some people's heads. In this case, no matter how/where this untested warhead land, even if it turned out to be a dud, NKR will cease to exist. Your China will lose a geopolitical buffer. Do not delude yourself that China will respond with a nuclear attack on CONUS or JPN or SKR.

There will be no US-SKR troops crossing the DMZ. NKR was the aggressor and Kim will pay the price. Consider the possibility that the PLA will enter NKR and take out Kim or taking over the country. So guess who is going home irradiated. Looks like that one-child policy did not turned out so good after all with the Chinese parents taking care of the sick sons.

The long term consequences are that China's economy will suffer or even collapse as everyone will shy away from you, after all, NKR was China's responsibility. China will have to deal with the refugees and CNN will broadcast the gory images of PLA troops machine gunning down Koreans at the border. Trade wise, China needs the rest of the world more than we need China. Image wise, banks will turn away Chinese businesses. The world will be in pain as everyone economically suffers and they will blame China for it. China can kiss the SCS goodbye.

 

[Viet]

comparing to confucianism they were never the predominate cultural influence over Japan, maybe you watched too many samurai movies...

Japan has been almost of her history a warlike not confucian nation. There is a saying in Japan: “As the cherry among blossoms, so the warrior among men.”

The Japanese traditionally consider Confucian society as a bunch of weaklings, hindering Japan to become a superpower.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

On the other hand, I am aware of what you said, but I am merely saying the situation China allowed North Korea to develop is Chinese own fault, should it keep NK on a closer watch and not give in to demand when they wanted, Japan and South Korea wanted Nuclear Weapon long ago, US say no, and the US go the extra mile to make sure Japan and SK does not goes nuclear, I can't see or say China is doing the same to NK, basically, you save their arse, and you left them be, which now they become Nuclearized, and I don't know what Chinese government feel about it, but if you ask me to move to Liaoning, I would probably say screw you.

America is the "global policeman", China is a developing country.

America has made it clear, by leading sanctions on Iran (indirect) and invading Iraq (direct) that they are the global policeman when it comes to preventing nuclear proliferation.

That is their duty, and they have failed this duty, by focusing their resources on Iran and Iraq instead, neither of whom possessed nuclear weapons. In fact, the invasion of Iraq showed the world what happens when you don't have nukes, and was the biggest possible motivator for nuclear proliferation for people like Fat Kim.

And now you have two lunatics (Donald Un and Fat Kim) threatening to nuke each other. Do you think EITHER of them are capable of listening to reason? Maybe Fat Kim will, but not Donald Un.

And do you think Fat Kim will go down like former American friends like Saddam or Gadaffi? What America did with Saddam and Gadaffi has basically caused every country in the world to wonder why they aren't developing their own nukes.

There will be no US-SKR troops crossing the DMZ.

China's official position is that if America or SK attack first, our mutual defence treaty with North Korea will be activated. If North Korea attacks first, the mutual defence treaty won't apply.

That's how the wording of the treaty goes.

 

[jhungary]

America is the "global policeman", China is a developing country.

America has made it clear, by leading sanctions on Iran (indirect) and invading Iraq (direct) that they are the global policeman when it comes to preventing nuclear proliferation.

That is their duty, and they have failed this duty, by focusing their resources on Iran and Iraq instead, neither of whom possessed nuclear weapons. In fact, the invasion of Iraq showed the world what happens when you don't have nukes, and was the biggest possible motivator for nuclear proliferation for people like Fat Kim.

And now you have two lunatics (Donald Un and Fat Kim) threatening to nuke each other. Do you think either of them are capable of listening to reason?

And do you think Fat Kim will go down like former American friends like Saddam or Gadaffi? What America did with Saddam and Gadaffi has basically caused every country in the world to wonder why they aren't developing their own nukes.

so, you are saying since US is the global policeman, then every little thing around the world have to get involved? LOL so, if you have a hunger problem and wanted McNugget, are you going to go down stair and ask your local Beat Cop for it?

