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The Middle-Eastern conflict: Threatening for Pakistan and China’s OBOR

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The Middle-Eastern conflict: Threatening for Pakistan and China’s OBOR
Global Village Space |


James M. Dorsey |

Increasingly caught up in the Middle East’s multiple conflicts, Pakistan is struggling to balance relations with rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran amid concern in Islamabad that the potential US-Saudi efforts to destabilize the Islamic Republic could turn its crucial province of Balochistan – a linchpin in China’s One Belt, One Road initiative -into a battleground.

Pakistani officials fear that China may be seeking closer ties with India at Pakistan’s expense, despite its massive $56 billion investment in Pakistani infrastructure that centers on linking the troubled Baloch port of Gwadar, a gateway to the Gulf, with China’s restive, north-western province of Xinjiang.

Adding to Pakistani fears are increased tensions with Afghanistan following a clash in early May between Pakistani and Afghan forces in which 15 people were killed and dozens wounded.

Pakistani officials see a statement by China’s ambassador to India, Luo Zhaohui, that China had no interest in being dragged into the Pakistani-Indian dispute over Kashmir, as an indication that Beijing is cozying up to New Delhi at Islamabad’s expense.

Read more: “We can think about renaming CPEC” China offers India

Mr. Zhaohui was trying to persuade India to engage with One Belt, One Road on the eve of a summit in Beijing to promote China’s geopolitical ploy in Eurasia. Twenty-eight heads of state, including Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, were expected to attend the summit.

Pak-Afghan relations: Adding to Pakistan’s worries
Adding to Pakistani fears are increased tensions with Afghanistan following a clash in early May between Pakistani and Afghan forces in which 15 people were killed and dozens wounded. The clash occurred days after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani rejected an invitation to visit Pakistan conveyed by Pakistani intelligence chief Lt. General Naveed Mukhtar.

Sources close to Mr. Ghani quoted the president as telling General Mukhtar that none of the 48 agreements signed with Pakistan during his 2014 visit to Islamabad had been implemented. The agreements included an understanding that Pakistan would bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. “I spent political capital on that. That was the deal,” the sources quoted Mr. Ghani as saying.

Two attacks in 48 hours highlighted the mounting tension in Balochistan against the backdrop of thinly veiled Saudi threats to stir ethnic unrest across the Baloch border in the Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchistan.

Sources close to the Taliban and Pakistani intelligence said Mr. Ghani’s rejection of the invitation followed two meetings in Norway on January 8 and 18 in the waning days of the Obama administration between an unidentified member of the US Congress, a CIA official, and representatives of the Taliban.

The officials said the meetings focused on the possibility of the release of an American-Canadian couple who have been held by the Taliban since 2012. The sources said the talks also explored, unsuccessfully, ways of negotiating an end to the fighting in Afghanistan. A spokesperson for the US embassy in Islamabad declined to comment.

Read more: Making a success story out of CPEC: Certain, probable, or doubtful?

Meanwhile, two attacks in 48 hours highlighted the mounting tension in Balochistan against the backdrop of thinly veiled Saudi threats to stir ethnic unrest across the Baloch border in the Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchistan and among the Islamic republic’s minority Iranian Arab, Kurdish and Azerbaijani minorities.

Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) gunmen on motorbikes opened fire on construction workers in Gwadar, killing ten. The attack exploited widespread discontent among Baloch that they were not benefitting from massive Chinese investment in their province that was providing employment primarily for workers from elsewhere in Pakistan. The victims of the attack were from the Pakistani province of Sindh.

“This conspiratorial plan (CPEC) is not acceptable to the Baloch people under any circumstances. Baloch independence movements have made it clear several times that they will not abandon their people’s future in the name of development projects or even democracy.”
– BLA spokesman Jeander Baloch.

Mr. Baloch was referring to Chinese investment in what has been dubbed the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

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The Middle-Eastern conflict: Threatening for Pakistan and China’s OBOR
 
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