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Whose Intelligence failure?
May 6, 2011
By Ehtisham Amir
Exclusive Article
In Hollywood style commando operation, USA has finally hunted Osama Bin Laden. The Hunt, spread over almost a decade has come to an end. Globally, media is discussing every possible fact of this operation. Exact detail of this operation may come out in Public arena little later but all kind of speculation are being aired in the name of considered opinion. Pakistan, ironically and unfortunately is again in the centre of storm. It appears as there is no let up for Pakistan from the revenge of cosmic forces.
Immediately after the news of operation broke out, whole world media is pointing an accusing finger towards Pakistan and shouting and intelligence failure course. Since its human Psyche that it tends to turn blind eye on facts and logic during euphoric moments, it appears natural. But there is need to take stock of things with cool mind and sift fact from fictions. What is an intelligence failure? In the Osamas case, well, it would perhaps mean that Pakistani intelligence agencies were unaware of his presence in Pakistan. But was Osama a high value target for Pakistan or USA? Since we joined the global war on terror, he would have automatically been designated as High value target for us. But realistically, our intelligence agencies have more than enough on their hands already is shape of Tehnik Taliben and cohorts like them who are a bigger and more sinister threat to our national security than Osama. Moreover, we had been made to believe by persistent and over hostile media and intelligence establishments of the world that Osama and his lieutenants were hiding in no mans land of FATA and adjoining areas. Unless we refuse to accept the fact, Pakistan had been effectively coerced to deploy majority of its military and intelligence assets in FATA. When a country of Pakistans resources is coerced to comply to the wishes of a Super Power, there is not much left with country to guard the rest of the territory. Pakistan does not have infinite resources. Nor it has had any previous intelligence tentacles in FATA. In order to meet the demands of USA led coalition in Afghanistan, we were compelled to focus on FATA alone, leaving a huge void of intelligence in other areas.
Of course, it is not what one would wish to see. We are into midst of a home grown, foreign sponsored, religiously motivated violence. It requires concerted efforts of the state and all of its organs to root this violence out. Corruption touching horrendous proportional shows focus of our ruling political masters. They have perhaps no interest in putting things right. And worst, it appears as if the war on terror has been sublet to security apparatus alone without any political direction. In such a situation, where our civilian intelligence setups like IB and FIA are perhaps forced to devise cover-ups for wrong doings of political masters, gathering operational intelligence has suffered a big body blow. Kind of ingress IB and FIA has into society is not matched by any other agency of state.
Thats said, we of course can not absolve our intelligence agencies of their responsibility. But it also reflects a reality about which no serious comment has been made in print and electronic media as yet. Is this a first intelligence failure in the history of world? Ancient history tells us of an interesting intelligence failure. Trojan Horse was such a failure to anticipate usage of new technology or tactic. It was a monumental failure and gave English language an idiom. But a cursory look at recent history would reveal that all nations have suffered one failure or another.
Israel boasts of its intelligence prowess. But despite known history of hostility with its neighbors, with whom she had fought the latest war in 1967, Israel was surprised at strategical level on the eve of Yom Kippur war of 1973. Israeli intelligence agencies could not foretell a war, despite massive military movements across Suez Camel. Who can forget the Munich Olympic Games and failure of German and Western intelligence agencies? Palestinians did not plan the abduction and subsequent assassination of Israeli athletes over night. Such covert operation require deliberate planning and extensive recconissance of target area. But all this happened in the heart of Europe on the eve of mega sport event like Olympic. Indra Gahndi was assassinated by her own Sikh body guards. Men deputed on such sensitive security assignments are usually kept under 24/7 surveillance to monitor their activities, trend and state of mind. But body guards still managed to surprise every one on the morning of 31 October 1984. Egyptian intelligence agencies could not unearth plot to assassinate President Anwar Sadat. Military Parades are usually kept under strict security intelligence agencies since soldier are carrying weapons into close proximity of dignities, but President Anwar Sadat paid the failure of his intelligence staff with his life.
Coming to more recent history, one is surprised as to how advance European countries can fail so miserably on intelligence operation.
