Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[jhungary]

Oh I havent concluded anything I am more of what if this and what if that. Gives me many angles. Ukraine after offensive has morale boost but russians are not yet loosing.

That's still "scenario fulfillment" tho.

Most intelligence piece points to 1 direction openly, that's why it was gather in the first place, otherwise it would have no value at all. So if you are looking at that piece of intelligence and think "What if this means something else....", well, one piece probably not that much of a different, but again, as I said, there are 5 pieces of intelligence that points to Russian resource being depleted, and if you started to think "What if..." in all those 5 intelligence pieces. Then you are basically ignoring the basic fact because each intelligence piece has their weight on their validity, and if you come up with 5 pieces, the weight is pretty damn sure. Because you would need to have 5 pieces of intelligence all going the different direction they were collected for. What are the chances of that happening?

On the other hand, in term of military deposition, the chances of Russia turning this around is low. The problem they had is the same problem they had back in February, there are not enough people in operation. That is quite evident that they got routed that fast losing that much land in short amount of time. The thing is, at the earliest of the war, which Russia is at its strongest (That's universally true for any invading army) they are only manage to capture city like Kupiansk and Kherson because those city was betrayed by the Russian collaborator and the Russian took them without a fight. And after a very exhausted fight to get city like Izyum and Sieverodonetsk

Now 6 months down the road, they are no as strong as they were 6 months ago, and there are no more collaborator which mean if they want to reconquer those area, they will now have to fight for it, against a reinforced and motivated defender. The odds are not good for the Russian.

Don't get me wrong, miracle do and did happen in war, I mean a tiny destroyer task force can held of Yamato and its Battleground off Philippine in WW2 (Battle off Samar) The same miracle can happen to the Russian, but as we all say, if you have to depends on miracle to happen, you are more likely already lost the war.

 

[thetutle]

Did I just explained that?

It's because of one man and his quest to fulfill a campaign promise to get re-elected....

Ad subsequent administration inabilty to act to counter that deal.

Had Trump never in power, we would still be in Afghanistan.

No they left Afghanistan because they could not defeat their enemy, the Taliban, despite spending 20 years and trillion dollars. They know that if they stayed another 20 they would be no closer to defeating them. So total military defeat with no prospect of winning. Most people realise this. But dont worry, Afghanistan has defeated many empires before. It comes quite naturally to them.

 

[925boy]

It's because of one man and his quest to fulfill a campaign promise to get re-elected....

thats a lie - US was already overspent, drained, and unable to meet its unrealistic, imperialist+ "democratic transformation" goals by the time that man promised to pull out of Afghanistan- why ignore the truth that majority of AMericans wanted US military out of Afghanistan because it was a lost cause? that's what that man /leader smartly preyed on - most leaders were so smart they were too stupid to do what the American public wanted - dont blame him, blame the US military that cant win wars, and makes them expensive for US taxpayers, who then have revoked US military's ability to start senseless wars Americans cant afford and they wont win.

Had Trump never in power, we would still be in Afghanistan.

irrelevant

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Iskander shoot cruise missiles

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571546691043561475

 

[The SC]

Ukraine blackout..

 

[ZeGerman]

No they left Afghanistan because they could not defeat their enemy, the Taliban, despite spending 20 years and trillion dollars. They know that if they stayed another 20 they would be no closer to defeating them. So total military defeat with no prospect of winning. Most people realise this. But dont worry, Afghanistan has defeated many empires before. It comes quite naturally to them.

Well. With only a dozen losses per latter years…and many billions straight into the hands of private contractors and their military industry….i can understand some parts of the USA military were perfectly fine staying there forever and leaching trillions off a budget while regular americans have to go without proper healthcare and see their infrastructure fall apart and a “working poor” class come about.

USA defense spending is way out of whack….and their influence on politics too large.

 

[Viet]

Russia not losing anything lol?

Putin’s new fairy tale is he wants to take Donbas, so just Donez und Luhansk. That’s what he said in Ubeskistan. If judging this goal then indeed he is not losing anything.
We can expect he will let his troops at Cherson to die, because they don’t fit in his grand scheme.
That may explain why the Russians since days and weeks focusing on taking Bachmut…

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571557388892635142

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571569133988216834

Putin’s new fairy tale is he wants to take Donbas, so just Donez und Luhansk. That’s what he said in Ubeskistan. If judging this goal then indeed he is not losing anything.
We can expect he will let his troops at Cherson to die, because they don’t fit in his grand scheme.
That may explain why the Russians since days and weeks focusing on taking Bachmut…

Kherson is vital to Crimea water supply. Ukrainians built at dam at Kherson to block water to Crimea. Crimean troops were particularly motivated to take Kherson in March. Kherson is just about the most heavily defended city in the world right about now.

