sancho
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With that much money involved , Rafale is not going to fulfill the required squadron numbers.
But the minimal squadrons of Rafale is expected to bring useful technology and co operation which will help domestic and JV projects attain that numbers at faster/ quicker rate.
It never was aimed on giving the squadron numbers, since MRCA and M-MRCA were only considered as a side procurement next to the LCA development, not as an alternative to LCA. The later change to M-MRCA was meant to bring exactly the technology and industrial advantages you mentioned, so that's according to the plan, the only problem is the slow progress of the tender.
If India remains Rafale's partner, the next gen Rafale will be a joint Indo-french project and these same production lines will be producing them for domestic and export purposes.
That's sadly the disappointing part, since Dassault don't offer a partnership nor have the intention to see India as a partner for joint Rafale upgrade standards. We will be able to get a customized version and as part of the ToT / offset requirements we will produce parts that can be exported (airframe, optronics, avionics possibly radar and engine parts), but that's outsourcing production to reduce costs, not joint development. That's where the EF could had offered more potential benefits.