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Solution to Sino-India logjam

Bussard Ramjet

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Hello Everyone!

As is clearly evident, India and China have a really antagonistic relationship with each other, each suspicious about the other. This --- in my opinion --- is an aberration in our centuries old relationship, and is detrimental to both of us. We have no reason to be so antagonistic to each other for a number of reasons which I will detail in this post. Hence I would like in this post for both Indian and Chinese members to engage in a constructive debate and come to a mutually beneficial solution.

Why India and China are NOT natural geopolitical enemies:

1. They are on different continents.
Yes, China and India are almost literally on different continents.
How?
I have always wondered as a kid why Europe is categorized as a continent when it has huge land connections to Asia. It is separated by the ural ranges to Asia, so why shouldn't Himalayas, mountain ranges much more taller and impregnable also constitute a boundary. The answer:
The division of continents is largely a western concept according to their needs and wishes. They categorised westerners, the white guys with similar culture as Europeans, the blacks as Africans, the rest as Asians. Why else do you wonder, Russia is still categorized as European. It is a western construct. The 'new world' further brought about the Americas and Oceania.
Hence, if you talk about connectivity as the defining feature for the classification of continents, Himalayas, due to their magnitude literally divided India and China. There were few exchanges between us, our worlds rarely met and we lived in totally different spheres, dominating each of ours.
asia_southern_pol_1994.jpg


The whole history of India (the heart of which rests in northern India) has our interactions primarily with Persians, Arabs, Afghans etc. Similarly, for China it has been Japan, Mongols, Vietnamese etc. So the strategic direction of both of our countries is different. We have almost always faced west, controlled our littoral, and tried playing with the middle east (which brought in Islam), while China has looked East and South-East. You can just look at histories to tell about everything.

2. Lack of irreconcilable differences, and historical baggage

Every country has its own mind, its own consciousness. Indians in general don't have too intense feelings about China. Most of the negative comments about China come due to its support for Pakistan, and most in China come due to support for Tibetans. There are border disputes as well, but nothing like what Pakistan/India or China/Japan/Korea have.

3. Similarity in concerns and spirituality
At a deeper level, we are both quite similar. We both follow Dharmic religions, largely want peace, are facing Islamic terrorism, and want our past glory to be restored.


Challenges faced today: (Differences)

Indian complaints:
1. Relationship with Pakistan
The most important difference and source of friction.
2. Relationship with other countries in Indian vicinity that is used as leverage against India by both China and those countries. Case in hand - SriLanka, String of Pearls
3. Border Problem
4. Territorial Problem with Arunachal and Aksai
5. Support for North-Eastern Rebels
6. Damming of rivers in Tibet, fears regarding that, and general fears regarding Tibet.

China:
1. Active support and existence of Tibet Government-in-Exile in Dharamshala.
2. Claims and Stance on Tibet.
3. Border and Territorial Issues.
4. Threat of disruption of supply routes in Indian Ocean
5. Indian unwillingness for China to enter the region
6. Perceived support for containment of China

I have done a lot of research on this topic which is very dear to my heart. I have read a lot about Sino-Indian relations, the 62 war etc. I perceive it to be a case of misfortunes, misunderstandings and tragedies. I seriously want these two ancient civilizations to come together and make a strategic alliance to deter the west.

What is my proposal?

Broadly it is the division of strategic spheres between major countries in BRIC to make it a formal grouping of developed countries who have been excluded in the formation of international rules.

Firstly, specifically these things are needed to be done:
1. China needs to give up Pakistan completely and totally. That will be painful as it is a big strategic ally, where support for China is across the whole spectrum of country. India in return will have to give up totally and utterly the whole Tibetan thing. Remove Dalai Lama and his government publicly, stop support to Tibet, persecute anyone who have refugee status right now, and explain the general public that they have been lied to, and that Tibet has always been under Chinese influence. Both of the actions are irreversible.

2. China needs to give up Arunachal (Southern Tibet) and India needs to give up Aksai Chin. The rest of the border won't be that much a big deal.

3. BRIC will be strengthened as a grouping with shared interests to create a multi-polar acceptable world with recognized spheres of influence.



So basically, India will have the whole of SAARC, Iran, IOR littoral seas (only upto a certain limit, not whole IOR) and a decent level of Arabia.
China gets, South East Asia ( myanmar, thailand, vietnam), Philippines, Mongolia, Japan and Korea.
Russia gets Kazakhstan, western Europe (Excluding Poland, czech republic, austria and balkans), Black Sea, Arctic, Caspian and their littorals.
Brazil gets South America.

We all can then jointly push against western hegemony, and their interference in our region.

4. Each of the BRIC countries will guarantee the other country free passage for trade in its own sphere of influence.

Additional Note:
I think it would also be preferable to exchange Andaman and Nicobar, for Kailash Mansarovar region and Dumbi Valley, largely because a lot of irredentism toward Tibet comes due to those, which are the biggest Hindu spots. This will be beneficial to both the countries.

