TPP failure would cost the US trade dominance

[Carlosa]

Are you also for TTIP?

Certainly not !!!!

I'm very well aware of the American purposes for both TPP and TTIP, etc, but I also have to say that in the particular case of Vietnam and because of not just economic, but also geopolitical reasons, it is actually very beneficial for Vietnam. I did hear that the negative elements of TPP had been watered down at the insistence of the Japanese and Koreans, so that's a plus although I don't have the details.

TTIP is just an attempt to further USAs domination of Europe and to flood it with GMOs and many other things that we, Europeans, oppose for many good reasons. It is a matter of keeping our independence in the end (what little remains of it I should say).

 

[Lure]

Certainly not !!!!

I'm very well aware of the American purposes for both TPP and TTIP, etc, but I also have to say that in the particular case of Vietnam and because of not just economic, but also geopolitical reasons, it is actually very beneficial for Vietnam. I did hear that the negative elements of TPP had been watered down at the insistence of the Japanese and Koreans, so that's a plus although I don't have the details.

TTIP is just an attempt to further USAs domination of Europe and to flood it with GMOs and many other things that we, Europeans, oppose for many good reasons. It is a matter of keeping our independence in the end (what little remains of it I should say).

Do you think increasing automation, reshoring and rapidly inreasing labor costs in Vietnam would be able to compete in the lowest end of the value addition Chain?

 

[Carlosa]

Do you think increasing automation, reshoring and rapidly inreasing labor costs in Vietnam would be able to compete in the lowest end of the value addition Chain?

No need to be at the lowest end of the chain. The challenge is to get out of that spot as fast as possible.

 

[Lure]

No need to be at the lowest end of the chain. The challenge is to get out of that spot as fast as possible.

That's what I'm talking about. In order to climb up the value addition chain a country should move step by step. Quantum leap is unheard of in free markets. Even centrally planned socialist economies failed when they've tried such leaps. Take a look at Mao's disastrous Great Leap Forward.

So one can argue that for the upcoming two decades -at least- Vietnam will be in the lowest end of the value addition chain. This two decades will be investment driven and simply Vietnamese workforce will be exploited for the cheapest price possible, until there is some infrastructural maturity. After that you will be able to do what China is doing today : transforming your economy into a consumption driven, middle class and services oriented one by climbing the value addition chain. And as you can see from Chinese experience today this is much easier said than done.

However in it's experience China enjoyed certain advantages that we won't be able to talk about TPP experience of Vietnam.

1. Cold War was still going on when US money started to pour into Chinese economy. US knew Sino-Soviet split was an opportunity. That's why the investments had minimum political liabilities. This gave Chinese government the ability to somewhat "bend" the rules. By manipulating their currency and inhibiting worker rights they could pressurize the labour costs even lower so that they enjoyed lion's share on the FDI without much competition.

In Vietnam's case Washington is already dictating it's own terms. If Vietnam goes down that road, labour costs would increase rapidly without infrastructural maturity and capital accumulation. That would simply stagnate the economy and kill growth. Because Vietnam would need more investment to grow(not ready to climb up) but FDI won't be coming because labour costs.

Here's Washington's demands

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/01/tpp-mexico-labor-rights/426501/
http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...workers-in-vietnam-pursue-their-rrghts-118720

Here's from the TPP official US website

"TPP also establishes specific labor reforms that Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei must undertake to meet their TPP obligations. The United States will not bring TPP into force with these countries if the reforms are not made. And we will not hesitate to take action against any countries that fail to live up to their obligations in the labor chapter, including through trade sanctions."

https://ustr.gov/tpp/

While waiting for the FDI to come Vietnam could even face sanctions.

China never had such political obligations for taking FDI from US and becoming most trading nation.

2. I will cut it shortly. Robotics technology is currently developing fast and there is huge investments from every player in the market including China despite it's vast human source. Most of the low value added manufacturing jobs are being automated even as we speak. Hence the opportunity window for this path of development might not be long enough for Vietnam.

