Ukraine war will make China more cautious on Taiwan, advisers say

[LeGenD]

China is a powerful country with one of the largest and most capable armed forces in the world; China can teach a lesson to an unruly neighbor in a potential conflict but Taiwan is no walkover.

Some countries have the capacity to wage HYBRID warfare while defending themselves (Urban + Guerilla + Cyber + Allies); Taiwan fits the bill in THEORY.

Taiwan's urbanization at a glance:

Source: https://www.guideoftheworld.com/taiwan-map.html

Taiwan's topography at a glance:

Source: https://www.guideoftheworld.com/taiwan-map.html

Taiwan's landscape is surrounded by ocean and a large number of mountains are in the middle.

Ocean makes it impractical for China to insert a huge military force in Taiwan in short order like Russia could do in Ukraine. PLAN have some amphibious assault ships (Type 071 = 8; Type 075 = 2) which can allow a total of 7000 - 8000 troops to be inserted in Taiwan in short order. This is a large and capable force for invading and securing some islands but absolutely insufficient for invading and securing Taiwan as a whole.

Taiwan is investing in mine-warfare applications:

Taiwan adds minelaying ships to defenses against China

Such technologies are part of a strategy to deter any possible invasion from China, with its huge military and vast superiority in numbers of aircraft, ships and other weaponry.

www.defensenews.com

Chinese armed forces can attempt to clear mines which are detected in open spaces suitable for inserting troops but additional factors will come into play as highlighted below.

Taiwan is developing and operationalizing cruise missiles in large numbers:

Missiles of Taiwan | Missile Threat

Taiwan’s missile program makes up a substantial element of its deterrence posture against the People’s Republic of China (PRC), its primary security concern. Historically, Taiwan has limited the composition of its missile forces to mostly defensive assets, such as antiship cruise missiles and...

missilethreat.csis.org

Taiwan Mass Producing New Long-Range Missile

The announcement followed January tests and included news of three more missiles in development.

thediplomat.com

These cruise missiles can be used to engage Chinese warships (and more).

PLAN might suffer losses while attempting to deploy troops in Taiwan, therefore.

Taiwan also have an Air Force* and A2/AD arrangements to engage PLAAF jet fighters.

*RoCAF F-16 fleet is becoming formidable with 62 jet fighters uplifted to V standard and more in pipeline.

In case of loss of airbases, F-16 can be made to take off from highways and/or from underground hangers in Chiayi and Chiashan respectively.

PLAAF is large enough to accept heavy losses and establish air superiority over Taiwan in theory but the story does not end here.

Taiwan have also developed a vast network of military infrastructure beneath the mountains with camouflaged outlets for cruise missiles to be unleashed on enemy positions. This infrastructure is designed with survivability in mind.

Source: https://defense-update.com/20120604...les-with-range-to-reach-chinese-mainland.html

Taiwan is also observing developments in Ukraine for valuable insight:

Taiwan Studying Ukraine War Tactics, Discussing With US

The island has raised its alert level since the Russian invasion

www.voanews.com

IF Taiwanese are willing to fight like Ukrainians then they can prevent a military takeover of the island and regime change efforts by extension; courage matters in the end.

Taiwan's ACE could still be the global significance of TSMC which might motivate foreign assistance on the lines of developments in Ukraine. But Taiwanese will also have to fight and prove themselves in war much like Ukrainians.

Time will tell.

I know them inside out, one of my relatives is in the air force, he told me, when war comes, most ROC soldiers will desert. And if PRC gives asylum and migration to mainland, you will see them scrambling like rats, the DPP types would opt for Japan or US, those who stay back are numbs numbs.

See above.

I do not think that they will be honest with you about what they will do in case of war. They might be under oath to not tell anybody anything in this regard.

People were expecting Ukraine to FOLD to mighty Russians in 2022 [after] their dismal showing in Crimea in 2014.

One way to find out is to take your chances there.

 

[Rafi]

China is a powerful country with one of the largest and most capable armed forces in the world; China can teach a lesson to an unruly neighbor in a potential conflict but Taiwan is no walkover.

Some countries have the capacity to wage HYBRID warfare while defending themselves (Urban + Guerilla + Cyber + Allies); Taiwan fits the bill in THEORY.

