The War that Never Was? [January 18, 2021 PLA invasion of Taiwan]

[Feng Leng]

By Admiral James A. Winnefeld, U.S. Navy (Retired), and Michael J. Morell

https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/august/war-never-was

The beginning of major state-on-state conflict is almost always a surprise . . . at least to one of the two sides. The China–Taiwan conflict of early 2021 was no exception. The overlapping factors that brought it about now seem so obvious in retrospect. First, the convergence of Thucydides’ three sources of conflict—fear, honor, and interest—was unprecedented at the time.

Perhaps most startling for Beijing was the visit of the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to Taipei—the most senior U.S. official to visit the island in decades—followed by a brief training detachment of U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors to the island.

The PRC deliberately ratcheted up tensions with the island in December 2020 and commenced a major military exercise along its east coast in early January that was ostensibly designed to be a signal to Taiwan. The West, distracted by the U.S. election drama and the ongoing pandemic, viewed this as mere saber-rattling.

Chinese forces previously engaged in the exercise swiftly turned their attention across the Strait, and, after tough resistance on the ground, seized several islands claimed by Taiwan, including Quemoy, Matsu, and the Penghus. Peoples Liberation Army Navy submarines deployed to close the northern and southern entrances to the Taiwan Strait, and also deployed east of Taiwan to prepare for potential action against U.S. Navy ships. Any Taiwan Navy surface ships underway were engaged quickly and sunk. Chinese media highlighted the presence of thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles in launching positions capable of targeting key facilities on Taiwan. An immediate sea and air blockade of the island was announced, pending Taipei’s decision on Beijing’s ultimatum.

At the same time, the PLAN’s amphibious forces—including an enormous number of fishing vessels quickly pressed into service—got underway in preparation for landing Chinese ground forces on the island’s west coast, and air defense ships extended their umbrella over the island’s airspace. Again, both were highlighted to the leaders in Taiwan.

Called upon to provide military options for the President’s consideration, the Secretary of Defense and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs stated that the U.S. Seventh Fleet was recalling its personnel, getting ships underway as soon as possible, and awaiting further instructions. U.S. Pacific Air Force assets in the region would begin moving to dispersal fields within 24 hours.

By then it was already too late. On the morning of 20 January in Taiwan—still late in the evening of the 19th in the States—Taiwan’s government realized that, while the Taiwanese Armed Forces remained capable of putting up stiff resistance for a limited time, U.S. forces would require too much time to be brought to bear. In mid-morning, realizing Taiwan was on the brink of a bloodbath, Tsai Ing-wen reluctantly capitulated to Xi’s demands, expressing hope that the people of Taiwan would be able to retain at least some measure of freedom.

That evening in Beijing, three hours before the Chief Justice delivered the oath of office on the steps of the Capitol, Xi Jinping triumphantly addressed the Chinese people, declaring that the most important step in the “Chinese Dream,” which he had been championing as his future legacy since 2013, had now come true. He welcomed the people of Taiwan “home” and promised local elections down the road. Tsai’s government was replaced the next day by a group led by a Taiwan politician who had long called for reunification with the mainland.

What will happen in the next few months:

- US military officer visits Taiwan and military hardware visits Taiwan

- In retaliation PLA announces massive live fire military exercises off the east coast of Taiwan

- Live fire military exercise transforms into an air and naval blockade

- Simultaneously, Kinmen, Matsu and Penghu are taken

- Amphibious assault and occupation of Taipei are completed within three days

 

[Feng Leng]

Do China's recent military drills near Taiwan indicate shift in its Taiwan policy?

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-...t-in-its-Taiwan-policy--SYyfVGscrC/index.html

On Thursday, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) announced that it was carrying out military drills in the Taiwan Straits. Many Chinese mainland commentators have drawn attention to the "massive" and "unprecedented" scale of the exercises. The Chinese government explicitly stated that they were meant to send a very strong signal to the secessionists in Taiwan and those who intend to disrupt peace and stability across the Straits.

A Global Times article published on Thursday sounded no less "forceful" in its interpretation of the event. It quoted many Chinese mainland analysts as indicating that the drills went beyond a usual deterrence and well demonstrated the Chinese mainland's supreme ability to "launch attacks on Taiwan secessionists from any direction of the Taiwan Straits."

Given the "unprecedented" drills and the potent response from the Chinese mainland, is mainland's policy on Taiwan witnessing some kind of shift where it has significantly hardened its position on Taiwan?

In a way, it surely has. The fact that the PRC government, which normally would not give a political reason for military exercises or mention a particular target, this time explicitly stated its target and aims, gives very clear clues.

Zhong Houtao, a researcher at the Institute of Taiwan Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), pointed out that unlike in the past where the drill would have been concentrated in a particular area, this time it was carried out at multiple locations in the Straits including the northern and southern ends, which would pose crushing pressure on Taiwan in a real combat situation. In the meantime, he also emphasized that, unlike previously multiple units including the naval and the air force participated in the live ammunition exercises this time.

All these indicate that if a red line was crossed under any circumstance by the Taiwan side, the option of military action by the Chinese mainland is very much on the table. This bucks the prevailing consensus on the island that the mainland does not dare resort to military operations to solve the disputes over the sovereign status of Taiwan.

That said, it would be mistaken to think that military action is the preferred option for the Chinese mainland. Zhang Junshe, senior captain at China's Naval Research Institute and Zhang Hua, an associate research fellow at the Institute of Taiwan Studies, CASS, maintain that the mainland's overall policy over Taiwan remained unchanged which is that the "One China" policy is its bottom line but a "peaceful unification" is still the most ideal outcome for the mainland.

