Trump meets Abe, but fails Japan

[TaiShang]

Trump meets Abe, but fails Japan
Source:Global Times Published: 2016/11/19 0:08:39


This time, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is No.1 in the world. He met with US President-elect Donald Trump in New York on Thursday for 90 minutes, and became the first foreign leader to meet with Trump after the US election.

Not much information was released following the meeting. Abe held a press conference and said he would establish a relationship of trust with Trump, while Trump acted more prudently and refused to comment on US-Japan relations before assuming office.

"Trust" is particularly important for Japan, as the US-Japan alliance is built on trust.

However, Abe's haste to meet Trump to confirm that trust highlights his lack of confidence in their relationship. Further, Trump winning the US presidency has added uncertainty. Trump's claims that he will discard the TPP and pressure Japan to pay for American military stationed in Japan have left Abe uneasy and have placed Japan's strategy of relying on the US to contain China at risk of bankruptcy. That is why Abe put his reserve aside to present himself before Trump.

Abe chose to seek US support to contain China and reform Japan's pacifist constitution out of its fear of a rising China, with an aim of making Japan a bigger political power in the world. However, this zero-sum mentality ensures that Japan will have to take on the role of the US' "little brother."

China is also watching how Trump will deal with the Asia-Pacific. The difference between China and Japan is that China is more capable of shaping Asia-Pacific geopolitics and more confident about the direction of China-US relations.

The post-World War II geopolitical structure in Asia has always been manipulated by outside powers, and neither China nor Japan were in a leading position. However, that situation is being challenged by the rising power of China.

It's still to be seen whether the US, with Trump in office, will join the China-started Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank or give a more positive response to the One Belt and One Road initiative. The US still needs Japan as a tool to counterbalance China, a strategy at the root of its global leadership pursuit.

After assuming power, Trump may adjust the US' relations with China and Japan, but a complete reverse is unlikely.

Abe went to New York to trumpet for the continuation of the US' "Pivot to Asia," however, he dared not leak a word about his meeting with Trump and showed no sign of them reaching any strategic agreement.

He failed to get the soothing pill he wanted from Trump or to make the US' other Asian allies believe Trump won't change the US' Asian policies.

 

[Nan Yang]

Abe should have rush to China instead and quickly join the AIIB.

 

[maximuswarrior]

LOL Trump isn't going to provide freebies anymore. The Obama era is over. The Obama legacy is going to be leveled to the ground. TPP and other China containment projects will become null and void. Expect Trump to soften his stance towards China.

 

[terranMarine]

The fact that Abe quickly rushed to US for a meeting with Trump before officially taking office reveals how Abe and his government are anxious. Abe and the majority of the Japanese were actually convinced Hillary would emerge as the victor. Things didn't turn out the way he had anticipated so it's not surprising he jumped on the plane on the double and crossed the ocean to reaffirm the US-JP alliance. Afterall Trump was criticizing Japan that it should be totally responsible for the financial bills for the troops stationing in Japan. He explicitly mentioned US provides security for South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Saudi Arabia etc.. but that these countries should be shouldering the financial burden and not US. What also got Abe worried is the fate of TPP, will Trump really kill it or revive it? Most MSM already pronounced it dead although some believe there's a slight chance of revival. Obviously Abe wants to keep playing the Asian Pivot game as he does not wish to see China as the rising dominant power in Asia. He has already gained some poker chips from Obama but still hungers for more. During the press conference Abe didn't speak much, neither did Trump regarding the meeting. You could tell from Abe's face he was disappointed.

I believe Trump will be a more pragmatic leader, he and his advisor already said it's a strategic mistake not to join AIIB. Who knows we could be witnessing the US joining the Chinese Bank in the Trump era. Didn't Canada jumped ship as well? Instead of containing China it would be wise to support the development of OBOR. We can work together or go our own separate ways but one thing will not change and that's the rise of the Dragon. This economic behemoth, industrious powerhouse, a rising military super power will continue its path for a peaceful development and helping others to lift poverty. The ball is in Japan and in US court, how they want to play the game depends on their mindsets. Xi has already told Trump we are open for more cooperation that will benefit both our countries, it's the only way.

As last point i would like to emphasize that Bill Clinton, Bush Jr and Obama were also criticizing China during their campaigns. But once in office their harsh tones died down. Bill Clinton encouraged China to join WTO, Bush Jr called China an important partner after 9/11, Obama said he would hammer China and calling her a currency manipulator but in the end he seemed to have forgotten what he had said. Trump also said China is a currency manipulator, stealing US jobs and all that garbage mumbo jumbo at the same time he did say he loves China, the biggest bank in the world (the US office) is in the Trump Tower , some members here think he's gonna play hard ball with China is a joke in my opinion.

