Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Elias MC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503123881753784334

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503115597537812484

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503122806174887937

 

[Wood]

Russia will win the war and gobble most of Ukraine. Digesting it would be a different matter.

The real question here is what China will do. China can't let Russia fail, because if it happens, they will stand alone to face America. Beijing may not like it, but they are now locked in this conflict. Xi probably didn't expect the epic showdown's timeline to speed up. Let's see.

I have a creeping suspicion that Russia would have discussed with China about launching an attack across Taiwan if NATO should engage Russia in Ukraine. That would be his insurance in case this conflict escalates into an all out war with NATO.

From the Chinese perspective, Russia would be a good cannon fodder to keep European countries busy should they try to militarily deter China's operation in Taiwan.

Now that NATO has declared to not involve itself in Ukraine militarily but instead has torpedoed Russian economy, Putin seems dumbfounded. He would have not expected a seizure of his war chest and strategic disinvestment in oil and gas from West. Putin's industries are integrated into Western supply chain for production. Moving them to Chinese tech may take longer than what it takes for the industries to stay afloat. Politically also, the Ukranians are unlikely to accept Russian puppets to rule them even after an eventual military defeat. Putin cannot keep his military infinitely there. This puts him in a no win scenario strategically.

Perhaps he will take the military win and then dress up the strategic defeat in some sort of treaty. Thus he may be able to roll back his army and get the economic sanctions lifted for no big gain from pre war position.

Or like a deranged gambler, Putin can attack NATO and hope that China will join the war and somehow turn this into a world war. The end of the story then would largely depend on how good the Chinese can fight in such a conflict. We've already seen that Russian capabilities are not impressive.

Final possibility is that the Western countries play chicken and give up on Ukraine and sanctions (for nothing) like Tucker Carlson would like Biden to do. But this seems least likely based on public sentiment right now.

 

[lightning F57]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503122806174887937

Think its fake news to put pressure on China.

 

[NotSure]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503122806174887937

Another proof, that US spokespersons are cheap liars. And F-22 here is spamming non stop the thread with their cheap propaganda.

 

[Realtalk108]

I have a creeping suspicion that Russia would have discussed with China about launching an attack across Taiwan if NATO should engage Russia in Ukraine. That would be his insurance in case this conflict escalates into an all out war with NATO.

Absolutely. China knew. Can't say about Taiwan but that big declaration about "comprehensive strategic partnership" with all the festivities just before the invasion can mean only one thing.

Now that NATO has declared to not involve itself in Ukraine militarily but instead has torpedoed Russian economy, Putin seems dumbfounded. He would have not expected a seizure of his war chest and strategic disinvestment in oil and gas from West. Putin's industries are integrated into Western supply chain for production. Moving them to Chinese tech may take longer than what it takes for the industries to stay afloat. Politically also, the Ukranians are unlikely to accept Russian puppets to rule them even after an eventual military defeat. Putin cannot keep his military infinitely there. This puts him in a no win scenario strategically.

I don't think China even has replacements for the most crucial tech. Huawei may cover some mobile chips. But who will supply Intel, nVidia, ARM, AMD? Chinese manufacturers are going to lose their license if they do. China will buy oil and gas tho.

Ukranians aren't going to roll over and accept the occupation either. We are looking at a massive insurgency that will make Iraq in 2005 look like picnic. And they will be supplied heavily by NATO. Putin may not last.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503016576546574337

 

[CrazyZ]

I have a creeping suspicion that Russia would have discussed with China about launching an attack across Taiwan if NATO should engage Russia in Ukraine. That would be his insurance in case this conflict escalates into an all out war with NATO.

From the Chinese perspective, Russia would be a good cannon fodder to keep European countries busy should they try to militarily deter China's operation in Taiwan.

Now that NATO has declared to not involve itself in Ukraine militarily but instead has torpedoed Russian economy, Putin seems dumbfounded. He would have not expected a seizure of his war chest and strategic disinvestment in oil and gas from West. Putin's industries are integrated into Western supply chain for production. Moving them to Chinese tech may take longer than what it takes for the industries to stay afloat. Politically also, the Ukranians are unlikely to accept Russian puppets to rule them even after an eventual military defeat. Putin cannot keep his military infinitely there. This puts him in a no win scenario strategically.

Perhaps he will take the military win and then dress up the strategic defeat in some sort of treaty. Thus he may be able to roll back his army and get the economic sanctions lifted for no big gain from pre war position.

Or like a deranged gambler, Putin can attack NATO and hope that China will join the war and somehow turn this into a world war. The end of the story then would largely depend on how good the Chinese can fight in such a conflict. We've already seen that Russian capabilities are not impressive.

Final possibility is that the Western countries play chicken and give up on Ukraine and sanctions (for nothing) like Tucker Carlson would like Biden to do. But this seems least likely based on public sentiment right now.

NATO will have to yield Ukraine to Russia. NATO will just make Russia pay a pound of flesh in the process. Bigger issues on the global chess board will be economic in nature. China can prosper from this as well as the MENA nations. Western nations will go into recession for sure in the next year. If China can secure Russian commodities paid for in yuan at discount then it will continue growing and become the worlds largest economy faster then expected. EU will be the biggest losers economically in the long run Russia the biggest loser economically in the short run. Impacts on USA will be most muted but I expect USA to go into recession very soon and have to deal with the rise of yuan as a reserve currency longer term.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503060494474780675

 

[NotSure]

Dogs opinion about the weapons (Javelin) shipment to ukraine:

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503113311893741571

 

[Microsoft]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503016576546574337

More weak posturing by this administration! This is the USA negotiating on Russian and Chinese terms all the while American population pays higher costs just to lose prestige. Absolutely disgusting!

 

[Clutch]

What has the history to do with the present conflict?
You are wrong if you want to solve the present conflict in light of the history ... Care to refute this???

They have switched sides even during modern times.... The Ukrainian are a pretty corrupt society...

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503127810533167106

 

[Elias MC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503129426401374213