Saudi Arabia's troubled economy could bring down ruling House of Saud

[waleed3601]

The reason you are forgetting is to do with people's expectation. Pakistanis have always been poor so the state survives since people do not revolt even if economy is a bit tight. Saudis are used to luxury and enormous subsidies. And their political system is dependent on a tacit tribal agreement under which there would be no taxation in return for no political representation of the people. If they tax people now, the people will want to have political representation which means the fall of house of Saud.

hmmm you raised a very good and valid point. i modify my view on the matter now because your thoughts also make much sense, but i guess only time will tell whether or not the house of saud falls, and how at that, if it does.

 

[Jamaal Yelmaaz]

Foreign-exchange reserves:

Saudi Arabia - 635,535 mln
Iran - 109,000 mln

Net debt as % of GDP:

Saudi Arabia - surplus 52.725%
Iran - 1.214 %

Foreign-exchange reserves per capita:

Saudi Arabia - 20,634 $
Iran - 1,401 $

GDP per capita:

Saudi Arabia - 20,139 $
Iran - 5,048 $

Inflation rate (2014):

Saudi Arabia - 2.7%
Iran - 17.2%

All these figures are correct but no so big problem for Iran.... i dont think Saudis more advantegous compare to Mollahs....because Mollah regime can force people to starving But Saudis cant....Mollahs can rule Iranians like Kim Jong but Saudis cant...

 

[Falcon29]

The reason you are forgetting is to do with people's expectation. Pakistanis have always been poor so the state survives since people do not revolt even if economy is a bit tight. Saudis are used to luxury and enormous subsidies. And their political system is dependent on a tacit tribal agreement under which there would be no taxation in return for no political representation of the people. If they tax people now, the people will want to have political representation which means the fall of house of Saud.

Let's assume royal family 'falls'. Then we either get chaos or Sunni majority democracy. So why are you concerned?

 

[Daneshmand]

Let's assume royal family 'falls'. Then we either get chaos or Sunni majority democracy. So why are you concerned?

We are not concerned about anything. We could care less. Iran's foreign policy objective has only one singular goal: reducing American influence in the region. Whatever replaces the house of Saud will be detrimental to American influence in the region to the benefit of Iran. Since Saudis have been such excellent puppets for United States. Their fall will be in line with Iran's long term objectives.

 

[bozorgmehr]

Let's assume royal family 'falls'. Then we either get chaos or Sunni majority democracy. So why are you concerned?

I would welcome a Sunni majority democracy any day, as long as by that you are not implying JAN, Ahrar ashsham, AQ, Daesh or similar government styles.

That's not to say that I believe everything will rosewater and pastry the next day. But a political entity premised on the will and well-being of its constituent members will ultimately function in an infinitely more rational manner than a system that is not. Against that backdrop, it would make no sense to continue with petty and costly enmities, when a lot more can be gained from cooperation.

But that would require a rational mindset which as rare in the popular Muslim culture as water is in the Sahara....

 

[Falcon29]

We are not concerned about anything. We could care less. Iran's foreign policy objective has only one singular goal: reducing American influence in the region.

Sigh. No, Iran's foreign policy objective is to dominate the Arab states and their resources. Btw, you contradict yourself, in other threads you're saying US/West is pushing towards Iran and Iran will be police state for it.

Whatever replaces the house of Saud will be detrimental to American influence in the region to the benefit of Iran.

You are making assumptions on whether it will benefit Iran or not. As soon as 'house of Saud' falls Iran will incite Shia's to conquer Saudi Arabia for it's oil resources. And immediately afterwards Saudi's will begin counter insurgency. Iran will then claim it's fighting ISIS in hopes West will support its efforts. This is the reason you and other Iranians mention 'House of Saud' all the time, it has little to do with the government.

Anyways good luck with the religious war you're about to spark.

I would welcome a Sunni majority democracy any day, as long as by that you are not implying JAN, Ahrar ashsham, AQ, Daesh or similar government styles.

That's not to say that I believe everything will rosewater and pastry the next day. But a political entity premised on the will and well-being of its constituent members will ultimately function in an infinitely more rational manner than a system that is not. Against that backdrop, it would make no sense to continue with petty and costly enmities, when a lot more can be gained from cooperation.

But that would require a rational mindset which as rare in the popular Muslim culture as water is in the Sahara....

What you believe or don't believe is irrelevant. Why are you so concerned with what administration Saudi's may choose? Worry about your government at home. Of course, if Sunni majority democracy arises you won't be content with it. You want minority Shia's to take control of the country so you can exploit the wealth of the country. Just like Iran is doing in Iraq. It buys sellout Iraqi Shia clerics, encourages them to mass brainwash the population through religious activity. Then makes money out of the dirty game.

There's a reason these clerics tell the people not to seek much and just 'thank God'. Basically telling them to put all their hope in God as a way to distract them from the corruption. So if this about rationality for you, you would also oppose Iranian government with same fervor.

