At the end of the Joint Parliamentary Session today, Mr. Imran Khan announced the release of Indian pilot as a peace overture. Here we analyze this move.
Whenever a military operation is conducted, there should be well defined aims and objectives behind it. For India, there is a clear, and internationally recognized narrative which uses a background of terrorism as the license for military action.
On the flip side of this coin, Pakistan is a victim of an systematic, insidious, and poisonous Indian campaign to malign its good name and portray it as a source of terror and extremism at the international level. Internally, the Indian government has sought to whip up a war hysteria, inflame passions, and degrade Pakistan's image amongst the Indian public.
From both sides of the coin, the Indian military actions can be called a resounding success. Yes, this success would have been sweetened if India obtained a decisive military victory, but instead it got a military humiliation. But the key question for Pakistan to ask is this: has the military humiliation translated into a defeat of Indian poisonous designs against Pakistan? Let us look at some evidences.
During the conferences of the three forces chiefs, the A.V.M of IAF when asked explicitly "Do you see the release of Abhinandan by Imran Khan as a good will gesture?", his response was "We only see it as a gesture in consonance with all the Geneva Conventions". The Indian military does not see, does not accept any goodwill on the part of Pakistan.
Second, in a unilateral proclamation of releasing Indian prisoner, has Imran Khan assured an incontrovertible diplomatic success for Pakistan's vested interests, which is the comprehensive denouncement of the Indian narrative? This is extremely far removed from reality. On Indian television, their ex Minister of External Affairs is on record saying that India has established a new norm of unilateral strikes against terror targets from which it is not backing down.
Without any guarantee of safeguarding Pakistani interests, why would Imran Khan agree to such a move? The only logical explanation is that he is far removed from the reality of the world. In the supposedly high profile world of telephonic conversations with world leaders, Mr. Khan's mind seems to have left the reality on earth, and sees himself as a world leader of much gravitas and stature. His mind shows himself as a bold leader of principles and values. This dissociation from reality due to a sens of self-grandiosity is the signature hallmark of ineffective Pakistani leaders.
Since Imran Khan gave an example of Bahadur Shah Zafar and Tipu Sultan, let us also consider the examples of other Muslim elites. They pawned away huge pieces of land in games of chess under the influence of women and alcohol. Now Imran Khan cannot be blamed with indulgence in these exact sins, but the kind of grandiose euphoria that leads him to perceive himself as a world leader of class and caliber, is concomitant with dopamine release from alcohol consumption.
Having looked at the facts, let us try to postulate what can go horribly wrong as a result of this move. First of all, Imran Khan needs to answer to the nation, has he factored in the Indian narrative post-release of Mr. Abhinandan? What if IAF claims that Abhinandan downed the Pakistani F-16 using his Mig-21 and was subsequently shot down as well? Is Imran Khan willing to provide a guarantee to the nation that this will not happen?
But more importantly, what guarantee can Imran Khan provide that this is not simply a tactical retreat by the Modi government to secure release of a prisoner that is causing them loss of face throughout India? How can he assure the nation that India will not escalate again, this time using purely stand off weapons, missiles, and troop movements instead of risking the capture of high value targets?
It is unfortunately that instead of charting a course that serves the vested interests of Pakistan, Imran Khan has once again set us on a course of subservience, and valid ridicule amongst nations. Whereas his own stature may increase superficially vis a vis the treatment he receives from world leaders, the stature of Pakistani nation will only decrease. I will stop just short of labeling this treason against this nation. Unfortunately, in the divided Pakistani nation, treason is called leadership even as our neighbor is united in labeling war mongering as peace. Shame on us, indeed.
