The Galwan Valley effects, the QUAD, and the Covid. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

[vi-va]

The Galwan Valley effects, the QUAD, and the Covid. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Hey Guys,

Almost 2 years has passed since 2020 Galwan Valley skirmish, and the world is gradually recovering from Covid.
My 2 cents on India.

The Good
India was in relative good position before 2020:

1. US was on India's back, at least orally.
2. Russia was trying hard to explore India weapon market.
3. India GDP growth rate is high. (I knew, I knew, they fabricate the data, but still relatively high)
4. FDI inflow is huge
5. Oil price is historically low.
6. Inflation is relatively low.
7. Budget deficit is low, about 3%, lowest
8. Modi won 2019 general election
9. BJP got majority in Parliament
10. BJP support rate is high, especially in Hindi Belt
11. BJP control most of the constituencies

The Bad
After 2020 Galwan Valley skirmish:

1. US was on India's back orally only.
2. QUAD was marginalized, AUKUS is US new focus.
3. Russia was upset over India's stance between the West and Russia confrontation.
4. India pro west stance alienated old friend Russia, which created opportunities for Pakistan to rebuild ties with Russia.
5. India is facing two front war, India dream comes true.
6. BJP screwed up the 12 billions USD for 126 Rafale aircraft purchase during Congress regime, now have to swallow the bitter pills, which is 200 millions per jet.
7. Hit by Covid-19
8. Modi covid handling created a big mess across the nation, economy free fall, worst among emerging market
9. India GDP growth rate is 4.04% in 2019, but -8% in 2020.
10. BJP give green light to Kumbh Mela, second wave of Delta hit India again.
11. Oil price is higher.
12. Inflation is higher.
13. Unemployment rate is higher
14. Budget deficit is -9.3% of GDP, highest
15. 2020–2021 Indian farmers' protest damaged BJP support rate, and Modi prestige.
16. BJP failed to further expand political footprint in India, failed in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu

The Ugly

The Galwan Valley effects, the QUAD, and the Covid:

1. India lost relative large territory, but BJP tried every means to cover it up. US knew it. China knew it, Pakistan knew it, the rest of countries in subcontinent knew it, the whole world which has the least intelligence knew it.
2. US disappointed that India is not a useful military asset, can NOT take on China, not worth further investment.
3. US created AUKUS to replace QUAD, India as part of QUAD was dropped, a much narrowed alliance based on cultural, language, and blood.
4. Pakistan and Bangladesh are encouraged by Galwan Valley skirmish.
5. Nepal raised the disputed territory issues with India.
6. Even Bhutan tried to escape from India's control.
7. India feels unsafe, BJP pro west foreign policy went too far, lost her balance.
8. BJP tried to mend ties with Russia
9. Putin visited India, arm purchase deal, S-400, etc. disappointed the West, India tried to rebalance the relationship with major powers.
10. BJP lifted the curfew in India Occupied Kashmir, what India got in Kashmir after all ? More hostilities among Kashmiris.
11. BJP created a more Hindu-Muslim divided India. More hate to each other
12. Will Segregation Policy applied in India? Like Black/White Apartheid policy in South Africa, or Segregation in US before 1960s?
13. RCEP signed, ratification is done, effective in 1 January 2022. India is out of it.
14. BJP/Modi repeal 3 farm law. A retreat for election. Miscalculation, prestige damaged, net loss of political capital.
15. Bipin Rawat is dead. Military reform stagnant.

Appendix:
Oil price

RCEP Ratifications

At €7.8B, Why Indian Rafale Jets Are 'Double The Cost' Than Egyptian Rafales?

The sale of 30 Rafale fighter jets by France to Egypt has raised eyebrows in India. Earlier, France & India had signed a pact for 36 Rafale jets at double rate.

eurasiantimes.com

India Is Eager for Putin’s Weapons Despite U.S. Sanctions Risk

Washington may look the other way as it enlists India into efforts to contain China.

www.bloomberg.com

The Hindu-Muslim divide is India’s biggest challenge

There are enough Muslim leaders to create an impression that Muslims are suffering because of a government wedded to nationalist ideology. They call it Hindu oriented government to make the divide sharper and create their own political constituency. - TheDailyGuardian

thedailyguardian.com

 

[vi-va]

@Joe Shearer, I found the book mentioned by @SIPRA
India’s Envoy to China 1961–63 P K Banerjee’s China Days

 

[Joe Shearer]

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@Joe Shearer, I found the book mentioned by @SIPRA
India’s Envoy to China 1961–63 P K Banerjee’s China Days

I know, you said so. I plan to get it, if I have to buy it. If it is in PDF form, maybe I can download it immediately.