 

[Daneshmand]

Sigh. No, Iran's foreign policy objective is to dominate the Arab states and their resources. Btw, you contradict yourself, in other threads you're saying US/West is pushing towards Iran and Iran will be police state for it.



You are making assumptions on whether it will benefit Iran or not. As soon as 'house of Saud' falls Iran will incite Shia's to conquer Saudi Arabia for it's oil resources. And immediately afterwards Saudi's will begin counter insurgency. Iran will then claim it's fighting ISIS in hopes West will support its efforts. This is the reason you and other Iranians mention 'House of Saud' all the time, it has little to do with the government.

Anyways good luck with the religious war you're about to spark.

I never said that. You are outright lying here. What I had said was, West is getting tired of supporting Saudis since the Saudis are creating more problem instead of propagating the Western influence because of extreme Saudi incompetence. Saudis promised West to bring down Assad government using their proxies, and now the West is paying the price in its cities.

The West is getting tired of middle east and wants to disengage leaving the region since it has bigger worries else where for example in Eastern Europe with Russia and in East Asia with China. Iran is in independent state unlike the vassal state of Saudi Arabia and with changing geopolitical objectives of the West in middle east, Iran will be the one benefiting from the void created by Western disengagement. Iran has been investing in this for decades now. Time has come to cash the investment with interest.

 

[bozorgmehr]

Sigh. No, Iran's foreign policy objective is to dominate the Arab states and their resources. Btw, you contradict yourself, in other threads you're saying US/West is pushing towards Iran and Iran will be police state for it.



You are making assumptions on whether it will benefit Iran or not. As soon as 'house of Saud' falls Iran will incite Shia's to conquer Saudi Arabia for it's oil resources. And immediately afterwards Saudi's will begin counter insurgency. Iran will then claim it's fighting ISIS in hopes West will support its efforts. This is the reason you and other Iranians mention 'House of Saud' all the time, it has little to do with the government.

Anyways good luck with the religious war you're about to spark.



What you believe or don't believe is irrelevant. Why are you so concerned with what administration Saudi's may choose? Worry about your government at home. Of course, if Sunni majority democracy arises you won't be content with it. You want minority Shia's to take control of the country so you can exploit the wealth of the country. Just like Iran is doing in Iraq. It buys sellout Iraqi Shia clerics, encourages them to mass brainwash the population through religious activity. Then makes money out of the dirty game.

There's a reason these clerics tell the people not to seek much and just 'thank God'. Basically telling them to put all their hope in God as a way to distract them from the corruption. So if this about rationality for you, you would also oppose Iranian government with same fervor.

You asked a question dumba$$. I explained to you the difference it would make to me. This is a message board. People talk about their ideas.

And what makes you think I don't oppose the Iranian government?

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

If that happens, it is a good thing. If oil stays low, Saudi Arabia will hemorrhage massively and dies of exsanguination. Iran on the other hand has been used to living with sanctions and almost no oil income anyways. It is a battle of wills now. Saudis are dependent on oil income for everything from imported labor to imported baby sitter to imported weapons to imported food and protection by foreign powers. They have no chance to survive.

And do you still live with that mentality? It has been like a century since you started expecting Saudi fall, and all we have been seeing is stronger and stronger Saudi Arabia.

 

[Falcon29]

I never said that. You are outright lying here. What I had said was, West is getting tired of supporting Saudis since the Saudis are creating more problem instead of propagating the Western influence because of extreme Saudi incompetence. Saudis promised West to bring down Assad government using their proxies, and now the West is paying the price in its cities.

The West is getting tired of middle east and wants to disengage leaving the region since it has bigger worries else where for example in Eastern Europe with Russia and in East Asia with China. Iran is in independent state unlike the vassal state of Saudi Arabia and with changing geopolitical objectives of the West in middle east, Iran will be the one benefiting from the void created by Western disengagement. Iran has been investing in this for decades now. Time has come to cash the investment with interest.

Yeah, Iran so independent you need US/Russian military intervention in both Iraq/Syria to safeguard your interests. Take pride in your country in different ways. And just learn to accept reality as it is. West and Iran have common interests across the region, later in the year EU market will open for Iran. Iranian people are fans of Western lifestyle and will become increasingly secular.

Iran and West are not headed on collision course. You and others want to propagate such narrative since you still need to try getting Saudi Shia's to be cannon fodder in the future. Once Iran get's what it wants in Saudi Arabia, they will have a very good laugh, make peace with Israel and invite Western tourists to recognize 'greatness' of Persia. Iranians won't take it any farther than that, since they fear for their lives and don't actually believe in religion.

You asked a question dumba$$. I explained to you the difference it would make to me. This is a message board. People talk about their ideas.

And what makes you think I don't oppose the Iranian government?

Iranians need to accept Saudi is Sunni state and will remains so. Then both countries need form of democracy headed by rational people. If they could end any animosity towards each other afterwards, then that would be great. If that is what you're implying , we are on same page.

 

[Falcon29]

A Palestinian who does not even have a state, is here teaching Iranians, the intricacies of geopolitics and political independence.

