Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Meengla]

But Ukraine is a country that have 1/3 the population of Russia, I would say except for the Eastern Ukrainian, almost all of them are going to be hostile to the Russian. And I can't see any way Russia can conquer the entire Ukraine, which make Western Ukraine more important than Eastern Ukraine, because this is where it border Poland, Romania and Hungary, that entire region needed to be occupied, otherwise Western Ukraine would become enclave of Ukrainian insurgency activities

Yes, it is mind boggling why would Russia go beyond eastern Ukraine or maybe a tiny sliver in southern Ukraine. Unless we don't know something which Putin knows, the invasion sounds destined to a historic failure.

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498322542498656257

 

[jhungary]

If I were Putin, I would leave the western Ukraine untouched. Take the eastern Ukraine and use Dnieper river as the border to divide the country. Ukrainians would still have a place to call their country, which is where most Ukrainian-speaking folks live anyway.

It does not work that way.

Ukraine will raise an insurgency as long as Russia is occupying any part of Ukraine. Leaving Western Ukraine unguard would have been a big mistake.

If they were big on ceding territories, we probably won't have this war to begin with.

 

[Khanate]

Western Exceptionalism

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498316561442127872

 

[Titanium100]

Diplomacy with President Putin

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498318222961094656

I don't believe in a word of this.. Russia has gained almost NovoRossiya including almost 20% of Ukraine do you really think he will settle for only fuking Crimea being recognized unrealistic

 

[jamahir]

Whether Russia seized being commie or not is not the point. Do you supported Russias actions of trying to protect its territorial intergrity against separatists groups YES OR NO? LOL

I will instead ask you, are the anti-Ukranian-government people of Donetsk and Luhansk supported by you when those regions were supported for independence by Russia the day before the war started ?

Ahahaha I was sure you supported Russia's action in Chechnya(though you are now crying crocodile tears against Ukraine's government operation against Russian separatists groups ) .

AFAIK the Chechen wars were old wars that had stopped for the most part of the USSR's existence. I think the war sentiment got revived after the USSR's dissolution through influence by the India-origin Muslim movement the Tableeghi Jamaat. But all this I think is not within the scope of this thread's discussions.

FactCheck: This is a brave Palestinian girl

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497840712821329923

"The media is presented out of context". LOL, what a bunch of excuse words by Twitter to say that the tweeter was telling a lie.

Also, brave of the Palestinian girl.

 

[jhungary]

Yes, it is mind boggling why would Russia go beyond eastern Ukraine or maybe a tiny sliver in southern Ukraine. Unless we don't know something which Putin knows, the invasion sounds destined to a historic failure.

The Russian need Ukrainian government to capitulate, you can only do it by taking Kyiv, and you cannot take Kyiv with a single strike across Belarus. You will get flanked by 3 flanks.

 

[Khanate]

COVID and a nuclear war...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498290121556336646

 

[Paul2]

As with my last post, It is quite clear form the get go for the Russian to lead a "North/South" charge and link up between Northern arm with the southern arm form Crimea .So I would have to say the the keys for Ukrainian defence is going to be to defend both Dnipro (in the south) and Kyiv (in the north)

The problem is, Russia as of now is already seriously behind. Current intel suggested a 96-120 hours delay. Objective that supposed to be taken on the first day is still in Ukrainian hand. Mariupol, which specifically were supposed to be deposed in the first minute of battle, still stay with Ukraine., Kyiv, a day 2 at most objective is still stand. Dnirpo are virtually untouched. Kharkiv is not yet fallen. There are even news that Antonov Airport are under assault by Ukrainian army. All these are the strategic objective, and they are not yet taken, in fact, the only "Major Milestone" for Russia is taken Berdiansk, a city of less than 100,000. That is not a good time table.

So two things is going to happen. The war is going to have to speed up, which mean more Brutal Russia response, which in turn mean more resolve on Ukrainian resistance. And another thing is going to happen is Russia is going to pour more resource into Ukraine.

Now, the problem is, what people see the problem Russia is suffering is command and control problem and logistic problem and it is not going to solve itself just because you need to hurry up. In fact the entire system failed because they were in a hurry to begin with. So that have to be rethink. All these tanks that ran out of fuel cannot be happen again, and LOGPAK are going to be delivered into the right place on time. That will stress the entire campaign.

