Taiwan will forcefully expel PLA warplanes next time: Tsai Ing-wen

[phancong]

Buddy, what you posts in this forum are the real fiction. Mine just happens to be more believable.

I'm not your buddy or bro, not interest whatever you wrote about your battle plan. No body know, wait for the bullet to fly then watch the show, till then all none sense being discussed.

 

[Mav3rick]

Your conclusion is wrong.

To date, the greatest SUCCESSFUL amphibious assault is D-Day, the invasion of Normandy, France. The Allies sent over one million men against a defending force of about 300,000. In a China vs Taiwan scenario, we would be looking at the same ratio. If Taiwan decide to declare independence, there would be nothing China can do regarding an invasion to subdue Taiwan. That leave standoff bombardment, meaning missiles and also meaning leaving Taiwan an utterly uninhabitable wasteland. I doubt China have the stomach to commit that level of atrocity OVER MONTHS OF BOMBARDMENT just out of national pride. The Chinese members in this forum never served a single day in uniform so simply put -- they do not know what they are talking about.

D-Day was about an alliance of countries, it wasn't just the US which landed forces in France. And your claims are exaggerated, it was 150k to 50k by most sources particularly for the D-Day assault and subsequent capture.

But it is pointless to discuss D-Day as with Technology today, China can have real time imaging and information of defensive formations and can use precise munitions to take out all fortifications and concentrations of defensive setups. China can probably use just artillery to achieve the objective effectively. And once China Jams communication in Taiwan with EW assets and takes out all SAM sites, Military Bases etc., from her stealth Jets with standoff weapons, the willpower will be broken. And all of this will start with a Naval blockade of Taiwan so that no external help is available.

As for US involvement, looking at the map...

The PLA KNOWS that the least the US have to do is station subs on the eastern side of Taiwan effectively preventing the PLA from even flanking the island, let alone encircle it. If the US decides to station an aircraft carrier on that eastern side, the US will have air supremacy over Taiwanese airspace. China's DF-21D will not matter. China will do NOTHING regarding US mainland. We can resupply Taiwan practically indefinitely on the eastern side of the island. China will go broke building missiles before Taiwan is defeated.

As I said above, the process will begin with encirclement and blockade of Taiwan which will be a surprise move. There is NO way that Taiwan could be resupplied. And US Air Supremacy with just a single Aircraft carrier is a myth of your imagination, it would be outgunned in a matter of time......hell even the entire AC fleet would eventually be useless so close to Chinese mainland as China would merely swarm your AC with Fighters, Drones and other Naval assets.

P.S. Takeover of Taiwan is still in the future, maybe 20 years from today........you can imagine military muscle of China in 20 years vis-a-vis US; will not be a pushover I am sure.

 

[LeGenD]

@Mav3rick

FYI: https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/what-it-would-really-take-to-sink-a-modern-aircraft-car-1794182843

Easy for you to draw conclusions based on limited information, and a layer of disinformation. All you need is to understand things a bit on technical level.

As I pointed out earlier, Russian defenses utterly failed to stop American aggression against Syrian regime on April 14, 2018, and this was not due to restraint. Russian defenses in Syria were subjected to electronic warfare and American Arleigh Burke Class destroyers, Jets and submarines were patrolling the Mediterranian to make sure that Russian navy will not be in the position to disrupt American military operations from the seas.

I have had a serious discussion about American options to blunt Chinese strike options, and the relevant Chinese friend acknowledged what I had to say. I can dig up this discussion for you, just in case.

Now, very recently, Chinese leadership admitted inferiority to US in the matters if power-projection. They were being humble, but they also understand a lot beneath the surface.

China haven't attempted invading Taiwan in a long time and this is due to multitude of factors including Chinese shortcomings in the aspect of pulling off a major overseas expedition (invading a geographically distant foreign entity). People look at American capability in this regard, and mistakenly assume that this is easy. NOPE.