I don't really care what will happen between US and North Korea, and Nuclear War is one of the option but not all the option the American have, there are many more option, but at the end of the day, it was between US, Japan, South Korea and have nothing to do with China, there are already talks for South Korea and Japan to go nuclear. If the American is okay with that, they will do it, and that, China cannot cry about. So does the chance of US selling more advance weapon to Japan, and more THAAD for South Korea.

Yes, all the world should have Nuke, if you support North Korea to have nuke, then you also need to support Vietnam to right to have nuke, Philippine the right to have nuke, Indonesia the right to have nuke, Japan the right to have nuke, and South Korea the right to have nuke. The more the merrier. And China cannot say a god damn word about this, because, hey, that's your seed, you reap what you sow. That's that simple.

One thing you are right tho. Whatever happen between North Korea and US have no correlation with China, they may have a nuclear war over it, they may not, US may simply prop up Japan and South Korea for deterrence, and that is out of Chinese hand, and hence, if anything happen, including a global nuclear conflict, China does not have the right to say anything about it, because the Chinese is zero in this party. That much is true.

So, relax, and enjoy the ride.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

so, you are saying since US is the global policeman, then every little thing around the world have to get involved? LOL so, if you have a hunger problem and wanted McNugget, are you going to go down stair and ask your local Beat Cop for it?

I don't really care what will happen between US and North Korea, and Nuclear War is one of the option but not all the option the American have, there are many more option, but at the end of the day, it was between US, Japan, South Korea and have nothing to do with China, there are already talks for South Korea and Japan to go nuclear. If the American is okay with that, they will do it, and that, China cannot cry about. So does the chance of US selling more advance weapon to Japan, and more THAAD for South Korea.

Yes, all the world should have Nuke, if you support North Korea to have nuke, then you also need to support Vietnam to right to have nuke, Philippine the right to have nuke, Indonesia the right to have nuke, Japan the right to have nuke, and South Korea the right to have nuke. The more the merrier. And China cannot say a god damn word about this, because, hey, that's your seed, you reap what you sow. That's that simple.

One thing you are right tho. Whatever happen between North Korea and US have no correlation with China, they may have a nuclear war over it, they may not, US may simply prop up Japan and South Korea for deterrence, and that is out of Chinese hand, and hence, if anything happen, including a global nuclear conflict, China does not have the right to say anything about it, because the Chinese is zero in this party. That much is true.

So, relax, and enjoy the ride.

If the "global policeman" decides to allow nuclear proliferation, I certainly will not complain.

I am not worried about South Korea or Japan getting nukes, they are not crazy countries. I'm not worried about Iran or Venezuela either.

There are only two crazy countries that I am worried about, North Korea and America. And they both have nukes already (though only America has actually used them on civilian populations).

Right now, both those crazy countries are openly threatening nuclear warfare with each other. Once that is over, I think the rest of the world will want nukes anyway, since Donald Un will likely be dead.

 

[jhungary]

If the "global policeman" decides to allow nuclear proliferation, I certainly will not complain.

I am not worried about South Korea or Japan getting nukes, they are not crazy countries. I'm not worried about Iran or Venezuela either.

There are only two crazy countries that I am worried about, North Korea and America. And they both have nukes already (though only America has actually used them on civilian populations).

Right now, both those crazy countries are openly threatening nuclear warfare with each other. Once that is over, I think the rest of the world will want nukes anyway, since Donald Un will likely be dead.

You do know if Donald Trump is dead, which mean the world will be over, unless you meant he's dead is by falling down Trump Tower.

Good, maybe North Korea will sell their Nuclear Blue Print in the black market and I just hope Xinjiang Separatist did not get their hand on them. Other than that, I am all good, I don't really care who actually had nuke, Taiwan can have nuke for all I care.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

You do know if Donald Trump is dead, which mean the world will be over, unless you meant he's dead is by falling down Trump Tower.

Good, maybe North Korea will sell their Nuclear Blue Print in the black market and I just hope Xinjiang Separatist did not get their hand on them. Other than that, I am all good, I don't really care who actually had nuke, Taiwan can have nuke for all I care.

