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Russia may put missiles in Kaliningrad if US upgrades nuclear arms in Germany: Report

Boiky and Stoiky Corvettes return to baltiysk
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https://sputniknews.com/russia/201703021051189449-baltic-fleet-drills/
According to fleet's press service, more than 10 warships and supply vessels of the Baltic Fleet have left their bases to participate in the military exercises to work out antisubmarine and air defense.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) – More than 10 warships and supply vessels of the Baltic Fleet have left their bases to participate in the military exercises to work out antisubmarine and air defense, the fleet's press service said in a statement on Thursday.

"Today more than 10 warships, motor boats and supply vessels of the Baltic Fleet have left their permanent bases and went to the assigned area of the Baltic Sea to carry out military exercises within the framework of the training plan," the statement said.

The statement added that the ships of the fleet would train antisubmarine and air defense and would conduct gun practice.

According to the statement, minesweepers as well as missile vessels participate in the exercises.
 
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March 03, 2017

12:08
BERLIN CONCERNED BY PLACEMENT OF ISKANDER-M MISSILES IN KALININGRAD, WILL NOT TAKE UNILATERAL RESPONSE STEPS, BUT WILL COORDINATE RESPONSE THROUGH NATO - GERMAN GOVT COMMISSIONER
 
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14:45 28.03.2017

https://sputniknews.com/politics/201703281052038675-russia-iskander-nato-threat/

The North Atlantic Alliance has drastically increased its military presence in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, using non-existent threats as a pretext, defense analyst Mikhail Khodarenok told Radio Sputnik.

"NATO maintains that [its military buildup] stems from the 'threat' emanating from Russia, something which exists only in the fevered brains of leaders in certain European nations. All recent events serve as a testament to the fact that these officials are looking for security threats to their countries and NATO in the wrong place. This is not where [security challenges] will come from. But they still don't understand this, trying instead to label Russia's deployment of Iskander systems [to Kaliningrad] as a security threat," he explained.

Moscow deployed the Iskander-M mobile short-range ballistic missile system to Kaliningrad, its exclave on the Baltic Sea, in October. The move came in response to NATO's decision to send four multinational battle groups and additional military hardware to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. High-ranking Russian officials have also cited a US-built missile defense system in Europe as a major concern.

The issue is expected to be raised at the upcoming meeting of the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) scheduled to take place March 30. However, Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's European Cooperation Department Andrei Kelin told Sputnik on Sunday that the Russian delegation will not provide a report on the matter to the bloc's representatives.

Khodarenok shared these sentiments, saying that Moscow is not supposed to provide any comments on military deployments taking place on Russian territory.

"The Iskander systems are not covered by any arms control treaties. Kaliningrad is Russian territory. If a particular weapons system is not subject to any international agreements, then we are not obligated to inform NATO or any other organizations," he said.

Moscow's relations with NATO have gone into a deep freeze following the coup in Ukraine and Crimea's peaceful and democratic reunification with Russia. The bloc has blamed Moscow for what has happened in the neighboring country. Russian officials have repeatedly dismissed such claims as groundless, making every effort to resolve the Ukrainian crisis.

Latest developments indicate that the bilateral relationship appears to be improving.

On March 3, General Petr Pavel, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, called Army General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, to discuss security issues, the potential restoration of military cooperation, measures aimed at incident prevention, as well as participation of NATO representatives in international activities held by the Russian Defense Ministry. This was the first high-level military contact between Russian and NATO military officials since April 2014.

The upcoming meeting of the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) is also part of this trend. Khodarenok expressed hope that the meeting would help improve relations between Russia and NATO.

"The relationship should be fostered. We need to take bilateral interests and concerns into account if they are reasonable," he said. "In fact, we have no other option than to mend the ties."
 
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https://www.unian.info/war/1856299-...ia-getting-ready-to-invade-ukraine-again.html

Recent Russian actions suggest a new stage of the Russian threat to Ukraine — and potentially to the Caucasus, Belarus, or the Baltic States as well — that could presage a new large-scale military operation, according to the Atlantic Council.


First, in 2016, Russia created twenty-five division formations and fifteen brigades, while raising manpower by only 10,000 men. This suggests the possibility that Russia may aim to wage protracted large-scale war using the Soviet model, with a Soviet-type army composed of "skeleton units" that existed solely on paper until they were called up as part of the process of mass mobilization. That such mobilization may be under consideration is apparent from the Kavkaz-2016 and other military exercises in 2016 where Moscow mobilized forces from the Ministry of Interior, banks to pay soldiers' wages in the fields, and hospitals to provide field hospitals, as well as entire provincial civilian administrations. Russia is apparently thinking about possible protracted contingencies, and is returning to fantasies of a Soviet-type military and mobilization effort, Stephen Blank, a Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council, wrote in an article titled "Is Russia Getting Ready to Invade Ukraine Again?" published March 30, 2017.


