Russia Steps Back From Afghanistan Transit Threat

[Mytime]

bow to the west, what a coward nation.

anyway, never trust Russians, as always being said.

Some Pakistani members on this forum were going gaga over Russia's alliance with Pakistan , now this is in contrast with what many others have felt !

 

[pmukherjee]

You are right about Russia's focus on Europe. However, the term NATO is deceptive here, since most NATO countries will vacate Afghanistan shortly. Only the US (and maybe UK) are interested in a long term presence.

Russian calculations towards the US/UK are decidedly different from their relationship with continental Europe.

Spot on. But do keep in view the entire package and not just some components of it. While most of the combatants of other countries will withdraw, the cover operations will remain under the flagship of NATO. How long does it take to constitute a multinational force comprising predominantly of Americans? A few Australian aircraft mechanics, a couple of Turkish field ambulances, German military police, Italian tank transporters ....... and you have a multinational force. Regarding US-Russian relations, believe me, there is a lot of synergy behind the scenes. Europe's dependence on Russia is on the rise and it is not limited to Russian gas alone. Russian economy has largely withstood the ravages of the European banking and Euro crises. Russian manufacturing is on the up and thus draws labour from Europe just as the higher salaries of Central Europe attract Russian labour. there is a tremendous convergence of strategic interests between Continental Europe, US and Russia. Yes, the US ABM shield is a sticking point, but Russia has floated its own version of collective security arrangement for Europe to counter this and there are those missile sites being prepared in Belorussia, Ukraine etc for the S-400s and the S-500s under development. All in all I see a well coordinated game of chess being played here. If Russia is playing hard to get, it simply means that it is jockeying for higher transit tarrif rates.

 

[Developereo]

Spot on. But do keep in view the entire package and not just some components of it. While most of the combatants of other countries will withdraw, the cover operations will remain under the flagship of NATO. How long does it take to constitute a multinational force comprising predominantly of Americans? A few Australian aircraft mechanics, a couple of Turkish field ambulances, German military police, Italian tank transporters ....... and you have a multinational force. Regarding US-Russian relations, believe me, there is a lot of synergy behind the scenes. Europe's dependence on Russia is on the rise and it is not limited to Russian gas alone. Russian economy has largely withstood the ravages of the European banking and Euro crises. Russian manufacturing is on the up and thus draws labour from Europe just as the higher salaries of Central Europe attract Russian labour. there is a tremendous convergence of strategic interests between Continental Europe, US and Russia. Yes, the US ABM shield is a sticking point, but Russia has floated its own version of collective security arrangement for Europe to counter this and there are those missile sites being prepared in Belorussia, Ukraine etc for the S-400s and the S-500s under development. All in all I see a well coordinated game of chess being played here. If Russia is playing hard to get, it simply means that it is jockeying for higher transit tarrif rates.

There is no question that Russia sees itself as part of Europe, not Asia. Culturally, ethnically and historically, they have much more in common with Eastern Europe than Central Asia. However, they are clinging to the memory of their old greatness and consider Central Asia to be off-limits to others. The relationship with China is also complex; partly going on Cold War momentum, tempered by a wariness of China's own rise.

Europe, for its part, is resentful of America's dominance and the EU is an attempt to assert French/German influence. Going forward, it is much more likely that continental Europe will move away from US and towards Russia. Russian nationalism pines for the old glory days, but there is no chance of regaining the former status. The most they can achieve now is to be a senior partner in a European alliance.

So, they all have their common interests as well as their own agendas. As far as NATO in Afghanistan, the 9/11 mandate has all but dissipated; there is little doubt that the operation is a front for continued US military presence in the region, regardless of any overt labels. As long as Russia feels that the US presence is aimed primarily at China and Iran, they will cooperate. The question is when/whether they will get anxious about US influence in the CARs, especially since the NDN would go through '-stans' that Russia considers off-limit for the US.

 

[pmukherjee]

There is no question that Russia sees itself as part of Europe, not Asia. Culturally, ethnically and historically, they have much more in common with Eastern Europe than Central Asia. However, they are clinging to the memory of their old greatness and consider Central Asia to be off-limits to others. The relationship with China is also complex; partly going on Cold War momentum, tempered by a wariness of China's own rise.

Europe, for its part, is resentful of America's dominance and the EU is an attempt to assert French/German influence. Going forward, it is much more likely that continental Europe will move away from US and towards Russia. Russian nationalism pines for the old glory days, but there is no chance of regaining the former status. The most they can achieve now is to be a senior partner in a European alliance.

So, they all have their common interests as well as their own agendas. As far as NATO in Afghanistan, the 9/11 mandate has all but dissipated; there is little doubt that the operation is a front for continued US military presence in the region, regardless of any overt labels. As long as Russia feels that the US presence is aimed primarily at China and Iran, they will cooperate. The question is when/whether they will get anxious about US influence in the CARs, especially since the NDN would go through '-stans' that Russia considers off-limit for the US.

