What is the cause for Sudden Spike in Dollar VS Rupee value?

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

The Sudden Spike in Dollar value is certainly interesting Topic

a) There is record figures of dollars coming into Pakistan from Pakistani Living Abroad
b) There is record figures of Food Goods being produced in Pakistan , Export of Fruit/Vegetables/Dry fruit / Flour / Rice
c) There was increase of Pakistani workers moving to Middle East to work in Middle East

On top of these measures, The textile sector ramped up in 1.5 years to start producing valuable impact with Exports

Roshan Digital Account has attracted at least 1.5 Billion Dollar in Account Value belonging to Pakistani Residents


Saudia has helped Pakistan defer payments for Oil and Gas , now second time in row

• Yes the oil and gas prices have risen world wide

Seems like we are shipping our stuff for dirt cheap rate and importing stuff at extremely unfavorable rates




What causes the Dollar Value to Spike?
Prices rise when there is shortage of something , so there are less dollar in circulation vs Pakistani Rupee
How are bags and bags full of dollar vanishing ?

• Pakistanis overseas can setup Dollar Monetary Account in Pakistan ! So dollar numbers should rises locally in bank

So what am I missing ? Here all these positive indicators , not forgetting Lock down in Pakistan was smaller
So why is the value of Dollar "Spiking up " ????

 

[blueazure]

simple answer -

reza baqir is an IMF appointed Hitman to finish PKR

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[Enigma SIG]

Pakistanis importing goods and exporting bullshit.

 

[Ghessan]

import bill rising, including food, fuel, industrial input, machinery, medicines, automobile effecting the rupee parity with dollar.

imported inflation is fueling the inflationary pressure in the economy. balance of payments is another factor.

actually current govt could not rightly forecast the rate of growth in imports. this massive import is the main reason behind current account deficit.

rise in petroleum and food items imports is more due to rising international prices not that there is increase in domestic demand.

rise in imports of metals due to activity in construction sector is another reason for increase in imports.
only in textile sector govt ambitiously set target of exports to 21 billion dollars which come at the cost of increasing output at the cost of more imports in textile machinery.

there are other sectors including transport, petroleum, agricultural, chemicals with massive increase in imports.

 

[Bilal9]

Guys look at the context.

Covid is on the wane, industrial activity jump started in all countries including Pakistan, record demand for clothes and other items in all Western countries now.

Raw Material import needed to meet export commitments (capital equipment, yarn, cotton, machinery), record import L/C's are being opened, dollar naturally in short supply now for that reason.

Import L/Cs opened but export L/Cs for goods exported not paid yet.

When export L/Cs get paid, Dollars will come back to banks and Pakistani Rupee will be valued upward again.

Petroleum and Food is costly because of logistics disruption worldwide. All US Ports have backlog and so does all Middle Eastern and EU ports. Will take some time to catch up to normal flow.

Same thing happening in Bangladesh.

 

[Zibago]

simple answer -

reza baqir is an IMF appointed Hitman to finish PKR

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So why are exports rising if he is a hitman?
Pakistan reports ‘highest-ever’ October exports - SAMAA

What causes the Dollar Value to Spike?

The commodity spike has caused this and this will subside in the coming months as by April we expect the oil market to cool down

 

[Indos]

Look on trade deficit and Capital Outflow from Pakistan financial market. The Fed starts tapering and possible increase interest rate. US Gov bond is likely to increase the yield to get more money coming in to finance that 1.6 trillion USD infrastructure project. USD is going to increase relative to many currency where weak currency will get the biggest depreciation.

Pakistani businesses and rich people may buy USD to get some profit

 

[Prince Kassad]

When India said about isolation, it meant this.

 

[MH.Yang]

The US over issued $4 trillion, triggering global inflation.
In the environment of global inflation, capital will flow to trade surplus countries and industrial countries, and the currencies of deficit countries will depreciate.
Now is not the most difficult time. The USA will soon raise interest rates to curb inflation. When a large number of dollars return to the USA, this is the most difficult time.