Second, as part of that military process in 2016-2017, Moscow created the 1st Guards Tank Army, the 40th Army, and the 8th Army, and deployed them all around Ukraine's borders. The 8th Army headquarters is at Rostov-On-Don, from where it could strike toward the Caucasus if necessary, or be air or sealifted to the Middle East. Moreover, any of these armies could quickly be moved toward Belarus to put down unrest there, if Belarus' government cannot or will not do so. In addition, Russia has created four new divisions: the 150th Motorized Rifle Division in the Rostov region, the 10th Armored Division and the 3rd Mechanized Division in the Voronezh region, and the 144th Motorized Rifle Division near Smolensk. They will be headquartered fifty, forty-five, and 255 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, respectively. In addition, the headquarters of the Russian 20th Army has been moved closer to Ukraine, from its former base east of Moscow to Voronezh. And three motorized rifle brigades that were previously located deep inside Russian territory, near Kazakhstan and in the Volga Basin, are also being shifted westward. They will be based in the Belgorod, Bryansk, and Voronezh regions, all less than fifty kilometers from the Ukrainian border.


More recent deployments are even more ominous. On March 8, Moscow announced that the Russian Navy would prioritize ships capable of carrying troops that can perform amphibious operations, which could easily be used against Ukraine, the Balkans, the Caucasus, or in the Middle East. On the weekend of March 24, observers recorded dozens of tanks deploying at Pokrovskoye in the southern Rostov-On-the Don region near Ukraine. At the same time, Russia deployed airborne forces (VDV) to Belarus, making it impossible for Ukraine to reroute forces from its north to its threatened southern frontier around Mariupol. And those VDV forces also clearly threaten an invasion of Belarus.

Cyber strikes are also continuing. Ukraine's government estimates that in November and December 2016, Russia staged 6,500 cyberattacks against various Ukrainian institutions, including the defense and finance ministries and the treasury. Hackers also targeted Kyiv's power grid, which resulted in a blackout in parts of the capital. In fact, the first known power outage as a result of a cyberattack occurred one year before that, when Russian hackers took down the power grid in western Ukraine in December 2015.

There has also been a steady escalation in the number and size of Russian forces' ceasefire violations since the beginning of 2017. During March 12-20 alone, there were 336 attacks that killed nine Ukrainian soldiers and wounded thirty-five. And on March 23, former Russian Duma member Denis Voronenkov was murdered in broad daylight in Kyiv and the Kharkiv munitions plant exploded, suggesting a return to state-sponsored terrorist attacks in Ukraine.

All of these actions, taken with the impending August/September Zapad-2017 exercise in Belarus, give rise to fears of a new intervention either in Ukraine, Belarus, or even the Caucasus, based on recent Russian deployments and actions. Moreover, Putin's domestic room for maneuver has narrowed and economic reform or growth is unlikely. In addition, the army is experiencing manpower shortages and the Russian defense budget has probably reached the limits of its present capacity. It is possible that Putin feels pressed to strike sooner rather than later, especially if he wants to create a cause that justifies large-scale mobilization in advance of the 2018 elections, where he will emphasize Russia's superpower status. It is likely that a period of maximum danger to Ukraine, Belarus, or the Caucasus is approaching.
 
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https://sputniknews.com/military/201704031052230366-russia-lithuania-threat/

The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense has produced another bogeyman story about the "Russian threat".
VILNIUS (Sputnik) — The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense says Russia may be able to attack Lithuania with 24-48-hour notice and considers Russian-Belarusian 2017 joint drills as an additional security threat to the Baltic nation, the ministry and its State Security Department said Monday in a report.

"Currently, Russia is capable to conduct combat activities against the Baltic States with 24-48 hrs notice," the report read.

The report also focused on joint Russian-Belarusian exercise Zapad-2017 scheduled for September this year.

"A real number of exercise participants will highly likely exceed the officially stated numbers and the exercise scenario will simulate an armed conflict with NATO. Some of the exercise training ranges will be very close to Lithuanian border, therefore a possibility of deliberate or accidental incidents should not be ruled out," the report said.

