FOOLS_NIGHTMARE
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Sep 26, 2018
- Messages
- 18,063
- Reaction score
- 12
- Country
- Location
Three days after President Joe Biden took office, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force sortied a powerful formation of new H-6K bombers toward Taiwan.
The same day, the U.S. Navy sailed the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and her escorts into the South China Sea.
The timing wasn’t a coincidence. The bombers—which are compatible with YJ-12 anti-ship missiles—were training for strikes on carriers such as Roosevelt, Chinese state media explained.
But in probing Taiwan’s air-defense identification zone, the twin-engine bombers also were preparing for an equally important role—lobbing missiles at Taiwanese forces in preparation for an amphibious assault on the island.
“Reunifiying” Taiwan with the Chinese mainland is the central goal of China’s foreign policy. As Taiwan is a fully independent democracy, there’s no realistic prospect of the two countries peacefully merging. When officials in Beijing use the term “reunification,” they’re really talking about war.
And that war, if and when it comes, could begin with Chinese bombers barreling toward Taiwan like they did Saturday.
In that sense, the weekend’s sortie was a dress rehearsal. “It does demonstrate the PLAAF’s ability to put together a multi-plane strike, which we would likely see in the event of a hot war against Taiwan,” said Bernard Cole, a professor at the National War College in Washington, D.C.
A Chinese air force H-6 flying near Taiwan.
REPUBLIC OF CHINA MINISTRY OF DEFENSE
The scale of Saturday’s bomber sortie is noteworthy. Eight of the 108-foot-wingspan bombers flew toward Taiwan’s southwest air-defense zone. Four J-16 fighters protected the bombers. A Y-8 patrol plane was nearby, perhaps acting as an airborne command post, Cole theorized.
It’s not unprecedented for the Chinese air force to sortie eight bombers at once, but it is unusual. That’s a lot of hardware requiring extensive planning and maximum effort from aircrew and ground staff. The U.S. Air Force’s own sorties—such as those high-profile B-52 missions near Russia last year—rarely involve more than four bombers plus support planes.
But if Chinese president Xi Jinping pulled the trigger and ordered the PLA to attack Taiwan, the air force certainly would launch more than eight bombers. There are more than 200 H-6s in PLAAF and People’s Liberation Army Navy Air Force service. It’s safe to assume many of them would take part in any air war over Taiwan, which probably also would involve strikes on U.S. bases in the region.
“PLA war-planners seem to view their bomber fleets as primarily useful for attacks on Taiwan, Okinawa and Guam,” said Ian Easton, a military expert with the Project 2049 Institute in Virginia. “That's what they are preparing for.”
“Unlike other types of military aircraft, bombers are fundamentally geared toward offensive operations,” Easton said. “That's all they do. And because China's H-6 bombers lack stealth and speed, they can only be used effectively in a first-strike capacity to catch targets by surprise.”
The bombers probably wouldn’t go it alone. “Any manned aircraft strike against the island would be preceded by an extensive SEAD campaign by missiles and SOF,” Cole said.
REPUBLIC OF CHINA MINISTRY OF DEFENSE
SEAD stands for “suppression of enemy air-defenses.” It’s the practice of jamming or destroying an opponent’s radars and surface-to-air missiles. SOF are Special Operations Forces—commandos.
After the dust settled from the initial barrage of Chinese rockets—and after Beijing’s commandos completed their raids or died trying—the bombers would fly through the resulting gaps in Taiwan’s defenses and fire their own CJ-10 cruise missiles at Taiwanese bases and troop formations.
The Chinese crews might only get one chance. “H-6 bombers are big, slow targets,” Easton said. “Taiwan has a range of air-defense systems for defending against them, to include land-attack cruise missiles that could crater PLAAF and PLANAF runways and devastated parked aircraft on their parking ramps.”
“The problem is that Taiwan will be on the receiving end of China's surprise attacks,” Easton added. “No one can say with any certainty how things will look for Taiwan's defense after that first wave of steel comes screaming down. But if sufficient defensive preparations are made, as they likely are, then Taiwan should be able to recover and knock a considerable portion of China's air force out of the sky.”
“That would pave the way for the U.S. and its allies like Japan and Australia to come into the fight,” Easton said. “In any event, any Chinese invasion of Taiwan would almost certainly involve a long and extremely bloody air war.”
The stakes couldn’t be higher. If China attacks Taiwan and fails to conquer the island—fast—the resulting counterattack and global political backlash surely would be catastrophic for Beijing.
Hence the practice runs such as Saturday’s. “Bombers are an important part of that broader effort by Beijing to improve war-readiness,” Easton said. “We should expect to see even larger demonstrations like this in the future.”
www.forbes.com
The same day, the U.S. Navy sailed the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and her escorts into the South China Sea.
