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Why Vietnam Could Be Asia's Biggest Trade War Winner

The Ronin

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In the race to lure companies looking for alternative sites amid the U.S.-China trade war, Vietnam wields a slew of advantages over its rivals.

Vietnam was ranked No. 1 among seven emerging Asian countries as manufacturing destinations by Natixis SA, which looked at demographics, wages and electricity costs, rankings in doing business and logistics, and manufacturing as a share of total foreign direct investment.

“Vietnam is poised to capture some of China’s global market share in labor-intensive manufacturing,” said Trinh Nguyen, a senior economist at Natixis in Hong Kong. “It’s the clear winner from the trade war.”

Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc is taking advantage of trade tensions to boost the nation’s profile as a manufacturing and export powerhouse, selling everything from shoes to smartphones. Trade amounts to about twice its gross domestic product -- more than any country in Asia apart from Singapore.

Here’s a look at what makes Vietnam attractive to foreign investors:

Cheap
Production workers in Vietnam are paid an average of $216 a month, less than half what their peers get in China. Thanks to government subsidies, electricity is also cheaper at 7 U.S. cents per kilowatt hour compared with 10 cents for Indonesia and 19 cents for the Philippines, according to GlobalPetrolPrices.com’s June data.

Vietnam also has one of the largest labor forces in Southeast Asia, at 57.5 million. That compared with 15.4 million for Malaysia and 44.6 million for the Philippines, according to the World Bank.

Cheap Labor

Vietnam's manufacturing wages are among the lowest in Asia

Source: Japan External Trade Organization

Note: Data is base salary as of October 2017, and converted to the U.S. dollar using the average exchange rate for the month

Deals, Investment
Vietnam’s communist leaders have pursued free trade deals with South Korea and Europe and joined 10 other nations in March in signing a Trans-Pacific trade pact.

Officials completed a trade deal with the EU in June that will eliminate almost all tariffs. In Southeast Asia, only Singapore has a similar agreement with the EU.

The government is also making it easier for foreign investors to do business with a proposed securities law that would allow 100 percent foreign ownership of public companies, except those in restricted sectors like banking and telecommunication.

Foreign direct investment is surging, with the government expecting disbursed FDI to rise to a record $18 billion this year.

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., the Taiwan-based manufacturer for companies such as Apple Inc., is considering shifting some of its production to Vietnam as a hedge against the trade tensions between the U.S. and China, said Vu Tien Loc, chairman of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Representatives of the company have spoken with Vietnamese officials, though discussions are preliminary, he added.

Geography
Vietnam’s proximity to China also adds to its appeal. The two share a land border, compared with countries like Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia which are all much farther away.

Chinese companies that need raw materials or product components from the U.S. will find it easier to source these goods via Vietnam. Vietnam is China’s largest trading partner in Southeast Asia as the two nations become more central in each other’s production chains.

Stability
Vietnam boasts one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, forecast to expand at about 7 percent this year. The dong has been relatively stable in 2018, compared with other currencies in Asia like the rupee and rupiah which suffered large declines.

“Strong economic growth and political stability are very important to investors,” said Tony Foster, the Hanoi-based managing partner in Vietnam for law firm Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer LLP.

The dong will remain fairly stable in the near-term, Fitch Solutions Macro Research, a unit of Fitch Group, said in October, citing support from strong FDI inflows and manufacturing.



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— With assistance by John Boudreau

(Updates with Hon Hai in 12th paragraph.)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...cheap-wages-export-deals-as-aces-in-trade-war
 
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It definitely looks like Vietnam is the next fast growing asian country, and it's been the likely plot for a long time now, Japan -> Korea / Taiwan -> China -> Vietnam. Seems logical.

Until now only China made it without Western support, they even made it while the West tried to stop it. Vietnam has it easy, the West probably think they can use it against China so they might help them.

But it's still to be seen if Vietnam can do it, I don't know how its government or economy works so I can't say.
 
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[188734"]Hmm let me guess, people you know see you as that dude with lower than average IQ ?[/QUOTE]
CN could make something cos US support CN instead of arresting Cnese spy like Huawei till 2018 and JP also help CN in infrastructure.

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https%3A%2F%2Fs3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com%2Fpsh-ex-ftnikkei-3937bb4%2Fimages%2F_aliases%2Farticleimage%2F7%2F6%2F4%2F7%2F16457467-1-eng-GB%2Fjpp01350946.jpg
Deng Xiaoping marveled at the comfort and speed of Japan's bullet trains when he took a ride in 1978. © Kyodo

China had been closed to the outside world following the 1966-1976 Cultural Revolution. For the new era, Deng chose Japan as China's gateway to the wider Western world. He asked for Japanese loans to help develop China's still-poor economic infrastructure.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Pi...ing-s-awkward-relationship-with-Deng-Xiaoping
 
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CN could make something cos US support CN instead of arresting Cnese spy like Huawei till 2018 and JP also help CN in infrastructure.

