I doubt Russia will do much here. Turkey risked the event to come out as the hero to all the Islamists, and i think their plan will work in the short term, because I don't see how Russia can escalate it. I don't think they will even be willing to cut the gas to Turkey.
However, Russia is the one that has been learning hard lessons recently. If we ignore the fanboys here, reality is more complex. Russia needs to realize that it needs to have better allies. Since the breakup of USSR, it thought it would be accepted by Europe & USA, therefore, it never really made much effort to be considered as a reliable ally to the Asians.
But since the last decade, it seems to realize that Europe & USA don't consider them as part of their club, and without allies, Russia will remain at risk. It needs to have stronger alliances with China, with Syria, with Iran, with Pakistan, to be able to create an Asian alliance. At the moment, no Asian country will be willing to put itself at risk to defend Russia's right.
Hopefully, Putin will consider this for the future of the country, but we don't see much hope yet. Putin did nothing to help their ally in Libya, and they came to Syria's support 4 years too late, and they have been backstabbing Iran regarding nuclear files constantly. It has never also stood strong with China to better support North Korea.
Let's see if this incident will teach the Russians a lesson to the great importance of alliances.
