Russia Admits Defeat, Says It’ll Launch Cosmonauts on SpaceX Spacecraft

[FairAndUnbiased]

The SpaceX Starship + Superheavy stack is going to be tested in an orbital flight next month if permission from the American flight authority is there. And from this article from April 2021 :

The Starship can potentially carry 100 people though of course for flight to Mars and landing there maybe that number will be actually much less given the arrangement for food, water, bathrooms, radiation shelter etc.

I've talked about this before.

Before you can launch a manned Mars mission you must validate all systems. That means:

1. You must have a satellite that can reach Mars, orbit it, then return to Earth. Never done in all of history.
2. You must have a satellite that can reach Mars, deploy a lander, retrieve at least a sample, then return to Earth. Never done in all of history.
3. You must have a continuously inhabited spacecraft in orbit that does not receive resupply for at least 12 months. Never done in all of history.
4. You must have a manned Mars orbiter that can return to Earth. Never done in all of history.
5. Only then can you actually even attempt a landing. Otherwise, if anything goes wrong, everyone dies.

The launch window for new missions is now closed. It does not open again until September 2022. You need at least 3 missions to validate the return capability, the sample retrieval and human safety for 12 months in Earth orbit without resupply - at minimum.

The minimum time it will take to reach Mars is 5 launch windows away (10 years) from the first launch of the validation missions. Each one of these validation missions will be, in and of themselves, gigantic and historical breakthroughs. Even if a retrievable Mars orbiter is ready to launch in September 2022, it won't arrive until June 2023. You have to watch it for a bit. Then it has to wait for the next launch window in late 2024 to return. That puts you at August/September 2025 at minimum to simply validate if a probe can reach Mars and return safely. Then the next launch window is 2026.

It is physically impossible.

 

[jamahir]

I've talked about this before.

Ah yes, you are that defeatist from a few days ago.

Before you can launch a manned Mars mission you must validate all systems. That means:

1. You must have a satellite that can reach Mars, orbit it, then return to Earth. Never done in all of history.

2. You must have a satellite that can reach Mars, deploy a lander, retrieve at least a sample, then return to Earth. Never done in all of history.

If you go through the linked article in that quoted section there is this :

“We want to send an uncrewed vehicle there in two years.”

Now I don't know if the Starship that will land on Mars will have fuel to get to Mars orbit again let alone get back to Earth. But maybe it may have enough fuel to get off Mars' lower gravity back to Mars orbit. And maybe the flight from Earth to Mars will test things like life support system, the craft control computers and of course any food storage and food growth. This will be an important learning for the next planned mission which will be a crewed one in a few years time which may be 2026 or 2028.

And I had previously told you about newer in-space propulsion methods. SpaceX has a history of accelerating spacecraft forms - from Dragon v2 which can carry seven people to now Starship which can carry 100 to at least LEO ; from the Falcon Heavy now to the Super Heavy. Maybe by 2026 or 2028 SpaceX will choose a non-chemical, faster method of travel to Mars, methods are currently under development or research, like MEGA drive. Who knows ?

 

[Beast]

Landing humans on Mars is not meaningful ? The science that the rovers do now can be amplified by landing human geologists and biologists.



There is a project about an American private space station.

And why do you mention Israel ?

Becos Israel like India want to conquer Moon but end up badly with crashed rover.

Its not so easy to land something on Moon and Mars.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

It is physically impossible.

Again the fatalistic mentality of the Chinese psyche on display.

For the problems you described all it takes is to master inflight cargo transfer and refueling in space (which is already planned) and the problems you described can easily be surmounted.

SpaceX will build multiple Starships and send some of them ahead of the manned one full of fuel to both park themselves in orbit and land at some predetermined site. These ships will basically combine the remaining fuel they have into depots.

During the manned mission another group will be sent with extra food/water and fuel. The food/water supply requirement is well known since the ISS has been doing it for 20 years.

Now you are going to say "how do they plan on getting all this fuel into orbit?"

That's the whole purpose of the large reusable Starship. It will fly back and forth into orbit multiple times filling up in-orbit fueling depots which will be sent to Mars. Why do you think they are obsessed with making the Starship as light and simple as they can get?

 

[gambit]

Again the fatalistic mentality of the Chinese psyche on display.

Naaahh...I call it lack of creativity. Considering how much China had to emulate US in multiple fields, being creative in solving problems where none tried before is something new. For these guys here, 'No' is the best word they got.