 

[RoadAmerica]

thats a lie - US was already overspent, drained, and unable to meet its unrealistic, imperialist+ "democratic transformation" goals by the time that man promised to pull out of Afghanistan- why ignore the truth that majority of AMericans wanted US military out of Afghanistan because it was a lost cause? that's what that man /leader smartly preyed on - most leaders were so smart they were too stupid to do what the American public wanted - dont blame him, blame the US military that cant win wars, and makes them expensive for US taxpayers, who then have revoked US military's ability to start senseless wars Americans cant afford and they wont win.

irrelevant

Can’t win wars boy you’re dense.
Had they committed the troops and not nation built Afghanistan would be our new home away from home much like Russia is attempting to do in Ukraine, however we don’t do that.
Ask Saddam who won in Iraq, I’ll wait while you try to contact his spirit

 

[Ali_Baba]

Putin’s new fairy tale is he wants to take Donbas, so just Donez und Luhansk. That’s what he said in Ubeskistan. If judging this goal then indeed he is not losing anything.
We can expect he will let his troops at Cherson to die, because they don’t fit in his grand scheme.
That may explain why the Russians since days and weeks focusing on taking Bachmut…

Momentum is with Ukraine right now - and If Ukraine can make inroads into Luhansk - then even this limited goal will not be achievable for Putin. Ukraine simply has to ensure if has enough of an open door in Donbas and Luhansk so that Russia cannot stop its operations and then use the time that provides to take back Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk.

Putin is looking for a way out right now..

 

[PakFactor]

Can’t win wars boy you’re dense.
Had they committed the troops and not nation built Afghanistan would be our new home away from home much like Russia is attempting to do in Ukraine, however we don’t do that.
Ask Saddam who won in Iraq, I’ll wait while you try to contact his spirit

He's going to dust off that Ouija lol

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Momentum is with Ukraine right now - and If Ukraine can make inroads into Luhansk - then even this limited goal will not be achievable for Putin. Ukraine simply has to ensure if has enough of an open door in Donbas and Luhansk so that Russia cannot stop its operations and then use the time that provides to take back Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk.

Putin is looking for a way out right now..

Luhansk is near Russian border. Supply line from Russia is short. Supply line from Kiev is long. The bulk of Ukrainian army would get destroyed in Luhansk if they try to invade Luhansk.

And with 35 million people left, Ukraine needs all the men they have in order to have a chance at stabilizing population decline since USSR broke up in 1991.

 

[Viet]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571557388892635142

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571569133988216834

Kherson is vital to Crimea water supply. Ukrainians built at dam at Kherson to block water to Crimea. Crimean troops were particularly motivated to take Kherson in March. Kherson is just about the most heavily defended city in the world right about now.

Cherson will fall. Time runs against the 20,000 Russians trapped at the west river bank. Ukraine army has destroyed all bridges, railroads. Not possible to retreat. Foods, waters, ammo cannot come in.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Cherson will fall. Time runs against the 20,000 Russians trapped at the west river bank. Ukraine army has destroyed all bridges, railroads. Not possible to retreat. Foods, waters, ammo cannot come in.

Ukraine doesn't have enough soldiers to take Kherson. With 35 million people it's not enough to fight 148 million Russians + 5 million rebels. If Ukraine has 100 to 200 million people they can have a chance of taking Kherson.

 

[thetutle]

Well. With only a dozen losses per latter years…and many billions straight into the hands of private contractors and their military industry….i can understand some parts of the USA military were perfectly fine staying there forever and leaching trillions off a budget while regular americans have to go without proper healthcare and see their infrastructure fall apart

Yep, I can understand it too. Leeching trillions of the taxpayer.

Can’t win wars boy you’re dense.
Had they committed the troops and not nation built Afghanistan would be our new home away from home much like Russia is attempting to do in Ukraine, however we don’t do that.
Ask Saddam who won in Iraq, I’ll wait while you try to contact his spirit

Had they committed the troops. But they didnt. Why? well because they couldn't. It like saying, well russia could raise and army of 15 million and take Ukraine. yeah ok. let them try.

Can America send 2 million troops to occupy Afghanistan? not with contractors charging $1,500 per hammer. yeah. its just like Russias war, it looks possible on paper, but reality is somewhat different.

Think of the cost of doing what you are suggesting. The truth is, US lost in Afghanistan just like the British lost and USSR lost. US should consider itself lucky to have gotten out.

What US did in Germany and Japan simply cant be done in afganistan. For one, Germany and Japan consider western way of life to be superior and always strived for it. Afghanis think very little of the west and have no desire to have gay pride events anytime soon.

So you have no chance in Afghanistan. Also, Pakistan will make sure west never succeeds there.

As for Iraq, well the only people that won there are the Iranians. the Shiites got freed and Iraq is great friend with Iran. Saddam lost of course, but Saddam is not Iraq, he's just an illegitimate dictator.

If you think US won in Iraq and got itself a friend, you are seriously deluded.