Think Tank: China Beats U.S. in Simulated Taiwan Air War

[Screaming Skull]

Think Tank: China Beats U.S. in Simulated Taiwan Air War​

August 5, 2009

In 2000, the influential think thank RAND Corporation crunched some numbers regarding a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and concluded that “any near-term Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan would likely be a very bloody affair with a significant probability of failure” — especially if the U.S. raced to the island nation’s defense. But nine years later, a new, much-updated edition of the RAND study found that China’s improved air and missile forces “represent clear and impending dangers to the defense of Taiwan,” whether or not the U.S. is involved.

“A credible case can be made that the air war for Taiwan could essentially be over before much of the Blue [American and allied] air force has even fired a shot,” the monograph notes.

It’s a potentially controversial assertion — and one that might have fueled the (now-resolved) debate over whether the U.S. Air Force should buy more F-22s. RAND found that F-22s flying from the relative safety of Guam could be surprisingly effective in blunting a Chinese air assault.

Still, with or without F-22s, the Chinese air and missile force “dramatically outnumbers [U.S. and Taiwanese] forces and wins the war of attrition,” according to Steve Trimble’s summary of the RAND study. The Chinese lose 241 jets on the first day of fighting, while the U.S. and Taiwan together lose 147, but this lopsided kill ratio doesn’t matter, when China has hundreds more planes to put into the air. Moreover, most of the U.S. and Taiwanese planes lost, are destroyed on the ground by barrages of Chinese ballistic missiles. (It’s not for no reason that the U.S. Air Force is working hard to win new friends, each with juicy new bases, all over the Pacific.)

Before you panic, though, consider the many caveats RAND sneaks into the study — especially in the footnotes.

In light of how close the Chinese and Taiwanese economies have grown in the last decade, a Chinese invasion would amount to Beijing “shooting itself in the foot.” “China’s IT sector, in particular, could be devastated.” Never mind that the U.S. and Chinese economies are also irrevocably interdependent.

What’s more, despite focusing on the air battle for most of the report’s 185 pages, RAND admits that dogfighting can’t conquer an island. “Ultimately, there is only one military course of action that guarantees China control of Taiwan: a successful invasion and occupation.” An amphibious assault across the 200-mile-wide Taiwan Strait would represent “by far the most challenging military operation ever undertaken” by the Chinese. The entire Chinese navy could only carry 31,000 troops in the first wave — a number RAND admits would “almost certainly not” suffice, “assuming that Taiwan’s government, military, and populace chose to put up a fight.” It would take just one successful attack by Taiwan’s missile boats, or one day’s sorties by the island’s attack choppers, to incapacitate the whole Chinese assault fleet.

For that matter, RAND admits that successful attacks by just four U.S. B-1B bombers could also disable the invasion fleet. But let’s assume China does sweep the sky of U.S. and Taiwanese planes, bombers included — and even manages to take out Taiwan’s missile boats and choppers. The RAND study glosses over, in a single footnote, the force that would really play the biggest role in halting a Chinese invasion: the U.S. Navy’s huge, lethal fleet of nuclear submarines.

Think Tank: China Beats U.S. in Simulated Taiwan Air War | Danger Room | Wired.com

 

[applesauce]

wonder what the us wants to buy now using this report to congress

 

[Fennecus]

It was just a matter of time.

Expect to see continued double digit defense growth in each coming year.

 

[TruthSeeker]

The PRC could stop all of this game playing by negotiating a friendship treaty with the Taiwanese people. Obviously the PRC could wipe out Taiwan in a few seconds if it wanted to. But, presumably there is enough moral restraint on the part of PRC leaders to not do that. Why not take it a step further and make peace with Taiwan? Why not accept Taiwanese autonomy in some form of federation with the PRC and remove any grounds for the US to feel it must "protect" Taiwan?

 

[jeypore]

In light of how close the Chinese and Taiwanese economies have grown in the last decade, a Chinese invasion would amount to Beijing “shooting itself in the foot.” “China’s IT sector, in particular, could be devastated.” Never mind that the U.S. and Chinese economies are also irrevocably interdependent.

This is probably the most paradoxial statement, Chinese, taiwanese and US economies are becoming interlink, yet China spent majority of it's defense spending on possible invasions of Taiwane. What is paradoxial is if China is going to spent more becuase it is not fully capable of capturing Taiwane, yet, they would loose because there economy would be crushed. That is really funny. Owe what web we weave, in peaceful rise of China.