FYI: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/can-china-conquer-taiwan/

My point is that a potential war over Taiwan can turn unpredictable for China. US can transform Taiwan into a fortress of resistance and wreck Chinese naval forces in the Pacific - it does not need to strike at Chinese mainland, to achieve its objective to disrupt Chinese effort to subjugate Taiwan. This is the point.

My assessment haven't been wrong before, and Chinese leadership's views are in front of you as well. I find the 'I am deluded' remarks all the more amusing though.

Question is not about China's ability to defeat Taiwan in a war, but what US is willing to do about this.

And spare me 'nuclear war' mantra please - go and read about Chinese official nuclear doctrine first. Nuclear weapons are not firecrackers that will be unleashed over night. If the war is to turn nuclear, US will most likely pre-empt and...

FYI: https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/aft...nst-icbm-china-warns-of-proceeding-carefully/

Chinese military official was really concerned about American capacity to BLUNT Chinese 2nd strike option with its GMD network. He didn't even bother to talk about BLUNTING 1st strike option. I have studied nuclear forces and doctrines of both countries and I understand where he is coming from. Go figure.

Coming back to main point:

If China does not get Taiwan then... concentrate on this. All should stick to this.

 

[gambit]

As I said above, the process will begin with encirclement and blockade of Taiwan which will be a surprise move.

No, there will be no surprises. Even back in WW II, there were signs of Nazi Germany's hostile intent, the Euros were just too gullible to notice those signs. When I got orders for Desert Storm deployment, the world have been watching the buildup for months. Prior to the physical aspects of an impending war, the politics would have been evident. Tensions, diplomatic overtures, a gradual silence by the militaries of all sides, the markets starts behaving conservatively, do I need to continue?

 

[phancong]

@Mav3rick

FYI: https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/what-it-would-really-take-to-sink-a-modern-aircraft-car-1794182843

Easy for you to draw conclusions based on limited information, and a layer of disinformation. All you need is to understand things a bit on technical level.

As I pointed out earlier, Russian defenses utterly failed to stop American aggression against Syrian regime on April 14, 2018, and this was not due to restraint. Russian defenses in Syria were subjected to electronic warfare and American Arleigh Burke Class destroyers, Jets and submarines were patrolling the Mediterranian to make sure that Russian navy will not be in the position to disrupt American military operations from the seas.

I have had a serious discussion about American options to blunt Chinese strike options, and the relevant Chinese friend acknowledged what I had to say. I can dig up this discussion for you, just in case.

Now, very recently, Chinese leadership admitted inferiority to US in the matters if power-projection. They were being humble, but they also understand a lot beneath the surface.

China haven't attempted invading Taiwan in a long time and this is due to multitude of factors including Chinese shortcomings in the aspect of pulling off a major overseas expedition (invading a geographically distant foreign entity). People look at American capability in this regard, and mistakenly assume that this is easy. NOPE.

FYI: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/can-china-conquer-taiwan/

My point is that a potential war over Taiwan can turn unpredictable for China. US can transform Taiwan into a fortress of resistance and wreck Chinese naval forces in the Pacific - it does not need to strike at Chinese mainland, to achieve its objective to disrupt Chinese effort to subjugate Taiwan. This is the point.

My assessment haven't been wrong before, and Chinese leadership's views are in front of you as well. I find the 'I am deluded' remarks all the more amusing though.

Question is not about China's ability to defeat Taiwan in a war, but what US is willing to do about this.

And spare me 'nuclear war' mantra please - go and read about Chinese official nuclear doctrine first. Nuclear weapons are not firecrackers that will be unleashed over night. If the war is to turn nuclear, US will most likely pre-empt and...

FYI: https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/aft...nst-icbm-china-warns-of-proceeding-carefully/

Chinese military official was really concerned about BLUNTING Chinese 2nd strike option with its GMD network in the picture. He didn't even bother to talk about BLUNTING 1st strike option. I connected some dots for you.

Coming back to main point:

If China does not get Taiwan then... concentrate on this. All should stick to this.