 

[Norwegian]

simple answer -

reza baqir is an IMF appointed Hitman to finish PKR

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[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Well It seems the problem is such



1- We have decoupled the Rupee Price control and made it self adjusting , It can go up and down on it's on unchecked
(We told IMF and world to come kick our buttocks at will)

2- Talks are active between IMF and Pakistan on autonomy to state bank & amnesty to officials
https://www.dawn.com/news/1655076

3- UK has released Lock on Shabaz and Nawaz Sharif wealth in UK granting money to finance media and protest

4- The Mafia in Pakistan which control food distribution is operating unchecked

5- NAB has gradually phased out of picture since immense pressure from Political Party (PPP and PML)

6 - Afghanistan is in chaos , and Dollar is needed in abundance to perform trade , this is creating extra shortages of Dollar Nationally , this trade should be in Pakistani Tender

"DOLLA chahiye baba DOLLA for Afghan-Pakistan trade " this has created shortages in Pakistan for Dollar
Because USA held up Taliban 13 Billion Dollar in their Offshore bank accounts , thus means dollars from Pakistani Economy have made it to Afghan-Pakistani traders in black market , this is where the leak is for Dollar Currency

7 - Beside this where is the Dollar vanishing ?

• Oversea Pakistani people are sending in money to Pakistan, is the Dollar not reaching Pakistan
• Record Exports out to foreign countries from Pakistan , for food goods
• New trade channels have opened in Afghanistan for Pakistani traders to export goods
• Textile sector is exporting goods , generating money is the money not reaching Pakistan ?
• There is limit on Dollar purchase locally now ($600 monthly limit ) so people can't hoard dollar, it seemed at one time trend was to purchase Dollar from exchange and hoard it at home or lockers to sell it in future

Imran Khan Government is facing

a) External Pressure form Oil and Gas prices (remember the gas fields at sea never happened )
b) Locally the Food Mafia is raising the prices at will without any checks
c) Fazal group is pressuring the government with Protest

• The conditions are resembling the time period when President Musharraf's government was toppled with NRO curse imposed in 2008
• Only thing missing is the movement of mafia group like Lawyer's group who were in streets
• The military the way it works it it will distance itself from Imran Khan , when it will notice Public is on streets and that is the ultimate objective of external players , IMF and Nawaz Sharif and Company

What is needed is that Finance Team , prepare a detail response on why Dollar value has gone done and what is being done to correct the issue


With Dollar prices spiking it will make paying off existing debt harder as we will have to sell more food resources to foreign countries to make revenue to pay debt and payment for oil

 

[blueazure]

So why are exports rising if he is a hitman?
Pakistan reports ‘highest-ever’ October exports - SAMAA

relative to imports, exports have hardly risen

the idea was to devalue the pkr so as to curb imports, quiet the reverse happened

we now have record high imports and meagre increase in exports despite the weak pkr


baqarnomics have failed, unless you want to believe mentally challenged PTI trolls like norwegian

 

[Norwegian]

relative to imports, exports have hardly risen

the idea was to devalue the pkr so as to curb imports, quiet the reverse happened

we now have record high imports and meagre increase in exports despite the weak pkr


baqarnomics have failed, unless you want to believe mentally challenged PTI trolls like norwegian

It's always the case. Pakistani economy cannot grow more than 4 percent without making harsh structural changes

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Exports are rising because our Resources are being taken at Dirt Cheap prices

Pakistan has to stop the exports at dirt cheap rates and hold on to principle that first the food will be used by Local People and only the excess will be exported

We are getting screwed , shipping out good quality food products to foreign countries without capturing enough money in return

While export figures are YTY rising , and tremendous growth but we are not getting our fair share , so we can pay back our loans

It's plain straight forward manipulation from outside
If the $ rate giving to Pakistan is not good , stop export of food products overseas , put extra food into storage locally in Pakistan

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

In order to Raise demand for Pakistani Rupee, we will need to Do trade with Afghan in Pakistani Rupee , so they will Demand it from it in order to buy Fruit / Vegetable or Meat Products, we need to collect back the Black Market Dollar back and put it back into Pakistani State reserve where it was taken from

This is should reduce the Dollar Shortages locally in side Pakistan

Secondly any politician affiliates companies should be monitored if they purchased large Dollar quantity from market could be just hoarding up dollar in villages