 

[Righteous_Fire]

The PRC could stop all of this game playing by negotiating a friendship treaty with the Taiwanese people. Obviously the PRC could wipe out Taiwan in a few seconds if it wanted to. But, presumably there is enough moral restraint on the part of PRC leaders to not do that. Why not take it a step further and make peace with Taiwan? Why not accept Taiwanese autonomy in some form of federation with the PRC and remove any grounds for the US to feel it must "protect" Taiwan?

I think you've got a valid point, though it wont be truthful either to say that PRC hasnt extended a hand of piece, like some of these articles

Taiwan rejects China's call for formal peace talks - Feature : Asia World

this is another similar article as the one above:

GMANews.TV - Taiwan rejects Chinese call for peace accord - World - Official Website of GMA News and Public Affairs - Latest Philippine News

Article: Taiwan rejects China's offer of panda pair. | AccessMyLibrary - Promoting library advocacy

Taiwan Rejects China's Help in SARS Fight - Science News - redOrbit

Taiwan rejects China's call to open restricted air space

 

[Fennecus]

The PRC could stop all of this game playing by negotiating a friendship treaty with the Taiwanese people. Obviously the PRC could wipe out Taiwan in a few seconds if it wanted to. But, presumably there is enough moral restraint on the part of PRC leaders to not do that. Why not take it a step further and make peace with Taiwan? Why not accept Taiwanese autonomy in some form of federation with the PRC and remove any grounds for the US to feel it must "protect" Taiwan?

China would love to form some form of a federation with Taiwan, and even offered the KMT a spot as China's second largest political party and shared power. The Taiwanese side rejected this in the 90s, but we shall see how this turns out as China continues to rise.

 

[A1Kaid]

The United States has no business in Taiwan.


What is Al Qaeda there too? The US is an irritant when it comes to Taiwan, they demand that China allow Democracy in Taiwan, and China has, what else does this irritant want?


Nobody gives a damn about the US's lectures on Democracy anymore, it has no credibility. It has no just purpose, no valid reason, no legitimacy to get itself involved in Taiwan, neither do many Taiwanese care about the US, current polls in Taiwan prove this.

I urge China to send a strong message to the US that this Geo-Political game US is playing in regards to Taiwan against China is not acceptable and if these calls for more US influence in Taiwan continue, China should close the US embassy in Taiwan and other punitive actions.

 

[Righteous_Fire]

The United States has no business in Taiwan.

Yeah I guess there are many more examples as well

Nobody gives a damn about the US's lectures on Democracy anymore, it has no credibility. It has no just purpose, no valid reason, no legitimacy to get itself involved in Taiwan, neither do many Taiwanese care about the US, current polls in Taiwan prove this.

It really hurts when people say that but its true, isnt it? and when you read the constitution and all it has to say about freedom, democracy and liberty, the pain magnifies

 

[TruthSeeker]

The United States has no business in Taiwan. It has no just purpose, no valid reason, no legitimacy to get itself involved in Taiwan, neither do many Taiwanese care about the US, current polls in Taiwan prove this.

Please provide a link that backs up this assertion about Taiwanese public opinion. I am confident that if the Taiwanese government ever asked the USA to butt out, we would. The USA would gladly say good-bye to its defense obligations to Taiwan. All China has to do is convince the Taiwanese that they have nothing to fear and the US will save $billions which it could then use to enhance its War on al Qaeda (The Obama Administrations new name for the WoT).

 

[TruthSeeker]

It really hurts when people say that but its true, isnt it?

It isn't true. A1Kaid is just anti-American to his core. Don't let him bother you. He obviously doesn't understand the responsibilities that the USA shoulders. The American people would like nothing better than to be left alone, but the WORLD wants us to solve every problem and we feel guilty if we say no. If the USA withdrew into isolationism, HE would be the first to complain that we "white people" don't CARE about the sufferings of all the brown people of the world.

 

[Patriot]

China will never invade Taiwan..in next 30-40 years.Chinese economy is booming.They have bigger goals that is become economic power.Of course you have to spend money on Defence.You have to back your economical interests with strong defence..US spends well over 500 billion a year.Chinese D Budget is a joke compared to US Budget.China is quickly becoming global power so of course it has to spend money on defence.

