What Mr Mani Shankar Aiyar won’t say

[Spectre]

@MilSpec @Spectre you are amongst my most respected contributers on here and I beleive there is a middle ground that is being pursued by the current GoI. I am sure I am not the only one who has noticed the exhaustive effort the PMO/GoI(MEA) are putting into the "terror is terror" line (ie- no such thing as "good/bad terrorists" paradigm). Wherever the PM goes, whenever there is a large terror attack anywhere in the world this is the line the GoI and PM utter in unison. The PM takes this further by imploring the world enact a convention on terrorism at the UN with a clear and closed defintion of terrorism and states sponsering terrorism.

Global events are (tragic as they may be) playing into the hands of the PM/GoI and it won't be long before India's call is taken to its logical end. This is only going to massively hurt Pakistan in the long term as the PM has been stating, states who sponsor terror need to be held accountable and isolated.


I think the "limited engagment" the GoI is pursuing right now is merely a formaility, this is a long term game being played out.


+ Pakistan itself is actually helping India's strategy quite neatly- threatening India with TNWs (whislt on US soil no less), handing over hollow/baseless "dossiers" on Indian "terrorism" to the US, releasing 26/11 masterminds etc etc.

In the interest of brevity I agree. Right now I am pissed as hell after watching Mani Shankar Aiyer be a traitor on Karan Thapar's show so forgive if I don't elaborate.

 

[cool_not]

Disengagement is a flawed strategy when

1. Other side wants attention and would start wars for "engagement"
2. Other side has the nuclear umbrella - under the shade of which all kinds of mischief's are planned and executed.

Empty engagement without any expectations to keep alive the perception of momentum is not a bad strategy if you consider the alternative where in absence of engagement who knows what the attention starved nuclear armed neighbor would get up-to.

By all means diplomatic speak don't cost a thing - and as the CIA says Trust but Verify. We don't need to expend any political and diplomatic capital in vacuum of non-progressive peace but we do when another incursions happen.

Where UPA and last NDA Govt went wrong is that they trusted Pakistan - expected dividends and results. I expect future govts to take heed not repeat that same mistake.

Sorry to say dude, but bade fattu lagte ho.

The biggest mistake few Indians do is assuming pakistan and pakistanis fearless and ready to die, which they are not. When death hovers their head, they surrender en masse and chose to live with indignity.

 

[Spectre]

Sorry to say dude, but bade fattu lagte ho.

The biggest mistake few Indians do is assuming pakistan and pakistanis fearless and ready to die, which they are not. When death hovers their head, they surrender en masse and chose to live with indignity.

How is that relevant to my post? Did i make any assertions to contrary about Pakistan as whole? My point I believe was about gullible terrorists which are sponsored by Pakistan. Neither did i advocate for sincere engagement - if you read my post I was advocating for empty or perceptional engagement.
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[cool_not]

How is that relevant to my post? Did i make any assertions to contrary about Pakistan as whole? My point I believe was about gullible terrorists which are sponsored by Pakistan. Neither did i advocate for sincere engagement - if you read my post I was advocating for empty or perceptional engagement.
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You were insinuating that if we do not engage with pakistan, they will impose a war on us. Please let me know if I miss something here.

 

[Spectre]

You were insinuating that if we do not engage with pakistan, they will impose a war on us. Please let me know if I miss something here.

I did yes. You are not missing anything. There are precedents after all.

 

[cool_not]

I did yes. You are not missing anything. There are precedents after all.

And we have precedent of having war while engaging them as well, so what's the point in engagement?

 

[Spectre]

And we have precedent of having war while engaging them as well, so what's the point in engagement?

Lower risks of war - engagement without expectations does not cost anything. If it works good - if it doesn't then nothing is lost - we are prepared for any kind of war. We have lot of Diplomats living the good life - make them work for it.

 

[cool_not]

Lower risks of war - engagement without expectations does not cost anything. If it works good - if it doesn't then nothing is lost - we are prepared for any kind of war. We have lot of Diplomats living the good life - make them work for it.

I think the same has been tried and failed for last 6 decades, time for doctrine change.

 

[kadamba-warrior]

Just like musharaff is non-entity in pakistan so is manishankar & khurshid. why give so much importance to these ppl?

I think the important difference is that while Musharraf is truly a 'spent' force, the Aiyars and Khurshids are our 'future' Foreign Ministers who will shape the direction, or lack thereof, of our foreign policy - come 2019!

The offensive strategy don't work well with an irrational enemy at asymmetrical battlefield who employs suicide bombers and terrorists to achieve the nebulous end-game. US went in Afganishtan and Iraq and after death of thousands of soldiers, Orwellian mass surveillance and trillions of dollars spent which wrecked their economy and in turn caused multiplicative suffering what is the end result ?

Muslim world at large hates US and there are hundreds of thousands of budding terrorists who get up everyday with an intention to kill Americans requiring continued deployment of soldiers in far away lands and expenses which would beggar any other country. Still the sporadic attacks happen and let us not confuse ourselves with the US - we do not have the defense or economy to support that kind of measures.