Good, then we agree. No more need to control nuclear proliferation, since the two most dangerous countries in the world already have nukes (North Korea and America), and the rest of the world should be able to defend themselves from them. Since they are already screaming about nuclear warfare with each other as we speak.

And let's be honest, if those two lunatics Donald Un and Fat Kim want to nuke each other, no one will be able to convince them otherwise.

 

[Viet]

It's all about perspective. As I said with the above Chinese member, what China doing in North Korea itself is an act of colonization, without vital help from China (Host), there are no way North Korea (Colony) can survive without the input such as food, economy and weapon, but they don't call that colonization, the Chinese prefer the word "Helping the Korean from the Evil American/West"

The problem, did China actually sit down and ask what North Korean want? Do they want to keep this pretence and starve to death because they are seen as the "Brave people republic worrier against western aggression" or they want out of it, I have talk to a North Korean Deflector the time I was station with the 2nd ID as part of DSS intel group. Do you want to know what that North Korean deflector answer me when I ask why North Korean fight like this?

That guys said " I once know why we fight, but not anymore, it have been so long" I can tell you this, if the North Korean were giving a chance to choose between fighting the American by resisting almost everything or sit down and have a full meal, do you know what will they choose? They would have choose the latter.

The problem is, who is forcing the North Korean from fighting? Is it Kim Jong regime? Now, maybe, but before hand? No. Before Kim Jung and his Nuclear Weapon, the sole reason why North Korean fight so that China can have its own buffer between South Korea and the west and Chinese border, now, I ask you ,if this is not colonialism, then what is?

Well, same thing happen in the South, but the difference is, we can call South Korea as US protectorate, you can call it colony, but even tho the Chinese is virtually doing the same thing than the American, the Chinese here still will NEVER agree on North Korea being a colony for China.




@Slav Defence Is this the prime example for you new "Rating Policy"?

You can see, people is still thanking post like this and people who post this could still got away scot free. I think if you ask me, these people spit on your rating policy...lol

Trust me, nothing has change or will never change, and it does not matter if you @waz or @The Eagle said, this will continue, simply because it is not about nationalism, it's the poster itself, there is an old saying in the US south, You can take the Man out of the City but you can't take the City our of the Man, it is what they born with. Not how they play their hand.

NK is good enough for CN as buffer zone and as cheap means to anger/threaten America and Japan. The Chinese won't move a finger even if NK is burned to the ground but their interest is not disturbed. Anyway it is not our business. I only blame our forefathers have not gone the way of Japan. The way of early industrialization the way of bushido. We have long been fooled by Chinese peaceful rise bullshit.

Being part of sino sphere and confucism never hinder the Chinese of staging aggression against Vietnam. The Japanese show how they deal with the Chinese thru history: the policy of iron fist.

Maybe not too late for VN to change course.

 

[gambit]

China's official position is that if America or SK attack first, our mutual defence treaty with North Korea will be activated. If North Korea attacks first, the mutual defence treaty won't apply.

That's how the wording of the treaty goes.

Guess you can kiss the PLA goodbye.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Guess you can kiss the PLA goodbye.

Right, just like US General MacArthur thought during the last Korean War. Remember what he said, "We'll be home before Christmas"?

It ended up with the longest ever retreat of US military forces, all because the US didn't heed China's warning to stay away from the Yalu River.

And that was China in 1950, just after WW2 as well as the Chinese Civil War, when China was an utterly destroyed country that didn't even have an airforce, or even enough guns for our soldiers. Yet America was still forced to retreat. Now imagine China in 2017. You might as well not even show up.

 

[gambit]

Right, like General MacArthur thought during the last Korean War. Remember what he said, "We'll be home before Christmas"?

If you dismissed Desert Storm, you have to dismiss the Korean War.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

If you dismissed Desert Storm, you have to dismiss the Korean War.

Then let America attack North Korea instead of Donald Un constantly crying on the international media.

China won't fulfil our mutual defence treaty with North Korea, right? That's America's gamble, and it's a gamble they should take soon, before the North Koreans further upgrade their nuclear arsenal.

