Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[PakFactor]

The original aims - all on Russian sites - were to cut Ukraine off from the sea and occupy the east from the Deneiper to the Russian border. No fly warnings were lodged until 8 March in the east and the rest of Ukraine until the first week of May, when the Russians expected it all to be over. They also had their 24 point list of "demands", which included Russian bases in Ukraine, amongst many others which were to be imposed. He had the Crimea and the west did nothing, but that's back on the table now. There is no way that th west can start trading with Russia again until Ukraine is happy with a peace deal and that will NOT include giving away Crimea. Putin is defeated, but he just doesn't know it.

Crimea I think it'll stay with Russia but it depends how talks go and what's agreed upon, I suppose until more details emerge.

Rest I agree with you, and you know what I like that, I like a wounded bear as I said many times I don't think Russia would have done this without tactic approval of the Chinese. The Chinese in my opinion used Russia to test the waters they will study this and insulate themselves in the eventuality they have to go to war, while keeping the European theater open. Having a wounded bear that's a hot iron on European borders in my opinion is a good thing from a Pakistani stand point, and they'll have to deal with this long-term.

As for the Russians they will regroup and rearm. They are known to hold grudges and get revenge down the road. In a way this war was a blessing as well for them, they now know they have to clean house in the rank and file, the purge will be brutal almost Stalin like.

One aspect of this conflict which we forget is the media. It's portrayal of European life versus "The Rest" didn't play out well and it's effect will be long lasting on the Russian population and "The Rest", and it was about time these inner feelings were let out. You should have seen the Polish MP today it brought a smile to my face the more he talked. Cold War like Russian-phobia, Islamophobia and Sinophobia this couldn't have gotten any better than this.

 

[Wood]

You people have heard that Sinopec cancelled a deal with Russia, right? I did said that China was slow walking away from Russia.

Just saw that news. Very interesting development.

Chinese oil giant Sinopec halts Russian projects amid West’s sanctions on Moscow - National | Globalnews.ca

The move by Asia's biggest oil refiner highlights the risks, even to Russia's most important diplomatic partner, of unexpectedly heavy Western-led sanctions.

globalnews.ca

Beijing has repeatedly voiced opposition to the sanctions, insisting it will maintain normal economic and trade exchanges with Russia, and has refused to condemn Moscow’s actions in Ukraine or call them an invasion.

But behind the scenes, the government is wary of Chinese companies running afoul of sanctions – it is pressing companies to tread carefully with investments in Russia, its second-largest oil supplier and third-largest gas provider.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

The Russians have been effectively defeated on the northern axis. Now it’s time to rout their withdrawal before these forces redeploy to the east.

Outside of long range missile or artillery strikes on Kiev, the Kiev offensive is over.

You made the specific prediction that there was going to be a Ukrainian counterattack to turn Russian withdrawal into a rout.

You want to bet on this prediction, loser gets banned for 3 months? 7 days for a counterattack and turning the withdrawal into a rout (>30% Russian forces proven to be destroyed or captured)

 

[gambit]

Just saw that news. Very interesting development.

Chinese oil giant Sinopec halts Russian projects amid West’s sanctions on Moscow - National | Globalnews.ca

The move by Asia's biggest oil refiner highlights the risks, even to Russia's most important diplomatic partner, of unexpectedly heavy Western-led sanctions.

globalnews.ca

There WILL be more individual disengagements as Chinese companies do their cost/benefits analyses and find no real benefits in Russia. It maybe possible that China will find Russia even worthless as an international b!tch. How bad can it get...

 

[Wood]

There WILL be more individual disengagements as Chinese companies do their cost/benefits analyses and find no real benefits in Russia. It maybe possible that China will find Russia even worthless as an international b!tch. How bad can it get...

Do you think western sanctions on Russia will be removed if Putin decides to stop the hostilities in Ukraine? I don't think that Putin can afford to give up his territorial gains in the east and south given the level of causalities endured so far.

 

[gambit]

Do you think western sanctions on Russia will be removed if Putin decides to stop the hostilities in Ukraine? I don't think that Putin can afford to give up his territorial gains in the east and south given the level of causalities endured so far.

My opinion is that sanctions will be removed only if Poutine is out. We may ease some, but the sanctions will remain as long as Poutine is in power. And if Poutine is out, Ukrainians will get their land back because the Russian leadership cannot afford to keep the Russian economy bottomed out. No one, not even the Western powers, expected the speed and vehemence of the combined governmental and non-governmental entities that went against Russia. There is also the option of forcing Russia to compensate Ukraine for the war.