You should tell us how US effectively blunt the Russian military in Ukraine civil war then I convinced US military superiority over the Russian in Russia border. There no US troop attack any Russian troops in Ukraine but in Syria 1000 miles away from Russia, US military of course we're more superiority because of the US power projection and US air superiority.

 

[LeGenD]

You should tell us how US effectively blunt the Russian military in Ukraine civil war then I convinced US military superiority over the Russian in Russia border. There no US troop attack any Russian troops in Ukraine but in Syria 1000 miles away from Russia, US military of course we're more superiority because of the US power projection and US air superiority.

US didn't intervene in Ukraine, mate. Nope.

My point is that when it came down to exchanging blows, Russian defenses stood no chance against American forces - asymmetry factor.

Nevertheless, Russia is a nuclear behemoth (USSR-based legacy), and this is why Russia can get away with mischief from time-to-time. However, things can still go wrong in overseas experiments as apparent from the case study of Soviet-Afghan War in the 1980s.

Taiwan's situation is different as in US would want to leverage this card for potential Chinese concessions in regards to North Korea at some point.

Of-course, the prospects of American intervention in Taiwan are predisposed on how successive American governments perceive the One China dynamic. Trump administration does not accept this dynamic. Not sure what will be the situation in future.

Here is something; this newfound confidence in Taiwan is due to backing of Trump administration. Should this backing erode in the future, Taiwan's tone will change overnight.

 

[Mav3rick]

No, there will be no surprises. Even back in WW II, there were signs of Nazi Germany's hostile intent, the Euros were just too gullible to notice those signs. When I got orders for Desert Storm deployment, the world have been watching the buildup for months. Prior to the physical aspects of an impending war, the politics would have been evident. Tensions, diplomatic overtures, a gradual silence by the militaries of all sides, the markets starts behaving conservatively, do I need to continue?

Again, I must insist on my point, the proximity of Taiwan to Chinese Mainland is the biggest advantage China has for surprise maneuvers, it would literally take China hours to encircle and establish Naval Blockade.

 

[LeGenD]

Again, I must insist on my point, the proximity of Taiwan to Chinese Mainland is the biggest advantage China has for surprise maneuvers, it would literally take China hours to encircle and establish Naval Blockade.

This is possible. China have a military base in the SCS sector on top. Proximity is an important consideration.

 

[rashid.sarwar]

Just a novice question, will Chinese missile will make a difference as I heard there were some 800 chinese missiles pointing to taiwan?

@Mav3rick

FYI: https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/what-it-would-really-take-to-sink-a-modern-aircraft-car-1794182843

Easy for you to draw conclusions based on limited information, and a layer of disinformation. All you need is to understand things a bit on technical level.

As I pointed out earlier, Russian defenses utterly failed to stop American aggression against Syrian regime on April 14, 2018, and this was not due to restraint. Russian defenses in Syria were subjected to electronic warfare and American Arleigh Burke Class destroyers, Jets and submarines were patrolling the Mediterranian to make sure that Russian navy will not be in the position to disrupt American military operations from the seas.

I have had a serious discussion about American options to blunt Chinese strike options, and the relevant Chinese friend acknowledged what I had to say. I can dig up this discussion for you, just in case.

Now, very recently, Chinese leadership admitted inferiority to US in the matters if power-projection. They were being humble, but they also understand a lot beneath the surface.

China haven't attempted invading Taiwan in a long time and this is due to multitude of factors including Chinese shortcomings in the aspect of pulling off a major overseas expedition (invading a geographically distant foreign entity). People look at American capability in this regard, and mistakenly assume that this is easy. NOPE.

FYI: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/can-china-conquer-taiwan/

My point is that a potential war over Taiwan can turn unpredictable for China. US can transform Taiwan into a fortress of resistance and wreck Chinese naval forces in the Pacific - it does not need to strike at Chinese mainland, to achieve its objective to disrupt Chinese effort to subjugate Taiwan. This is the point.