On another thing, more unit got thrown into the fray will magnify the C&C problem and also the logistic problem. That would have to be an issue, how are you going to pipe in reinforcement? Send them to where they needed the most? That is THE problem.

Another issue is that Russia need to think about what happen after they defeated the Ukrainian Defence Force in a conventional battlefield. There are VERY HIGH chance that Ukrainian are going to wage an insurgency toward Russia. Which I can assure you whatever left of that Russian force is not going to be enough to deal with. You also need to think of how to contain such insurgency, now, traditional wisdom would suggest you need to get the entire country in control, and then squeeze the insurgency out. But Ukraine is a country that have 1/3 the population of Russia, I would say except for the Eastern Ukrainian, almost all of them are going to be hostile to the Russian. And I can't see any way Russia can conquer the entire Ukraine, which make Western Ukraine more important than Eastern Ukraine, because this is where it border Poland, Romania and Hungary, that entire region needed to be occupied, otherwise Western Ukraine would become enclave of Ukrainian insurgency activities. Which mean the entire troop deposition as of now need to shift West once Ukraine Defence Force is defeated. Do they even have time to do that? Unlike what we did back in Iraq, we enjoy a honeymoon period, and then half life set in, and the entire country turn on us. In this case, there are no half life, there are no honeymoon, the entire population of Ukraine is going to be hostile to Russian.

And finally, the economy sanction factor, unlike the other, this is one giant swoop. It basically destroy Russian economy and its banking system. And it will take them ages for China to restore it for Russia, on the other hand, would China want to? Because that would include a lot of financial backing, which at the current rate, mean backing a rouble that is currently down at the toilet. Effectively it would probably cheaper for Russia to adopt Yuan as official currency.

From all of this I see an instant opportunity... if it will be the case.

If they will just "add more metaballs" on already congested, and bombed offensive lines in forests near Kiyv, they will get slaughtered under arty fire, and occasional airstrikes even more.

They will try to counter with bombings of their own, and here 30 Polish MiGs will be handy. If these 30 migs can solidly secure skies over the central landmass of the country, they will be able fo pick off Russians bombing raids.

Russians completely unfolded in the south, and their supply lines, and forces there are most stressed I believe. And there are just too many options for a cutoff

The Eastern front I believe would be the easiest target for Russians to overwhelm by classic soviet massive arty/armour/meatball push

All depends on actual intel, which we don't have

 

[nang2]

It does not work that way.

Ukraine will raise an insurgency as long as Russia is occupying any part of Ukraine. Leaving Western Ukraine unguard would have been a big mistake.

If they were big on ceding territories, we probably won't have this war to begin with.

They didn't seem to mind that much after Russia took over Crimea. Maybe they thought Crimea wasn't theirs to begin with. However, they may cede territories if they can trade them with NATO membership. I doubt NATO would let them in if they are in constant conflict with Russia.

 

[thetutle]

The reported range for a Javelin missile is 2500m, but you are not going to hit that far, the optimal kill range is between 800 - 1000 meters.

Depends on how you use them and more importantly, how you hide them, it could be a devastated weapon if the enemy uses armor for COIN. But I don't think Russia is going to heavy on tank when they occupied Ukraine. More likely they will be staffed by light skin vehicle. if this is the case, IED is probably the weapon of choice.

You can engage 3 tanks if you have 3 operators using them at the same time, they are 1 launcher 1 missile weapon.

ok good to know. Thank you, I was just thinking 3 targets 800m away and 3 operators, will they get confused whose target belongs to whom. You dont want to hit the same target 3 times and then the surviving target blows you to hell.

I just think motivated army that goes insurgent with 5,000 of these, and a few thousand stingers can really really hurt an occupying force. I mean this is a target rich environment. You hit a truck with a javelin you've taken out 10 or 15 troops potentially.

It just seem like Russia is in trouble if NATO keeps arming the future insurgency.

