Asfandyar Khan
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Wakhan Corridor...An opportunity!
Introduction
Let me give you some basic facts first! The Wakhan Corridor is the narrow strip of territory in northeastern Afghanistan that extends to China and separates Tajikistan from Pakistan. The corridor, is about 350 km (220 mi) long and 13–65 kilometers (8.1–40.4 mi) wide
As of 2010, the Wakhan Corridor had 12,000 inhabitants. There are about 110 villages. Ethnic groups include around 9000 Wakhi, some 1500 Kyrgyz and Kuchi people during winter (The people in Pamir change their residences in Spring, Summer and winter Seasons)
The northern part of the Wakhan is also referred to as the Pamir, where the majority of villages/towns exist and population lives. These settlements are located mostly on Panj/Pamir river which forms the natural border between Wakhan and Tajikistan.
Infrastructure, Health and education
Of the total ~110, 20% Villages have no access to roads while 70% have no electricity. Literacy rate for males is 20% while surprisingly the literacy rate for females is 50%. Wakhan, a district of badakhshan province has three primary, six secondary and four high schools.
Strategic value
Wakhan corridor enjoys extreme strategic position. It lies between Afghanistan, central Asia, China and Pakistan
The corridor was a political creation of The Great Game. On the corridor's north side, agreements between Britain and Imperial Russia in 1873 and between Britain and Afghanistan in 1893* effectively split the historic region of Wakhan by making the Panj and Pamir Rivers the border between Afghanistan and the Russian Empire. This left a narrow strip of land as a buffer between the two empires, which became known as the Wakhan Corridor in the 20th century.
When soviets entered Afghanistan on request of then communist regime, they built a military base at Sarhad-e-Broghil, which was situated ten km from Pakistan and 18-20 kms from Gilgit Baltistan border (claimed by Soviet Ally India) A little too close for comfort.
India on other hand want AJK and GB and make contact with Afghanistan at Wakhan corridor, which will help it to completely cut the contact between its two main enemies in the region, China and Pakistan. General VK singh was even mentioned it in thesis.
Recently Afghanistan has requested China to open its border at Wakhjir Pass but to no avail. China main concern is ETIM terrorists and drug smuggling.
Pakistan and The opportunity
Almost everyone in Pakistan, from politicians to civilians and to military establishment knows just how reckless Afghanistan can be at times.
Afghan incursion into Bajaur agency in 1960-61 and other Afghan raids in Baluchistan and Khyber throughout 1950s-60s, under Prime Minister Sardar Daud Khan is an example. Afghanistan also completely severed ties in 1961 after they were defeated from Bajaur. On September 3, 1961 Afghanistan sealed its side of the border and on September 6, 1961 breaks relations. Again in 1974 Sardar Daud Khan, now President, hosted General Secretary of the ANP led by Khan Abdul Wali Khan, Ajmal Khattak,and others like Juma Khan Sufi, Baluch guerrillas etc. and started training Pakhtun Zalmay and young Baluchs and was sending them to Pakistan for sabotage and militancy.
So much so that one of Bhutto's senior members, minister of interior and head of provincial party, Hayat Mohammad Sherpao, was killed and the relations with Pakistan further dipped. As a response Pakistan also started the same. By 1975, Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, through its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has been engaged in promoting a proxy war in Afghanistan. Some of those trained and supported by Pakistan were Jalaluddin Haqqani, and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.
This recklessness isn't just limited against Pakistan, Communist Afghans invited the soviets to put down Islamic fundamentalists, which started a war which consumed the lives of 1-1.5 million people and again when leader of Afghan Taliban refused to hand over Osama Bin Laden to am angry and furious USA.
Some of these were the opportunities Pakistan didn't avail and occupied in retaliation, The Wakhan corridor e.g in 1960.
Lets face it, Afghanistan IS a hostile state since inception of Pakistan. It lays claims to almost 60% of Pakistani territory by not officially accepting the Durand Line.