My assessment haven't been wrong before, and Chinese leadership's views are in front of you as well. I find the 'I am deluded' remarks all the more amusing though.

Question is not about China's ability to defeat Taiwan in a war, but what US is willing to do about this.

And spare me 'nuclear war' mantra please - go and read about Chinese official nuclear doctrine first. Nuclear weapons are not firecrackers that will be unleashed over night. If the war is to turn nuclear, US will most likely pre-empt and...

FYI: https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/aft...nst-icbm-china-warns-of-proceeding-carefully/

Chinese military official was really concerned about American capacity to BLUNT Chinese 2nd strike option with its GMD network. He didn't even bother to talk about BLUNTING 1st strike option. I have studied nuclear forces and doctrines of both countries and I understand where he is coming from. Go figure.

Coming back to main point:

If China does not get Taiwan then... concentrate on this. All should stick to this.

 

[phancong]

US didn't intervene in Ukraine, mate. Nope.

My point is that when it came down to exchanging blows, Russian defenses stood no chance against American forces - asymmetry factor.

Taiwan's situation is different as in US would want to leverage this card for potential Chinese concessions in regards to North Korea at some point.

Of-course, the prospects of American intervention in Taiwan are predisposed on how successive American governments perceive the One China dynamic. Trump administration does not accept this dynamic. Not sure what will be the situation in future.

Here is something; this newfound confidence in Taiwan is due to backing of Trump administration. Should this backing erode in the future, Taiwan's tone will change overnight.

US attacked Russian mercanary that fought for Syria government. Russia didn't commit the whole military force in Syria, Russia provide the military aids, military advicers along with air cover for the Syrian army operated out from the Russian military base in Syria. Russia military will be at the disadvantage when US engagement against Russian because US had the airforce base surrounded Syria, US fighters jets operate out from Isreal, turkey, irag will dominate Syrian sky. Depend on where the US confront the Russian the US superiority will win against the Russian.

 

[LeGenD]

Just a novice question, will Chinese missile will make a difference as I heard there were some 800 chinese missiles pointing to taiwan?

If the objective is to annex Taiwan by force then China needs boots on the ground.

Ballistic missiles can inflict damage but will not be sufficient to bend Taiwan on their own. Case in point; Iraq versus Iran (War of the Cities).

 

[Mav3rick]

@Mav3rick

FYI: https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/what-it-would-really-take-to-sink-a-modern-aircraft-car-1794182843

Easy for you to draw conclusions based on limited information, and a layer of disinformation. All you need is to understand things a bit on technical level.

As I pointed out earlier, Russian defenses utterly failed to stop American aggression against Syrian regime on April 14, 2018, and this was not due to restraint. Russian defenses in Syria were subjected to electronic warfare and American Arleigh Burke Class destroyers, Jets and submarines were patrolling the Mediterranian to make sure that Russian navy will not be in the position to disrupt American military operations from the seas.

I have had a serious discussion about American options to blunt Chinese strike options, and the relevant Chinese friend acknowledged what I had to say. I can dig up this discussion for you, just in case.

Now, very recently, Chinese leadership admitted inferiority to US in the matters if power-projection. They were being humble, but they also understand a lot beneath the surface.

China haven't attempted invading Taiwan in a long time and this is due to multitude of factors including Chinese shortcomings in the aspect of pulling off a major overseas expedition (invading a geographically distant foreign entity). People look at American capability in this regard, and mistakenly assume that this is easy. NOPE.

FYI: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/can-china-conquer-taiwan/

My point is that a potential war over Taiwan can turn unpredictable for China. US can transform Taiwan into a fortress of resistance and wreck Chinese naval forces in the Pacific - it does not need to strike at Chinese mainland, to achieve its objective to disrupt Chinese effort to subjugate Taiwan. This is the point.

My assessment haven't been wrong before, and Chinese leadership's views are in front of you as well. I find the 'I am deluded' remarks all the more amusing though.

