US to Spill the Beans
Security has nosedived for three reasons: The drawdown of US troops was too fast and down to too little, from 1,40,000 to 9800; uncertainty in US Afghanistan policy caused by the transition from Obama to Trump; egged by Pakistan, Taliban has altered the military balance in its favour.
The Trump policy on Afghanistan was expected in April but was put on hold as Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson wanted to re-hyphenate Afghanistan with Pakistan (Af-Pak). Gen John Nicholson, US Commander Resolute Force, is expecting the Af-Pak policy directive from Defence Secretary James Mattis latest by Tuesday 18 July. This will allow US commanders in Afghanistan to reassure Afghans that US has enduring interest in the country.
The NUG has evolved a four-year roadmap for 2017-20 for enhancing Afghanistan National Security Force (ANSF)’s fighting capabilities as agreed at this May’s Warsaw NATO summit. It will include the expected modest increase of 3,000 US and 10,000 NATO soldiers, with an elaborate US air support plan for ANSF, and special forces which will include F-16 aircraft, B52 bombers, Black Hawk helicopters and refuelling tankers. The US and the West will bear the cost of Afghanistan’s security and economy.
Pakistan as a Frenemy
The biggest impediment to the US-Afghanistan duo trying to take over Taliban and the peace process is frenemy Pakistan, whose behaviour hasn’t changed despite money, love and even punitive threats. Afghanistan’s National Security Advisor Hanif Atmar has warned of surgical strikes against Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan.
US Commanders are expecting the new Mattis policy will allow deeper coercive drone strikes on Taliban, Haqqani, ISIS and even ISI commanders but fear Pakistani reprisals including cutting off US ground lines of communication as they did after Osama bin Laden was taken out of Abbottabad.
Clearly, a change in Islamabad’s behaviour to bring the Taliban to the table as part of the peace process is key to peace and stability in Afghanistan, as a military solution is unfeasible.
For the US, the new spoilers are Russia and China, with both being on good terms with Pakistan. Russia wants to do to the US what the latter did to the USSR in the late 1980s; use Afghan Mujahideen to oust them from Afghanistan. China is generally playing a negative role, taking the cue from Pakistan.
Will Indian Troops be Deployed in Afghanistan?
New Delhi remains Kabul’s historic and steadfast ally. The Pentagon’s latest report on Afghanistan states that India is the most reliable friend of the Kabul regime. This has been confirmed by several media polls.
India’s impressive $3 billion development assistance and capacity building programmes include an elaborate military training and equipment component under the India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership 2011 – Kabul’s first with any country.
Like Indian troops were considered for service in Iraq at US’ request in 2003, their deployment in Afghanistan has been periodically speculated, including a military field hospital and a training team.
A US commander in Afghanistan told me recently that Indian soldiers in Afghanistan would be like a red rag to the Pakistani bull, which fears encirclement by India. He added: “After all, Pakistan did help us to defeat USSR”.
Any deployment of Indian troops will be on specific request either from Kabul or Washington, and probably both.
Relief for Afghanistan is only possible if Pakistan relents on its support to the Taliban or is coerced by the US to cooperate in the peace process. This seems unlikely unless the Trump administration is willing and able to change Pakistan’s behaviour. Also unlikely. India is in it for the long haul without boots on the ground for the time being.
https://www.thequint.com/world/2017/07/17/trump-afghanistan-policy-india-red-rag-to-pakistan
Security has nosedived for three reasons: The drawdown of US troops was too fast and down to too little, from 1,40,000 to 9800; uncertainty in US Afghanistan policy caused by the transition from Obama to Trump; egged by Pakistan, Taliban has altered the military balance in its favour.
The Trump policy on Afghanistan was expected in April but was put on hold as Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson wanted to re-hyphenate Afghanistan with Pakistan (Af-Pak). Gen John Nicholson, US Commander Resolute Force, is expecting the Af-Pak policy directive from Defence Secretary James Mattis latest by Tuesday 18 July. This will allow US commanders in Afghanistan to reassure Afghans that US has enduring interest in the country.
The NUG has evolved a four-year roadmap for 2017-20 for enhancing Afghanistan National Security Force (ANSF)’s fighting capabilities as agreed at this May’s Warsaw NATO summit. It will include the expected modest increase of 3,000 US and 10,000 NATO soldiers, with an elaborate US air support plan for ANSF, and special forces which will include F-16 aircraft, B52 bombers, Black Hawk helicopters and refuelling tankers. The US and the West will bear the cost of Afghanistan’s security and economy.
Pakistan as a Frenemy
The biggest impediment to the US-Afghanistan duo trying to take over Taliban and the peace process is frenemy Pakistan, whose behaviour hasn’t changed despite money, love and even punitive threats. Afghanistan’s National Security Advisor Hanif Atmar has warned of surgical strikes against Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan.
US Commanders are expecting the new Mattis policy will allow deeper coercive drone strikes on Taliban, Haqqani, ISIS and even ISI commanders but fear Pakistani reprisals including cutting off US ground lines of communication as they did after Osama bin Laden was taken out of Abbottabad.
Clearly, a change in Islamabad’s behaviour to bring the Taliban to the table as part of the peace process is key to peace and stability in Afghanistan, as a military solution is unfeasible.
For the US, the new spoilers are Russia and China, with both being on good terms with Pakistan. Russia wants to do to the US what the latter did to the USSR in the late 1980s; use Afghan Mujahideen to oust them from Afghanistan. China is generally playing a negative role, taking the cue from Pakistan.
Will Indian Troops be Deployed in Afghanistan?
New Delhi remains Kabul’s historic and steadfast ally. The Pentagon’s latest report on Afghanistan states that India is the most reliable friend of the Kabul regime. This has been confirmed by several media polls.
India’s impressive $3 billion development assistance and capacity building programmes include an elaborate military training and equipment component under the India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership 2011 – Kabul’s first with any country.
Like Indian troops were considered for service in Iraq at US’ request in 2003, their deployment in Afghanistan has been periodically speculated, including a military field hospital and a training team.
A US commander in Afghanistan told me recently that Indian soldiers in Afghanistan would be like a red rag to the Pakistani bull, which fears encirclement by India. He added: “After all, Pakistan did help us to defeat USSR”.
Any deployment of Indian troops will be on specific request either from Kabul or Washington, and probably both.
Relief for Afghanistan is only possible if Pakistan relents on its support to the Taliban or is coerced by the US to cooperate in the peace process. This seems unlikely unless the Trump administration is willing and able to change Pakistan’s behaviour. Also unlikely. India is in it for the long haul without boots on the ground for the time being.
https://www.thequint.com/world/2017/07/17/trump-afghanistan-policy-india-red-rag-to-pakistan
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