World had changed beyond recognition in the wake of 9/11. State has come down heavily on her own citizens. Personal space has shrunk drastically in USA and Western world. Powers of intelligence agencies to conduct eavesdropping and peep into privacy have been enhanced significantly. But despite all the technological advantages, UK suffered its own 9/11 on 7 July. To us and rest of the developing and underdeveloped world, it may have been shock. But imagine for a while, and we are right now in correct perspective to imagine as to how humiliating it must have appeared to an ordinary citizen of Great Britain. A country of great history and greatest of the imperial powers, in whose empire sun would not set. But it happened and happened in her capital and not some remote, obscure town.
Story of ugly intelligence failure does no end here. In fact, most of the keen reader would be anxiously waiting for a mention of 9/11. USA the sole super power of globe, with over a million people working in nearly 17 different intelligence agencies, failed miserably on account of effective intelligence gathering. What happened on that fateful day is history now. But it leaves a lot to probe as to how and why USA intelligence apparatus could not nip the evil plot in bud. And when the plot went into action, and that action was spread over three different states of America, the state apparatus was caught with its pants down and no effective response was mounted.
Moral of al what has been said earlier is not that we should keep quiet and accept it as a fait accompli. In stead, we should do more soul searching and make a resolve not to let it happen again. Out intelligence agencies may be very effective and competent but there are not omni potent. These are composed of humans from our own society and not staffed by people from Mars. More than ours, this was intelligence failure at part of American. They, with their technological edge, had been pushing us to search Osama in vast stretches of FATA. It proves American propaganda of the past as heap of lies about Al Qaeda being controlled by Osama. There were no telephone or internet connections in Abottabad mansion. Without these basic gadgets of communication, how can one run or direct a feared entity like Al Qaeda. The world had been fed on concocted stories and lies for last decade. It is natural for an intelligence agency of developing country like Pakistan to misled by in cessent propaganda of western powers, who are master at selling half baked truths as gospel truth.
We must accept that if there have been intelligence successes in the past, a failure can also occur. Let us not accept hostile propaganda against our state and its apparatus. We must put our own house in order on our own will and not under any coercion.
May 6, 2011
By Ehtisham Amir
Exclusive Article
In Hollywood style commando operation, USA has finally hunted Osama Bin Laden. The Hunt, spread over almost a decade has come to an end. Globally, media is discussing every possible fact of this operation. Exact detail of this operation may come out in Public arena little later but all kind of speculation are being aired in the name of considered opinion. Pakistan, ironically and unfortunately is again in the centre of storm. It appears as there is no let up for Pakistan from the revenge of cosmic forces.
Immediately after the news of operation broke out, whole world media is pointing an accusing finger towards Pakistan and shouting and intelligence failure course. Since its human Psyche that it tends to turn blind eye on facts and logic during euphoric moments, it appears natural. But there is need to take stock of things with cool mind and sift fact from fictions. What is an intelligence failure? In the Osamas case, well, it would perhaps mean that Pakistani intelligence agencies were unaware of his presence in Pakistan. But was Osama a high value target for Pakistan or USA? Since we joined the global war on terror, he would have automatically been designated as High value target for us. But realistically, our intelligence agencies have more than enough on their hands already is shape of Tehnik Taliben and cohorts like them who are a bigger and more sinister threat to our national security than Osama. Moreover, we had been made to believe by persistent and over hostile media and intelligence establishments of the world that Osama and his lieutenants were hiding in no mans land of FATA and adjoining areas. Unless we refuse to accept the fact, Pakistan had been effectively coerced to deploy majority of its military and intelligence assets in FATA. When a country of Pakistans resources is coerced to comply to the wishes of a Super Power, there is not much left with country to guard the rest of the territory. Pakistan does not have infinite resources. Nor it has had any previous intelligence tentacles in FATA. In order to meet the demands of USA led coalition in Afghanistan, we were compelled to focus on FATA alone, leaving a huge void of intelligence in other areas.
