Stable gov and huge saving are the key for rapid economy growth

[Naofumi]

Without stable leadership(a strong gov), long-term planning is almost impossible. In western style democracy, short term election dominate domestic policy, which tends to spending the current money instead of saving and long-term investment.

In the opposite, China political system push economy growth by 5 years planning, now it's the end of the 13th 5 years planning since 1949. China gov makes plans for the next 5-30 years, no matter who is in charge.

Western countries looted every countries on earth in 19th century to achieve industrialization. That's how they gain their first pot of gold. Developing countries can only gain first pot of gold by saving unless you are rich oil countries. Western media just don't want people see the cold truth.

When we talk about saving, it means a lot of sacrifice. China sacrificed a lot in Chairman Mao's era to achieve industrialization. Not surprisingly, Chairman Mao was demonize by western media for decades and people buy it. Basically, no sacrifices no industrialization for developing countries.

China took loan from USSR and World Bank as well, but most of the investment come from ordinary people's saving. The same thing happened in Japan and South Korea, they really saved a lot in 1950s - 1990s.

If your gov can't sacrifice 1-2 generations and remain in charge, take a loan as first pot of gold.

If you don't want to take a loan, the whole nation and ordinary people must have the determination to sacrifice 1-2 generations for saving. Then you get the money to invest infrastructure, factories and R&D.

There is no other way around, my dear Pakistan friends.

The type of "Dictator" matters a lot, otherwise the world have seen a lot of Dictatorships turning into Oligarchies. The "meritocratic system" you vouch for have only worked in East Asia uptil now, in Muslim world and Africa, Dictators brought worse for their people, many of them being religious/ethnic fanatics. In the end, it also depends on how much one is interested in nation building which in turns depends upon the idea of nation of itself. East Asians being largely homogeneous in both ethnic and religious sense were more convinced of their nation and left no room for identity politics. But they too depended upon trial and hit for the dictator's benevolence - Mao's was a disaster, Deng was a miracle. Lastly, most of the East Asians have gradually evolved into liberal democracies themselves, leaving people to predict it to be the ultimate destination for the Chinese too.

 

[FuturePAF]

The huge personal saving of the Chinese people along with government’s tight lockdowns and targeted monetary lending to firms have helped China weather the Coronavirus better then most if not all other nations. Perhaps Singapore did better but probably also due to large personal savings.

 

[vi-va]

@vi-va

My dear friend,

Thankyou for the tag.

This is a subject very close to my heart as @ps3linux and I have been discussing it on-n-off... in the context of PakEconomy.

Savings are critically important for individual and enterprise... and State!

Otherwise, a Giant Debt Bubble becomes reality... as we have seen through the Liberalisation in the Financial sector in the West...which has created Biggest Buggle in HumanHistory...and the Fed/ECB/BoJ are pumping EQ and buying bonds from ZombieCompanies...transfering Wealth from Poor to Rich....ongoing process since, the 1980s...

Frankly, PBoC has also engaged in QEs in the last financial crisis...but instead of bailing out ZombieCorps PRC built massive 21st Century Infra... and now once again PBoC is monetising Debt and doing some turn-over of debt for businesses.... this needs to be managed...otherwise, too much liquidity in the System will eat out Productivity and Drive for Innovation!

On the subject of Stability... well, Equality is the Foundation of Stability... that can only happen from State Policies and Implementation of those policies.... the NeoLiberalism has stolen wealth of people and has created a 0.001% owning more than perhaps all humanity combined....

This is GlobalElite of Financialisation of Everything including HumanCommodity... Capitalism in the West is dead... in its true form... subjugated by CronyCapitalists... famously known as Socialism for the HyperRich. Stockmarkets going up and up as the CentralBank buy dead-assets and 0% policy rates... while more than 40 million in America are jobless... total Disconnect with RealEconomy!!!