The timing wasn’t a coincidence. The bombers—which are compatible with YJ-12 anti-ship missiles—were training for strikes on carriers such as Roosevelt, Chinese state media explained.
But in probing Taiwan’s air-defense identification zone, the twin-engine bombers also were preparing for an equally important role—lobbing missiles at Taiwanese forces in preparation for an amphibious assault on the island.
“Reunifiying” Taiwan with the Chinese mainland is the central goal of China’s foreign policy. As Taiwan is a fully independent democracy, there’s no realistic prospect of the two countries peacefully merging. When officials in Beijing use the term “reunification,” they’re really talking about war.
And that war, if and when it comes, could begin with Chinese bombers barreling toward Taiwan like they did Saturday.
In that sense, the weekend’s sortie was a dress rehearsal. “It does demonstrate the PLAAF’s ability to put together a multi-plane strike, which we would likely see in the event of a hot war against Taiwan,” said Bernard Cole, a professor at the National War College in Washington, D.C.
A Chinese air force H-6 flying near Taiwan.
REPUBLIC OF CHINA MINISTRY OF DEFENSE
The scale of Saturday’s bomber sortie is noteworthy. Eight of the 108-foot-wingspan bombers flew toward Taiwan’s southwest air-defense zone. Four J-16 fighters protected the bombers. A Y-8 patrol plane was nearby, perhaps acting as an airborne command post, Cole theorized.
It’s not unprecedented for the Chinese air force to sortie eight bombers at once, but it is unusual. That’s a lot of hardware requiring extensive planning and maximum effort from aircrew and ground staff. The U.S. Air Force’s own sorties—such as those high-profile B-52 missions near Russia last year—rarely involve more than four bombers plus support planes.
But if Chinese president Xi Jinping pulled the trigger and ordered the PLA to attack Taiwan, the air force certainly would launch more than eight bombers. There are more than 200 H-6s in PLAAF and People’s Liberation Army Navy Air Force service. It’s safe to assume many of them would take part in any air war over Taiwan, which probably also would involve strikes on U.S. bases in the region.
“PLA war-planners seem to view their bomber fleets as primarily useful for attacks on Taiwan, Okinawa and Guam,” said Ian Easton, a military expert with the Project 2049 Institute in Virginia. “That's what they are preparing for.”
“Unlike other types of military aircraft, bombers are fundamentally geared toward offensive operations,” Easton said. “That's all they do. And because China's H-6 bombers lack stealth and speed, they can only be used effectively in a first-strike capacity to catch targets by surprise.”
The bombers probably wouldn’t go it alone. “Any manned aircraft strike against the island would be preceded by an extensive SEAD campaign by missiles and SOF,” Cole said.
REPUBLIC OF CHINA MINISTRY OF DEFENSE
SEAD stands for “suppression of enemy air-defenses.” It’s the practice of jamming or destroying an opponent’s radars and surface-to-air missiles. SOF are Special Operations Forces—commandos.
After the dust settled from the initial barrage of Chinese rockets—and after Beijing’s commandos completed their raids or died trying—the bombers would fly through the resulting gaps in Taiwan’s defenses and fire their own CJ-10 cruise missiles at Taiwanese bases and troop formations.
The Chinese crews might only get one chance. “H-6 bombers are big, slow targets,” Easton said. “Taiwan has a range of air-defense systems for defending against them, to include land-attack cruise missiles that could crater PLAAF and PLANAF runways and devastated parked aircraft on their parking ramps.”
“The problem is that Taiwan will be on the receiving end of China's surprise attacks,” Easton added. “No one can say with any certainty how things will look for Taiwan's defense after that first wave of steel comes screaming down. But if sufficient defensive preparations are made, as they likely are, then Taiwan should be able to recover and knock a considerable portion of China's air force out of the sky.”
“That would pave the way for the U.S. and its allies like Japan and Australia to come into the fight,” Easton said. “In any event, any Chinese invasion of Taiwan would almost certainly involve a long and extremely bloody air war.”
The stakes couldn’t be higher. If China attacks Taiwan and fails to conquer the island—fast—the resulting counterattack and global political backlash surely would be catastrophic for Beijing.
Hence the practice runs such as Saturday’s. “Bombers are an important part of that broader effort by Beijing to improve war-readiness,” Easton said. “We should expect to see even larger demonstrations like this in the future.”
Those Bombers China Sent Toward Taiwan? They Were A Dress Rehearsal For War
War, if and when it comes, could begin with Chinese bombers barreling toward Taiwan like they did on Saturday. Here's how it could play out.
www.forbes.com