 

[mmr]

You people have heard that Sinopec cancelled a deal with Russia, right? I did said that China was slow walking away from Russia.

pdf fan boys disagree lol

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Russian drone guided artillery hammer Ukrainian positions.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508904300818358283

 

[WotTen]

Ukraine has every problem Russia does but worse. Their GDP per capita is far lower than Russia.

The West will make sure that frozen Russian money in the West is used to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine, compensation to Ukrainian victims, compensation to Western corporate assets seized in Russia, etc., etc.

It will be like what the Allies did to Germany after WW1.

Will it push Russia back into war, as it did Germany in WW2?

 

[Clutch]

It is comical how some people are still trying to blame NATO for this mess, when the last eastern expansion was over 18 years ago. The fact is that had Ukraine joined NATO with the other Baltic states in 2004, there would not be a war now, and we would not have 10s of thousands dead and 10 million plus made homeless. This is all down to Putin's delusional dream of expanding Russia, but that dream has turned into a nightmare for not only Putin but also all of Russia.

Actually, I couldn't care less. Let them kill each other off... I do not have a dog in the fight. White on White killings.

As long as they don't take the rest of the world along with them...

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

The West will make sure that frozen Russian money in the West is used to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine, compensation to Ukrainian victims, compensation to Western corporate assets seized in Russia, etc., etc.

It will be like what the Allies did to Germany after WW1.

Will it push Russia back into war, as it did Germany in WW2?

In general, foreign reserves are on a ledger in the issuing country. For example, Euro foreign reserves are held on computers in the ECB.

The minute Russian reserves were frozen, it meant the money is gone. As for how much goes to Ukraine, that is independent of how much money Russia loses. They can enter whatever number they want on the Ukrainian central bank account.

So it wouldn't really be reimbursement, it'll be destruction of Russian reserves and creation of money for Ukraine. That sounds like reimbursement. But since Russia likely inflicted damage exceeding the value of it's reserves they'll be forced to create more money than they can confiscate from Russia.

 

[Wood]

My opinion is that sanctions will be removed only if Poutine is out. We may ease some, but the sanctions will remain as long as Poutine is in power. And if Poutine is out, Ukrainians will get their land back because the Russian leadership cannot afford to keep the Russian economy bottomed out. No one, not even the Western powers, expected the speed and vehemence of the combined governmental and non-governmental entities that went against Russia. There is also the option of forcing Russia to compensate Ukraine for the war.

If Putin gives up territorial gains and withdraws with only a neutrality agreement, then he would fail in the eyes of Russian public. Historically, this has meant downfall for dictators. Every despotic ruler will try to prioritize his throne above all else; for this reason I don't think that Putin will consider what you say.

But we'll see what happens, if there is a peace deal to be made in the first place.

 

[WotTen]

In general, foreign reserves are on a ledger in the issuing country. For example, Euro foreign reserves are held on computers in the ECB.

The minute Russian reserves were frozen, it meant the money is gone. As for how much goes to Ukraine, that is independent of how much money Russia loses. They can enter whatever number they want on the Ukrainian central bank account.

So it wouldn't really be reimbursement, it'll be destruction of Russian reserves and creation of money for Ukraine. That sounds like reimbursement. But since Russia likely inflicted damage exceeding the value of it's reserves they'll be forced to create more money than they can confiscate from Russia.

You are right that all official Russian reserves in the West are forfeit. Russia will never see that money again. Going beyond state assets, the West might confiscate oligarch assets. It might impose a penalty on future oil/gas payments to Russia to make up the shortfall.

It seems all but official that Russia has lost this war, and the winner always writes the rules.

 

[oberschlesier]

It is well known that soviet bloc countries were bad in market economy at low level - like cola/cornflakes etc. But they were excellent and matching step to step with anyone at high tech level - rocket science, medicine etc. But that was easy to correct as china demonstrated with its reforms.

Anyway you are way exaggerating things in east germany. Many germans are pretty nostalgic about it.

You are joking, are you ? Have lived in the Eastern Block ? The quality of life was shit, corruption was everywhere, and those advances were very costly for the population and just for the state to show, how "advanced" and powerfull we are. No respect for the invidual, the state was always more important. I think in RU not much changed, hey have Kinzhal hypersonic missles, but the average troops don`t have working radios.

 

[F-22Raptor]

You made the specific prediction that there was going to be a Ukrainian counterattack to turn Russian withdrawal into a rout.

You want to bet on this prediction, loser gets banned for 3 months? 7 days for a counterattack and turning the withdrawal into a rout (>30% Russian forces proven to be destroyed or captured)

I’m not betting on anything, just stating that Russia has been defeated on the northern axis.

The UK MOD agrees as well:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508904940181372936