Taiwan's urbanization at a glance:

Source: https://www.guideoftheworld.com/taiwan-map.html

Taiwan's topography at a glance:

Source: https://www.guideoftheworld.com/taiwan-map.html

Taiwan's landscape is surrounded by ocean and a large number of mountains are in the middle.

Ocean makes it impractical for China to insert a huge military force in Taiwan in short order like Russia could do in Ukraine. PLAN have some amphibious assault ships (Type 071 = 8; Type 075 = 2) which can allow a total of 7000 - 8000 troops to be inserted in Taiwan in short order. This is a large and capable force for invading and securing some islands but absolutely insufficient for invading and securing Taiwan as a whole.

Taiwan is investing in mine-warfare applications:

Taiwan adds minelaying ships to defenses against China

Such technologies are part of a strategy to deter any possible invasion from China, with its huge military and vast superiority in numbers of aircraft, ships and other weaponry.

www.defensenews.com

Chinese armed forces can attempt to clear mines which are detected in open spaces suitable for inserting troops but additional factors will come into play as highlighted below.

Taiwan is developing and operationalizing cruise missiles in large numbers:

Missiles of Taiwan | Missile Threat

Taiwan’s missile program makes up a substantial element of its deterrence posture against the People’s Republic of China (PRC), its primary security concern. Historically, Taiwan has limited the composition of its missile forces to mostly defensive assets, such as antiship cruise missiles and...

missilethreat.csis.org

Taiwan Mass Producing New Long-Range Missile

The announcement followed January tests and included news of three more missiles in development.

thediplomat.com

These cruise missiles can be used to engage Chinese warships (and more).

PLAN might suffer losses while attempting to deploy troops in Taiwan, therefore.

Taiwan also have an Air Force* and A2/AD arrangements to engage PLAAF jet fighters.

*RoCAF F-16 fleet is becoming formidable with 62 jet fighters uplifted to V standard and more in pipeline.

In case of loss of airbases, F-16 can be made to take off from highways and/or from underground hangers in Chiayi and Chiashan respectively.

PLAAF is large enough to accept heavy losses and establish air superiority over Taiwan in theory but the story does not end here.

Taiwan have also developed a vast network of military infrastructure beneath the mountains with camouflaged outlets for cruise missiles to be unleashed on enemy positions. This infrastructure is designed with survivability in mind.

Source: https://defense-update.com/20120604...les-with-range-to-reach-chinese-mainland.html

Taiwan is also observing developments in Ukraine for valuable insight:

Taiwan Studying Ukraine War Tactics, Discussing With US

The island has raised its alert level since the Russian invasion

www.voanews.com

IF Taiwanese are willing to fight like Ukrainians then they can prevent a military takeover of the island and regime change efforts by extension; courage matters in the end.

Taiwan's ACE could still be the global significance of TSMC which might motivate foreign assistance on the lines of developments in Ukraine. But Taiwanese will also have to fight and prove themselves in war much like Ukrainians.

Time will tell.


See above.

I do not think that they will be honest with you about what they will do in case of war. They might be under oath to not tell anybody anything in this regard.

People were expecting Ukraine to FOLD to mighty Russians in 2022 [after] their dismal showing in Crimea in 2014.

One way to find out is to take your chances there.

Taiwan is landlocked, a naval blockade could starve them alongside a blistering PGM and cruise missiles onslaught for months on end.

 

[denel]

Taiwan is landlocked, a naval blockade could starve them alongside a blistering PGM and cruise missiles onslaught for months on end.

Frankly, entire thread is a hypothetical blurb and macho bravado trying to replicate Russian fiasco. In reality if the Chinese have been following the Russian lead; Taiwanese are no walk over.

In reality; it will be very painful. Even if the island is taken over; there is a nuclear umbrella which will extend over from the US.

You can blockade which is a declaration of war; truly a folly of epic proportion.

 

[LeGenD]

Taiwan is landlocked, a naval blockade could starve them alongside a blistering PGM and cruise missiles onslaught for months on end.

IF the PLAN can withstand Taiwanese sniping efforts with cruise missiles. Taiwan have operationalized and fielded extensive radar network across the island to facilitate in this regard. Chinese can/will attempt to degrade this network of-course but USA can provide much-needed INTEL and enable communications for Taiwanese defenses from a distance much like they are doing for Ukraine.

Taiwan also have TSMC card to play which might invite global reactions and response.