Afghanistan is bound by its nature and its own(and Indian) interests to cause more trouble for Pakistan on its eastern border. Recently, The under pressure govt of Ashraf Ghani has agreed to to acquire Four Mi-25 attack helicopters from india, a small but politically significant deal.
So when next time Afghanistan imposes war, proxy war, incursion or other significant attack against Pakistan, Pakistan must retaliate by capturing the corridor and reap benefits.
Actually its the only way Pakistan can retaliate to an Afghan misadventure. Capturing or even waging war on Durand line will cause loss of life and damage to ethnic Pashtuns among whom many have relatives at this side of the border and share cultural links, this will cause some tensions within Pakistan, and it wont be smart to occupy major hostile population. But Wakhan is barely populated nor will its capture cause internal tensions but will be considered as a great victory against an aggressor state.
But there is a catch. By capturing Wakhan, Pakistan will be violating Afghan-British accord of 1893* about Durand line and some what legitimizing Afghan claim, at-least about Durand line that borders wakhan. This is the only reason Pakistan must only capture it in a retaliatory attack. Thus rightly putting the blame on Afghanistan for violating the accord.
Note* (Some in Afghanistan hold a false belief that 1893 accord had a time period of 100 years. This isn't true but an assumption based on Chinese-British treaty called "Convention for the Extension of Hong Kong Territory" in which the British representative during the convention, picked a 99-year lease because he thought it was "as good as forever."" There is no such thing mentioned in Durand line agreement. So Pakistan can keep it forever or give it back by next sunday. Pakistan's choice)
Where to occupy?
There are numerous North-South valleys spread across wakhan, but the first major such valley is located just south of village called Qazi Deh. Qazi deh lies on the left bank of the Panj River, 20 km from Ishkashim. This valley is at the eastern most corner of the corridor.
The valley is some 28Kms long, and can be used as a frontline/natural wall against west Afghanistan while rest of Pakistani forces would easily overcome any Afghan forces in rest of wakhan, cut off from mainland and heavily out numbered.
Why North to South heading valley you ask? Thats because it makes more sense to occupy the eastern mountain tops of the valley to defend against any counter attack or incursion from the west, in which direction rest of Afghanistan would lie
Benefits
• Pakistan, a nuclear-armed Islamic state, has a history of political relations with Central Aisa and is termed capable of exercising influence. For some Central Asian nations, the shortest route to the ocean lies through Pakistan. Pakistan seeks natural gas from Central Asia and supports the development of pipelines from its countries. According to an independent study, Turkmenistan is supposed to be the fifth largest natural gas field in the world. The mountain ranges and areas in northern Pakistan lie on the fringes of greater Central Asia, separated only by the narrow Afghan Wakhan Corridor.
• Pakistan will have a shorter way to join China-Eurasia economic corridor
• Although Central Asian States are land-locked and dependent on other regional partners for export purposes but still all eyes are set on central Asian States. The Caspian Sea in Central Asia contains the world’s largest untapped oil and gas resources. All countries in the region are getting close to Central Asian States and they geared up their trade.
Pakistan-An attraction of Shortest Land Route
• Pakistan would enjoy the role of middle man between the SAARC, ECO and EEC and the attraction of the shortest land route to some of the Central Asian countries to the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf. This will also provide SAFE passage to oil rich Caspian sea region, if Pakistan ever wanted to invest in oil exploration there, it wouldn't need to build pipeline though a hostile country.
• Despite their ethnic bonds with Turkey. Iran and Afghanistan, the CA States can benefit more from Pakistan’s port facilities, trade and commerce with the countries in tire Southern Hemisphere.
• The ports of Abadan and Bander Abbas in Iran and the Karachi port in Pakistan can handle this transit trade by expanding their facilities rapidly. The Tajik capital of Dushanbe is about 3000 kilometers from Bander Abbas in Iran and about 2200 kilometers from Karachi while the Black Sea port of Odessa for access to the Mediterranean is about 4200 kilometers away
• The landlocked Central Asian states can even set up a joint shipping company with Pakistan under the aegis of the EC.O to handle a large part of their transit trade. If Pakistan speeds up the development of the Gawadar port on the Baluchistan coast into a large-size modern port, it can be an asset for this province as well as for the CA States.