3. If US can help a country to develop economically by providing a magic solution, it would've been Mexico first. This nation is a superpower since 1945, the biggest economy of the World since 1900. They have been a developed country since they were literally formed. Because they came from Europe and had all the know how. Thus asking for US policy makers help for a developing nation like Vietnam would be like a worker asking help of Donald Trump to make ends meet. It just won't work because they don't even know about what you're dealing with. They can't even imagine. But in order to ease their conscious they will cough *** mandate *** cough reforms which will probably make more harm then good.

 

[BoQ77]

who given the 10 cents of saving is far from reality.
Garments are always charged much due to tariff, ie. 15-20%. / 5% was considered as big
Let imagine
A T-shirt cost 3$
Before: 20%, tax 60 cents
After: 0%, tax zero
How about a 20$ clothes ?
50$ pair of shoes ? tax cost 10$ / pair , now exempted
Look at the different 15-20% not the 2 or 10 cents.

They talked about there're many manufacturers fight for a global brand ?
Why they don't talk about there're many global brands fight for limited manufacturers ?

By the way, more jobs created, it's the most interesting thing.

 

[Carlosa]

That's what I'm talking about. In order to climb up the value addition chain a country should move step by step. Quantum leap is unheard of in free markets. Even centrally planned socialist economies failed when they've tried such leaps. Take a look at Mao's disastrous Great Leap Forward.

So one can argue that for the upcoming two decades -at least- Vietnam will be in the lowest end of the value addition chain. This two decades will be investment driven and simply Vietnamese workforce will be exploited for the cheapest price possible, until there is some infrastructural maturity. After that you will be able to do what China is doing today : transforming your economy into a consumption driven, middle class and services oriented one by climbing the value addition chain. And as you can see from Chinese experience today this is much easier said than done.

However in it's experience China enjoyed certain advantages that we won't be able to talk about TPP experience of Vietnam.

1. Cold War was still going on when US money started to pour into Chinese economy. US knew Sino-Soviet split was an opportunity. That's why the investments had minimum political liabilities. This gave Chinese government the ability to somewhat "bend" the rules. By manipulating their currency and inhibiting worker rights they could pressurize the labour costs even lower so that they enjoyed lion's share on the FDI without much competition.

In Vietnam's case Washington is already dictating it's own terms. If Vietnam goes down that road, labour costs would increase rapidly without infrastructural maturity and capital accumulation. That would simply stagnate the economy and kill growth. Because Vietnam would need more investment to grow(not ready to climb up) but FDI won't be coming because labour costs.

Here's Washington's demands

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/01/tpp-mexico-labor-rights/426501/
http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...workers-in-vietnam-pursue-their-rrghts-118720

Here's from the TPP official US website

"TPP also establishes specific labor reforms that Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei must undertake to meet their TPP obligations. The United States will not bring TPP into force with these countries if the reforms are not made. And we will not hesitate to take action against any countries that fail to live up to their obligations in the labor chapter, including through trade sanctions."

https://ustr.gov/tpp/

While waiting for the FDI to come Vietnam could even face sanctions.

China never had such political obligations for taking FDI from US and becoming most trading nation.

2. I will cut it shortly. Robotics technology is currently developing fast and there is huge investments from every player in the market including China despite it's vast human source. Most of the low value added manufacturing jobs are being automated even as we speak. Hence the opportunity window for this path of development might not be long enough for Vietnam.

3. If US can help a country to develop economically by providing a magic solution, it would've been Mexico first. This nation is a superpower since 1945, the biggest economy of the World since 1900. They have been a developed country since they were literally formed. Because they came from Europe and had all the know how. Thus asking for US policy makers help for a developing nation like Vietnam would be like a worker asking help of Donald Trump to make ends meet. It just won't work because they don't even know about what you're dealing with. They can't even imagine. But in order to ease their conscious they will cough *** mandate *** cough reforms which will probably make more harm then good.

