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The trouble with Chinese data

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JayAtl

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In June, China's customs administration cracked down on false trade invoices that disguised money flows designed to get around capital controls.

It ended up reducing China's trade figures.

Now, 28 companies in Luliang county in Yunnan province have reported industrial output that was more than double what their actual production was last year.

According to Xinhua, the companies defended themselves and said that local officials had induced them to do so in exchange for loans from state-owned banks.

The trouble with Chinese data is that government officials have been set targets in the successive Five-Year Plans that govern the country's economic planning. And no official would want to miss their target.

So, it probably creates an upward bias in their reporting and overstates Chinese growth.

Growing discrepancy
This is one of the reasons why the National Bureau of Statistics gathers their own statistics from firms and households directly to compute economic growth, so as to not rely on local governments.

The gap between the national figure and the combined local figures was 2.7 trillion yuan ($440bn; £280bn) in 2009 and rose to 5.8 trillion yuan in 2012.

That would have added 11% to China's total gross domestic product (GDP) last year.

In the first half of this year, the output of all of the provinces was 3.2 trillion yuan higher than the national figure. Computing aggregate Chinese GDP based on provincial data would have put annual GDP expansion at well over 10% in the past three decades.

It's not to say that they can overcome all of the biases of course.

But, by directly measuring what firms produce and households earn, they also try and address another source of mis-measurement common in developing countries.

There may be income that isn't measured if a farmer sells some produce by the side of the road, or urban peddlers selling goods on the street.

The so-called grey economy can be fairly large as seen in countries around the world, adding more than 50% to GDP in places like the Middle East and Africa. For a country as vast as China, it is likewise a source of downward bias in its statistics.

Clampdown
In any case, these are hardly new complaints about the accuracy of Chinese statistics.

Before becoming premier, Li Keqiang had questioned the reliability of Chinese GDP. He was reported to have said to look instead at three direct indicators of economic activity: cargo volume on railways, electricity consumption, and bank loans.

The recent wave of action fits with the overall push by the new Chinese leaders to crack down on fraud and corruption. For Premier Li, it is an attempt to increase confidence in the Chinese economy.

Zheng Yuesheng, the spokesman for the customs agency, had said false trade declarations exist but were "definitely not mainstream".

We may soon find out.

BBC News - The trouble with Chinese data
 
LOL at Indians feeling so inferior. The article admits that national level statistics are accurate. The fixation on local government statistics is just for humiliated Indians and anti-China news media.
This is one of the reasons why the National Bureau of Statistics gathers their own statistics from firms and households directly to compute economic growth, so as to not rely on local governments.
 
To break this down as to why more and more economist are calling China's numbers as suspect are-

There are 3 basic indicators of economic growth. Now china uses a very different method than used by the rest of the world, but let us ignore that for now:

1. Electricity consumption- The amount of power used by households and firms. However this indicator does not work to well in China because they subsidize electricity rates ( some not all but enough to create a mis-match) .

2. The amount of cargo freight vs. allowing factories to tell how much they exported in china. We all know that recently china admitted to faking figures in Yunnan and Guangdong provinces this year.

3. The final one is bank loans. But this again is called into suspect by economist because- if you build "Ghost cities", this indicator gets skewed.
 
To break this down as to why more and more economist are calling China's numbers as a suspect are-

There are 3 basic indicators of economic growth. Now china uses a very different method than used by the rest of the world, but let us ignore that for now:

1. Electricity consumption- The amount of power used by households and firms. However does not work to well in China because ,they subsidize electricity rates ( some not all but enough to create a mis-match) .

2. The amount of cargo freight vs. allowing factories to tell how much the exported as in china. We all know that recently china admitted to faking figures in Yunnan and Guangdong provinces this year.

3. The final one is bank loans. But this again is called into suspect in China by economist because if you build "Ghost cities", this indicator gets skewed.

Ready for your 4th ban?
 
LOL at Indians feeling so inferior. The article admits that national level statistics are accurate. The fixation on local government statistics is just for humiliated Indians and anti-China news media.

Even so, gathering of false indicators as I have written above= fudged numbers.

Ready for your 4th ban?

come to save mother china by pretending to be a real american?
 
It is hard to estimate the Chinese macroeconomic figures, as there is no transparency on how these figures are actually arrived at, but few should doubt the size and growth of Chinese economy in last three decades. This can be gauged by the export figures that are collected by various international organizations across the world.
 
come to save mother china by pretending to be a real american?

Lol, I don't really like the Chinese that parrot tow the CPC party line, but surely you realize the hilarity within your statement?

An Indian pretending to be an American, telling an American he's not American enough!

You just stopped defecating on the street and you think that's enough to call yourself an American.

See ya in another two weeks.
 
Lol, I don't really like the Chinese that parrot tow the CPC party line, but surely you realize the hilarity within your statement?

An Indian pretending to be an American, telling an American he's not American enough!

You just stopped defecating on the street and you think that's enough to call yourself an American.

See ya in another two weeks.

mother china has made a deposit in your bank.

It is hard to estimate the Chinese macroeconomic figures, as there is no transparency on how these figures are actually arrived at, but few should doubt the size and growth of Chinese economy in last three decades. This can be gauged by the export figures that are collected by various international organizations across the world.

This can be gauged by the export figures that are collected by various international organizations across the world

albeit that is not how it works to show real GDP. even so exports have gone down and yet they keep claiming record breaking GDP.

China reports unexpectedly sharp fall in exports but imports up in positive sign for economy - The Washington Post
 
mother china has made a deposit in your bank.





albeit that is not how it works to show real GDP. even so exports have gone down and yet they keep claiming record breaking GDP.

China reports unexpectedly sharp fall in exports but imports up in positive sign for economy - The Washington Post

I am not contradicting you point. Yes, it is open secret that Chinese figures are in fact fudged and Chinese authorities do it for domestic reasons and ulterior motives, but it also cannot be denied that in the last three decades, China emerged as one of the most successful economies that world has ever witnessed.
 
I am not contradicting you point. Yes, it is open secret that Chinese figures are in fact fudged and Chinese authorities do it for domestic reasons and ulterior motives, but it also cannot be denied that in the last three decades, China emerged as one of the most successful economies that world has ever witnessed.

how do you deem " success criteria" - when the so called claim of being the second biggest GDP in the world is still an undeveloped country?
 
how do you deem " success criteria" - when the so called claim of being the second biggest GDP in the world is still an undeveloped country?

I would not consider China to be undeveloped but to be developing. And again developing and economic growth doesn't in fact contradict each other.
 
Like a good Indian slave you've stopped talking about the gene pools, as I demanded.

Good slave, good doggie.

You are right I should not talked about your gene pool, I figured you to be real american. but we know who you are- a minion of massa china
 
He told us his name is John Stossel(what a coincidence) and always ready to cheerlead for China. :omghaha:

It is obvious how he shy's away from Chinese insulting Americans. Occasionally to keep his cover, he will put a statement defending america w/ them- but 99.99% of times he focused on Indians and keep mum when they attack america. ahh well, they know to be a majority, overwhelming one in the US, to be seditious and to pretend to be white Americans.

he has @Aeronaut backing him up. He will let him make any racist comment against Indians and get away with it.
 
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