I have advocated here on PDF that PakState deeply study the ChineseModel ... and its not just about SEZs or FDI... it is about Analysis, Planning and Execution through FiveYearPlan... and a deep sense of HistoricMission...which we lack in Pakistan.

Hence, we can clearly see that Qoutient of Stability and EconomicDevelopment in China vs Pakistan.

Savings needs Protection..which only happens from Stability of the System provided by the State!

The illusion of 'Left' or 'Right' in the LiberalDemocracies is that...an illusion... where people are chasing Shiny objects... while the HyperRich have amassed so much control over the GlobalResources and Capital.

What we are seeing now is the Struggle between two Economic/Financial Systems... Chinese vs. NeoLiberal.

Sadly, without any savings the average citizen in the West is totally on his/her own or gov handouts... and whence working... have to pay too much tax so that the governments can repay interests on massive loans... again... feeding the HyperRich...

Paks like to get excited about CPEC... but its not a magic bullet... unless we deeply study the ChineseModel and implement that Model in Pakistan.

More on it some other time...

Mangus

As always, @Mangus Ortus Novem your comments worth reading twice!

 

[Naofumi]

@vi-va It would be interesting to see if China can export their model to it's allies. I personally think it's unlikely given the different conditions like non-homogeneity, religious fanaticism or landlordship/zamindari/caste structures etc.
Counter question : How much do you think the above factors played in favor of East Asians?

 

[Indus Pakistan]

It would be interesting to see if China can export their model to it's allies. I personally think it's unlikely given the different conditions like non-homogeneity, religious fanaticism or landlordship/zamindari/caste structures etc.

The Chinese model will not work in Pakistan because religious fanaticism and primitive social structures prevent this model from working in Pakistan. These regressive forces are way to entrenched. Only a full scale PLA invasion and five years of "cultural revolution" would prepare Pakistan for stage to move to being a first world developed country.

Until then there is only two solution for Pakistani's to do well ~

• gain access to the power elite, military, religious, administrative, judicial, industry or economy with positions being very limited.
• jump on a boat and become a illegal migrant to land of sin and no religion. The west. Once there indulge in a comfortable life and then start lecturing others about Islam.
  

 

[tower9]

I agree but disagree with your premise that Mao was a good governor. He was never stable, he was very unstable, precisely because all he knew was revolution. His governance was a complete disaster.

 

[beijingwalker]

CPC faithful to its founding mission: Foreign experts

 

[vi-va]

@vi-va It would be interesting to see if China can export their model to it's allies. I personally think it's unlikely given the different conditions like non-homogeneity, religious fanaticism or landlordship/zamindari/caste structures etc.
Counter question : How much do you think the above factors played in favor of East Asians?

Similarity:
Japan, South Korea, China mainland, Taiwan, Vietnam are more or less the same. Meritocracy traditions, hardworking, huge saving, export driven, top down economy.

Difference:
1, Economy, China mainland/Vietnam State Owned Enterprise. Japan/Korea Family Owned Enterprise ->backed Huge banks -> back by State. Taiwan mixed.
2, Politics, China/Vietnam Socialism with Chinese characters. Japan/Korea Capitalism with one man one vote. But the elites always managed to work around the mass, dictate the politics and economy. The one man one vote just a show for the liberals. Taiwan, similar to China before 1990s, transferred to Japan/Korea model after 1990s. Not very successful transformation.

Culture:
Similarity, Confucian tradition.
Difference, hard to elaborate here.

 

[Naofumi]

In Japan/Korea case wasn't it the state/government itself who encouraged/subsidized/monitored zaibatsu/chaebols during Mieji era and Han river miracle era respectively? Now, Alibaba, Huawei, Baidu et al are more or less same, no?

Not very successful transformation.

Why you say so?

Difference, hard to elaborate here.

Chinese came a little too far from traditions while Japanese/Koreans didn't? Much like this? (Pop culture knowledge, pardon me if offensive/incorrect)

You didn't answered the original question though, can the model be exported?