For India it will take away the biggest 2 headaches of the proximity of Chinese forces to northern plains especially Delhi, and the vulnerability of the Siliguri corridor. It will also give us access to the Tibetan Plateau.

For China, Andaman will give them valuable way to handle South-east asia, and protect their trade routes. Also, it will help convince Indians by taking the only emotional attachment they have to Tibet, by separating the issue of Kailash from Tibet.

It will be a good bet for both countries. Also, in this exchange India will not give Andaman's EEZ to China, which will make the size of andaman and nicobar + territorial waters less than the area from uttrakhand till kailash and dumbi valley.


What thoughts do you guys have?
 
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5. Support for North-Eastern Rebels
We don't support your rebels, even India doesn't think we do.

Firstly, specifically these things are needed to be done:
1. China needs to give up Pakistan completely and totally. That will be painful as it is a big strategic ally, where support for China is across the whole spectrum of country. India in return will have to give up totally and utterly the whole Tibetan thing. Remove Dalai Lama and his government publicly, stop support to Tibet, persecute anyone who have refugee status right now, and explain the general public that they have been lied to, and that Tibet has always been under Chinese influence. Both of the actions are irreversible.

First dropping a country as an ally is insane, nobody would do it. Second, mature countries don't need that, we never asked India to stop going for Vietnam, or America to cease alliance with Asian countries.

Second, Tibet is ours regardless of the Lama or Indian recognition, and aside from the fact you already recognize it, even if you don't it'll have no effect. That's like saying if China doesn't think Gao is part of India it wouldn't be.

So essentially, you are suggesting we do something that would severely harm not only our interests, reputation, for pretty much nothing.


2. China needs to give up Arunachal (Southern Tibet) and India needs to give up Aksai Chin. The rest of the border won't be that much a big deal.

I can get behind this and probably will happen.

3. BRIC will be strengthened as a grouping with shared interests to create a multi-polar acceptable world with recognized spheres of influence.

Also acceptable and on our way to do so.

So basically, India will have the whole of SAARC, Iran, IOR littoral seas (only upto a certain limit, not whole IOR) and a decent level of Arabia.
China gets, South East Asia ( myanmar, thailand, vietnam), Philippines, Mongolia, Japan and Korea.
Russia gets Kazakhstan, western Europe (Excluding Poland, czech republic, austria and balkans), Black Sea, Arctic, Caspian and their littorals.
Brazil gets South America.

These are all sovereign countries dude, you can't just divide them up like the old imperials. The days of sphere of influence is over, get with the program, it's the globalization era.

China will do business as it suits us, and India must do the same.

4. Each of the BRIC countries will guarantee the other country free passage for trade in its own sphere of influence.

Again, it's essentially guaranteed already, who dares to disrupt global trade, the answer is not even America.

Additional Note:
I think it would also be preferable to exchange Andaman and Nicobar, for Kailash Mansarovar region and Dumbi Valley, largely because a lot of irredentism toward Tibet comes due to those, which are the biggest Hindu spots. This will be beneficial to both the countries.

For India it will take away the biggest 2 headaches of the proximity of Chinese forces to northern plains especially Delhi, and the vulnerability of the Siliguri corridor. It will also give us access to the Tibetan Plateau.

For China, Andaman will give them valuable way to handle South-east asia, and protect their trade routes. Also, it will help convince Indians by taking the only emotional attachment they have to Tibet, by separating the issue of Kailash from Tibet.

It will be a good bet for both countries. Also, in this exchange India will not give Andaman's EEZ to China, which will make the size of andaman and nicobar + territorial waters less than the area from uttrakhand till kailash and dumbi valley.


What thoughts do you guys have?

I neither object nor support this, as I don't think it's a big deal either way.
 
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OP is having a wishful thinking moment.

First of all, no country would stop any relation to another country just because they want to make up with another one.

Then how do you supposed a land swap? Just relingish control of a bit of land? What about the citizens , the people within those region? Its not just granting them passport that simple?
 
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2. China needs to give up Arunachal (Southern Tibet) and India needs to give up Aksai Chin. The rest of the border won't be that much a big deal.

Zhou Enlai already offered a mutual swap of recognition between AP and Aksai Chin, back in 1960.

Guess what happened?

India rejected all negotiations, then started the military Forward Policy, which led to the 1962 War.

BBC News - India climbdown may help China border dispute

By Subir Bhaumik
Itanagar, Arunachal Pradesh
17 April 2012

India has been reluctant to part with any portion of the disputed territory since the 1950s.

It rejected a swap offer made by China's former Prime Minister Zhou Enlai in 1960, asking India to recognise China's control of Aksai Chin in the west as a quid pro quo for China's recognition of the McMahon line.

After rejecting that offer, India initiated a "forward policy" to control the disputed territories in the Himalayas.

