Frogman
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This thread is meant as a reality check for every single member on this forum who continually propagates the view that Russian military intervention in Syria will decimate the ranks of the Free Syrian Army, The Islamic State, and Al-Qaeda affiliated militias. I will attempt to make it as simple and as brief as possible.
Will Russian operations turn the tide for Assad's embattled Syrian Arab Army?
No, Russian military intervention will not produce any clear winners nor will it give the Syrian Arab Army a significant edge on the battlefield across Syria.
Why?
It is simple. The assets that the Russians have currently deployed are not significant in number. At any one time the Russians will only be able to deploy around four not very sophisticated (beside perhaps the Su-34) aircraft.
In addition to that the Russians appear to be using a mix of precision guided munitions and free fall munitions. From footage released it appears that unguided munitions are used in the lion's share of sorties so far.
A reliance on unguided munitions will mean more collateral damage (civilian deaths) which may be politically and eventually militarily counter-productive (although this is another debate entirely).
More importantly, the use of unguided munitions will result in strike sorties against targets being less effective (as we have already seen) and will complicate close air support sorties.
Another major point is that the Russian operations in Syria are at the end of a very long supply and
logistics chain.
So at times it may not be surprising to find the forces stationed there to be under resourced and equipped.
To put this into perspective the entire Russian commitment based out of Latakia is far less capable than one US aircraft carrier.
It is of note that the entire Western Coalition has thus far been largely ineffective in trying to root out or degrade The Islamic State and Al-Qaeda affiliated militias in Syria from the air.
So what will Russian military intervention mean for the Syrian Arab Army?
It is unlikely to be a force multiplier due to its size and capabilities but it will however boost the morale of the Syrian Arab Army. Which is very important considering they have taken a substantial battering in this war of attrition.
What the Russian deployment does act as though is a trigger force. Meaning it may potentially disrupt direct intervention by outside powers in favour of the revolt against Assad by simply having a presence there.
So what is Russia's military 'mission' in Syria?
First and foremost they must stop rebel advances towards a Mediterranean port. Specifically, they will target Jaysh Alfath which was instrumental in the capture of Idlib and which has Latakia in it's sights.
It is only logical that the majority of their strikes will be in and around Latakia. They must secure their area of operations before they do anything else.
So far Russian strikes in that area have allowed them to grab the initiative but whether they can maintain momentum is questionable.
Their strikes in that area will likely continue until Idllib is retaken (if that ever actually happens) and may even continue beyond that.
Something to keep an eye out for though is potential Russian plans to base long rang air defence systems. This may complicate things for coalition forces if the Russians plan to enforce an 'area denial' policy over the Eastern Mediterranean.
So what about Russian operations against The Islamic State?
Russian air strikes have so far focused on FSA and Al-Qaeda affiliated militias.
Many of which have connections to the United States and a tripartite of Gulf nations. This may be a reason why Russia has deployed air to air fighters alongside its contingent of bombers.
Strikes against the Islamic State so far appear to be symbolic.
Required in order to further propagate Russian propaganda at home/abroad and allow a certain amount of political manoeuvring.
In order to effectively tackle The Islamic State Assad needs to secure his immediate neighbourhood which is in the West of the country. The Islamic State is concentrated within the East. In between there's a lot of empty land and Syrian rebels.
In order to move against The Islamic State Assad needs to regain the Syrian heartland stopping the war there and replacing it with an area that requires policing rather than war fighting.
The above will not be easy and Russian military involvement will not help that much.
Will Russia be successful?
At this point in time it's difficult to answer this question but a look into Russia's past may give us a glimpse.
The Soviet Union was particularly successful in the Cold War across South East Asia and Central/South America. It was capable of frustrating the United States by wining proxy wars.
However, once they deployed Soviet boots in Afghanistan their success was rapidly shunted.
Will this be another repeat of Afghanistan or a successful proxy war? I don't know.
What I do know is that this intervention will further muddle an already confusing war and one which there will be no clear winner and only one victim, the Syrian people.
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Short and sweet. Will add things I missed to this.
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