Taiwan’s ‘silicon shield’: Why island may not be the next Ukraine

Self-ruled island’s dominance in semiconductors is seen by some analysts as a deterrent against an invasion by Beijing.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

China is a powerful country with one of the largest and most capable armed forces in the world; China can teach a lesson to an unruly neighbor in a potential conflict but Taiwan is no walkover.

Some countries have the capacity to wage HYBRID warfare while defending themselves (Urban + Guerilla + Cyber + Allies); Taiwan fits the bill in THEORY.

Taiwan's urbanization at a glance:

Source: https://www.guideoftheworld.com/taiwan-map.html

Taiwan's topography at a glance:

Source: https://www.guideoftheworld.com/taiwan-map.html

Taiwan's landscape is surrounded by ocean and a large number of mountains are in the middle.

Ocean makes it impractical for China to insert a huge military force in Taiwan in short order like Russia could do in Ukraine. PLAN have some amphibious assault ships (Type 071 = 8; Type 075 = 2) which can allow a total of 7000 - 8000 troops to be inserted in Taiwan in short order. This is a large and capable force for invading and securing some islands but absolutely insufficient for invading and securing Taiwan as a whole.

Taiwan is investing in mine-warfare applications:

Taiwan adds minelaying ships to defenses against China

Such technologies are part of a strategy to deter any possible invasion from China, with its huge military and vast superiority in numbers of aircraft, ships and other weaponry.

www.defensenews.com

Chinese armed forces can attempt to clear mines which are detected in open spaces suitable for inserting troops but additional factors will come into play as highlighted below.

Taiwan is developing and operationalizing cruise missiles in large numbers:

Missiles of Taiwan | Missile Threat

Taiwan’s missile program makes up a substantial element of its deterrence posture against the People’s Republic of China (PRC), its primary security concern. Historically, Taiwan has limited the composition of its missile forces to mostly defensive assets, such as antiship cruise missiles and...

missilethreat.csis.org

Taiwan Mass Producing New Long-Range Missile

The announcement followed January tests and included news of three more missiles in development.

thediplomat.com

These cruise missiles can be used to engage Chinese warships (and more).

PLAN might suffer losses while attempting to deploy troops in Taiwan, therefore.

Taiwan also have an Air Force* and A2/AD arrangements to engage PLAAF jet fighters.

*RoCAF F-16 fleet is becoming formidable with 62 jet fighters uplifted to V standard and more in pipeline.

In case of loss of airbases, F-16 can be made to take off from highways and/or from underground hangers in Chiayi and Chiashan respectively.

PLAAF is large enough to accept heavy losses and establish air superiority over Taiwan in theory but the story does not end here.

Taiwan have also developed a vast network of military infrastructure beneath the mountains with camouflaged outlets for cruise missiles to be unleashed on enemy positions. This infrastructure is designed with survivability in mind.

Source: https://defense-update.com/20120604...les-with-range-to-reach-chinese-mainland.html

Taiwan is also observing developments in Ukraine for valuable insight:

Taiwan Studying Ukraine War Tactics, Discussing With US

The island has raised its alert level since the Russian invasion

www.voanews.com

IF Taiwanese are willing to fight like Ukrainians then they can prevent a military takeover of the island and regime change efforts by extension; courage matters in the end.

Taiwan's ACE could still be the global significance of TSMC which might motivate foreign assistance on the lines of developments in Ukraine. But Taiwanese will also have to fight and prove themselves in war much like Ukrainians.

Time will tell.


See above.

I do not think that they will be honest with you about what they will do in case of war. They might be under oath to not tell anybody anything in this regard.

People were expecting Ukraine to FOLD to mighty Russians in 2022 [after] their dismal showing in Crimea in 2014.

One way to find out is to take your chances there.

A small land surrounded by water is recipe for disaster. The powerful Chinese navy and land based aircraft and missiles can easily impose a blockade and starve the defenders out. Taiwan has very little habitable land and they are mostly along the coast, the rest is all mountain.

Taiwan also have TSMC card to play which might invite global reactions and response.

Perhaps. But China has way more territory and people and resources. Whatever chips Taiwan can make, China can make many times as many chips as Taiwan can make.