 

[A1Kaid]

Please provide a link that backs up this assertion about Taiwanese public opinion. I am confident that if the Taiwanese government ever asked the USA to butt out, we would. The USA would gladly say good-bye to its defense obligations to Taiwan. All China has to do is convince the Taiwanese that they have nothing to fear and the US will save $billions which it could then use to enhance its War on al Qaeda (The Obama Administrations new name for the WoT).

Please provide a link that backs up this assertion about Taiwanese public opinion.-TruthSeeker

Here's an article that substantiates my previous claim.





Scholars concerned about possible anti-U.S. sentiment
Categories：Politics


Taipei, Sept. 1 (CNA) A series of harsh criticism and strong opposition toward Taiwan's planned U.N. referendum from high-ranking U.S. officials recently could stir up even more anti-U.S. sentiment in Taiwan, academics said in a seminar Saturday.

"Recent public opinion polls show that U.S. popularity in Taiwan has been decreasing as it has been leaning toward China in handling the Taiwan Strait issue, " said Lo Chih-cheng, a political professor at Soochow University, in a seminar organized by the pro-independence Taiwan Thinktank.

"The Americans should pay close attention to this," [including you TruthSeeker ] Lo said, because anti-U.S. sentiment has been almost non-existent during the past decades in Taiwan. If the sentiment develops into anti-Americanism, we will probably see a fundamental and structural change in Taiwan-U.S. relations in the future, he predicted.

East Asian Affairs Senior Director at the U. S. National Security Council Dennis Wilder pointed out Friday that Taiwan's statehood is considered by the U.S. to be an undecided issue. The comment came after U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte told a Chinese TV station in an Aug. 29 interview that the U.S. opposes a Taiwan referendum on U.N. membership.

Tung Li-wen, deputy executive of the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy, agreed that the current intensity of anti-U.S.

Sentiment is unprecedented, saying that it is because the U.S. is "actually helping China change the status quo and pressuring Taiwan to kowtow to China." "The worst case scenario would be that Taiwan becomes not only an anti-communist country but also anti-U.S. at the same time, " Tung warned.

Most Taiwanese have the impression that the U.S. has been putting much more pressure on Taiwan rather than asking China to remove its missiles, improve it human rights situation and stop squeezing Taiwan's international space, Lo said.

People have the impression that Taiwan's vibrant and developing democracy, which the U.S. has called for since the end of World War II, has not been helpful in upgrading Taiwan's status in the international community, according to Chen Wen-hsien, a professor at National Chengchi University.

(By Chris Wang) ENDITEM/J

Source: Scholars concerned about possible anti-U.S. sentiment - CNA ENGLISH NEWS

 

[A1Kaid]

It isn't true. A1Kaid is just anti-American to his core. Don't let him bother you. He obviously doesn't understand the responsibilities that the USA shoulders. The American people would like nothing better than to be left alone, but the WORLD wants us to solve every problem and we feel guilty if we say no. If the USA withdrew into isolationism, HE would be the first to complain that we "white people" don't CARE about the sufferings of all the brown people of the world.

"It isn't true. A1Kaid is just anti-American to his core."-TruthSeeker

Yes it is true that the World is increasingly Anti-American and now has a greater disregard for America's lectures and manifestos in support of "Democracy" and your foreign policy...

"The American people would like nothing better than to be left alone, but the WORLD wants us to solve every problem and we feel guilty if we say no."-TruthSeeker

Well you have lobbyist, wealthy private groups, PAC's, and Zionist elites that are heavily influencing your Government today. They are encouraging you to get involved in foreign affairs, there are also other elements involved...

Also please wise up, the World does not want you to solve every problem, how about actually listening to what the World is saying, it is the Military industrial complex, elites, and other powers in your nation that are pursuing their global ambitions not necessarily to help and truly fix world problems...

"If the USA withdrew into isolationism, HE would be the first to complain that we "white people" don't CARE about the sufferings of all the brown people of the world.

Wow, your mentality and judgment is far off. I don't care if "white people" do or don't care about "brown people". Truth is whether America is isolationist or not it is damaging parts of the World with it's actions, resolutions, policies, decisions, military bases, support dictators, and so on...

Anyways let's get back on topic.

 

[dbc]

China will never invade Taiwan..

China can annihilate Taiwan if she chooses to do so– but she cannot occupy Taiwan, 200 miles of ocean will make it a treacherous task. The first and subsequent waves of a mere 31,000 troops will be sitting ducks for entrenched forces defending the island.
I doubt the US will intervene, since we do not have the stomach for another war and that too with China (our chief creditor ) in their very own backyard.