Union Budget 2015 -16 : Defense Expectations

[npm]

Over the past few weeks every arm of the defense establishment in press conferences have been expressing concerns about the scarcity of resources ( be it training, equipment, money & other).

With the new union budget around the corner and the subtle hints being dropped by the military institutions, a keen government, an assertive and willing leader who wants to equip and empower the troops, a talented and intelligent NSA in place

q. By how much do you guys think will the govt increase the military budget by? What would be the number be around? (ex: ~60bn?? I would love that)

Please consider the immediate, intermediate and future needs of all the forces.

-NPM

 

[Koovie]

Please consider the immediate, intermediate and future needs of all the forces.

-NPM

Better consider that we are still a developing nation with immense social problems. A 60 billion budget is totally out of proportion!

 

[SR-91]

I see a 20% increase, will probably amount to 48-50 Billion.

 

[sancho]

I see a 20% increase, will probably amount to 48-50 Billion.

We didn't got a major increase when the same minister had Finance and Defence Ministry under control, what makes you think he now will freely spend that much? GDP is growing, but the government has to push several reforms on economy and infrastructure now and at the same time has to keep the dept under control, which is the main limiting factor.

2011 -12 => $34 billion
2012 -13 => $38.5 billion
2013 -14 => $37.4 billion
2014 -15 => $37.3 billion
2015 -16 => $??? billion

 

[Indo-guy]

We didn't got a major increase when the same minister had Finance and Defence Ministry under control, what makes you think he now will freely spend that much? GDP is growing, but the government has to push several reforms on economy and infrastructure now and at the same time has to keep the dept under control, which is the main limiting factor.

2011 -12 => $34 billion
2012 -13 => $38.5 billion
2013 -14 => $37.4 billion
2014 -15 => $37.3 billion
2015 -16 => $??? billion

Say even if it is going to be 40 billion $ ... 15 % will of MMRCA deal will have to be initial payment....!

with the shortfall in revenue gathered in the form of taxes and RBI pushing GOI for fiscal consolidation ...it is unlikely that we will have any substantial rise in defence budget ...I will not be surprised if it is pegged around 40-42 billion $ ...

 

[Echo_419]

We didn't got a major increase when the same minister had Finance and Defence Ministry under control, what makes you think he now will freely spend that much? GDP is growing, but the government has to push several reforms on economy and infrastructure now and at the same time has to keep the dept under control, which is the main limiting factor.

2011 -12 => $34 billion
2012 -13 => $38.5 billion
2013 -14 => $37.4 billion
2014 -15 => $37.3 billion
2015 -16 => $??? billion

This govt is giving priority to Economy over everything else(which is a good thing) but i still hope they can increase it by some billions

 

[sancho]

Say even if it is going to be 40 billion $ ...imagine half of it will go to MMRCA deal ....!

Around $40 billion should be realistic, but the MMRCA total cost is about 50% of the budget, which however is spread over several years. The initial payment is only about 10% of the total cost, so something around $1.8 billion, not that much of an issue don't you think?

I will not be surprised if it is pegged around 40-42 billion $ ...

That still would be an increase of around 12%, which wouldn't be that bad.

 

[Indo-guy]

Around $40 billion should be realistic, but the MMRCA total cost is about 50% of the budget, which however is spread over several years. The initial payment is only about 10% of the total cost, so something around $1.8 billion, not that much of an issue don't you think?.

I thought initial payment was something like 15% ?
and we just hope that the final deal is something like 18-20 billion and not 30 billion that is being reported in media ( and still a contentious point in ongoing negotiations ) ...
Yeh we pay 160 billion dollars every year for oil imports and similar fantastic amount for gold and electronic imports ...so few billion dollars is not a big deal ...hell 1.2 billion dollars credit line we extended to BD last year ... ( although I know that it is not like giving BD 1.2 billion dollars )
so few billion dollars is not big deal in that sense ....provided it stays that way .

That still would be an increase of around 12%, which wouldn't be that bad.

12 % increase would not be bad ...weather it will be good enough for requirements of armed forces is another question .
I personally feel it is OK .