Of course, it is not what one would wish to see. We are into midst of a home grown, foreign sponsored, religiously motivated violence. It requires concerted efforts of the state and all of its organs to root this violence out. Corruption touching horrendous proportional shows focus of our ruling political masters. They have perhaps no interest in putting things right. And worst, it appears as if the war on terror has been sublet to security apparatus alone without any political direction. In such a situation, where our civilian intelligence setups like IB and FIA are perhaps forced to devise cover-ups for wrong doings of political masters, gathering operational intelligence has suffered a big body blow. Kind of ingress IB and FIA has into society is not matched by any other agency of state.
Thats said, we of course can not absolve our intelligence agencies of their responsibility. But it also reflects a reality about which no serious comment has been made in print and electronic media as yet. Is this a first intelligence failure in the history of world? Ancient history tells us of an interesting intelligence failure. Trojan Horse was such a failure to anticipate usage of new technology or tactic. It was a monumental failure and gave English language an idiom. But a cursory look at recent history would reveal that all nations have suffered one failure or another.
Israel boasts of its intelligence prowess. But despite known history of hostility with its neighbors, with whom she had fought the latest war in 1967, Israel was surprised at strategical level on the eve of Yom Kippur war of 1973. Israeli intelligence agencies could not foretell a war, despite massive military movements across Suez Camel. Who can forget the Munich Olympic Games and failure of German and Western intelligence agencies? Palestinians did not plan the abduction and subsequent assassination of Israeli athletes over night. Such covert operation require deliberate planning and extensive recconissance of target area. But all this happened in the heart of Europe on the eve of mega sport event like Olympic. Indra Gahndi was assassinated by her own Sikh body guards. Men deputed on such sensitive security assignments are usually kept under 24/7 surveillance to monitor their activities, trend and state of mind. But body guards still managed to surprise every one on the morning of 31 October 1984. Egyptian intelligence agencies could not unearth plot to assassinate President Anwar Sadat. Military Parades are usually kept under strict security intelligence agencies since soldier are carrying weapons into close proximity of dignities, but President Anwar Sadat paid the failure of his intelligence staff with his life.
Coming to more recent history, one is surprised as to how advance European countries can fail so miserably on intelligence operation.
World had changed beyond recognition in the wake of 9/11. State has come down heavily on her own citizens. Personal space has shrunk drastically in USA and Western world. Powers of intelligence agencies to conduct eavesdropping and peep into privacy have been enhanced significantly. But despite all the technological advantages, UK suffered its own 9/11 on 7 July. To us and rest of the developing and underdeveloped world, it may have been shock. But imagine for a while, and we are right now in correct perspective to imagine as to how humiliating it must have appeared to an ordinary citizen of Great Britain. A country of great history and greatest of the imperial powers, in whose empire sun would not set. But it happened and happened in her capital and not some remote, obscure town.
Story of ugly intelligence failure does no end here. In fact, most of the keen reader would be anxiously waiting for a mention of 9/11. USA the sole super power of globe, with over a million people working in nearly 17 different intelligence agencies, failed miserably on account of effective intelligence gathering. What happened on that fateful day is history now. But it leaves a lot to probe as to how and why USA intelligence apparatus could not nip the evil plot in bud. And when the plot went into action, and that action was spread over three different states of America, the state apparatus was caught with its pants down and no effective response was mounted.
Moral of al what has been said earlier is not that we should keep quiet and accept it as a fait accompli. In stead, we should do more soul searching and make a resolve not to let it happen again. Out intelligence agencies may be very effective and competent but there are not omni potent. These are composed of humans from our own society and not staffed by people from Mars. More than ours, this was intelligence failure at part of American. They, with their technological edge, had been pushing us to search Osama in vast stretches of FATA. It proves American propaganda of the past as heap of lies about Al Qaeda being controlled by Osama. There were no telephone or internet connections in Abottabad mansion. Without these basic gadgets of communication, how can one run or direct a feared entity like Al Qaeda. The world had been fed on concocted stories and lies for last decade. It is natural for an intelligence agency of developing country like Pakistan to misled by in cessent propaganda of western powers, who are master at selling half baked truths as gospel truth.
We must accept that if there have been intelligence successes in the past, a failure can also occur. Let us not accept hostile propaganda against our state and its apparatus. We must put our own house in order on our own will and not under any coercion.