• Capturing Wakhan corridor would put an end Indian dream to cut border link between Pakistan and China. Even if it gets Gb and AJK (highly unlikely, using just for example) there would still be 170km of territory which it has no claim on, between india and Afghanistan.
Consequences
US would be fuming. Afghanistan is the only country in the region it holds complete sway over and can cause problems for china over its Uighur separatists in xinjiang. Will propably even sanction Pakistan.
Russia will be the key.
Pakistan must engage Russia to make sure it understand we pose no threat to their influence in Central Asia but merely want trade. Increased bilateral trade with a nation of 200 million will also help Russian economy which has suffered after Russian annexation of Crimea.
China on other hand will be relieved as ETIM terrorists from Afghan badlands wont be able to make it to china anymore, at-least from wakhan. operation Zarb-e-Azb has already made it impossible to go through Pakistan.
India would be gibbering in the corner but who cares what they think?
Conclusion
I am not saying Pakistan must invade Afghanistan but this option must be considered and should be on the table in case another Afghan misadventure. Afghanistan own interests, that of reaching Makran coast, will force it to do something against Durand line accord. Pakistan must take full use of such mistake. This mistake will probably take decades to be committed but this is a long term plan and Pakistan must be on its toes.
Until then Pakistan should make CPEC its success story and desperately needs to provide jobs, infrastructure and other services to its under developed eastern region (FATA/GB/Baluchistan). It also needs to expand its tax net and control widespread corruption.
While regional and international circumstances have no doubt conspired against Pakistan, the latter should leave no stone upturned in looking out, shamelessly, for its own interest. Combating international terrorism, building a sound infrastructure along Pakistan-Afghan border and cleansing its own fractious tribal belt of foreign militants. At the same time, there is a dire need in setting its political house in order by co-opting major political parties.
And before some Afghan troll call me Punjabi etc, I am a Pashtun. Zen Pashtun yum.
Asfandyar Bhittani
twitter @bhittanikhannnn
Introduction
Let me give you some basic facts first! The Wakhan Corridor is the narrow strip of territory in northeastern Afghanistan that extends to China and separates Tajikistan from Pakistan. The corridor, is about 350 km (220 mi) long and 13–65 kilometers (8.1–40.4 mi) wide
As of 2010, the Wakhan Corridor had 12,000 inhabitants. There are about 110 villages. Ethnic groups include around 9000 Wakhi, some 1500 Kyrgyz and Kuchi people during winter (The people in Pamir change their residences in Spring, Summer and winter Seasons)
The northern part of the Wakhan is also referred to as the Pamir, where the majority of villages/towns exist and population lives. These settlements are located mostly on Panj/Pamir river which forms the natural border between Wakhan and Tajikistan.
Infrastructure, Health and education
Of the total ~110, 20% Villages have no access to roads while 70% have no electricity. Literacy rate for males is 20% while surprisingly the literacy rate for females is 50%. Wakhan, a district of badakhshan province has three primary, six secondary and four high schools.
Strategic value
Wakhan corridor enjoys extreme strategic position. It lies between Afghanistan, central Asia, China and Pakistan
The corridor was a political creation of The Great Game. On the corridor's north side, agreements between Britain and Imperial Russia in 1873 and between Britain and Afghanistan in 1893* effectively split the historic region of Wakhan by making the Panj and Pamir Rivers the border between Afghanistan and the Russian Empire. This left a narrow strip of land as a buffer between the two empires, which became known as the Wakhan Corridor in the 20th century.
When soviets entered Afghanistan on request of then communist regime, they built a military base at Sarhad-e-Broghil, which was situated ten km from Pakistan and 18-20 kms from Gilgit Baltistan border (claimed by Soviet Ally India) A little too close for comfort.
India on other hand want AJK and GB and make contact with Afghanistan at Wakhan corridor, which will help it to completely cut the contact between its two main enemies in the region, China and Pakistan. General VK singh was even mentioned it in thesis.