 

[dBSPL]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498315967365066757

 

[Khan vilatey]

As with my last post, It is quite clear form the get go for the Russian to lead a "North/South" charge and link up between Northern arm with the southern arm form Crimea .So I would have to say the the keys for Ukrainian defence is going to be to defend both Dnipro (in the south) and Kyiv (in the north)

The problem is, Russia as of now is already seriously behind. Current intel suggested a 96-120 hours delay. Objective that supposed to be taken on the first day is still in Ukrainian hand. Mariupol, which specifically were supposed to be deposed in the first minute of battle, still stay with Ukraine., Kyiv, a day 2 at most objective is still stand. Dnirpo are virtually untouched. Kharkiv is not yet fallen. There are even news that Antonov Airport are under assault by Ukrainian army. All these are the strategic objective, and they are not yet taken, in fact, the only "Major Milestone" for Russia is taken Berdiansk, a city of less than 100,000. That is not a good time table.

So two things is going to happen. The war is going to have to speed up, which mean more Brutal Russia response, which in turn mean more resolve on Ukrainian resistance. And another thing is going to happen is Russia is going to pour more resource into Ukraine.

Now, the problem is, what people see the problem Russia is suffering is command and control problem and logistic problem and it is not going to solve itself just because you need to hurry up. In fact the entire system failed because they were in a hurry to begin with. So that have to be rethink. All these tanks that ran out of fuel cannot be happen again, and LOGPAK are going to be delivered into the right place on time. That will stress the entire campaign.

On another thing, more unit got thrown into the fray will magnify the C&C problem and also the logistic problem. That would have to be an issue, how are you going to pipe in reinforcement? Send them to where they needed the most? That is THE problem.

Another issue is that Russia need to think about what happen after they defeated the Ukrainian Defence Force in a conventional battlefield. There are VERY HIGH chance that Ukrainian are going to wage an insurgency toward Russia. Which I can assure you whatever left of that Russian force is not going to be enough to deal with. You also need to think of how to contain such insurgency, now, traditional wisdom would suggest you need to get the entire country in control, and then squeeze the insurgency out. But Ukraine is a country that have 1/3 the population of Russia, I would say except for the Eastern Ukrainian, almost all of them are going to be hostile to the Russian. And I can't see any way Russia can conquer the entire Ukraine, which make Western Ukraine more important than Eastern Ukraine, because this is where it border Poland, Romania and Hungary, that entire region needed to be occupied, otherwise Western Ukraine would become enclave of Ukrainian insurgency activities. Which mean the entire troop deposition as of now need to shift West once Ukraine Defence Force is defeated. Do they even have time to do that? Unlike what we did back in Iraq, we enjoy a honeymoon period, and then half life set in, and the entire country turn on us. In this case, there are no half life, there are no honeymoon, the entire population of Ukraine is going to be hostile to Russian.

And finally, the economy sanction factor, unlike the other, this is one giant swoop. It basically destroy Russian economy and its banking system. And it will take them ages for China to restore it for Russia, on the other hand, would China want to? Because that would include a lot of financial backing, which at the current rate, mean backing a rouble that is currently down at the toilet. Effectively it would probably cheaper for Russia to adopt Yuan as official currency.

I disagree, look at this video, it explains quiet well that the Russian advance is exactly on time…. The Russian seem to be avoiding civilian casualties for now and are using conscripts to test enemy strength.

Just to be sure that there is no doubt, I stand with Ukraine . This however does not mean we ignore the facts on the ground. I do agree there will be an insurgency after the illegal Russian occupation begins.

K

 

[mike2000 is back]

By that logic what is Zelensky complaining about

I NEVER said it was wrong about Zelensky or any leader for that matter complaining. Obviously they will do so, since its also suite their interests to draw more world support and sympathy for the cause. Civilian casualties are a given in a war. So no question there. Its normal.
However, as observers we should be able to distinguish between this 2 impartially. So my main point here is not about Ukraine's civilian casualties by Russian troops and mercenaries but about the act of the invasion itself. Just like I'm sure you will be against China if they ever used the excuse of protecting ethnic northeast Asians in India northeast from Indian oppression and descrimanition to invade India. Lol many countries and powers can also use that excuse for invasions. If the world normalises that then more than half the world will be at war with each other lol

 

[Muhammed45]

The countries that have closed their airspace to Russia so far.

France, Spain, England, Scotland, Germany, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Slovenia, Letonia, Lithuania, Estonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Sweden and Finland.