 

[Indos]

Similarity:
Japan, South Korea, China mainland, Taiwan, Vietnam are more or less the same. Meritocracy traditions, hardworking, huge saving, export driven, top down economy.

Difference:
1, Economy, China mainland/Vietnam State Owned Enterprise. Japan/Korea Family Owned Enterprise ->backed Huge banks -> back by State. Taiwan mixed.
2, Politics, China/Vietnam Socialism with Chinese characters. Japan/Korea Capitalism with one man one vote. But the elites always managed to work around the mass, dictate the politics and economy. The one man one vote just a show for the liberals. Taiwan, similar to China before 1990s, transferred to Japan/Korea model after 1990s. Not very successful transformation.

Culture:
Similarity, Confucian tradition.
Difference, hard to elaborate here.

There is no Japanese here, but at least there is Korean. We need to have his opinion whether Confucian tradition is strong in South Korea society @SgtGungHo

 

[313ghazi]

Democracy is a dangerous and damaging facade of a political system. It has failed in our country. We need to adapt a system of governance which works for us. It needs long term planning, a fixed set of values that we adhere too and strong leadership.

In my opinion the only set of values that we can build a system around is Shariah. We are a conservative Islamic society on the whole and the vast majority of our culture/values are aligned with Shariah. You can't please everyone - but this is the model that will work for the majority.

We need to appoint leaders on merit, we need those leaders to have the powers required to make changes and the ability to change those leaders or challenge their decisions through the courts should be an exceptional process not the anchor that it is today.

 

[Naofumi]

There is no Japanese here, but at least there is Korean. We need to have his opinion whether Confucian tradition is strong in South Korea society @SgtGungHo

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinocentrism#Korea

 

[Indus Pakistan]

In my opinion the only set of values that we can build a system around is Shariah. We are a conservative Islamic society on the whole and the vast majority of our culture/values are aligned with Shariah. You can't please everyone - but this is the model that will work for the majority.

Read my post #51 copy pasted below. Who does the red part apply to?

"The Chinese model will not work in Pakistan because religious fanaticism and primitive social structures prevent this model from working in Pakistan. These regressive forces are way to entrenched. Only a full scale PLA invasion and five years of "cultural revolution" would prepare Pakistan for stage to move to being a first world developed country.

Until then there is only two solution for Pakistani's to do well ~

• gain access to the power elite, military, religious, administrative, judicial, industry or economy with positions being very limited.
• jump on a boat and become a illegal migrant to land of sin and no religion. The west. Once there indulge in a comfortable life and then start lecturing others about Islam."

 

[vi-va]

In Japan/Korea case wasn't it the state/government itself who encouraged/subsidized/monitored zaibatsu/chaebols during Mieji era and Han river miracle era respectively? Now, Alibaba, Huawei, Baidu et al are more or less same, no?

Why you say so?

Chinese came a little too far from traditions while Japanese/Koreans didn't? Much like this? (Pop culture knowledge, pardon me if offensive/incorrect)
View attachment 646049

You didn't answered the original question though, can the model be exported?

I don't think so. If any different society try to copy others', it will fall.

1. US model can export to European countries, because culturally they are close.
2. Those European countries need NATO to protect their national security, and IMF/Worldbank to finance the transformation.
3. Don't forget East European countries are demo for Post Soviet countries, so west Europe and America didn't do everything they can to loot them during the transformation.
4. With all the above criteria, culturally, finance, security guaranteed, most east European countries not succeed actually. East European countries are dump ground of west EU countries' industrial product, and human resource pool nowadays.
5. Arab Spring (Winter), no need to elaborate. Completely failure by design.

Is there any model can be exported? Do we have successful case study in human history?

There is no model can be export, only can be learnt. Countries learn from others' failure, success, that's about it.

 

[beijingwalker]

Chinese came a little too far from traditions while Japanese/Koreans didn't?

We all know Japan and south Korea are US puppets and need to do US biddings , don't we?