 

[Luosifen]

Americans extending a nuclear umbrella over an island they don't even officially recognize as a country? Risking the lives of 300+ million Americans for ~24 million Asians in a nuclear exchange? They don't even extend this umbrella for the Ukrainians who have an even bigger population and is a formally recognized country.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

The agony of Taiwanese people is not worth the war. If Taiwan even dares to launch an attack on Chinese mainland in retaliation then China will show no mercy. An attack on a 9.6 million square kilometers country don't do much damage but an attack on a 36,000 square kilometers country does a lot of damage.

@LeGenD @F-22Raptor @gambit

 

[gambit]

A hint: The USN SEAL came in 2nd last.

So much for the myth about superior Western Military training.

Hint: Do you really think the USN SEAL care about coming in last? As far as special ops groups goes, the SEAL is among the most combat experienced in the world. They probably took on that contest just for beer money.

The invasion of Taiwan is estimated to be greater than D-Day, and here is D-Day...

In order for the invasion to fail, Taiwanese defenders just have to destroy/damage 1/4 of the invasion force en route. Then whatever remainders that managed to land, some more will be destroyed on the landing site, then urban warfare will do to the PLA troops what the Ukrainians are doing to the Russians.

 

[S10]

Without a modern airpower doctrine, the J-20 is worthless.

Without realizing US is not the only world power anymore, you're wor

Hint: Do you really think the USN SEAL care about coming in last? As far as special ops groups goes, the SEAL is among the most combat experienced in the world. They probably took on that contest just for beer money.

The invasion of Taiwan is estimated to be greater than D-Day, and here is D-Day...

In order for the invasion to fail, Taiwanese defenders just have to destroy/damage 1/4 of the invasion force en route. Then whatever remainders that managed to land, some more will be destroyed on the landing site, then urban warfare will do to the PLA troops what the Ukrainians are doing to the Russians.

Heh Cold War relic here thinks this is still 1940's.

A landing force would not be en route until total air dominance has been achieved, Taiwan's C3I massively degraded, and with armed drones/satellite covering every square kilometer near landing site providing instantaneous intelligence update.

That's assuming the defenders still have the will to resist and not fade away like the Iraqi military did in 2003.

Let me remind you that for all intents and purposes, China is the bigger industrial power and economy compared to US today. For all of Russia's military blunders, they've captured territories twice the size of Taiwan in the opening week of this war.

 

[gambit]

Without realizing US is not the only world power anymore,...

There are always other powers. The issue is how far away they are from US.

Heh Cold War relic here thinks this is still 1940's.

A landing force would not be en route until total air dominance has been achieved,...

But the problem is that China have a limited window for to launch the invasion fleet, and that small window is created by the weather. You do not know how long it will take to get that air dominance. But not only does the weather limit the surface strait crossing, the weather also limit the time for the PLAAF to get that air dominance. Maybe you should go study some of that Cold War military history.

That's assuming the defenders still have the will to resist and not fade away like the Iraqi military did in 2003.

Let me remind you that for all intents and purposes, China is the bigger industrial power and economy compared to US today. For all of Russia's military blunders, they've captured territories twice the size of Taiwan in the opening week of this war.

Here is an op-ed from The Atlantic mag that is relevant to everyone...

About the author: Phillips Payson O’Brien is a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. He is the author of How the War Was Won: Air-Sea Power and Allied Victory in World War II.​

​

Let me tell you a story about a military that was supposedly one of the best in the world. This military had some of the best equipment: the heaviest and most modern tanks, next-generation aircraft, and advanced naval vessels. It had invested in modernization, and made what were considered some of Europe’s most sophisticated plans for conflict. Moreover, it had planned and trained specifically for a war it was about to fight, a war it seemed extremely well prepared for and that many, perhaps most, people believed it would win.​

​

All of these descriptions could apply to the Russian army that invaded Ukraine last month. But I’m talking about the French army of the 1930s. That French force was considered one of the finest on the planet. Winston Churchill believed that it represented the world’s best hope for keeping Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Germany at bay. As he said famously in 1933, and repeated a number of times afterward, “Thank God for the French army.”​

​

Of course, when this French army was actually tested in battle, it was found wanting. Germany conquered France in less than two months in 1940. All of the French military’s supposed excellence in equipment and doctrine was useless. A range of problems, including poor logistics, terrible communications, and low morale, beset an army in which soldiers and junior officers complained of inflexible, top-down leadership. In 1940, the French had the “best” tank, the Char B-1. With its 75-mm gun, the Char B-1 was better armed than any German tank, and it outclassed the Germans in terms of armor protection as well. But when the Battle of France started, the Char B-1 exhibited a number of major handicaps, such as a gas-guzzling engine and mechanical unreliability.​

