What's new

Unfortunately, Russia is not as clever as China

senheiser

SENIOR MEMBER
Joined
Jun 26, 2012
Messages
4,037
Reaction score
-1
Country
Russian Federation
Location
Germany
Unfortunately, Russia is not as clever as China
27.03.2014

52451.jpeg

AP photo
The decisive and tough position of the Kremlin on the situation around Ukraine was no surprise to the West. Throughout 2013 Russia has demonstrated independence and consistency in defending its national interests. Diplomat Alexander Panov discussed the events of last year in a conversation with the chief editor of Pravda.Ru Inna Novikova.

"I read an opinion of a well-respected expert that the success in Crimea in March of 2014 was based on the successes in Russia's foreign policy in 2013."

"Indeed, it was quite a successful year for the Russian foreign policy. This has to do primarily with the fact that we managed to reduce the risks, the crisis, in the sense that there has been no armed open clash in Syria. It was Russia that had an impact on the Syrian leadership that convinced them to choose chemical disarmament. It was Russia that has become the guarantor that would ensure that the disarmament of Syria will not make it vulnerable to a threat of external forces. Of course, this was a success."
"Was it Russia or Russia and China that played a decisive role in this outcome of the Syrian crisis?

"China was involved to a lesser extent. China is a rather clever state."

"We are clever, too."

"Unfortunately, not really. I believe that we are often too direct; if we want something, we go ahead and do what we need in a rush. The Chinese think in terms of a bigger picture, long term. When they are increasing their presence in global affairs, they are doing it gently, slowly, without sticking out too much."

"Therefore, Syria was Russia's apparent success?"

"Certainly, and it has to do with the fact that Russia timely saw the situation where both the U.S. and the EU were debating whether to fight or not. Obama, generally, was more inclined not to fight. Indeed, why would the Nobel Peace Laureate suddenly start a war?"

"They were paid by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and this is openly discussed."

"I think that the sheikhs paid France, this is why Hollande was so vocal. He was paid more, he has very close relations with Saudi Arabia, and the United States is a wealthy enough country to not depend on Saudi money. France had to work for this money to the fullest. Obama, of course, had doubts, and he hesitated for a long time. Then we realized that through the initiative to destroy chemical weapons, Russia will help to break the impasse. Obama jumped at it. "


"This, I think, was the first time when the Americans abandoned the idea of a declared military strike."

"If the U.S. wanted to fight, they would have hit regardless of Assad's actions. There was a skillful, subtle and brilliant game by the Russian diplomacy. Putin, when he met with G8, clearly and firmly made a proposal that everyone agreed with. Even the fact that when Crimea was annexed to Russia the U.S. has frozen the diplomatic relations with Syria (which, incidentally, is quite a shallow and inconsistent decision) cannot erase our success in Syria."

"Syria was the second victory, because before that there was Snowden, and I think his information was successfully used by our diplomacy ..."

"I have some doubts regarding Snowden. I believe that he was given us by China. He also came to China and likely wanted to stay there. The Chinese have worked with him, but Beijing is now building relationships with the United States, and so Snowden was told to go wherever he wanted. We were in an ambiguous situation, and I think that granting him asylum was a controversial decision."

"What were the risks for Russia?"

"This could have led and did lead to a certain deterioration of the relations. On the other hand, unfortunately, now we do not have the best relations with the United States. I believe that under Obama we could have had more constructive and productive relations because there is no guarantee that the next U.S. president will take a constructive approach towards Russia. Maybe it will be the opposite. We have seen how the Republican candidates generally speak against Russia. There are only two years left until the next election, we'll see. However, the relationship with Obama is not getting better.

"Look at a photo where Putin and Obama are sitting next to each other, their poses send a clear message that these are two people who do not even want to talk to each other. Now take the U.S. and China. The Chinese leader visited California last summer. The two leaders talked for eight hours. Of course, they talked not so much about the economy or contradictions. They talked about something else, and now it is clear that certain agreements on the delimitation of interests have been reached. We do not have any high-level dialogue with the United States."

"This is a strange situation ..."

"Perhaps this is a question for both leaders. It happens at times that there is no relationship between the leaders, no desire or willingness to talk and negotiate."

"But they have to understand that they represent their countries, regardless of personal feelings ..."