@Horus @WAJsal

I don't think this is behavior expected from a TT.

 

[bozorgmehr]

Yeah, Iran so independent you need US/Russian military intervention in both Iraq/Syria to safeguard your interests. Take pride in your country in different ways. And just learn to accept reality as it is. West and Iran have common interests across the region, later in the year EU market will open for Iran. Iranian people are fans of Western lifestyle and will become increasingly secular.

Iran and West are not headed on collision course. You and others want to propagate such narrative since you still need to try getting Saudi Shia's to be cannon fodder in the future. Once Iran get's what it wants in Saudi Arabia, they will have a very good laugh, make peace with Israel and invite Western tourists to recognize 'greatness' of Persia. Iranians won't take it any farther than that, since they fear for their lives and don't actually believe in religion.



Iranians need to accept Saudi is Sunni state and will remains so. Then both countries need form of democracy headed by rational people. If they could end any animosity towards each other afterwards, then that would be great. If that is what you're implying , we are on same page.

I don't give two sh!ts about shia or sunni. This is not a religious conflict at its core. What I care about is that Arabs have gone to great lengths in the past to destroy Iran. And they remain a threat to us. The reasons may be as silly and petty and irrational as you like. But the results remain the same.

Irans posture in the region is to a great extent a result of that threat. And I support that as long it is to put the crazy Arabs in check and protect Iran.

 

[Falcon29]

I don't give two sh!ts about shia or sunni. This is not a religious conflict at its core. What I care about is that Arabs have gone to great lengths in the past to destroy Iran. And they remain a threat to us. The reasons may be as silly and petty and irrational as you like. But the results remain the same.

Irans posture in the region is to a great extent a result of that threat. And I support that as long it is to put the crazy Arabs in check and protect Iran.

I am from Levant, and Iran doesn't come up in our minds. Maybe you believe that is different case with Gulf Arabs. From what I've observed, the past is the past. Most Gulf Arabs I've seen nowadays are secular/wealthy and not concerned about Iran as long as it doesn't intervene in their affairs. I'm not a fan of your argument, which is ripped off from conservative Western/Israeli politicians. They say their actions/policies are all preventive in nature. This is obviously false. Iran, Israel and US don't face existential security threats from Arabs. Their activities in region are offensive and aimed to achieve different things depending on the case. Israel for example, occupies West Bank to alter the demographics illegally and takeover water resources.

So I appreciate your attempt to brandish as a innocent, preventive measure. But, we all know it's not as such, rather is hostility towards Arabs and they will continue seeing it that way.

 

[bozorgmehr]

I am from Levant, and Iran doesn't come up in our minds. Maybe you believe that is different case with Gulf Arabs. From what I've observed, the past is the past. Most Gulf Arabs I've seen nowadays are secular/wealthy and not concerned about Iran as long as it doesn't intervene in their affairs. I'm not a fan of your argument, which is ripped off from conservative Western/Israeli politicians. They say their actions/policies are all preventive in nature. This is obviously false. Iran, Israel and US don't face existential security threats from Arabs. Their activities in region are offensive and aimed to achieve different things depending on the case. Israel for example, occupies West Bank to alter the demographics illegally and takeover water resources.

So I appreciate your attempt to brandish as a innocent, preventive measure. But, we all know it's not as such, rather is hostility towards Arabs and they will continue seeing it that way.

Cut the crap! There are no innocents here. But if you help invade and wage war on another country for 8 years, and continue your nasty racist and religious rhetoric against them, claim pieces of their territory, angle yourself against them at every turn, ask your protector to knock them down and then walk by whistling in the wind as if nothing has happened, then I will tell you there is something wrong with your head. As the saying goes, what will you do with the smell?

Iran is relatively safer today, precisely because of the actions it has taken against the crazy Arabs. Imagine what would happen if they came to power in Iraq? So yes Iran should whatever it can to put them in check in Iraq and Syria and Yemen too, if possible, until the crazy Arabs are liquidated or they learn the cost of not playing nice....

 

[Falcon29]

Cut the crap! There are no innocents here. But if you help invade and wage war on another country for 8 years, and continue your nasty racist and religious rhetoric against them, claim pieces of their territory, angle yourself against them at every turn, ask your protector to knock them down and then walk by whistling in the wind as if nothing has happened, then I will tell you there is something wrong with your head. As the saying goes, what will you do with the smell?

Iran is relatively safer today, precisely because of the actions it has taken against the crazy Arabs. Imagine what would happen if they came to power in Iraq? So yes Iran should whatever it can to put them in check in Iraq and Syria and Yemen too, if possible, until the crazy Arabs are liquidated or they learn the cost of not playing nice....

Cut the trolling out. Arab states held Saddam as an enemy, and got in war shortly afterwards(Iran Iraq war) with Iraq. None of them posed threat to you. Iraq was secular prior to wars. All these 'threats' emerged recently. Yelling and being childish won't get your narrative across. You need honest/straightforward narratives rather than ones held by radical Iranian nationalist if you want me to accept it.