Well said in general, but the Vietnamese experience is also quite different than the Chinese one in many ways. China created massive development based on cheap credit and now the chickens are coming home to roost, that's the main reason for their problems now, its not just about moving the economy towards consumption. They created too many massive bubbles. Vietnam's growth is actually based on quite sound fundamentals and even that they have plenty of home work to do when it comes to SOEs, regulations and reforms, etc, is all very doable, but it depends on the ossified leadership reforming itself. The new prime minister seems to actually be quite good and be probably the right one to do many reforms, but have to see more.

Vietnam does not have to wait for FDI to come, its coming at quite massive levels already; if anything, they need to be more choosy as to what they approve.

The infrastructure is actually moving quite fast now, the picture is changing fast.

The transformation into a consumption economy is actually happening right now. The middle class is expected to double in the next 2-3 years. That's why foreign retailers are rushing to Vietnam right now and there is intense competition for a better share of the retail market.

Its no problem at all if USA dictate terms to Vietnam on environmental and labor reforms, that's exactly what is need it to move things forward on those areas.

Robotics technology and automation in Vietnam would have to depend on the foreign investors needs to apply it in their vietnamese operations. That picture is not clear at this point.

So as you can see, the Vietnamese picture is quite unique to Vietnam, comparisons to China or others are really very partial. In the end, the degree of success depends on the level of reform by the leadership.

 

[BoQ77]

Well said in general, but the Vietnamese experience is also quite different than the Chinese one in many ways. China created massive development based on cheap credit and now the chickens are coming home to roost, that's the main reason for their problems now, its not just about moving the economy towards consumption. They created too many massive bubbles. Vietnam's growth is actually based on quite sound fundamentals and even that they have plenty of home work to do when it comes to SOEs, regulations and reforms, is all very doable, but it depends on the ossified leadership reforming itself. The new prime minister seems to actually be quite good and be probably the right one to do many reforms, but have to see more.

Vietnam does not have to wait for FDI to come, its coming at quite massive levels already; if anything, they need to be more choosy as to what they approve.

The infrastructure is actually moving quite fast now, the picture is changing fast.

The transformation into a consumption economy is actually happening right now. The middle class is expected to double in the next 2-3 years. That's why foreign retailers are rushing to Vietnam right now and there is intense competition for a better share of the retail market.

Its no problem at all if USA dictate terms to Vietnam on environmental and labor reforms, that's exactly what is need it to move things forward on those areas.

Robotics technology and automation in Vietnam would have to depend on the foreign investors needs to apply it in their vietnamese operations. That picture is not clear at this point.

So as you can see, the Vietnamese picture is quite unique to Vietnam, comparisons to China or others are really very partial. In the end, the degree of success depends on the level of reform by the leadership.

This morning, I just contacted again with a Vietnamese partner, who has been working for Japan invested supply chain in motobiker production for at least 15 years. Based on his well knowledge on automation like robots and CNC, now he quit and solely create his company which provide automation machines to Vietnamese investment factories, Japan investment, to India, and even back to Japan. I coupled with him for sometimes and can watch his production line in his workshop running test for the third factory of Honda Vietnam.

Cheap labors are unable to compete the automation production. We need the massive orders to boost that.

@Carlosa: I am in search for a new business segment, could you give me an advice ?

 

[AndrewJin]

Are you also for TTIP?

What is the reaction of mainstream media like Spiegel towards TTIP after the leakage of some provisions?

 

[Carlosa]

This morning, I just contacted again with a Vietnamese partner, who has been working for Japan invested supply chain in motobiker production for at least 15 years. Based on his well knowledge on automation like robots and CNC, now he quit and solely create his company which provide automation machines to Vietnamese investment factories, Japan investment, to India, and even back to Japan. I coupled with him for sometimes and can watch his production line in his workshop running test for the third factory of Honda Vietnam.

Cheap labors are unable to compete the automation production. We need the massive orders to boost that.

@Carlosa: I am in search for a new business segment, could you give me an advice ?

Let me think about that, I'm also looking for that. Maybe we can cooperate on some ventures.

Good to hear about automation and robots already coming to Vietnam.

