Let keep this discussion rational and polite. Infantry will never fight warships and vice versa. Tigers don't fight sharks. But infantry can surely win battles against jet fighters, equipped with MANPAD and some nice anti-aircraft weapons they can take down a lot of flying objects just ask the Soviets in Afghanistan. The Stingers change the dynamic and the course of that war and we all know the result. Fighter jets can do a lot damage but never win battles, you need boots on the ground.
I wrote 90 millions not to scare you but for you to do the math (you love numbers..
), we all know how much troop you need to occupy a country by the population...In case of VN, it's in millions of troop. China may not be interested of Viet Nam land but China surely want those islands in Spratley. PLA will probably be able to that a few but it will be costly. PLA need to control the sea and air space before landing the marines on those islands. I Think the VPA submarines & fast attack boats, coastal and AAA missiles can do a lot of damage to PLA.
If one day the PLA try to invade those islands, I think VPA with it large infantry navy (30 000) will try to invade 1-2 Chinese islands close to Viet Nam. With it large and competent commando units, VPA will certainly repeat the 1979 war, sending commando units inside China for sabotages and disrupt the supply lines...Until diplomatic negotiation for peace.
A couple things bug me about PLA, the 1st is with that huge flood of new and sophisticated weapons, how PLA will be good in real combat situation? 2nd is with one child policy (2 for countryside family), how long the Chinese society can support a war when dead bodies start to come back home?
China is a top superpower with a super economy, super population and super ambitions, so of course China need to produce their own weapons, buying from others countries make you look weak and make you vulnerable. Viet Nam is just a midsize country with a midsize economy with average ambitions. So what is wrong for a midsize country (who was just like China 20 years+ ago riding bicycles) buying sophisticated weapons with their own money (not donations by other superpower nations). Respect to China for buying sophisticated weapons those last 30 years, copy and upgrade them when China is capable. Viet Nam is just doing the same thing but we are just behind China +10 years (because we are not a superpower...), eventually Viet Nam will be capable to produce them later. So please, just put yourself into a midsize person (vietnamese) and you will understand why we celebrate those hightech purchases. So for calling a question stupid make your answer look stupid
Please stop thinking China can take the whole South China sea when she want, unless you put all the countries in the region on their knees. We are not in the 19th century with Empires and colonies. The cost for the Spratley is too costly and China can certainly take a piece here and there but not the whole cake.
Yes, I agree that let's make the conversation in a rational and polite way. I'll stop using the word like stupid, meanwhile, could you plz. urge other VN PDFer on this thread stop using the insult tone like "crawl back into the shitty hole that you called home"? Agree?
Thanks for the response. Let me make a quick summary of your long message:
- you believe the the infantry units could contribute to VN for a victory against China. The detailed approaches include: a) deploy a big amount of manpower on the islands to defend the attack; b) send a large infantry unit to attack 1 or 2 Chinese islands; c) shoot down the Chinese fighters via portable missiles; d) attack Yunnan or Guangxi of China
- you believe Vietnam will bring a big casualty to China, which will make the one-child society hard to bear
- you believe Vietnam is 10years behind China in terms of military industry capability, but Vietnam is now quickly catching up.
Now I will try to address each of the points that you put:
1-a: deploy a big amount of manpower on the islands to defend the attack.
I'm not sure about the exact size of the VN controlled islands in the South China Sea. But even the largest island that you controlled won't be larger than 1km2, or 1000m x 1000m. You could put as many soldiers as you want on the tiny island, but the problem here is:
- an ultra high infantry density will cause horrible casualty to Vietnam. Just imagine how many people a 250kg aerial bomb could kill if it hits a big crowds
- how could you feed these units in war time? All the necessary supplies, even water, needs to be shipped from the land to the islands. This won't be an issue in peaceful time. But now we are talking about war time, how could you guarantee the safety of your supply lines? You really think you could get the command of the sea in war time?
1-b: send a large infantry unit to attack 1 or 2 Chinese islands
this is again a question of command of the sea. Could you get it from the PLA Navy and the PLA Airforce?
1-c: shoot down the Chinese fighters via portable missiles
I don't deny the possibility fully. But the situation on the small islands is completely different to the USSR/Afghanistan war. The massive size of Afghanistan, as well as its mountainous terrain leaves USSR no other choice but to send its helicopters or fixed-wings planes to fly very low and make the attack within the visual range. The USSR pilots have no ideas where the threaten is, maybe from the bottom, or from the right side, or the left side, or even from the above (e.g. when the plane/helicopter is flying at the bottom of the canyon).
But this is completely not the case for a battle on a small island! We have plenty of long-range missiles to attack the island; the Chinese pilots also don't need to worry about a sudden attack from nowhere, all they need to focus is the small island (1000m x 1000m)!
1-d: attack Yunnan or Guangxi of China
I said on this thread again and again that we don't have any interests in the VN land. But that doesn't mean our ground units in Guangxi or Yunnan will be in vacation during the war time. They will be in full preparation for any land assaults from Vietnam. What I want to remind you is that, if the battle concentrates on the sea and the islands alone, this is still a regional conflict that within control. At least the VN cities could be in safety. But if any land assaults made by Vietnam, we will do an immediate revenge. Even Hanoi will be in extreme danger. We could only guarantee the safety of the tomb of Uncle Ho, because we respect him fully as we respect Mao.
2. You believe Vietnam will bring a big casualty to China, which will make the one-child society hard to bear
I don't expect a zero-death victory. That is impossible. But it doesn't mean Vietnam could make a big casualty to China. Could you get the command of the air? the command of the sea? If you don't have any, how could you make a big casualty to China?
One child policy brings us huge benefits, but also with many social problems. The affordability of war casualty is one of it. But that doesn't mean we thereof become vulnerable. In especially for a war that gaining back the islands or the sea that belonging to us!
BYW, it is too risky to place the victory bet on the so called "mentally vulnerable" of your opponent.
3. you believe Vietnam is 10years behind China in terms of military industry capability.
10 year gap means theoretically that Vietnam should be capable of the things we did in 2004 or 2005. We built our own 052C class destroyers in 2005. Do you mean that Vietnam is capable of this today? We built our own J10 in 1990s', so there must be many VN J10 in service now! Am I right? If J10 is still too complicated for you today, how about MIG21? We built J7 in 1960s', is Vietnam capable of making its own MIG21 today? Tell me your answer! Can, or cannot?
There is nothing more dangerous than underestimate your opponent, in particular it is a much stronger guy than you. But now I do have the feeling that some VN PDFers on this thread have such tendency. Some one said the defence spending ratio is China 10 vs Vietnam 1, but in fact it is 50 vs 1; now you said VN is 10 years behind China for military industry, but in fact it is at least 40 or 50 years gap. And the big spending of China is enlarging the gap constantly. Even if one day VN achieves China's capability today, how far China could go?
Finally, you couldn't stop me believe China could get back all the islands on the South China Sea. I believe this just like I believe Brazil could beat China easily in a football match. The capability gap is so huge! No matter how hard our football players perform, there won't be other outcome for a CN vs BR football game.
I know VN wants to beat us eagerly. There exists no short cut, but to work harder for more taxes payment and stronger domestic manufacturing industry!