"Of course, but in this case for a number of reasons it has not happened. In politics, personal factors are very significant. Remember when Germany was under Schroeder Putin had great relationship with him, and with Merkel it is not all that smooth."

"Let's go back to the successes of our foreign policy. I think that the main success is in the fact that in the hot spots Russia has successfully resisted tough and selfish policy of the USA, this empire that no one contradicted in the last quarter of a century, with the exception of maybe China, sometimes. Everything worked for Washington."

"I agree. But we must admit that now there is one empire, the United States, albeit peculiar, soft, so to speak, but it defines the international climate policy as a whole. We should remember though that empires do not last forever. This is a topic for a separate discussion."

Unfortunately, Russia is not as clever as China - English pravda.ru
 
"China was involved to a lesser extent. China is a rather clever state."

"We are clever, too."

"Unfortunately, not really. I believe that we are often too direct; if we want something, we go ahead and do what we need in a rush. The Chinese think in terms of a bigger picture, long term. When they are increasing their presence in global affairs, they are doing it gently, slowly, without sticking out too much."

The thing to note is that Russia is self-sufficient in terms of oil/gas, not to mention they are also an industrialized country and a former superpower too. So they can easily laugh off Western sanctions, while getting more customers in the East to replace the ones in the West.

China on the other hand, we have not yet completed our current industrialization phase, and we only produce about 2/3 of our oil domestically, we have to import the rest. Our energy demand is just so huge that we are currently unable to meet our demand using purely domestic sources.

We need at least 10-20 more years to complete our current phase of economic expansion, and probably more time than that before we can properly harness our massive reserves of Shale oil/gas, which combined with huge amounts of renewable energy will give us some degree of self-sufficiency in terms of energy resources.

So China going slowly in terms of foreign assertiveness has a lot to do with practicality as well, not just strategy.

Though this weakness can be partially mitigated via our oil and gas pipelines to Russia, which are far more reliable than the sea route.
 
The thing to note is that Russia is self-sufficient in terms of oil/gas, not to mention they are also an industrialized country and a former superpower too. So they can easily laugh off Western sanctions, while getting more customers in the East to replace the ones in the West.

No,Russia can't do that easily.That is the dumbest thing parroted by so many these days but it's utter rubish.I'm telling you this because it's a pitty that grown man embarass themselves with these silly ideeas.In case of a full boycott Russia will crumble but this will also affect the West,albeit not in the same manner.Problem is that Western politicians don't want to take that chance because it will cost jobs,loosing jobs cost them votes and they are slaves to their voting pool.

Even without full sanctions Russia's economy will contract this year which allready is a semi disaster.Russia needed 4-5% growth at least but instead it will have recession.Great success !
 
No,Russia can't do that easily.That is the dumbest thing parroted by so many these days but it's utter rubish.I'm telling you this because it's a pitty that grown man embarass themselves with these silly ideeas.In case of a full boycott Russia will crumble but this will also affect the West,albeit not in the same manner.Problem is that Western politicians don't want to take that chance because it will cost jobs,loosing jobs cost them votes and they are slaves to their voting pool.

Even without full sanctions Russia's economy will contract this year which allready is a semi disaster.Russia needed 4-5% growth at least but instead it will have recession.Great success !

Dude, you are incorrect. Russia will not "crumble".

It will go into "emergency" mode and out will go German cars, European/American planes and Italian clothes. Russia will replace this with it's own goods and others with also come from China.

The problem is that the Western Economies(mainly EU) will go into deep recession as there is no way that the oil and gas could be replaced at such short notice.People need to remember that Russia is the LARGEST energy exporter in the world and it surpasses even Saudi Arabia as it exports massive quantities of both oil and gas.

It is true that the EU could set in motion a 5 year plan to eventually wean itself off Russian oil and gas but this would be expensive and it would give Russia enough time to both increase exports of both oil and gas massively to the Chinese(whose economy is predicted to be as large as the US by then) and also find other large markets like India. India is pretty much Russia's most reliable large ally and will not abandon it easily.

You will not like it but the US/EU have very little option in hurting Russia. Putin is a very smart man and he would have considered all factors before he annexed Crimea.
 
Dude, you are incorrect. Russia will not "crumble".

It will go into "emergency" mode and out will go German cars, European/American planes and Italian clothes. Russia will replace this with it's own goods and others with also come from China.