 

[jhungary]

NK is good enough for CN as buffer zone and as cheap means to anger/threaten America and Japan. The Chinese won't move a finger even if NK is burned to the ground but their interest is not disturbed. Anyway it is not our business. I only blame our forefathers have not gone the way of Japan. The way of early industrialization the way of bushido. We have long been fooled by Chinese peaceful rise bullshit.

Being part of sino sphere and confucism never hinder the Chinese of staging aggression against Vietnam. The Japanese show how they deal with the Chinese thru history: the policy of iron fist.

Maybe not too late for VN to change course.

In reality, China might actually invade North Korea if the South and America launch an attack.

There are no love lost between the North Korea and China, North Korea is their pawn, and now that China is strong enough to not need the buffer, the Chinese Interest on North Korea has started to subside. North Korean, however, is much like the Kurd in Iraq after the first gulf war, they were incited to stand off against a "Tyrant" but was struck down with someone else's agenda.

I am not personally worry about North Korea and its nuclear weapon, the people in the South and China may, but in all, that development have helped US selling their stuff, now the American will sell quite a lot of weapon to the scared South Korean and the Japanese, while North Korean continue to eat dirt.

And well, every country have its aggressive side toward their neighbour, that is probably the reason why China can never be as strong as the US as there are quite a few external factor to play, the problem is, yes, there are no peaceful rise. That point you or your forefather should have seen that from a mile away as it always repeated in history, the problem is, you can still make Vietnam strong, just you need to know whether or not you have the guts and wills to do so.

 

[gambit]

China won't fulfil our mutual defence treaty with North Korea, right?

I never said so.

I said that if YOU blame US on how far NKR got with its nuclear weapons program because we as the world policeman failed in our duties, then in the same vein, YOU should not invoke that mutual defense treaty and let US do our job.

But I never expect you to understand your own reasoning in the first place. You, just like your fellow Chinese here, usually do not think before you talk.

While the nature of war do not change, the technology and tactics do, and your China -- approaching 200 yrs -- have not made a single contribution to the art and craft of warfare. The less generous would say 300 yrs.

Each major war changed irreversibly how we fight. The PLA have been nothing but reactive to those changes. Never proactive. Never anticipatory. The potential combatants in the next potential conflict looks at the last major conflict to see how the victor(s) got that way. If you have an air force, you do not analyze the wars where air power do not exist. If you have a machine gun, you do not array your ground troops like the Roman legions did. But this is exactly what YOU, and so often your fellow Chinese on this forum, do with your retreat to the Korean War as how the PLA would win over US. And I used the word 'retreat' deliberately because that is how your PLA will act if they think like you.

No, we do not gamble. That is YOUR play. Not US. Calculated risks are not gambling. Making fun of Donald Trump is not going to help your argument because the US President is not the one who plans wars, the generals do, and right now, the Pentagon got the PLA -- its strength and weaknesses -- factored in. You see any American veterans on this forum calling Xi names ? That is another big difference between us and you Chinese -- respect for your adversary.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

While the nature of war do not change, the technology and tactics do, and your China -- approaching 200 yrs -- have not made a single contribution to the art and craft of warfare. The less generous would say 300 yrs.

Except for the fact that gunpowder, explosives, guns and firearms, rockets and artillery were all invented in China. Maybe you want to go back to fighting with sticks and stones?

If you want something more recent, the DF-21D is the world's first operational ASBM.

Making fun of Donald Trump is not going to help your argument because the US President is not the one who plans wars, the generals do, and right now, the Pentagon got the PLA -- its strength and weaknesses -- factored in.

I'm not making fun of Donald Un, I genuinely believe he is the most dangerous and crazy leader in the world right now. And it's not exactly an uncommon opinion. Fat Kim looks like a saint in comparison.

Donald Un is heading the only country in the world to have used nuclear weapons on a civilian population, tell me how is North Korea worse than that? Maybe North Korea is the second worst, the USA comes in first.

Which is why it is no surprise that both of these countries are currently threatening each other with nuclear war. They are made for each other.