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1. China needs to give up Pakistan completely and totally. That will be painful as it is a big strategic ally, where support for China is across the whole spectrum of country. India in return will have to give up totally and utterly the whole Tibetan thing. Remove Dalai Lama and his government publicly, stop support to Tibet, persecute anyone who have refugee status right now, and explain the general public that they have been lied to, and that Tibet has always been under Chinese influence. Both of the actions are irreversible.

are you seriously comparing Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation state of 200 million ppl, with Tibet, an Autonomous Region (Province) which China has full control of? this 'trade off' doesn't make any sense.
you overestimated Dalai and his government's influence. they simply do not worth that much. Once the current Dalai dies from old age we'll immediately have a new one in Tibet who is loyal to Beijing.
and as China's interest goes global, the importance of China-Pakistan relationship will only grow. besides i doubt India has the capability to stop 'the entire Tibet thing' since the Western support is also involved.
 
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are you seriously comparing Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation state of 200 million ppl, with Tibet, an Autonomous Region (Province) which China has full control of? this 'trade off' doesn't make any sense.
you overestimated Dalai and his government's influence. they simply do not worth that much. Once the current Dalai dies from old age we'll immediately have a new one in Tibet who is loyal to Beijing.
and as China's interest goes global, the importance of China-Pakistan relationship will only grow. besides i doubt India has the capability to stop 'the entire Tibet thing' since the Western support is also involved.

The Dalai Lama already admitted that Tibet is a part of China, around a decade ago.

His position now is that he wants "more autonomy" for Tibet.

So their Dalai Lama card is now worthless, since the Dalai Lama, as well as the American and Indian governments (and all other governments in the world) already recognize Tibet as a part of China.

No government in the entire world recognizes Tibet as an independent country. Not a single one.
 
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China still a nuclear arm state, not India and US military alliance can dream of taken Tibet from China without total nuclear war escalation.
 
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The Dalai Lama already admitted that Tibet is a part of China, around a decade ago.

His position now is that he wants "more autonomy" for Tibet.

So their Dalai Lama card is now worthless, since the Dalai Lama, as well as the American and Indian governments (and all other governments in the world) already recognize Tibet as a part of China.

No government in the entire world recognizes Tibet as an independent country. Not a single one.

exactly. he is not even that much of a problem now.
I'm a socialist and Marxist, says the Dalai Lama during his Mumbai visit | Latest News & Updates at Daily News & Analysis
 
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China still a nuclear arm state, not India and US military alliance can dream of taken Tibet from China without total nuclear war escalation.
and what makes you think that India and the US want to 'take TIbet' from China ? :lol:
 
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Zhou Enlai already offered a mutual swap of recognition between AP and Aksai Chin, back in 1960.

Guess what happened?

India rejected all negotiations, then started the military Forward Policy, which led to the 1962 War.

BBC News - India climbdown may help China border dispute

By Subir Bhaumik
Itanagar, Arunachal Pradesh
17 April 2012

India has been reluctant to part with any portion of the disputed territory since the 1950s.

It rejected a swap offer made by China's former Prime Minister Zhou Enlai in 1960, asking India to recognise China's control of Aksai Chin in the west as a quid pro quo for China's recognition of the McMahon line.

After rejecting that offer, India initiated a "forward policy" to control the disputed territories in the Himalayas.

--------------

We could go on an infinite loop of circular debates about what happened (and did not happen) in the last century. That's not going to solve a thing.Both sides misjudged, miscalculated; probably more from our side. Let's end it at that.

However that being said, I do think the landmark decision by China in 2003(?) of formally recognizing Sikkim as part of India was a golden opportunity we missed (We as in India). My understanding is that over and above the overt implications of that move, The chinese were also testing the possibility of settling the larger border dispute with India, and possibly even towards a closer strategic relationship with India.

I doubt such an opportunity will come again this century, barring an unexpected event.
 
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and what makes you think that India and the US want to 'take TIbet' from China ? :lol:





My post respond to the op mention about India support Dalai Lama position on Tibet, my guess India to ally with the US there will be a higher chance India will conspire with US to invade China to take Tibet.
 
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I doubt such an opportunity will come again this century, barring an unexpected event.

You're right, it seems extremely unlikely.

The best chance was in 1960, when China was at the weakest point in our history. At that time we were right in the middle of our worst ever famine (Great leap forward), as well as being surrounded by two enemy superpowers. Having fought directly against the US + 16 of her allies during the Korean War, and in the middle of the Sino-Soviet split with the USSR.

That was the point where we were willing to make more territorial compromises, due to our extremely weak position, both internally and externally. Zhou Enlai's offer was borne out of the sheer desperation of those times.

But today, China is no longer in a desperate situation. Hell our currency reserves alone are around $4 trillion, as much as the rest of the world combined.

The chance was missed, but I don't believe India was ever really interested in any sort of compromise with either AP or Aksai Chin, so I guess nothing was lost.
 
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My post respond to the op mention about India support Dalai Lama position on Tibet, my guess India to ally with the US there will be a higher chance India will conspire with US to invade China to take Tibet.
The Dalai Lama is a highly revered spiritual leader and is accorded the respect he deserves. Politically he has no clout and 0 say in India's foreign affairs.

There is no chance in hell that India will ever 'conspire with the US to invade China and take Tibet' ..that's just crazy talk.
 
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