The problem is that the Western Economies(mainly EU) will go into deep recession as there is no way that the oil and gas could be replaced at such short notice.People need to remember that Russia is the LARGEST energy exporter in the world and it surpasses even Saudi Arabia as it exports massive quantities of both oil and gas.

It is true that the EU could set in motion a 5 year plan to eventually wean itself off Russian oil and gas but this would be expensive and it would give Russia enough time to both increase exports of both oil and gas massively to the Chinese(whose economy is predicted to be as large as the US by then) and also find other large markets like India. India is pretty much Russia's most reliable large ally and will not abandon it easily.

You will not like it but the US/EU have very little option in hurting Russia. Putin is a very smart man and he would have considered all factors before he annexed Crimea.


For the millionth time allready,Russia is hurting only from capital flight and investors unwilling to invest.That is why Russia's economy will contract this year or in the best case see minor growth.This is allready a debacle for Russia.And no,Russia can't switch everything to China,that is pure fantasy.
 
For the millionth time allready,Russia is hurting only from capital flight and investors unwilling to invest.That is why Russia's economy will contract this year or in the best case see minor growth.This is allready a debacle for Russia.And no,Russia can't switch everything to China,that is pure fantasy.

Well EU will not go with energy sanctions so no point debating the what if now.

The UK relies on Russians to inflate the housing boom here and will has made it clear that it will not sanction Russia, so we know that the West Europeans do not care enough for Eastern Europe to hurt their economies.
 
Well EU will not go with energy sanctions so no point debating the what if now.

The UK relies on Russians to inflate the housing boom here and will has made it clear that it will not sanction Russia, so we know that the West Europeans do not care enough for Eastern Europe to hurt their economies.

It has nothing to do about caring for Eastern Europeans,that's just a silly thing you and other cheerleaders throw around here from time to time,luckily for me i've grown immune to retarded statements.I've allready explained why there won't be full sanctions but Europe will take measures which will come into effect in 5-6 years time.Russia is suffering allready and it will only get worse.

Russia,biggest energy exporter and allready suffering recession...as i've said...Great Success !
 
No,Russia can't do that easily.That is the dumbest thing parroted by so many these days but it's utter rubish.I'm telling you this because it's a pitty that grown man embarass themselves with these silly ideeas.In case of a full boycott Russia will crumble but this will also affect the West,albeit not in the same manner.Problem is that Western politicians don't want to take that chance because it will cost jobs,loosing jobs cost them votes and they are slaves to their voting pool.

Even without full sanctions Russia's economy will contract this year which allready is a semi disaster.Russia needed 4-5% growth at least but instead it will have recession.Great success !

So you're saying they can, but they won't.

What's the difference then? :lol:

At the end of the day, Russia is doing whatever they want in Eastern Europe, and the "West" does not care enough to stop them.
 
I believe China being Asian and not Caucasian has helped China in this case.

America more or less views China as inferiors. This has resulted in demonstration of power and lesser regard for our pride as a nation and people.

All in all, this has created the effect they wanted, China isn't going to war or even making a move, but there's a side effect. Chinese generals and politicians are scared of the American war machine. This may sound like a bad thing, but fear is natural and there is only fear if there is understanding, a baby is not going to be scared of a gun because the baby doesn't understand.
Just read the Philippine and Vietnam member's boasting of defeating China, cause they don't understand modern warfare.

China understand full well, what Americans have and what we need to match them and exceed them.

America has made China into a patient state, the worst kind of enemy.


Otto von Bismark tried his best to provoke France which finally resulted in the telegram. He was preparing Prussia for two years, while France just went into war with two weeks of preparation. In the end the more prepared Prussia won.


Russia has achieved "victory," small victory, like France under Napoleon the third did, Crimea, Austrian wars, for Russia it's Syria, and a few other wars.

Putin was over confident. This Crimea thing still may not be the thing to a war, but with this "victory," Putin may over play his hand later.



Just to declare, I'm in favor of Russians, good people, good drinkers, I'm from Liaoning and visits HelongJiang from time to time, good people, excellent drinking companions, beautiful women, good sports, all in all, men were men and women were women.
 
It has nothing to do about caring for Eastern Europeans,that's just a silly thing you and other cheerleaders throw around here from time to time,luckily for me i've grown immune to retarded statements.I've allready explained why there won't be full sanctions but Europe will take measures which will come into effect in 5-6 years time.Russia is suffering allready and it will only get worse.