China's Anti-Secession Law, passed in 2005, outlines three scenarios where a military option would be considered, which involve the event of Taiwan's independence occurring or possibilities for a peaceful reunification being completely exhausted.

So yes, in those situations, which are extreme, China will resort to military actions and the recent military drills are intended to convey the message to both Taiwan and the United States. As Zhang Hua noted, the importance of national sovereignty and territorial integrity to the Chinese people should never be underestimated, and even in the event of the West sanctioning China over its military operation to reunify Taiwan, China will not budge an inch on the issue.

In the meantime, the Chinese mainland could not stress enough that its recent action with regards to Taiwan is nothing more than a response to a litany of provocations from both Taiwan and the United States.

The recent actions of Taiwan and the U.S. have touched a raw nerve. To start with, the secessionist forces in Taiwan have stepped up their actions to push for the so-called "independence". For example, since Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen's second term started, there have been forces in Taiwan calling for a new Constitution that would reflect Taiwan's current status and redefine the cross-straits relations. Zhong also pointed out that Taiwan in January passed the anti-infiltration law that has damaged the inter-personal exchanges between the Chinese mainland and the Taiwan region.

The increasing flirtation between Taiwan and the U.S. has also been deeply troubling for the Chinese mainland. U.S. HHS Secretary Alex Azar's recent visit to Taiwan, the most high-profile visit by a Washington Cabinet official since 1979, clearly violated the Joint Communique signed by China and the U.S., which prohibits the official-level contact between Taiwan and the U.S. Taiwan and the U.S. have also increased their "military cooperation" under the Trump administration. For instance, news has emerged in recent days that Taiwan had been in talks with the U.S. to purchase four sophisticated unmanned aerial drones to increase its military capacity.

In this sense, China is nothing but consistent on its policy on Taiwan and is merely defending its own sovereignty rights at a time when both of some internal and external forces are attempting to beat it down and tear it apart. The drills come as a warning for such forces. As Ma Ying-jeou, former leader of Taiwan, stated: "The first battle is the last battle (Shou Zhan Ji Jue Zhan)."

 

[52051]

According to US's own admiral's assessment, it will take about 3 days for China to take over Taiwan if war break out.

The main benefit of take over Taiwan will be offer us some rest from the pile of illogical bullshit fake news like 21 million Chinese died of COVID-19 they try to spread to China's internet

 

[Feng Leng]

According to US's own admiral's assessment, it will take about 3 days for China to take over Taiwan if war break out.

The main benefit of take over Taiwan will be offer us some rest from the pile of illogical bullshit fake news like 21 million Chinese died of COVID-19 they try to spread to China's internet

The day after Taiwan is occupied, I expect Xi Jinping will summon North Korea Kim and South Korea Moon to Beijing to discuss the expulsion of American troops from the Korean peninsula. Once US troops are expelled in Korea, the whole of East Asia will impose sanctions on Japan until they enter into civil unrest and the people rise up to expel the American troops similar to the Iranian revolution of 1979.

 

[bolo]

The day after Taiwan is occupied, I expect Xi Jinping will summon North Korea Kim and South Korea Moon to Beijing to discuss the expulsion of American troops from the Korean peninsula. Once US troops are expelled in Korea, the whole of East Asia will impose sanctions on Japan until they enter into civil unrest and the people rise up to expel the American troops similar to the Iranian revolution of 1979.

As per my Korean co-worker half the American soldiers has already left South Korea.

 

[Feng Leng]

Global Times editor-in-chief says:

The next escalation of US-Taiwan official relations will result in PLA exercises completely surrounding Taiwan from four directions.

Another escalation after that will result in PLAAF fighter jets appears in the skies over Taiwan.

It's up to the Taiwan regime to decide how far they want to go.

 

[Feng Leng]

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1197904.shtml

Mainland, not US, to decide time of national reunification

The Chinese mainland will not let the US decide when and how to reunify the island of Taiwan, and as the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has an overwhelming advantage in the region, reunifying Taiwan by force is not urgent as long as the separatist authority on the island and Washington do not cross the red line, said mainland experts on Sunday in response to a sensational projection by a US Navy think tank that the mainland could launch an attack on Taiwan in January, 2021.

"But there is a danger of war as the Trump administration is trying very hard to provoke China. Just like the enactment of the national security law for Hong Kong this year, if China is provoked too much, it will take action to respond at an appropriate time with its own plan, and the US will surely feel the pain," he noted.

A military expert at a Beijing-based military academy who asked for anonymity told the Global Times that US strategists are very clear that they will have no time or capability to interrupt a massive military operation launched by the PLA to reunify Taiwan, so the best option is to persuade US policymakers not to provoke China too much nor play a game of brinkmanship, as the US will get nothing from such risky behavior.

The PLA can launch airborne operations, landing operations, airstrikes and can bomb military targets at the same time. Cyber attacks will paralyze all communication, transportation and even energy supply systems on the island in just a few minutes, and special forces will seize and control some important facilities such as airports to allow reinforcements into major cities on the island. The separatist leaders of the island will be eliminated or captured on the first day, and there is no chance for foreign forces to intervene, he noted.

"Apart from a war, the PLA is capable of deterring US provocations, as well as the separatist authority on the island, in many ways, such as live-fire missile drills in the east waters of Taiwan Island and near Guam, sending bombers and fighter jets to fly over the 'airspace' of the island," he said.