Even US drew the line at Pakistan and opted for containment and engagement via carrot and stick - despite Pakistan's active patronage of terrorists.

I do not mean to undermine the grief and tragedy victims of terrorism have suffered, we should get Justice - but let us be clear about the costs and consequences.

If our actions end up leaving us worse off - then perhaps it is better we remain circumspect and cautious. Misguided sense of false price and an over-estimation of one's capability would be our undoing

I have said this in the past and will say it again. India has to rake up IWT and make her adherence to it conditional to good behavior from Pakistan.

I know IWT is a holy 'multilateral' cow that can't just be abandoned on India's whims, but what is the sanctity of a mere treaty when Pakistan didn't spare even the sanctity of 'Indian Parliament' itself back in 2001?

If there is one true lever that India has over Pakistan, without interfering in their affairs, that is India's unquestioned adherence to IWT. When you threaten their water supplies every time there is a Kargil or a terror attack traced back to them, that will give their establishment something new to think about!

@Bang Galore @MilSpec @eyeswideshut

 

[Indika]

Aiyars

"He represented the Mayiladuthurai constituency of Tamil Nadu in the 14th Lok Sabha. He is currently a nominated member of parliament from rajya sabha. He was defeated from Mayiladuthurai in 2014 lok sabha election where he finished fourth and lost his deposit."
Less likely

India has to rake up IWT and make her adherence to it conditional to good behavior from Pakistan.

We need to show intention without any verbal message. The issue is if we push pakistan on IWT they will crawl deep into lap of china.

Afghanistan is a better bet, I would say. Lets keep our borders tension free.

 

[kadamba-warrior]

"He represented the Mayiladuthurai constituency of Tamil Nadu in the 14th Lok Sabha. He is currently a nominated member of parliament from rajya sabha. He was defeated from Mayiladuthurai in 2014 lok sabha election where he finished fourth and lost his deposit."
Less likely

After watching chara-chor Lalu's sons sworn in as Dy CM and ministers, I wouldn't bet a single Rupee on the intelligence of Indian voters.

I say Congress has a pretty good chance of being part of the next dispensation (even as a junior partner)! Just as it did for 2 consecutive terms quite comfortably, immediately after Vajpayee sahab's "Shining India" performance!

We need to show intention without any verbal message. The issue is if we push pakistan on IWT they will crawl deep into lap of china.

IMHO Pakistan is already so deep into China's laps that it is not possible to push them any deeper. Besides, India DIDN'T push Pakistan into Chinese laps. They just sought each other out.

Anyway, Pakistanis need to be made aware that there will be a cost for every attack and IWT isn't beyond consideration should there be another Kargil/Mumbai.

Besides, I think a mere mention of IWT rethink by India should send the necessary message.

Afghanistan is a better bet, I would say. Lets keep our borders tension free.

BTW, it is NOT India's choice to keep borders tension free. It simply doesn't suit Pakistan's interests to keep the borders peaceful and hence the frequent flare-ups.

 

[Indika]

BTW, it is NOT India's choice to keep borders tension free. It simply doesn't suit Pakistan's interests to keep the borders peaceful and hence the frequent flare-ups.

Do they have a choice? once afghanistan is able to stand on its own its pay back time for pakistan. Only issue is that afghanistan is being kept down by pakistan using taliban once they break the shackles then it will be a fair chance.

 

[kadamba-warrior]

Do they have a choice? once afghanistan is able to stand on its own its pay back time for pakistan. Only issue is that afghanistan is being kept down by pakistan using taliban once they break the shackles then it will be a fair chance.

Mate, I think Afghans are already done for. They are only jumping from pan to the fire with i*s*i*s making gains there with an alarming regularity.

If Pakistan has sustained this heating up the Eastern border for so long in one form or another, there is nothing to suggest that it will change anytime soon. If anything, they have only grown more belligerent with their 'atomi chhata'.

Trusting Pakistanis to behave rationally at our borders is setting ourselves up for disappointment. After all, this is the same country which in 2008 launched attacks on Mumbai, even as large swathes of their own western territories (a la Swat) were literally under Taliban rule!

 

[Indika]

Mate, I think Afghans are already done for. They are only jumping from pan to the fire with i*s*i*s making gains there with an alarming regularity.

If Pakistan has sustained this heating up the Eastern border for so long in one form or another, there is nothing to suggest that it will change anytime soon. If anything, they have only grown more belligerent with their 'atomi chhata'.

Trusting Pakistanis to behave rationally at our borders is setting ourselves up for disappointment. After all, this is the same country which in 2008 launched attacks on Mumbai, even as large swathes of their own western territories (a la Swat) were literally under Taliban rule!

I would not explicitly state any thing , but more unstable one of the paks neighbor better the chance to tie pakistan down.
We will simply follow what is china doing with us.