Question is not about China's ability to defeat Taiwan in a war, but what US is willing to do about this.

And spare me 'nuclear war' mantra please - go and read about Chinese official nuclear doctrine first. Nuclear weapons are not firecrackers that will be unleashed over night. If the war is to turn nuclear, US will most likely pre-empt and...

FYI: https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/aft...nst-icbm-china-warns-of-proceeding-carefully/

Chinese military official was really concerned about American capacity to BLUNT Chinese 2nd strike option with its GMD network. He didn't even bother to talk about BLUNTING 1st strike option. I have studied nuclear forces and doctrines of both countries and I understand where he is coming from. Go figure.

Coming back to main point:

If China does not get Taiwan then... concentrate on this. All should stick to this.

Such a long post, just for my benefit? Nice.

As for the part about Russian defenses being unable to stop US attacks in Syria, don't you think there is a reason the US and Russian sides exchanged information on their zones of the conflict? Do you think the US forces would take on the latest S-300 systems and S-400 systems with ease and come out unfazed??

Besides, most of your argument is based on the assumption of a full fledged war between China and the US; such a war would be detrimental for China more than that to the US but post war, would the US still be a super power with massive hits to its military muscle and economy? Unless you believe that China would be incapable of inflicting any damage to the US in a full scale war.

And in 20 odd years, China would be in a stronger position to take on the US even militarily. The point of Chinese military is not projection of power far away but defense of the country. And Taiwan is too close to China which goes against outside support to Taiwan. My point is, China can run over Taiwan in a matter of days, with our without US support.

I noticed references to a lot of things in your post which I did not write, for example the Nuclear part, perhaps you confused my post with someone else's?

 

[phancong]

Such a long post, just for my benefit? Nice.

As for the part about Russian defenses being unable to stop US attacks in Syria, don't you think there is a reason the US and Russian sides exchanged information on their zones of the conflict? Do you think the US forces would take on the latest S-300 systems and S-400 systems with ease and come out unfazed??

Besides, most of your argument is based on the assumption of a full fledged war between China and the US; such a war would be detrimental for China more than that to the US but post war, would the US still be a super power with massive hits to its military muscle and economy? Unless you believe that China would be incapable of inflicting any damage to the US in a full scale war.

And in 20 odd years, China would be in a stronger position to take on the US even militarily. The point of Chinese military is not projection of power far away but defense of the country. And Taiwan is too close to China which goes against outside support to Taiwan. My point is, China can run over Taiwan in a matter of days, with our without US support.

I noticed references to a lot of things in your post which I did not write, for example the Nuclear part, perhaps you confused my post with someone else's?

Right now no war in Taiwan, so nobody ever know the outcome of any war between US and China. Everyone opinion based on the assumption of the unknown. No point to debate base on the speculation of one personal perspective. Cuz we all don't know the war plan for Taiwan war between China and US. The side that fight a war close to home always had the advantage even they are lesser of the military force between the two.

 

[gambit]

Again, I must insist on my point, the proximity of Taiwan to Chinese Mainland is the biggest advantage China has for surprise maneuvers, it would literally take China hours to encircle and establish Naval Blockade.

You can 'insist' all you want, but geography trumps you. Or more specifically -- the sea. China can encircle Taiwan only if Taiwan do nothing. Yours is a shallow point of view that proximity equals advantage. Battles on the water is nothing like on land.

On land, soldiers fight each other, but on the water, sailors do not fight each other, instead, they maintain ships or they fight thru ships. On land, soldiers can disperse and regroup but on the water, sailors cannot change ships on a whim. What this mean is that if the PLAN cannot encircle Taiwan, any invasion plan is moot.

Just a novice question, will Chinese missile will make a difference as I heard there were some 800 chinese missiles pointing to taiwan?

