Let's sort things out before you reach that conclusion.
The list and graph you posted sorted participants by the mean science score, which represents just one out of the three measures. That is not representative of general performance.
The list below ranks the top 22 participating nations by combined score (the mean score of math, reading, and science) from highest to lowest (credits to Anatoly Karlin). I have omitted the IQ column as I want to limit this to a PISA discussion.
You can find
Hong Kong (China) at
2,
Macao (China) at
4,
Chinese Taipei at
7,
B-S-J-G (China) at
10, and
Vietnam at
22. I will also highlight
Germany at
13, as it may be of personal interest to you.
Vietnam is not "a bit ahead of the Chinese", it's quite behind.
Country Math Reading Science Combined
1 Singapore 564 535 556 551.7
2 Hong Kong (China) 548 527 523 532.7
3 Japan 532 516 538 528.7
4 Macao (China) 544 509 529 527.3
5 Estonia 520 519 534 524.3
6 Canada 516 527 528 523.7
7 Chinese Taipei 542 497 532 523.7
8 Finland 511 526 531 522.7
9 Korea 524 517 516 519.0
10 B-S-J-G (China) 531 494 518 514.3
11 Ireland 504 521 503 509.3
12 Slovenia 510 505 513 509.3
13 Germany 506 509 509 508.0
14 Netherlands 512 503 509 508.0
15 Switzerland 521 492 506 506.3
16 New Zealand 495 509 513 505.7
17 Denmark 511 500 502 504.3
18 Norway 502 513 498 504.3
19 Poland 504 506 501 503.7
20 Belgium 507 499 502 502.7
21 Australia 494 503 510 502.3
22 Viet Nam 495 487 525 502.3
Here is another chart (
below). Examine the "
Average three-year trend". In mathematics, Vietnam declined 17 points since PISA 2012. That is not an improvement, that is the single worst decline across all nations in the category. In reading, Vietnam declined by 21 points since 2012, where it is tied for worst with Tunisia. When I saw this trend, I was in fact surprised, you usually don't see such a drastic decline. Vietnam was the only country in the high performing group to exhibit this trend, in fact it was one of the few countries in the whole list to be affected so.
Now we will examine something very key. In the same chart above, analyze the column "
Share of top performers in at at least one subject (Level 5 or 6)".
This is a measure of the percentage of students that are performing at the top level in at least one subject.
I'll leave the the numbers below for convenience (higher is better).
Chinese Taipei: 29.9%
Hong Kong: 29.3%
B-S-J-G: 27.7%
Macao: 23.9%
OECD average: 15.3%
Vietnam: 12%
Vietnam is below the OECD average and severely underperforms China at the highest ranks of achievement. If you look closely, Vietnam
is an anomaly in how poorly it does at the very top levels of attainment,
relative to its high mean scores. Compare other top performers to Vietnam on the actual chart, and you will see that the difference in the proportion of high achievers is very evident. If I listed Singapore, it would be a slaughter.
The following shows another anomalous metric from Vietnam from the same chart.
Share of low achievers in all three subjects (below level 2)
Macao: 3.5%
Vietnam: 4.5%
Hong Kong: 4.5%
Chinese Taipei: 8.3%
B-S-J-G: 10.9%
OECD average: 13%
Vietnam, with a GDP per capita lower than the Philippines, has less than half the percentage of under achievers than even the 4 richest Mainland Chinese regions sampled (B-S-J-G). It matches Hong Kong, a city with one of the highest levels of human development in Asia, and
out of all the countries and economies listed, the only place with a lower proportion of underachieving students than Vietnam was Macao (an extremely small city with a population of 566,375)
. Vietnam beat out all other highly advanced OECD economies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore. That is actually unbelievable.
That's a very sudden reversal from the previous metric measuring the proportion of high performers. Basically, Vietnam has few high performers, and few low performers given its relatively high mean scores. Maybe, they have a very high base, and a very low ceiling? Low S.D.?
Here's the real answer: Pay attention to the "
Percentage of 15-year-olds not covered by the PISA sample" column in the chart below.
This is a measure of the percentage of eligible students who could not be sampled through PISA testing.
Note that 51% of the Vietnamese students are not represented, in other words that is 49% coverage. Vietnam had the lowest participation of all the countries and economies listed in PISA snapshot. Mexico, the next worse, is missing 38% of its students, which at 62% coverage is still far higher than what we find in Vietnam.
By comparison, Hong Kong (China) had 89% coverage, Macao (China) 88%, and B-S-J-G (China) 64%. In my opinion, B-S-J-G is already at the very edge of what I find acceptable, and Vietnam went even further.
The sample is so skewed that I don't think it is a coincidence. Vietnam cherry picked the highest performing schools, districts, and areas for PISA testing, and excluded the lowest performers. This puts the low participation into perspective. This explains how it achieved such an impressive metric of having only 4.5% under achievers, handily beating every developed nation and city besides Hong Kong and Macao. These are highly developed economies with comprehensive welfare systems and little to no extreme poverty.
The obvious argument is that the Vietnamese are smarter than everyone else. Looking at the numbers, that doesn't hold any water. If they are smarter than the Koreans, Japanese, and Chinese, then why is their share of top achievers so low? Why aren't there more people at the right hand side of the bell curve?
If you look at Taiwan and Hong Kong, they are at nearly twice the OECD average in terms of high achievers, and Singapore is well above that. To give some perspective, 27.7% of the students tested in China were high achievers, in Vietnam, that proportion is less than half that, at 12%. The OECD average is 15%.
To summarize, the Vietnamese results are so cooked that even I was shocked as I pored over the metrics. And let's be fair, they aren't the only ones who do it. Many PISA results are goal-seeked, and every time PISA is held, a ton of results are thrown out. But always, we must be diligent about how numbers are arrived at.
Edit: Didn't see
@Shotgunner51 's handy chart, but the the current one will have to do.