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Russia and China Sign 10-Year US$80 Billion Oil Supply Agreement

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Russia and China Sign 10-Year US$80 Billion Oil Supply Agreement

February 16, 2022Posted by Russia Briefing

Rosneft and Gazprom both sign valuable oil and gas energy contracts with Beijing

Russia’s state-owned oil company Rosneft has signed a US$80 billion 10-year deal to supply China’s National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) with 100 million metric tonnes of oil, or about 200,000 barrels a day.

According to official state announcements, the oil will be shipped via Kazakhstan to refining plants in China’s Xinjiang Province, together with other exports of Russian crude oil to China.

According to Russia’s pipeline operator Transneft, Russian crude shipments via pipelines to China last year were 40 million metric tonnes – or about 800,000 barrels per day. The new agreement will not affect the 80 million metric tonnes per annum – 1.6 million barrels per day sent via a combination of the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline that moves oil directly to China, as well as from Russia’s Kozmino Port in the Russian Far East near the border with China.

China has also been negotiating with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) over supplies from the Middle East and is working towards a Free Trade Agreement. The same is true of Russia, where China signed of a Free Trade Agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union in 2018, but where tariff reductions are yet to be agreed. China has also signed a 25-year cooperation agreement with Iran, with Russia also shortly to follow with a similar deal.

Rosneft is also a primary driver of the Northern Sea Passage which provides an Arctic Ocean route for delivery of oil and gas to China and as far away as India, where the first LNG shipments were sent using loans from the Silk Road Fund in early 2018. The Northern Sea Passage also continues West to Europe. Rosneft are building a huge facility at Siberia’s Taymyr peninsula, with the complete project costing US$135 billion, including two airports and fifteen ‘industry towns.’ Rosneft’s Arctic developments will eventually produce 100 million tonnes of oil per year, with 30 million tonnes of oil being sent from the Arctic along the Northern Sea Passage from 2022 to 2024 alone.

It is not the only major Russia-China energy deal to have been announced. Russia’s State Gas giant Gazprom signed a 10 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/y) deal last week to supply gas to CNPC, adding to another supply contract between the two companies signed in 2014 – a 30-year deal for 38 bcm per year to go from Russia to China. This is part of the ‘Power of Siberia’ pipeline project – managed on the Russian side by Gazprom and on the China side by CNPC – that was launched in December 2019 and sees gas arrive by pipelines from Kazakhstan and across China’s LNG network to supply housewives with gas for cooking as far east as Shanghai.

Gazprom is also developing ‘Power of Siberia 2’ – with shipments to China via Mongolia – that will increase gas supply to China by an additional 50 bcm per year.

This adds to the 50.5% increase year-on-year (year-on-year) in 2021 of Russia gas exports to China, with the volume being delivered by pipeline during 2021 increasing by 154.2% year-on-year to 7.54 million metric tonnes, according to January 2022 data from China’s General Administration of Customs.

The question to ask is why is the EU so concerned about the sustainability of Russian gas supplies, when Beijing – a far larger market with a population three times bigger – apparently isn’t? The answer is that with China no longer in the market for US oil and gas supplies, Washington needs to find export clients – with the Ukraine exercise an attempt to push Russia into an incursion with the US then able to justify sanctions – and the termination of the Russia-EU Nordstream2 project.

 

Russia ready to re-route energy flows if hit by new sanctions

By Darya Korsunskaya
and Katya Golubkova
February 16, 2022

KLIKJ3CJ6FKOPLYB65OZA4IWVY.jpg

A view shows pipelines near a gas processing facility, operated by Gazprom company, at Bovanenkovo gas field on the Arctic Yamal peninsula, Russia May 21, 2019. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo

  • Europe gets some 40% of gas, 26% of oil needs from Russia
  • Russia has signed new oil, gas supply deals with China
  • Biden warns of 'export curbs' if Russia invades Ukraine
  • Russia denies it has any plans to invade Ukraine
MOSCOW, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Russia would be ready to re-route supplies to other markets should new Western sanctions target its energy sector, finance minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday.

Siluanov did not say how Moscow would divert its energy exports but said that Russia's foreign exchange reserves, National Wealth Fund and a budget surplus should shield its economy and banks from any possible sanctions hit.

The United States and its allies are considering new sanctions including against Russia's largest banks, economy and energy sector, with export controls possible, in the event that Moscow invades its neighbour Ukraine.

The Kremlin denies it has any such intention.

"Any export curbs would result in rising prices. And if such restrictions are to be applied then increases in prices should largely offset such curbs," Siluanov told reporters, as Russia's budget is highly dependent on energy sales both to European Union member states and Asia countries.


INFLATION IMPACT

Russian imports account for 46% of Europe's solid fuels such as coal, 26% of its crude oil and 38% of the region's gas, Moody's research estimates, pointing out that even a brief cut in gas supply would further boost energy prices and inflation.

"An intensification of inflationary pressures could also increase pressure on the European Central Bank and other central banks to tighten monetary policy," Moody's said.

Eurozone inflation hit a record 5.1% in January, fuelling expectations that the ECB would have to end its bond buying scheme and raise interest rates for the first time since mid-2011.

Russia's options to re-route pipeline gas from Europe, which is supplied via routes not connected with Asian markets, are limited. But traders say Moscow may have greater flexibility with oil exports of which around a half, or some 2 million barrels per day (bpd), are delivered to Europe by the sea.

This month, Russia agreed to sell an additional 10 billion cubic metres of gas to China annually later this decade, equal to 5% of Moscow's current exports to Europe, and on par with the volumes Gazprom shipped to Beijing last year.

China consumes some 1.5 million bpd of Russian oil, or a fifth of total Moscow's exports, which are shipped both via pipelines and ports, to be increased by another 200,000 bpd thanks to the recent Rosneft (ROSN.MM) deal.

 
If you have OIL and GAS...everyone wants to be your friend...New reality of Human dependence on fossil fuel for the next 50 years....China is smart to admit the issue and prepare for it..:azn:
 
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