The Galwan Valley effects, the QUAD, and the Covid. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Hey Guys,

Almost 2 years has passed since 2020 Galwan Valley skirmish, and the world is gradually recovering from Covid.
My 2 cents on India.

The Good
India was in relative good position before 2020:

1. US was on India's back, at least orally.
2. Russia was trying hard to explore India weapon market.
3. India GDP growth rate is high. (I knew, I knew, they fabricate the data, but still relatively high)
4. FDI inflow is huge
5. Oil price is historically low.
6. Inflation is relatively low.
7. Budget deficit is low, about 3%, lowest
8. Modi won 2019 general election
9. BJP got majority in Parliament
10. BJP support rate is high, especially in Hindi Belt
11. BJP control most of the constituencies

The Bad
After 2020 Galwan Valley skirmish:

1. US was on India's back orally only.
2. QUAD was marginalized, AUKUS is US new focus.
3. Russia was upset over India's stance between the West and Russia confrontation.
4. India pro west stance alienated old friend Russia, which created opportunities for Pakistan to rebuild ties with Russia.
5. India is facing two front war, India dream comes true.
6. BJP screwed up the 12 billions USD for 126 Rafale aircraft purchase during Congress regime, now have to swallow the bitter pills, which is 200 millions per jet.
7. Hit by Covid-19
8. Modi covid handling created a big mess across the nation, economy free fall, worst among emerging market
9. India GDP growth rate is 4.04% in 2019, but -8% in 2020.
10. BJP give green light to Kumbh Mela, second wave of Delta hit India again.
11. Oil price is higher.
12. Inflation is higher.
13. Unemployment rate is higher
14. Budget deficit is -9.3% of GDP, highest
15. 2020–2021 Indian farmers' protest damaged BJP support rate, and Modi prestige.
16. BJP failed to further expand political footprint in India, failed in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu

The Ugly

The Galwan Valley effects, the QUAD, and the Covid:

1. India lost relative large territory, but BJP tried every means to cover it up. US knew it. China knew it, Pakistan knew it, the rest of countries in subcontinent knew it, the whole world which has the least intelligence knew it.
2. US disappointed that India is not a useful military asset, can NOT take on China, not worth further investment.
3. US created AUKUS to replace QUAD, India as part of QUAD was dropped, a much narrowed alliance based on cultural, language, and blood.
4. Pakistan and Bangladesh are encouraged by Galwan Valley skirmish.
5. Nepal raised the disputed territory issues with India.
6. Even Bhutan tried to escape from India's control.
7. India feels unsafe, BJP pro west foreign policy went too far, lost her balance.
8. BJP tried to mend ties with Russia
9. Putin visited India, arm purchase deal, S-400, etc. disappointed the West, India tried to rebalance the relationship with major powers.
10. BJP lifted the curfew in India Occupied Kashmir, what India got in Kashmir after all ? More hostilities among Kashmiris.
11. BJP created a more Hindu-Muslim divided India. More hate to each other
12. Will Segregation Policy applied in India? Like Black/White Apartheid policy in South Africa, or Segregation in US before 1960s?
13. RCEP signed, ratification is done, effective in 1 January 2022. India is out of it.
14. BJP/Modi repeal 3 farm law. A retreat for election. Miscalculation, prestige damaged, net loss of political capital.
15. Bipin Rawat is dead. Military reform stagnant.

Appendix:
Oil price
View attachment 819697

View attachment 819714

View attachment 819715

View attachment 819711

RCEP Ratifications
View attachment 819734

At €7.8B, Why Indian Rafale Jets Are 'Double The Cost' Than Egyptian Rafales?

The sale of 30 Rafale fighter jets by France to Egypt has raised eyebrows in India. Earlier, France & India had signed a pact for 36 Rafale jets at double rate.

eurasiantimes.com

India Is Eager for Putin’s Weapons Despite U.S. Sanctions Risk

Washington may look the other way as it enlists India into efforts to contain China.

www.bloomberg.com

The Hindu-Muslim divide is India’s biggest challenge

There are enough Muslim leaders to create an impression that Muslims are suffering because of a government wedded to nationalist ideology. They call it Hindu oriented government to make the divide sharper and create their own political constituency. - TheDailyGuardian

thedailyguardian.com

Very good assessment. I have some differences, but it is really very good.

 

[SIPRA]

The Galwan Valley effects, the QUAD, and the Covid. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Hey Guys,

Almost 2 years has passed since 2020 Galwan Valley skirmish, and the world is gradually recovering from Covid.
My 2 cents on India.