Recently Afghanistan has requested China to open its border at Wakhjir Pass but to no avail. China main concern is ETIM terrorists and drug smuggling.
Pakistan and The opportunity
Almost everyone in Pakistan, from politicians to civilians and to military establishment knows just how reckless Afghanistan can be at times.
Afghan incursion into Bajaur agency in 1960-61 and other Afghan raids in Baluchistan and Khyber throughout 1950s-60s, under Prime Minister Sardar Daud Khan is an example. Afghanistan also completely severed ties in 1961 after they were defeated from Bajaur. On September 3, 1961 Afghanistan sealed its side of the border and on September 6, 1961 breaks relations. Again in 1974 Sardar Daud Khan, now President, hosted General Secretary of the ANP led by Khan Abdul Wali Khan, Ajmal Khattak,and others like Juma Khan Sufi, Baluch guerrillas etc. and started training Pakhtun Zalmay and young Baluchs and was sending them to Pakistan for sabotage and militancy.
So much so that one of Bhutto's senior members, minister of interior and head of provincial party, Hayat Mohammad Sherpao, was killed and the relations with Pakistan further dipped. As a response Pakistan also started the same. By 1975, Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, through its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has been engaged in promoting a proxy war in Afghanistan. Some of those trained and supported by Pakistan were Jalaluddin Haqqani, and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.
This recklessness isn't just limited against Pakistan, Communist Afghans invited the soviets to put down Islamic fundamentalists, which started a war which consumed the lives of 1-1.5 million people and again when leader of Afghan Taliban refused to hand over Osama Bin Laden to am angry and furious USA.
Some of these were the opportunities Pakistan didn't avail and occupied in retaliation, The Wakhan corridor e.g in 1960.
Lets face it, Afghanistan IS a hostile state since inception of Pakistan. It lays claims to almost 60% of Pakistani territory by not officially accepting the Durand Line.
Afghanistan is bound by its nature and its own(and Indian) interests to cause more trouble for Pakistan on its eastern border. Recently, The under pressure govt of Ashraf Ghani has agreed to to acquire Four Mi-25 attack helicopters from india, a small but politically significant deal.
So when next time Afghanistan imposes war, proxy war, incursion or other significant attack against Pakistan, Pakistan must retaliate by capturing the corridor and reap benefits.
Actually its the only way Pakistan can retaliate to an Afghan misadventure. Capturing or even waging war on Durand line will cause loss of life and damage to ethnic Pashtuns among whom many have relatives at this side of the border and share cultural links, this will cause some tensions within Pakistan, and it wont be smart to occupy major hostile population. But Wakhan is barely populated nor will its capture cause internal tensions but will be considered as a great victory against an aggressor state.
But there is a catch. By capturing Wakhan, Pakistan will be violating Afghan-British accord of 1893* about Durand line and some what legitimizing Afghan claim, at-least about Durand line that borders wakhan. This is the only reason Pakistan must only capture it in a retaliatory attack. Thus rightly putting the blame on Afghanistan for violating the accord.
Note* (Some in Afghanistan hold a false belief that 1893 accord had a time period of 100 years. This isn't true but an assumption based on Chinese-British treaty called "Convention for the Extension of Hong Kong Territory" in which the British representative during the convention, picked a 99-year lease because he thought it was "as good as forever."" There is no such thing mentioned in Durand line agreement. So Pakistan can keep it forever or give it back by next sunday. Pakistan's choice)
Where to occupy?
There are numerous North-South valleys spread across wakhan, but the first major such valley is located just south of village called Qazi Deh. Qazi deh lies on the left bank of the Panj River, 20 km from Ishkashim. This valley is at the eastern most corner of the corridor.
The valley is some 28Kms long, and can be used as a frontline/natural wall against west Afghanistan while rest of Pakistani forces would easily overcome any Afghan forces in rest of wakhan, cut off from mainland and heavily out numbered.