This morning, I just contacted again with a Vietnamese partner, who has been working for Japan invested supply chain in motobiker production for at least 15 years. Based on his well knowledge on automation like robots and CNC, now he quit and solely create his company which provide automation machines to Vietnamese investment factories, Japan investment, to India, and even back to Japan. I coupled with him for sometimes and can watch his production line in his workshop running test for the third factory of Honda Vietnam.

Cheap labors are unable to compete the automation production. We need the massive orders to boost that.

@Carlosa: I am in search for a new business segment, could you give me an advice ?

What's your opinion about the new prime minister?

 

[BoQ77]

Let me think about that, I'm also looking for that. Maybe we can cooperate on some ventures.

Good to hear about automation and robots already coming to Vietnam.

What's your opinion about the new prime minister?

We can't talk anything about him before this July 2016, he may not the PM after that. LOL

 

[Carlosa]

We can't talk anything about him before this July 2016, he may not the PM after that. LOL

What happens on July 2016?

 

[BoQ77]

What happens on July 2016?

New elected members of National Assembly come into power.
They would vote for new President, the new President would recommend the candidate for new PM and they would vote again for accepting that guy as new PM or not.

 

[vtnsx]

New elected members of National Assembly come into power.
They would vote for new President, the new President would recommend the candidate for new PM and they would vote again for accepting that guy as new PM or not.

that is messed up bro

The challenges in animal husbandry and cattle growing are certainly true and as Jaiming said, it will push local growers to raise their efficiencies and standards which is a good thing in the end, but there is another element in the picture that is very important, actually much more important and is not being talked about and that is the SAFETY ISSUE.

Anybody that lives in Vietnam is familiar with the issue of illegal chemicals being used for all sort of things in a blatant way and with total disregard to health.

From chemicals used to improve the yellow color in chickens to make them more sellable to chemicals to disguised the appearance and smell of meat that is starting to rot, pork with chemicals and colorants to make it look like beef, chemicals to make pigs grow faster and fatter, etc, etc. This is a TIME BOMB and a major health issue. People are dying of cancer like flies. There are a lot of tricky people involved in the growing of food that only care about profits and disregard the health of people; in fact, they are slowly killing their customers, so, am I going to feel sorry for them? Certainly not.

Vietnamese people are crying for a safe food alternative.

Let the meat imports roll in, the cancer rates will go down.

@BoQ77 @Viet

Vietnam needs to liberate. I mean a revolution. A Civil War.

This morning, I just contacted again with a Vietnamese partner, who has been working for Japan invested supply chain in motobiker production for at least 15 years. Based on his well knowledge on automation like robots and CNC, now he quit and solely create his company which provide automation machines to Vietnamese investment factories, Japan investment, to India, and even back to Japan. I coupled with him for sometimes and can watch his production line in his workshop running test for the third factory of Honda Vietnam.

Cheap labors are unable to compete the automation production. We need the massive orders to boost that.

@Carlosa: I am in search for a new business segment, could you give me an advice ?

I'm building my own CNC machine. Anyway you can hook me up with business opp?

 

[BoQ77]

I'm building my own CNC machine. Anyway you can hook me up with business opp?

Where do you live ?

 

[Götterdämmerung]

Certainly not !!!!

I'm very well aware of the American purposes for both TPP and TTIP, etc, but I also have to say that in the particular case of Vietnam and because of not just economic, but also geopolitical reasons, it is actually very beneficial for Vietnam. I did hear that the negative elements of TPP had been watered down at the insistence of the Japanese and Koreans, so that's a plus although I don't have the details.

TTIP is just an attempt to further USAs domination of Europe and to flood it with GMOs and many other things that we, Europeans, oppose for many good reasons. It is a matter of keeping our independence in the end (what little remains of it I should say).

TTP and TTIP is the same coin with two faces. What should happen in the EU cannot be any better for the Pacific region, certainly for a underdeveloped country such as Vietnam. Otherwise I have a nice bridge in Hamburg for sale.