The report also named Russia as "a major source of threats posed to the national security of the Republic of Lithuania" in its summary, adding that "throughout 2016, intelligence services of Russia as well as closely cooperating services of Belarus have continued their active and aggressive activity against Lithuania."

NATO forces are deployed in Lithuania and several other countries of Eastern Europe, which has prompted Moscow to repeatedly express concern over the military build-up close to Russian borders.

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https://sputniknews.com/military/201704031052230895-belarus-lithuania-russia-drills-attack/

MINSK (Sputnik) — Earlier in the day, the Lithuanian Defense Ministry and its State Security Department said in a report that Russia could be able to attack Lithuania with a 24-48-hour notice while Moscow and Minsk's joint drills in 2017 posed a serious security threat.

"The ministry does not comment on speculations," Makarov said of the Lithuanian report.

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12:48
Russian Baltic Fleet unit to drill in Northern Atlantic

S-400 Triumf air defence missile systems
© Vitaly Nevar/TASS

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A soldier of the Russian Baltic Fleet's air defence unit during a military training involving S-400 Triumf air defence missile systems
© Vitaly Nevar/TASS

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A training exercise by the Russian Baltic Fleet's air defence unit involving Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft systems
© Vitaly Nevar/TASS

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Pantsir-S air defense missile system
© Sergei Bobylev/Russian Defence Ministry Press Office/TASS

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http://www.businessinsider.com/esto...nsifying-russia-spy-activity-in-europe-2017-4

According to Estonia's national intelligence service, Russia, acting through its military intelligence agency, the GRU, and its Federal Security Service, or FSB, has taken a special interest in the foreign and security policies, defense planning, armed forces, arms development, and military capabilities of its neighbors.

"The Russian special services are interested in both the collection of information and in influencing decisions important for Estonia," the report states.

"The Russian intelligence and security services conduct anti-Estonian influence operations, including psychological operations — in other words, influencing the defence forces and the general population of a potential enemy."

Underscoring what Estonia sees as the more pronounced Russian threat was the country's recent apprehension of its first alleged spy tied to the GRU. The person, a Russian citizen, was arrested in January and could face 10 years in prison if convicted.

That arrest comes after Estonia detained two people with dual Estonian-Russian citizenship last year who it said had been recruited by the FSB to spy on military and law-enforcement activity. They were both convicted. Two other FSB recruits were reportedly captured in 2015.

"Besides this type of conspired secret activity, the Internal Security Service and its partner agencies have detected photographing and filming of defence structures and military exercises and the flying of drones above Defence Force structures or during exercises by persons whose intentions were not benevolent," Estonia's intelligence services said in its annual report. "Considering the security situation, such incidents can be expected to recur."

According to the report, the recent deployment of NATO forces to Eastern Europe — including UK and Canadian units to Estonia — "was met with an aggressive reaction by the Russian media and politicians, and ... an aggressive propaganda campaign was launched attributing the North Atlantic alliance with bad intentions toward Russia."

Estonia is only the most recent Eastern Europe country to raise concern about Russian activity.

According to Estonia's report, security services in the Czech Republic, Germany, and Sweden, among others, have noted "an increased intensity of Russian intelligence operations."

Earlier this month, defense officials in Lithuania, which borders Russia's Baltic semi-exclave Kaliningrad, said they were "taking very seriously" Russia-organized propaganda efforts to undermine stability in the Baltics.

The country's defense minister said Lithuania's security services were seeing what they called propaganda efforts in the style of what occurred in Ukraine prior to Russia's annexation of Crimea.

"Russia is a threat," Lithuanian Defense Minister Raimundas Karoblis told The Guardian. "There are real parallels with Crimea's annexation [from Ukraine] ... We are speaking of a danger to the territorial integrity of Lithuania."

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NATO military training at Ādaži Military Base in Latvia. NATO

In February, British intelligence said Moscow was involved in a plot to assassinate the pro-Western prime minister of Montenegro and undermine the Balkan country's effort to join NATO.

A special Montenegrin prosecutor appointed to investigate the election-day plot said there was "evidence that Russian nationalist structures were behind [the plot], but now also that Russian state bodies were involved at a certain level."

British and US intelligence agencies asked to aid Montenegro in its investigation have gathered evidence of high-level Russian involvement, according to The Telegraph. Interpol has issued wanted notices for two Russians who Montenegro alleges are GRU officers who oversaw the plot's planning.

A spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin called the allegations "absurd" and insisted Moscow does "not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, including Montenegro."
 
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