But for all that, a direct confrontation at sea is unlikely, says Alessio Patalano, a Japan naval historian and East Asia security specialist at the Department of War Studies, Kings College London. He notes that the patrol vessels cruising Senkaku/Diaoyu belong to neither Chinas navy nor its coast guard; instead, they are part of the Chinese marine-surveillance service, a largely civilian organization charged with environmental protection, scientific research, enforcement issues related to exclusive economic zones and similar duties.
The PLA Navy is aware of its limitations, and they dont want to get a beating from the Japanese, says Patalano, who presented a series of lectures in Beijing and Tokyo this month. The more likely scenario would be for China to insert special forces under cover of night, by parachute or other means. When the Japanese wake up in the morning and see Chinese soldiers on one of their islands, what do they do then?
Brad Glosserman, executive director of the Pacific Forum CSIS in Honolulu, says theres little doubt that the U.S. would respond if shooting were to break out between China and Japan. The key, Glosserman says, is to make sure the Japanese know exactly what they can count on from the U.S. and what, if anything, they cant.
The U.S. will be there, because if we arent, our credibility is shot and the Japanese will never trust us again. That would transform the regional security environment, and the Chinese will think they have carte blanche, says Glosserman. But the problem is, do Americans and Japanese agree on what being there means? Does that mean submarines? Surface warships? Helicopters with Marines rappelling to the ground? The Americans need to understand what the Japanese expect of them, because failure to do those things could cause big problems.
by the way,as for starters,did you ever hear about Chinese Civil War??