Yes, you are generally on the right lines, however, a few points for consideration.

Putin and others of the old guard undoubtedly cherish memories of former greatness. Let another generation pass and Russia will be more comfortable in its own skin. This of course does not mean that Russia will forego its hold on the CAR and East Europe. They wont. This desire to have vast acreages of buffer land between Mother Russia and the 'dangerous' outside world is an indisputable part of the Russian psyche since Peter the Great. The scavenging hordes of horseback invaders from central and west Asia maybe long gone but tremendous reserves of oil and gas have replaced them. Most of these former Soviet republics are so poor and under developed that they will continue to depend on Russia. Russia always believed in the policy of settling down large number of ethnic Russians in the peripheries, this has been the practice since the inception of the Russian Empire some 400 years ago. There are therefore a very large number of ethnic Russians who have been living in Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan etc for hundreds of years and are thoroughly integrated into the local atmosphere. These people help create an environment that is generally Russia friendly. So Russia will continue to exercise influence over these areas for some decades to come.

Yes Russia is wary of China just as China is wary of Russia. If you search deep, you will discover that an overwhelmingly large chunk of the Chinese armed forces is deployed on the Russian borders while the next big chunk is opposite Taiwan. Against India, actually China has only a small part of its PLA deployed. The reason why we are worried about the communication upgradation in Tibet is that it permits the Chinese to side step large forces in a very short time span from the Russian borders to Indian borders.
There are large tracts of land still under Russian possession which were annexed in the last century or so which China believes to be its. Remember, despite China's rise and its leadership of the SCO, the CAR is largely a Russian sphere of influence and Russia wants to keep it that way.

The primary objective of residual US presence in Afghanistan is China and not Iran. Conflicting ideological differences will ensure that Iran's influence in Afghanistan will remain limited. Pakistani and Saudi influence will ensure that. Yes Afghanistan does give fresh options to the US to mount an attack on Iran, but these are not essential as THE US already has Iraq, Turkey etc.

On the whole I feel that the US is seriously winding down its efforts in west Asia. The US has to concentrate all its energies against the Chinese in the Indo Pacific where it will be fighting for its survival in another 3 to 5 decades. It however does not wish that China moves into the Afghanistan vacuum riding piggy back on Pakistan and neither does Russia want this to happen.

In the coming decade we may witness the west accepting Iran as a de facto nuclear weapon state. I think that people are busy right now working out the possible permutations and combinations for a nuclear Iran. I doubt that India will oppose this too vehemently when that happens. However an understanding between SA, Turkey, Israel, Iraq, Russia, Europe, US etc has to be reached. The negotiations to this end are to my mind, going on as we speak.

Coming on to the EU. Yes, it came about as a competing economic entity to the US domination. But if you have been reading between the lines lately, the US is wholehearted supporting the EU now. The US considers the EU an important tool to prevent Europe falling into the Chinese sphere of influence, nation by weakened nation. The US will be able to exercise sufficient influence over the EU to steer it clear of the Chinese, but left to themselves, individual countries may be motivated to float away in lieu of financial assistance from China. The EU is fighting a battle for survival now.

 

[KS]

.....

The US considers the EC an important tool to prevent Europe falling into the Chinese sphere of influence, nation by weakened nation. The US will be able to exercise sufficient influence over the EU to steer it clear of the Chinese, but left to themselves, individual countries may be motivated to float away in lieu of financial assistance from China. The EU is fighting a battle for survival now.

I don't think anybody should worry about EU falling into Chinese hands as the one's in crisis are not the ones that are considered the two most important pillars of EU(France & Germany) . They are still going strong and the only two nations of significant influence that are reeling under the economic crisis are Spain and Italy. Greece is nothing but a featherweight. Given the right choices, there is every chance of Spain & Italy recovering and I guess irrespective of how the EU fares, there is going to be a culling of deadweights like Greece, Ireland etc in the near future

 

[Pioneerfirst]

USA, India and Russia need to join hands to kill all the terrorists and destroy their supporters, network forever.

they are already doing this,but failing

 

[pmukherjee]

I don't think anybody should worry about EU falling into Chinese hands as the one's in crisis are not the ones that are considered the two most important pillars of EU(France & Germany) . They are still going strong and the only two nations of significant influence that are reeling under the economic crisis are Spain and Italy. Greece is nothing but a featherweight. Given the right choices, there is every chance of Spain & Italy recovering and I guess irrespective of how the EU fares, there is going to be a culling of deadweights like Greece, Ireland etc in the near future

Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and counting. Three of these are member nations of NATO. Do not forget the influence China already enjoys in smaller powers like Albania, Croatia, Czech Rep, Hungary, Slovenia etc all of which are NATO members. That is why I said the US supports the EU as if the EU collapses then many of the member nations will drift away to the Chinese sphere of influence.