No, it does not. The eastern half of Taiwan is mountainous. Explosions, pressurized water, and electricity obeys the same rule -- seek the path of least resistance. For decades, the Taiwanese have planned their defense based upon the reality that artillery and surface-to-surface missiles effects are negated by uneven terrain.

http://nigelef.tripod.com/wt_of_fire.htm

However, very few targets are on football fields. 'Normal' open ground is 'rough', it has natural folds, small dips and hollows, furrows, ditches, bunds, etc. These all provide troops with protection from ground bursting weapons, not to mention direct fire projectiles. 'Natural' or 'average’ ground offers about 5 times as much protection to a prone soldier as an 'unnatural' level surface like a football field.

Even the desert is not uniform. In nature, a completely flat surface like that of a football field does not exist. This is why the PLA must achieve complete sea surface domination on the eastern side of Taiwan, something that the PLA leadership knows cannot be done if the US is involved, and will be time consuming to achieve if Taiwan is alone.

 

[LeGenD]

As for the part about Russian defenses being unable to stop US attacks in Syria, don't you think there is a reason the US and Russian sides exchanged information on their zones of the conflict? Do you think the US forces would take on the latest S-300 systems and S-400 systems with ease and come out unfazed??

US and Russia have a deconfliction arrangement in Syria for day-to-day activities since 2015, but Russian mission in Syria is to protect 'Assad regime' and defeat Syrian rebels on its behalf. Accordingly, Russia does not support US-led strikes on 'Assad regime' irrespective of their scale and intensity.

And no! NATO did not disclose its targets to Russia on the night of April 14, 2018 - just warned them that their strikes are coming. Russians could obviously notice military buildup of NATO towards this end. It came to my attention at a later stage that an EA-6B Prowler spearheaded US-led strikes on the night of April 14, 2018. The B1 Lancer bomber involved in these strikes also featured EW capabilities. Insider sources indicate that these aircraft were called upon to negate Russian defenses in the region.

Some details in this link: https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/how-the-u-s-led-airstrikes-hit-their-targets-in-syria-1.6000391

And;

Also, while the S-400 is advertised as having an anti-cruise missile capability, it is more geared toward ballistic missiles coming in from very high angles, very quickly, and other tactical aircraft," he said. "It's more geared toward those kinds of targets than subsonic, land-skimming missiles." - Justin Bronk

Besides, most of your argument is based on the assumption of a full fledged war between China and the US; such a war would be detrimental for China more than that to the US but post war, would the US still be a super power with massive hits to its military muscle and economy? Unless you believe that China would be incapable of inflicting any damage to the US in a full scale war.

You raised this point earlier:

Now, coming back to US's ability to wage conventional warfare, ofcourse the US has a supreme appetite for war......on other lands. However, would the US Government have support of the US public to wage war with China over Taiwan? I mean it would be a different thing to go to war with China if the US is attacked but to take on China over Taiwan and endangering US Cities and lives and properties of Americans, would the Government have public support? And would the US still go to war with China knowing fully well that the consequences would not be in favor of the US either? Let us assume that the US is able to impose crippling damages to China but what about damages that the Chinese would inevitably cause to the US Military and US Mainland?

And in 20 odd years, China would be in a stronger position to take on the US even militarily. The point of Chinese military is not projection of power far away but defense of the country. And Taiwan is too close to China which goes against outside support to Taiwan. My point is, China can run over Taiwan in a matter of days, with our without US support.

I noticed references to a lot of things in your post which I did not write, for example the Nuclear part, perhaps you confused my post with someone else's?

I understand all that, but US is not stagnant in its progress either. Rather China will have to exponentially increase its defense budget if it wish to catch up to US at some point in the future.

However, I disagree with the notion that American intervention will not change a dime. Take a good look at Taiwan's geography and military capability - it was not sitting idle all these years. Secondly, US can easily disrupt Chinese military operations with Electronic Warfare and other stuff for which China does not have counter.

It is easy to start a war but difficult to predict how it would proceed. ISPR conveyed this reality to India not long ago.

All of the above if the US decide to intervene. If US does not, then China have sufficient military muscle to take over Taiwan.