 

[baqai]

NASA also accepts defeat by using Space-X ?

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Naaahh...I call it lack of creativity.

I think any 8 year old kid who enjoys SciFi can think out all the problems he described in a few seconds. A lot of the things we have today originated in the creative minds of SciFi writers (lasers, wireless phone, computers, robots, flat touch screens, etc)

While nobody knows exactly what SpaceX's plan entails we can certainly see if their current methodology is lining up with what we would see as the obvious solution..and so far it is.

NASA also accepts defeat by using Space-X ?

Not with the Dragon since they helped fund it..but some openly are in terms of their impressive rocket designs.

NASA Employee Says SpaceX's Starship Is About to Change Everything

"Starship matters."

futurism.com

When the SLS is canceled due to the Starship's success they will most certainly admit defeat.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Again the fatalistic mentality of the Chinese psyche on display.

For the problems you described all it takes is to master inflight cargo transfer and refueling in space (which is already planned) and the problems you described can easily be surmounted.

SpaceX will build multiple Starships and send some of them ahead of the manned one full of fuel to both park themselves in orbit and land at some predetermined site. These ships will basically combine the remaining fuel they have into depots.

View attachment 788846

During the manned mission another group will be sent with extra food/water and fuel. The food/water supply requirement is well known since the ISS has been doing it for 20 years.

Now you are going to say "how do they plan on getting all this fuel into orbit?"

That's the whole purpose of the large reusable Starship. It will fly back and forth into orbit multiple times filling up in-orbit fueling depots which will be sent to Mars. Why do you think they are obsessed with making the Starship as light and simple as they can get?

It can't be done by 2026. It is the simple fact that before you retrieve people from Mars you need to do simpler things first: return the vehicle from Mars under it's own power, prove people can stay in space without resupply and retrieve a sample. If these can't be done then sending people is extremely risky.

An 8 year old that likes sci-fi would think of course we can go to Mars. someone who had actually managed projects and knows how bureaucracies work on the other hand?

That's a minimum of 3 missions, 4 if you follow the Apollo model and have a manned orbiter first. There aren't even enough launch windows to launch 3 missions before 2026.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Ah yes, you are that defeatist from a few days ago.



If you go through the linked article in that quoted section there is this :

Now I don't know if the Starship that will land on Mars will have fuel to get to Mars orbit again let alone get back to Earth. But maybe it may have enough fuel to get off Mars' lower gravity back to Mars orbit. And maybe the flight from Earth to Mars will test things like life support system, the craft control computers and of course any food storage and food growth. This will be an important learning for the next planned mission which will be a crewed one in a few years time which may be 2026 or 2028.

And I had previously told you about newer in-space propulsion methods. SpaceX has a history of accelerating spacecraft forms - from Dragon v2 which can carry seven people to now Starship which can carry 100 to at least LEO ; from the Falcon Heavy now to the Super Heavy. Maybe by 2026 or 2028 SpaceX will choose a non-chemical, faster method of travel to Mars, methods are currently under development or research, like MEGA drive. Who knows ?

Lmao do you know the timeline for Mars projects don't go by willpower or even money spent but by cold hard numbers like launch windows?

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

It can't be done by 2026. It is the simple fact that before you retrieve people from Mars you need to do simpler things first: return the vehicle from Mars under it's own power, prove people can stay in space without resupply and retrieve a sample. If these can't be done then sending people is extremely risky.

An 8 year old that likes sci-fi would think of course we can go to Mars. someone who had actually managed projects and knows how bureaucracies work on the other hand?

That's a minimum of 3 missions, 4 if you follow the Apollo model and have a manned orbiter first. There aren't even enough launch windows to launch 3 missions before 2026.

Are you now strictly enforcing a 2026 timelimit as a 6th criteria in your definition of what needs to be solved for a manned mission to Mars in addition to the 5 you listed? Even Elon Musk said 2026 is the earliest for a manned mission. 2024 earliest for unmanned. So sure anything can happen to blow that 2026 timeline but the methodology does not sound impossible.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Are you now strictly enforcing a 2026 timelimit as a 6th criteria in your definition of what is possible for a manned mission in addition to the 5 you listed? Even Elon Musk said 2026 is the earliest for a manned mission. 2024 earliest for unmanned.

View attachment 788923

2026 as earliest is a funny phrasing, it means that it can be delayed indefinitely and still will be technically true, but highly misleading.