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https%3A%2F%2Fs3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com%2Fpsh-ex-ftnikkei-3937bb4%2Fimages%2F_aliases%2Farticleimage%2F7%2F6%2F4%2F7%2F16457467-1-eng-GB%2Fjpp01350946.jpg
Deng Xiaoping marveled at the comfort and speed of Japan's bullet trains when he took a ride in 1978. © Kyodo

China had been closed to the outside world following the 1966-1976 Cultural Revolution. For the new era, Deng chose Japan as China's gateway to the wider Western world. He asked for Japanese loans to help develop China's still-poor economic infrastructure.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Pi...ing-s-awkward-relationship-with-Deng-Xiaoping

If you look at the world, all poorer countries get these kind of small loans etc, but they're still poor no matter what. It's not the kind of help I was talking about, I was talking about large scale technology transfers and real development help like the kind Japan/Korea/Taiwan etc got in exchange of military submission to contain communism. China never got those and has even been fighting strict anti development policies from the West for some time now but they still made it and are continuing to take on technology intensive industries. You don't see that from other countries, even with a much friendlier environment our Indian friends are still as poor as anyone can be. China is the only country that developed without giving its sovereignty away to the West. I know you hate China because you feel inferior and you like to make up things about China to feel good, but the simple truth is that the Chinese development under the CCP has been stunning and is not stopping anytime soon.
 
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Years ago, someone is asking which countries will be the next world factory...

There were two candidates, between India and Vietnam.

At the time I predict it will be Vietnam.
 
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Years ago, someone is asking which countries will be the next world factory...

There were two candidates, between India and Vietnam.

At the time I predict it will be Vietnam.
CN just gave up their so called " made in 2025" . Ok, Apple, BMW will.still be in CN....but dont know what will happen to CPP :laugh:

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China readying plan to widen foreign access to its economy: WSJ
  • Beijing is reportedly planning to scale back its Made in China 2025 policy to allow foreign countries greater access to its economy.
  • The Wall Street Journal, citing sources, said the new plan could be introduced early next year as China and the U.S. look to end trade turbulence.

China is preparing to replace its Made in China 2025 policy with a program designed to allow foreign companies greater participation in the Chinese economy, according to The Wall Street Journal.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/12/china-readying-plan-to-widen-foreign-access-to-its-economy-wsj.html
 
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CN just gave up their so called " made in 2025" . Ok, Apple, BMW will.still be in CN....but dont know what will happen to CPP :laugh:

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China readying plan to widen foreign access to its economy: WSJ
  • Beijing is reportedly planning to scale back its Made in China 2025 policy to allow foreign countries greater access to its economy.
  • The Wall Street Journal, citing sources, said the new plan could be introduced early next year as China and the U.S. look to end trade turbulence.

China is preparing to replace its Made in China 2025 policy with a program designed to allow foreign companies greater participation in the Chinese economy, according to The Wall Street Journal.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/12/china-readying-plan-to-widen-foreign-access-to-its-economy-wsj.html

I remember they were saying that they would try to be quieter because the Made In China 2025 policy was making the West too nervous. It's good that they act accordingly. Maybe they'll be able to progress even faster without the West being so defensive about it.
 
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I remember they were saying that they would try to be quieter because the Made In China 2025 policy was making the West too nervous. It's good that they act accordingly. Maybe they'll be able to progress even faster without the West being so defensive about it.
When Samsung or Apple buy 51% Huawei share, then "made in 2025" dream go busted.
 
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When Samsung or Apple buy 51% Huawei share, then "made in 2025" dream go busted.

Lmao yeah sure, that'll happen. How about you continue to profit from big brothers rise like you're doing now instead of wishing its fall ?
 
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Lmao yeah sure, that'll happen. How about you continue to profit from big brothers rise like you're doing now instead of wishing its fall ?
We get more profit when CN surrender to US. Do u know why CN attack VN in 1979 ? cos we invaded Thai and Cambodia to unify sub mekong region and take control Malacca strait, but we failed ( to invade Thai while we successed to hold Camb) cos CN keep attacking us and weaken our economy.

When Cn fall, then No one can stop our invasion again.
 
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We get more profit when CN surrender to US. Do u know why CN attack VN in 1979 ? cos we invaded Thai and Cambodia to unify sub mekong region and take control Malacca strait.

When Cn fall, then No one can stop our invasion again.

Ah, the usual Viet day dreaming. Without Soviet help you can't even win against Singapore.
 
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Ah, the usual Viet day dreaming. Without Soviet help you can't even win against Singapore.
1st : Russia will help VN again when CN surrender to US cos Putin dont wanna surrender like Xi.( actually Russia still helping VN in SCS( east VN sea).

2nd:when VN attacked Thai, Thai soldiers always run away to avoid fighting.No Soviet army there to scare Thai.

So, CN fall wil help VN to achieve our goal in unifying sub Mekong.

btw: we dont care whatever u say abt VN army, US-Cn army know what we can do is enough.
 
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