It will not, if we discount the construction of the fabs, which includes installation of all the tools. When words became official that TSMC, Intel, and Micron will expand in the US, I was headhunted to AZ, so I started asking questions in my (engineering) network.
All the major semicon manufacturers have their own version of Intel's 'Copy Smart' program.
en.wikipedia.org
Despite its simple concept, it is actually very difficult in execution, and I do not use the word
'very' in a casual manner. It require a near military discipline level of doing anything. You have at best a %5 margin of flexibility in doing anything, and whatever deviation encountered that require you going outside of that margin, you need M2 or even 'Director' level approval, meaning going back to Santa Clara, virtually or physically, to explain the why/what/when/where the deviation occurred. For example, Asians are generally shorter statures than Europeans so tools must be ergonomically adjusted from site to site, and this would be a 'Director' level approval change because ergonomics were found to have direct correlation to yield.
Anyway...Once a site is physically up and running wafers, it has taken Intel as soon as two wafer start cycles for products to be commercially accepted. Industry norm is four cycles or two yrs. A wafer start cycle is literally from when a batch starts its first chemical cleanse to when the wafers leave the Probe Dept, where I am currently working, and that is about 4-6 months. So halving the time for a site to be commercially accepted is an accomplishment. So if we are looking at 2-3 yrs of fab construction, maybe stretching out to 4 yrs to accommodate delays, then 1 to 1.5 yrs for product acceptance, we are looking at 5-6 yrs for TSMC US to match Taiwan's. It will not be easy but it is doable.
The bottom line here is that the combination of COVID and the Ukraine-Russia war shocked the First World countries into realizing how foolish we were in being so dependent on Asia for semicon products, and how threatening China is to that global stability of semicon products. The belief, rightly or wrongly, is that the CPC is willing to destroy the industry over Taiwan, and everyone is willing to spend billions to preserve the industry. Geography and geopolitical considerations made CONUS the safest place to preserve and expand the industry. The EU is slightly less secure because of the proximity to Russia, as we are experiencing that vulnerability now.