Barrack-Obummer
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Apr 10, 2012
- Messages
- 222
- Reaction score
- 0
I wanted to share an article I read and get your opinions on it.
This passage was in response to the article by a man named John j. Xenakis, journalist/ analysis. He believes there is no way Syrias conflict will develop into a huge civil war.
This is his analysis of the conflict in Syria:
"A number of commentators are saying that Syria is already in the grip of a sectarian conflict between the Alawites and the Sunni Muslims. Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is a member of the Alawite group which is considered to be an offshoot of Shia Muslim. Thus, Iran and Hezbollah are supporting al-Assad and the Alawites, and Saudi Arabia and Qatar are supporting the Sunnis.
Kofi Annan remarked on Thursday that he had met with al-Assad in Damascus nine days ago, and urged him to make a strategic decision to change his path. "Clearly, all parties must cease violence, but equally clearly, the first responsibility is with the government." However, since that meeting nine days ago, two massacres have occurred, and the violence has increased.
The pattern in both massacres was the same: The inhabitants of a Sunni village or hamlet is "softened up" by shelling by the Syrian regular army, and then the Alawite gangs of "Shabiha" criminals and thugs come in and go house to house, slaughtering the everyone, including women and children.
The BBC analyst that I heard on Thursday suggested that these massacres are being driven not by al-Assad but by the Alawite Shabih thugs. Arab Sunnis are 65% of the population of Syria, but they're being ruled by an Alawite minority, and they're sick and tired of being under the boot of the minority. So the Alawites are afraid of losing their privileged position if al-Assad is forced to step down, and so they're driving the massacres in the hope of creating enough confusion that al-Assad will be able to stay on. The Alawites are the real power now, according to this analyst, and they're the ones calling in army strikes and sending in thugs to slaughter Sunnis.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing in Syria is very similar to scenarios we've seen in Iraq and Thailand. Like Syria, Iraq and Thailand are in generational Awakening eras (like America in the 60s).
In Thailand, the fair-skinned "yellow shirt" Thai-Chinese élites were the ruling minority, while the vast majority of the population were the poor "red shirt" dark-skinned laborers. In Iraq under Saddam Hussein, the Sunni minority was ruling the Shia majority. What happened in both Thailand and Iraq was that the ruling minority used brutal tactics to keep the majority under control, but the majority reasserted itself. Furthermore, this was done without a crisis civil war -- crisis civil wars never occur in generational Awakening eras.
The same thing is now happening in Syria, with the Sunni majority reasserting itself against the Alawite minority. Many people, including Kofi Annan, are talking about a huge civil war in Syria, but that can't happen in a generational Awakening era. However, the problem always was and always will be that this is not just a conflict within Syria; it's a proxy conflict between Iran and other Shias versus Saudi Arabia and other Sunnis. And the inevitable danger is not for a civil war in Syria, but that this will be the trigger for a great Shia vs Sunni war engulfing the entire region. "
This is the main article on Syria
Killings suggest Syria already in the grip of sectarian conflict - The Irish Times - Fri, Jun 08, 2012
Feels like there's much more to Syria's conflict than meets the eye?
This passage was in response to the article by a man named John j. Xenakis, journalist/ analysis. He believes there is no way Syrias conflict will develop into a huge civil war.
This is his analysis of the conflict in Syria:
"A number of commentators are saying that Syria is already in the grip of a sectarian conflict between the Alawites and the Sunni Muslims. Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is a member of the Alawite group which is considered to be an offshoot of Shia Muslim. Thus, Iran and Hezbollah are supporting al-Assad and the Alawites, and Saudi Arabia and Qatar are supporting the Sunnis.
Kofi Annan remarked on Thursday that he had met with al-Assad in Damascus nine days ago, and urged him to make a strategic decision to change his path. "Clearly, all parties must cease violence, but equally clearly, the first responsibility is with the government." However, since that meeting nine days ago, two massacres have occurred, and the violence has increased.
The pattern in both massacres was the same: The inhabitants of a Sunni village or hamlet is "softened up" by shelling by the Syrian regular army, and then the Alawite gangs of "Shabiha" criminals and thugs come in and go house to house, slaughtering the everyone, including women and children.
The BBC analyst that I heard on Thursday suggested that these massacres are being driven not by al-Assad but by the Alawite Shabih thugs. Arab Sunnis are 65% of the population of Syria, but they're being ruled by an Alawite minority, and they're sick and tired of being under the boot of the minority. So the Alawites are afraid of losing their privileged position if al-Assad is forced to step down, and so they're driving the massacres in the hope of creating enough confusion that al-Assad will be able to stay on. The Alawites are the real power now, according to this analyst, and they're the ones calling in army strikes and sending in thugs to slaughter Sunnis.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing in Syria is very similar to scenarios we've seen in Iraq and Thailand. Like Syria, Iraq and Thailand are in generational Awakening eras (like America in the 60s).
In Thailand, the fair-skinned "yellow shirt" Thai-Chinese élites were the ruling minority, while the vast majority of the population were the poor "red shirt" dark-skinned laborers. In Iraq under Saddam Hussein, the Sunni minority was ruling the Shia majority. What happened in both Thailand and Iraq was that the ruling minority used brutal tactics to keep the majority under control, but the majority reasserted itself. Furthermore, this was done without a crisis civil war -- crisis civil wars never occur in generational Awakening eras.
The same thing is now happening in Syria, with the Sunni majority reasserting itself against the Alawite minority. Many people, including Kofi Annan, are talking about a huge civil war in Syria, but that can't happen in a generational Awakening era. However, the problem always was and always will be that this is not just a conflict within Syria; it's a proxy conflict between Iran and other Shias versus Saudi Arabia and other Sunnis. And the inevitable danger is not for a civil war in Syria, but that this will be the trigger for a great Shia vs Sunni war engulfing the entire region. "
This is the main article on Syria
Killings suggest Syria already in the grip of sectarian conflict - The Irish Times - Fri, Jun 08, 2012
Feels like there's much more to Syria's conflict than meets the eye?