 

[jamahir]

An 8 year old that likes sci-fi would think of course we can go to Mars. someone who had actually managed projects and knows how bureaucracies work on the other hand?

Your compatriot, @serenity, was also being arrogant with me by saying that he had handled some projects in some MNC which had 100,000 workers, therefore he automatically had superior knowledge to me in computing, politics and socio-economics and thus my ideas were nonsense. Why are the Chinese on PDF so arrogant and unthinking ? They don't have the gentleness and empathy of a cat. As a Malaysian or Indonesian member had told me, the Chinese here don't have grace.

Lmao do you know the timeline for Mars projects don't go by willpower or even money spent but by cold hard numbers like launch windows?

1. I have mentioned the launch windows by quoting the 2026 and 2028 numbers.

2. AFAIK the "launch windows" exist presently because of the inability of chemical propulsion rockets to go very fast between say Earth and Mars. If very fast modes of in-space propulsion like MEGA drive are used then ( and MEGA drive can supposedly do interstellar travel within less half of a scientist's lifetime ) then the launch window system need not exist.

 

[serenity]

Your compatriot, @serenity, was also being arrogant with me by saying that he had handled some projects in some MNC which had 100,000 workers, therefore he automatically had superior knowledge to me in computing, politics and socio-economics and thus my ideas were nonsense. Why are the Chinese on PDF so arrogant and unthinking ? They don't have the gentleness and empathy of a cat. As a Malaysian or Indonesian member had told me, the Chinese here don't have grace.



1. I have mentioned the launch windows by quoting the 2026 and 2028 numbers.

2. AFAIK the "launch windows" exist presently because of the inability of chemical propulsion rockets to go very fast between say Earth and Mars. If very fast modes of in-space propulsion like MEGA drive are used then ( and MEGA drive can supposedly do interstellar travel within less half of a scientist's lifetime ) then the launch window system need not exist.

1. You are confusing me with someone else. I never said those things. Very Indian of you to make things up and make conclusions based on your own lies.

2. Many people here do have superior knowledge to you in computing. This is because your knowledge of computing is quite empty but you insist that your knowledge is infallible and all conclusions from your "infallible" knowledge must be right and cannot be disputed. Whenever another member disputes your grand proclamations, you attack them and their nationality as well. Some of us simply feed back your simple mindedness and racism back to you. When you are stupid and stubborn to others, expect them to be no better to you.

3. Very typical of Indians. Stupid, arrogant, full of shit. No grace, brains, or anything else of positive character. How is that for you? Just the laughing stock street shitting beggars of the world. Stop tagging me in your lies and stupidity you annoying shitstain. Your activity on this forum (average 3 hours per day every day) suggests you have nothing to do in your life except PDF trolling, stupidity, and propaganda. Ignoring you since all your posts are too stupid or annoying to respond to sometimes. Bye loser.

 

[jamahir]

2. Many people here do have superior knowledge to you in computing.

Yeah, those "many people" have designed a novel processor, a novel operating system and a novel storage method. Good people your company is.

Your activity on this forum (average 3 hours per day every day) suggests you have nothing to do in your life except PDF trolling, stupidity, and propaganda.

Sure, and you are too busy developing a base on Mars and forwarding the Libyan direct democracy political system called Jamahiriya and an evolved socio-economic system for human-wide adoption and whose ideas you have been posting on PDF.

Ignoring you since all your posts are too stupid or annoying to respond to sometimes. Bye loser.

OK, bye.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Your compatriot, @serenity, was also being arrogant with me by saying that he had handled some projects in some MNC which had 100,000 workers, therefore he automatically had superior knowledge to me in computing, politics and socio-economics and thus my ideas were nonsense. Why are the Chinese on PDF so arrogant and unthinking ? They don't have the gentleness and empathy of a cat. As a Malaysian or Indonesian member had told me, the Chinese here don't have grace.



1. I have mentioned the launch windows by quoting the 2026 and 2028 numbers.

2. AFAIK the "launch windows" exist presently because of the inability of chemical propulsion rockets to go very fast between say Earth and Mars. If very fast modes of in-space propulsion like MEGA drive are used then ( and MEGA drive can supposedly do interstellar travel within less half of a scientist's lifetime ) then the launch window system need not exist.

I never claimed to know more about computing, economics or politics than you. Notice how I never, ever questioned you on computing, economics or politics.

But I am confident I have more knowledge in physical science and engineering than you, and project management thereof. Spaceflight falls into this category.