Dude, Russia has a strategy to reduce it's dependence on the EU by 2020 anyway. It has firm plans to export 1 million barrels of oil and anywhere from 1-2 trillion cubic feet of oil gas to China by then.

India is also likely to become a big importer of Russia oil as India is a firm Russia ally and has already come out to support Russia on the issue.

Russia may not be able to replace all it's exports to the EU by 2020 but it will still be able to sell enough that it's economy remains relatively healthy.

Over the long term(2025 onwards) just the Asian countries like China and India themselves will more than make up for lost EU exports.
 
So you're saying they can, but they won't.

What's the difference then? :lol:

At the end of the day, Russia is doing whatever they want in Eastern Europe, and the "West" does not care enough to stop them.

They're not going all the way but what they're doing is enough to hurt the russians for now.

Eastern Europe ? Is Ukraine,better said Crimeea,entire Eastern Europe now ? Check your map.Eastern European countries like the Baltics,Poland,Romania do what they want and i don't see Russia interfering.

Get your facts straight "think thank".

They're not going all the way but what they're doing is enough to hurt the russians for now.

Eastern Europe ? Is Ukraine,better said Crimeea,entire Eastern Europe now ? Check your map.
Dude, Russia has a strategy to reduce it's dependence on the EU by 2020 anyway. It has firm plans to export 1 million barrels of oil and anywhere from 1-2 trillion cubic feet of oil gas to China by then.

India is also likely to become a big importer of Russia oil as India is a firm Russia ally and has already come out to support Russia on the issue.

Russia may not be able to replace all it's exports to the EU by 2020 but it will still be able to sell enough that it's economy remains relatively healthy.

Over the long term(2025 onwards) just the Asian countries like China and India themselves will more than make up for lost EU exports.


Wrong.
 
They're not going all the way but what they're doing is enough to hurt the russians for now.

Eastern Europe ? Is Ukraine,better said Crimeea,entire Eastern Europe now ? Check your map.Eastern European countries like the Baltics,Poland,Romania do what they want and i don't see Ruussia interfering.

Is the West willing to fight Russia? No.

In fact, they are not even prepared to boycott Russia, because it would hurt their own economies.

Limited sanctions have limited effects, this is just lip-service from the West, they have made it clear they are not willing to hurt themselves in order to stop Russia.
 
Is the West willing to fight Russia? No.

In fact, they are not even prepared to boycott Russia, because it would hurt their own economies.

Limited sanctions have limited effects, this is just lip-service from the West, they have made it clear they are not willing to hurt themselves in order to stop Russia.

For Crimea.Eastern Europe is a no go for Russia just like it was in the last 24 years.Russia lost its influence here.
 
Is the West willing to fight Russia? No.

In fact, they are not even prepared to boycott Russia, because it would hurt their own economies.

Limited sanctions have limited effects, this is just lip-service from the West, they have made it clear they are not willing to hurt themselves in order to stop Russia.


The Germans rely on the Russians for 30 billion dollars of exports every year. No way will the Germans be willing to lose hundreds of thousand of jobs just to show solidarity with Ukraine over Crimea.

The UK is reliant on Russians and the Arabs to buoy the housing market in the UK. In fact the housing boom is the current's governments strategy to win the next election. The Ukrainians will just have to put up with the loss of their territory as the current government cares more for re-election.

France is in the process of selling ships to Russia and is worried about hurting their fragile economy if the sale does not go ahead.

In short, the major EU powers care more for their economic relations with Russians over Ukraine.
 
The Germans rely on the Russians for 30 billion dollars of exports every year. No way will the Germans be willing to lose hundreds of thousand of jobs just to show solidarity with Ukraine over Crimea.

The UK is reliant on Russians and the Arabs to buoy the housing market in the UK. In fact the housing boom is the current's governments strategy to win the next election. The Ukrainians will just have to put up with the loss of their territory as the current government cares more for re-election.

France is in the process of selling ships to Russia and is worried about hurting their fragile economy if the sale does not go ahead.

In short, the major EU powers care more for their economic relations with Russians over Ukraine.

Correct.Over Ukraine.Anythung further and the hammer comes down hard and Putin knows this.As i've said,current steps are enough as Russia's economy plunges into recession.
 
Back
Top Bottom