​

Having good equipment and good doctrine reveals little about how an army will perform in a war. To predict that, you must analyze not only its equipment and doctrine but also its ability to undertake complex operations, its unglamorous but crucial logistical needs and structure, and the commitment of its soldiers to fight and die in the specific war being waged. Most important, you have to think about how it will perform when a competent enemy fires back. As Mike Tyson so eloquently put it, “Everyone has a plan until they are punched in the mouth.”​

​

What we are seeing today in Ukraine is the result of a purportedly great military being punched in the mouth. The resilience of Ukrainian resistance is embarrassing for a Western think-tank and military community that had confidently predicted that the Russians would conquer Ukraine in a matter of days. For years, Western “experts” prattled on about the Russian military’s expensive, high-tech “modernization.” The Russians, we were told, had the better tanks and aircraft, including cutting-edge SU-34 fighter bombers and T-90 tanks, with some of the finest technical specifications in the world. The Russians had also ostensibly reorganized their army into a more professional, mostly voluntary force. They had rethought their offensive doctrine and created battalion tactical groups, flexible, heavily armored formations that were meant to be key to overwhelming the Ukrainians. Basically, many people had relied on the glamour of war, a sort of war pornography, to predict the outcome of Russia’s invasion of its neighbor.​

​

Those predictions, based on alluring but fundamentally flawed criteria, have now proved false. Western analysts took basic metrics (such as numbers and types of tanks and aircraft), imagined those measured forces executing Russian military doctrine, then concluded that the Ukrainians had no chance. But counting tanks and planes and rhapsodizing over their technical specifications is not a useful way to analyze modern militaries. As The Atlantic’s Eliot Cohen has argued, the systems that the West used to evaluate the Russian military have failed nearly as comprehensively as that military has.​

​

Though analysts and historians will spend years arguing about exactly why prewar assessments of the Russian military proved so flawed, two reasons are immediately apparent. First, Western analysts misunderstood the Russian military’s ability to undertake the most complex operations and the robustness of its logistical capabilities. And second, prognosticators paid too little attention to the basic motivations and morale of the soldiers who would be asked to use the Russian military’s allegedly excellent doctrine and equipment.​

​

Russia’s problems executing complex operations became obvious almost immediately after its army crossed the border into Ukraine. For instance, many observers believed that the large, advanced Russian air force would quickly gain air dominance over Ukraine, providing the Russian land forces with support while severely limiting the Ukrainians’ movement. Instead, the Ukrainians have put in place a far more sophisticated than expected air-defense system that stymied Russian air efforts from the start. By challenging the Russians in the air, the Ukrainians have shown that Russia’s army cannot efficiently conduct the complex air operations needed to seize air supremacy from a much smaller enemy. Russia’s logistical system has been, if anything, even worse. Russian trucks are poorly maintained, poorly led, and too few in number. Once the Russian forces advanced, they found that bringing up the supplies needed to keep them moving forward became more and more difficult. Many advances, most famously the 40-mile column of vehicles stretching down to Kyiv from Belarus, simply stopped.​

​

At the same time, the supposedly professional volunteer Russian soldiers were confused as to what they were doing, totally unprepared to meet stiff Ukrainian resistance, and, from photo evidence, surprisingly willing to abandon even the most advanced Russian equipment almost untouched. As the war has gone on, and Russian casualties have mounted, Russian soldiers have fallen victim to frostbite, refused to follow orders, and, in at least one episode, tried to kill their superior officers.​

​

More of the Western experts who study Russia’s armed forces could and should have anticipated these problems. The Russian military has not been asked to undertake complex technological or logistical operations for at least three decades. Its more recent military actions, such as the bombing of Syria, were quite straightforward operations, in which aircraft could be used to terrorize an enemy that could not efficiently fire back.​

​

To truly understand a military’s effectiveness, analysts must investigate not only how it looks on a spreadsheet but also how it may function in the chaos and pressure of a battlefield. War is an extremely difficult and complex business. Western strategists cannot go back in time and alter their earlier assessments. Any system with a widespread consensus that an excellent and modernized Russian military would conquer Ukraine in a matter of days is a system in crisis. We can, and must, try to do better next time. If world leaders have a better understanding of the potential difficulties of any war in East Asia, for example, perhaps they will realize how hard the outcome of such a confrontation is to predict. If the Chinese tried an amphibious landing on Taiwan, for instance, they would be undertaking maybe the most complex wartime operation, and one that their military has never attempted before. I can’t tell you what would happen, but I know it would not go according to plan. War never does.​