But given the rapid and massive military modernization that China is undertaking ...Especially keeping in view of our depleting submarine fleet, our plans to raise mountain strike corps etc ....the rise will not be very very significant .

Defence bidget has practically remained static over last few years if we account for inflation , drop in price of rupee etc ...in fact it has shrunk considerably ( if we look carefully ) .

any rise of 10 % is just mere catching up with previously accrued deficit at best...

 

[sancho]

I thought initial payment was something like 15% ?
and we just hope that the final deal is something like 18-20 billion and not 30 billion that is being reported in media ( and still a contentious point in ongoing negotiations ) ...

True 15%, just checked with the DPP, but that still is not a big deal and the $30 billions were always a hoax, just as the fact that the cost is not twice as much now, since it always has to be aimed around $20 billion since the replies of Rafale and EF to the RFP were accepted by the MoD. The media confuses the estimated cost of the earlier MRCA, with the costs of the new fighters in the M-MRCAs. So for the 126 x fighters, even if we assume $150 million system cost per unit, are still roughly $19 billion.

But given the rapid and massive military modernization that China is undertaking ...Especially keeping in view of our depleting submarine fleet, our plans to raise mountain strike corps etc ....the rise will not be very very significant .

There is no realistic way for India or our forces to keep up with Chinas in defence spending or defence industrial capability, which makes it pointless to compare us with them. We have to look at us only, at how much we can spend without going too much into dept and most importantly, how to make the most out of the budget! IAF should spend more on MMRCA, rather than on Apaches for example. IN shouldn't waste money on US-2's or LPD's, but on MPA's and SSK's...

 

[Nilesh Singh]

Around $40 billion should be realistic, but the MMRCA total cost is about 50% of the budget, which however is spread over several years. The initial payment is only about 10% of the total cost, so something around $1.8 billion, not that much of an issue don't you think?




That still would be an increase of around 12%, which wouldn't be that bad.

I second that Sancho, 40$ billion will be good, and we must make sure at least double digit( in higher to mid 10's) increase in defense budget for next decade will make up most of defense requirement. But first priority should be economy, but credible defense capability is also a must for India. I think PM MODI and DM need to be very smart in not wasting too much money in one go in defense and Navy share should increase more in coming years.

 

[SrNair]

When will they present Budget in Parliament?
And I hope a 40-45 billion$ defence budget.

 

[Indo-guy]

There is no realistic way for India or our forces to keep up with Chinas in defence spending or defence industrial capability, which makes it pointless to compare us with them. We have to look at us only, at how much we can spend without going too much into dept and most importantly, how to make the most out of the budget! IAF should spend more on MMRCA, rather than on Apaches for example. IN shouldn't waste money on US-2's or LPD's, but on MPA's and SSK's...

No I am not suggesting to match China's defence budget . It is impossible . and yet it is imperative for us to ratchet our capabilities vis a vis China to forge a capable defending force .
and that makes MRCA so crucial
I agree there is no reason to splurge money on relatively exorbitant but less value for money items like Japanese amphibious planes ,Apache and so on .

we need to invest every dime of money we have wisely ...

Unfortunately Americans have made significant inroads in our purchases ...we have already spent hefty amount on very good yet less important military platforms ...

 

[Koovie]

Say even if it is going to be 40 billion $ ...imagine half of it will go to MMRCA deal ....!

and even if half of it is supposed to stay within India itself ...it is whole lot of money from what is allocated to defense in total ...

with the shortfall in revenue gathered in the form of taxes and RBI pushing GOI for fiscal consolidation ...it is unlikely that we will have any substantial rise in defence budget ...I will not be surprised if it is pegged around 40-42 billion $ ...

Nonsense... the money wont be spent in one go.

 

[Dem!god]

india need to spend more on infra and development.... and with increasing economy we can invest more in military...
current prime focus should be on economy building...

 

[Indo-guy]

Nonsense... the money wont be spent in one go.

I know that money weon't be spent in one go ...but even then it is a great amount of money . imagine almost half of current defence budget just for MRCA ..even if that is spread over 7-10 years period .

The example was given only for comparative purpose .