The Good
India was in relative good position before 2020:

1. US was on India's back, at least orally.
2. Russia was trying hard to explore India weapon market.
3. India GDP growth rate is high. (I knew, I knew, they fabricate the data, but still relatively high)
4. FDI inflow is huge
5. Oil price is historically low.
6. Inflation is relatively low.
7. Budget deficit is low, about 3%, lowest
8. Modi won 2019 general election
9. BJP got majority in Parliament
10. BJP support rate is high, especially in Hindi Belt
11. BJP control most of the constituencies

The Bad
After 2020 Galwan Valley skirmish:

1. US was on India's back orally only.
2. QUAD was marginalized, AUKUS is US new focus.
3. Russia was upset over India's stance between the West and Russia confrontation.
4. India pro west stance alienated old friend Russia, which created opportunities for Pakistan to rebuild ties with Russia.
5. India is facing two front war, India dream comes true.
6. BJP screwed up the 12 billions USD for 126 Rafale aircraft purchase during Congress regime, now have to swallow the bitter pills, which is 200 millions per jet.
7. Hit by Covid-19
8. Modi covid handling created a big mess across the nation, economy free fall, worst among emerging market
9. India GDP growth rate is 4.04% in 2019, but -8% in 2020.
10. BJP give green light to Kumbh Mela, second wave of Delta hit India again.
11. Oil price is higher.
12. Inflation is higher.
13. Unemployment rate is higher
14. Budget deficit is -9.3% of GDP, highest
15. 2020–2021 Indian farmers' protest damaged BJP support rate, and Modi prestige.
16. BJP failed to further expand political footprint in India, failed in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu

The Ugly

The Galwan Valley effects, the QUAD, and the Covid:

1. India lost relative large territory, but BJP tried every means to cover it up. US knew it. China knew it, Pakistan knew it, the rest of countries in subcontinent knew it, the whole world which has the least intelligence knew it.
2. US disappointed that India is not a useful military asset, can NOT take on China, not worth further investment.
3. US created AUKUS to replace QUAD, India as part of QUAD was dropped, a much narrowed alliance based on cultural, language, and blood.
4. Pakistan and Bangladesh are encouraged by Galwan Valley skirmish.
5. Nepal raised the disputed territory issues with India.
6. Even Bhutan tried to escape from India's control.
7. India feels unsafe, BJP pro west foreign policy went too far, lost her balance.
8. BJP tried to mend ties with Russia
9. Putin visited India, arm purchase deal, S-400, etc. disappointed the West, India tried to rebalance the relationship with major powers.
10. BJP lifted the curfew in India Occupied Kashmir, what India got in Kashmir after all ? More hostilities among Kashmiris.
11. BJP created a more Hindu-Muslim divided India. More hate to each other
12. Will Segregation Policy applied in India? Like Black/White Apartheid policy in South Africa, or Segregation in US before 1960s?
13. RCEP signed, ratification is done, effective in 1 January 2022. India is out of it.
14. BJP/Modi repeal 3 farm law. A retreat for election. Miscalculation, prestige damaged, net loss of political capital.
15. Bipin Rawat is dead. Military reform stagnant.

Appendix:
Oil price
View attachment 819697

View attachment 819714

View attachment 819715

View attachment 819711

RCEP Ratifications
View attachment 819734

At €7.8B, Why Indian Rafale Jets Are 'Double The Cost' Than Egyptian Rafales?

The sale of 30 Rafale fighter jets by France to Egypt has raised eyebrows in India. Earlier, France & India had signed a pact for 36 Rafale jets at double rate.

eurasiantimes.com

India Is Eager for Putin’s Weapons Despite U.S. Sanctions Risk

Washington may look the other way as it enlists India into efforts to contain China.

www.bloomberg.com

The Hindu-Muslim divide is India’s biggest challenge

There are enough Muslim leaders to create an impression that Muslims are suffering because of a government wedded to nationalist ideology. They call it Hindu oriented government to make the divide sharper and create their own political constituency. - TheDailyGuardian

thedailyguardian.com

By and large, a very good assessment; though a few points can be contested.

 

[Joe Shearer]

By and large, a very good assessment; though a few points can be contested.

I am a little perplexed.

How come we see some gentlemen who are not wolf warriors? Those exist as well, and never let go; more hyenas than wolves, but nuisances. Then there is this unsettling new breed, with whom one can actually have a conversation.

 

[vi-va]

I know, you said so. I plan to get it, if I have to buy it. If it is in PDF form, maybe I can download it immediately.


Very good assessment. I have some differences, but it is really very good.

Please see my attachment. I download it from somewhere 2 days ago.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Please see my attachment. I download it from somewhere 2 days ago.
View attachment 819790

Thanks. Brilliant. Much obliged.

 

[Leishangthem]

Indians scams world from call centers but India gets scammed on the international stage as a nation ,Quad which was originally made to deal with Tsunami ,now US hijacked quad as a front against china and India is just a puppet that get rag-dolled into Washington's whims,India just went along.And to think that clueless Indians are so proud of US disingenuously hijacking Quad for their own cause.