Why North to South heading valley you ask? Thats because it makes more sense to occupy the eastern mountain tops of the valley to defend against any counter attack or incursion from the west, in which direction rest of Afghanistan would lie
Benefits
• Pakistan, a nuclear-armed Islamic state, has a history of political relations with Central Aisa and is termed capable of exercising influence. For some Central Asian nations, the shortest route to the ocean lies through Pakistan. Pakistan seeks natural gas from Central Asia and supports the development of pipelines from its countries. According to an independent study, Turkmenistan is supposed to be the fifth largest natural gas field in the world. The mountain ranges and areas in northern Pakistan lie on the fringes of greater Central Asia, separated only by the narrow Afghan Wakhan Corridor.
• Pakistan will have a shorter way to join China-Eurasia economic corridor
• Although Central Asian States are land-locked and dependent on other regional partners for export purposes but still all eyes are set on central Asian States. The Caspian Sea in Central Asia contains the world’s largest untapped oil and gas resources. All countries in the region are getting close to Central Asian States and they geared up their trade.
Pakistan-An attraction of Shortest Land Route
• Pakistan would enjoy the role of middle man between the SAARC, ECO and EEC and the attraction of the shortest land route to some of the Central Asian countries to the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf. This will also provide SAFE passage to oil rich Caspian sea region, if Pakistan ever wanted to invest in oil exploration there, it wouldn't need to build pipeline though a hostile country.
• Despite their ethnic bonds with Turkey. Iran and Afghanistan, the CA States can benefit more from Pakistan’s port facilities, trade and commerce with the countries in tire Southern Hemisphere.
• The ports of Abadan and Bander Abbas in Iran and the Karachi port in Pakistan can handle this transit trade by expanding their facilities rapidly. The Tajik capital of Dushanbe is about 3000 kilometers from Bander Abbas in Iran and about 2200 kilometers from Karachi while the Black Sea port of Odessa for access to the Mediterranean is about 4200 kilometers away
• The landlocked Central Asian states can even set up a joint shipping company with Pakistan under the aegis of the EC.O to handle a large part of their transit trade. If Pakistan speeds up the development of the Gawadar port on the Baluchistan coast into a large-size modern port, it can be an asset for this province as well as for the CA States.
• Capturing Wakhan corridor would put an end Indian dream to cut border link between Pakistan and China. Even if it gets Gb and AJK (highly unlikely, using just for example) there would still be 170km of territory which it has no claim on, between india and Afghanistan.
Consequences
US would be fuming. Afghanistan is the only country in the region it holds complete sway over and can cause problems for china over its Uighur separatists in xinjiang. Will propably even sanction Pakistan.
Russia will be the key.
Pakistan must engage Russia to make sure it understand we pose no threat to their influence in Central Asia but merely want trade. Increased bilateral trade with a nation of 200 million will also help Russian economy which has suffered after Russian annexation of Crimea.
China on other hand will be relieved as ETIM terrorists from Afghan badlands wont be able to make it to china anymore, at-least from wakhan. operation Zarb-e-Azb has already made it impossible to go through Pakistan.
India would be gibbering in the corner but who cares what they think?
Conclusion
I am not saying Pakistan must invade Afghanistan but this option must be considered and should be on the table in case another Afghan misadventure. Afghanistan own interests, that of reaching Makran coast, will force it to do something against Durand line accord. Pakistan must take full use of such mistake. This mistake will probably take decades to be committed but this is a long term plan and Pakistan must be on its toes.
Until then Pakistan should make CPEC its success story and desperately needs to provide jobs, infrastructure and other services to its under developed eastern region (FATA/GB/Baluchistan). It also needs to expand its tax net and control widespread corruption.
While regional and international circumstances have no doubt conspired against Pakistan, the latter should leave no stone upturned in looking out, shamelessly, for its own interest. Combating international terrorism, building a sound infrastructure along Pakistan-Afghan border and cleansing its own fractious tribal belt of foreign militants. At the same time, there is a dire need in setting its political house in order by co-opting major political parties.
And before some Afghan troll call me Punjabi etc, I am a Pashtun. Zen Pashtun yum.
Asfandyar Bhittani
twitter @bhittanikhannnn