Your PLA was wrong about US in Desert Storm and like it or not, the PLA is wrong about Ukraine as well. Everyone was wrong. You guys on this forum are even worse in that your opinions depends SOLELY on the 'shiny new toys' foundation which is understandable considering none of you ever served and that on this forum you guys consistently displayed a disdain for history. Everyone was wrong about Ukraine, so what make YOU think you are correct about Taiwan?

 

[mazeto]

The Ukraine war will make China cautious on the economic front ( sanctions), but they now rest assured no military help of any kind is forthcoming to Taiwan. And since Taiwan can be blockaded, they won't have meddlers sending their surplus antitanks and SAMs to Taipei..

 

[jhungary]

War are always easy when you are sitting in the side-line watching.

When you are the one that are tasked to storm the beachhead, that's a completely different story.

Before this war, I remember some member here say "You just need to use missile" in case you have not noticed, Russia used 1300 tactical missile over 28 days, something not even the US had used that many, they even used a hypersonic missile. So do tell me, when is Ukraine surrendering??

Was gonna think this Russian - Ukrainian war would talk some sense into people's simplification on war, but well. I guess some people just never learn.

 

[chinasun]

Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan with many Chinese military generals. At present, the vast majority of the political, media and economic circles are still Chinese mainland people. We just need to prove that the United States cannot protect Taiwan. Taiwan will compromise more quickly. We are not trying to occupy Taiwan, we just want Taiwan to return to one China. Just like Hong Kong.
As long as the power goes out for a month, Taiwan will give up its independence. After all, Taiwan's constitution is now the Republic of China, which has not changed in 70 years.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Ukraine / Russia comparison has little to do with Taiwan / China comparison. Taiwan is far weaker than Ukraine. China is far stronger than Russia.

War are always easy when you are sitting in the side-line watching.

When you are the one that are tasked to storm the beachhead, that's a completely different story.

Before this war, I remember some member here say "You just need to use missile" in case you have not noticed, Russia used 1300 tactical missile over 28 days, something not even the US had used that many, they even used a hypersonic missile. So do tell me, when is Ukraine surrendering??

Was gonna think this Russian - Ukrainian war would talk some sense into people's simplification on war, but well. I guess some people just never learn.

Ukraine is Russia's playground. You make fun of agony of Ukrainians. You are a sicko.

 

[Rafi]

IF the PLAN can withstand Taiwanese sniping efforts with cruise missiles. Taiwan have operationalized and fielded extensive radar network across the island to facilitate in this regard. Chinese can/will attempt to degrade this network of-course but USA can provide much-needed INTEL and enable communications for Taiwanese defenses from a distance much like they are doing for Ukraine.

Taiwan also have TSMC card to play which might invite global reactions and response.

Taiwan’s ‘silicon shield’: Why island may not be the next Ukraine

Self-ruled island’s dominance in semiconductors is seen by some analysts as a deterrent against an invasion by Beijing.

www.aljazeera.com

Exercises by the US military have shown that the PLA wins in 9 out of ten scenarios, and the PLAN and PLAAF and also SRF and the GF are only getting stronger year after year.

In the late 20's and early 30's when China will make it's move, the US will not be able to do anything to stop China, and Taiwan will have to bend the knee or be utterly destroyed.

IF the PLAN can withstand Taiwanese sniping efforts with cruise missiles. Taiwan have operationalized and fielded extensive radar network across the island to facilitate in this regard. Chinese can/will attempt to degrade this network of-course but USA can provide much-needed INTEL and enable communications for Taiwanese defenses from a distance much like they are doing for Ukraine.

Taiwan also have TSMC card to play which might invite global reactions and response.

Taiwan’s ‘silicon shield’: Why island may not be the next Ukraine

Self-ruled island’s dominance in semiconductors is seen by some analysts as a deterrent against an invasion by Beijing.

www.aljazeera.com

Taiwan will face cyber attacks that will cripple all civil and military systems, you will have thousands of cruise and ballistic missiles flying in, and with a blockade (Taiwan imports most of its food and raw materials) their economy will collapse within months.