 

[TaiShang]

it's like slavers rushing to meet their masters....

Abe now reminds me of US Cold War relics.

Abe is fast becoming a relic of the short lived Pivot.

Maybe it is time for him to head for the nearest museum.

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

PM Abe has liberalized the not just the Japanese military but it's industry more than any previous leader has.

The speech of President-Elect Trump has only shown how unconventional the future US President will be. And since each has sized up the other PM Abe will carry out the economics of a more forceful Japanese Military.

China will grow and Japan will stay.

 

[TaiShang]

This is not good because, as a historically-connected region, our fates are more or less tied to each other. Japan has one way road to economic development; and that goes through Beijing.

Washington cannot give Japan the medicine which it itself does not have.

***

Japan's exports fall for 13th straight month amid strong yen, slumping demand
Source: Xinhua 2016-11-21

TOKYO, Nov. 21 (Xinhua) -- Japan logged a goods trade surplus of 496.2 billion yen (4.46 billion U.S. dollars) in October, the Finance Ministry said in a preliminary report on Monday.

According to the ministry, exports declined 10.3 percent compared to the same time a year earlier in the reporting period, with median market expectations projecting an 8.5 percent fall, with the decline coming on the heels of a 6.9 percent drop in September and marking the 13th straight month of decline.

"Japan's weakening exports reflected sluggish growth in global trade. In addition, a firming yen negatively affected exports by reducing price competitiveness of Japanese products," Toru Suehiro, a senior market economist at Mizuho Securities Co., was quoted as saying.

Imports, meanwhile, retreated 16.5 percent on a customs-cleared basis, ahead of median analysts' expectations for a 16.6 percent retreat.

It is the second-successive month that Japan's balance sheet has posted a trade surplus, as the value of imports continue to decline at a quicker rate than those of exports, with shipments, notably, dropping in the recording period, having marked a retreat every month in the year past.

This, economists have said, is owing to a comparatively high yen and both slumping domestic demand and overall economic malaise weighing on the balance sheet and impeding Japan's progress, despite numerous measures by the central bank and government to stimulate expenditure and attempts to kickstart new socio-economic growth drivers.

A firm yen negatively impacts companies widely exposed to overseas markets and exporters generally rely on a weak yen to increase their overseas profit margins on favorable exchange rates and see the yields repatriated augment on favorable currency rates.

"Exports were down due to drops in autos, steel and communications equipment," Yuichiro Nagai and Kyohei Morita of Barclays Securities Japan were quoted as saying prior to the release of the latest data set.

While Tsutomu Saito, an economist at Daiwa Institute of Research, suggested that, "Considering seasonal factors, it's a pretty high trade surplus," adding, "Energy prices might pick up, but to compensate import volume is down, and export volume is increasing modestly."

The data showed that as the yen rose 14.7 percent in the reporting period compared to the same time a year earlier, to an average 102.40 yen per U.S. dollar, exports to China dropped 9.2 percent to 1.07 trillion yen (9.65 billion U.S. dollars), marking the eight straight month of decline, while imports tanked 17.9 percent to 1.42 trillion yen, down for the seventh straight month.

Shipments from here to the United States, meanwhile, declined 11.2 percent to 1.20 trillion yen, marking the eight straight month of decline, the ministry said, while imports dropped 9.9 percent to total 616.82 billion yen, down for the eighth straight month, the government data showed.

Exports to the European Union, meanwhile, fell 9.5 percent to 650.49 billion yen, while imports retreated 12.0 percent to 674.89 billion yen, marking the eight straight month of rise.

In general, market insiders believe that in the short-term the "Trump effect" as refers to the potential near-term upticks based on U.S. stimulus and growth potential when the new leadership in the U.S. takes over, may work favorably for Japan's balance sheet, although the consensus remains that the mid-to-long-term outlooks remain entirely hazy.

The latest trade data set underscores a fragile economic expansion in Japan in the third-quarter, as exports rallied and imports declined, which emphasizes the massive interdependence of the nation's movement of goods in and out of the country, particularly the former, against a backdrop of sluggish global and domestic demand and increase competition from other countries for electronic and auto products, previously the sole domain of Japan and its high-tech know-how.

"Slowing trade growth is a concern for the global economy, while rising protectionism increases such worries," as global economic growth remains weak amid low productivity and slow wage growth, Suehiro said.

One positive, however, the finance ministry said Monday, was the fact that net shipments, which subtracts imports from exports, added 0.5 percentage point to GDP growth in the last quarter.

 

[ahojunk]

It looks to me that Abenomics has run out of steam.

One of the main reasons he won the last election was his so-called Abenomics.

Lately, nobody talks about it anymore.

I wonder what else can Abe do.