 

[sohailbarki]

Russians did not ask you to trust them. They made very few if any, friendly gestures to you. You make it sound like they broke some kind of pact with pakistanis.

Mister why you Americans are begging Pakistan to open route for them, america will not survive in the region without pakistan support.

 

[hawx]

Yes, you are generally on the right lines, however, a few points for consideration.

Putin and others of the old guard undoubtedly cherish memories of former greatness. Let another generation pass and Russia will be more comfortable in its own skin. This of course does not mean that Russia will forego its hold on the CAR and East Europe. They wont. This desire to have vast acreages of buffer land between Mother Russia and the 'dangerous' outside world is an indisputable part of the Russian psyche since Peter the Great. The scavenging hordes of horseback invaders from central and west Asia maybe long gone but tremendous reserves of oil and gas have replaced them. Most of these former Soviet republics are so poor and under developed that they will continue to depend on Russia. Russia always believed in the policy of settling down large number of ethnic Russians in the peripheries, this has been the practice since the inception of the Russian Empire some 400 years ago. There are therefore a very large number of ethnic Russians who have been living in Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan etc for hundreds of years and are thoroughly integrated into the local atmosphere. These people help create an environment that is generally Russia friendly. So Russia will continue to exercise influence over these areas for some decades to come.

Yes Russia is wary of China just as China is wary of Russia. If you search deep, you will discover that an overwhelmingly large chunk of the Chinese armed forces is deployed on the Russian borders while the next big chunk is opposite Taiwan. Against India, actually China has only a small part of its PLA deployed. The reason why we are worried about the communication upgradation in Tibet is that it permits the Chinese to side step large forces in a very short time span from the Russian borders to Indian borders.
There are large tracts of land still under Russian possession which were annexed in the last century or so which China believes to be its. Remember, despite China's rise and its leadership of the SCO, the CAR is largely a Russian sphere of influence and Russia wants to keep it that way.

The primary objective of residual US presence in Afghanistan is China and not Iran. Conflicting ideological differences will ensure that Iran's influence in Afghanistan will remain limited. Pakistani and Saudi influence will ensure that. Yes Afghanistan does give fresh options to the US to mount an attack on Iran, but these are not essential as THE US already has Iraq, Turkey etc.

On the whole I feel that the US is seriously winding down its efforts in west Asia. The US has to concentrate all its energies against the Chinese in the Indo Pacific where it will be fighting for its survival in another 3 to 5 decades. It however does not wish that China moves into the Afghanistan vacuum riding piggy back on Pakistan and neither does Russia want this to happen.

In the coming decade we may witness the west accepting Iran as a de facto nuclear weapon state. I think that people are busy right now working out the possible permutations and combinations for a nuclear Iran. I doubt that India will oppose this too vehemently when that happens. However an understanding between SA, Turkey, Israel, Iraq, Russia, Europe, US etc has to be reached. The negotiations to this end are to my mind, going on as we speak.

Coming on to the EU. Yes, it came about as a competing economic entity to the US domination. But if you have been reading between the lines lately, the US is wholehearted supporting the EU now. The US considers the EU an important tool to prevent Europe falling into the Chinese sphere of influence, nation by weakened nation. The US will be able to exercise sufficient influence over the EU to steer it clear of the Chinese, but left to themselves, individual countries may be motivated to float away in lieu of financial assistance from China. The EU is fighting a battle for survival now.

Are you a writer or something ? man u can write long posts.

 

[harpoon]

Mister why you Americans are begging Pakistan to open route for them, america will not survive in the region without pakistan support.

Then why are you not using this to your advantage?

 

[T90TankGuy]

bow to the west, what a coward nation.

anyway, never trust Russians, as always being said.

right never trust the Russians ,US Saudis, Israel . India , the rest of the world . except china.

---------- Post added at 02:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:55 PM ----------

Mister why you Americans are begging Pakistan to open route for them, america will not survive in the region without pakistan support.

i doubt Pakistan would be able to survive without the US IMF and world bank (financially speaking) so don't make your self out to be the saviors.

 

[Imran Khan]

heh heh.. and a lot of Pakistanis were dreaming up a strategic alliance of Russia, China and Pakistan against USA

same like many dreaming abut akhand bharat?

 

[karan.1970]

same like many dreaming abut akhand bharat?

Yeah.. We have our equal share of unrealistic people

 

[Imran Khan]

Yeah.. We have our equal share of unrealistic people

thats what my point was we have massive populations and so many lost there brains

 

[pmukherjee]

Are you a writer or something ? man u can write long posts.

No buddy, I am not a writer. I was merely replying to another member and presenting my thoughts in what I thought was a worthwhile debate. Sadly, the said member abandoned the debate and so now I too shall.