Rejoinder to Shekhar Gupta’s National Interest column at The Print, Aug 21. Bypassing the Malacca Straits

[Champion_Usmani]

Editor ji believes in spreading positivity amidst the gloom and doom of the pandemic that has brought much misery to the land. However, the malady of “Mission Creep” has caught up with him. From lightening the gloom of pandemic, it now encompasses every calamity that dogs this land. In his latest column, he airily proclaims we should forget about Afghanistan, and turn our strategic gaze to the high seas.

India strategic thought has rather ignored the importance of trade and the high seas over the millennia. Not many know that it was the Arab sea traders, who took the Indus River from us, circa 700 BCE, financed largely by the profits from trade with us, in spices and horses. This was a good 600 years before the Ghaznis and Ghouris. In fact the unravelling of the Gupta empire can be traced to the loss of revenue to the Gupta treasury, from trade with Arabs.

Similarly, the 50% protection money, levied by East India Company, on all sea trade, financed its army, that captured India after the Battle of Plassey. The British ability to raise an army locally from its trading profits from Indian produce, is what helped them to conquer the sub-continent. And all that was made possible because their power over India was anchored in control of the seas, much like the Arabs along the Indus before them. In both cases we paid the invaders to invade us! So I am all for paying more attention to sea power.

However, if you do look at the power equations on the High Seas around India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and China, with more than just the sheer joy of discovering sea power, you realize that something very significant has happened in Afghanistan. And beyond that, by abandoning Afghanistan, Biden has signaled a major concession to China, and brought the utility of India in the QUAD open to question. Lemme explain with a map.

Malacca Strait, is a narrow sea lane marked on the map, close to Malaysia. During the Cholla Empire era, India actually controlled this vital sea lane, through which all trade from Middle East must pass, to get to China. Most of the oil destined for Chinese factories and power plants passes through this narrow sea lane.

India’s Andaman Islands are not very far from Malacca Strait, and they, combined with the land mass in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, gives us the capability to dominate this narrow sea lane, and hold up most of the oil traffic to China. This is one of China’s main vulnerabilities, and India plays a vital role in QUAD because of its proximity to this choke point.

For the limited purpose of this essay, consider that China buys its oil from Iran and Iraq, ships it down to the Arabian sea off Sri Lanka, veers to the Malacca Strait near Andaman Islands, and turns into the South China Sea towards Ghondozu. This is China’s main vulnerability, which if threatened, would cause oil insurance premia, and oil, to zoom, and China majorly discomfited with disrupted oil supplies. It is in many ways India’s conventional “Brahamastra” against China, and one of the key reason why Trump wooed India into the QUAD.

China has spent much treasure in Gwadar port in Pakistan, and Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, to safeguard its oil shipping routes from the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea corridor from Iraq and Iran opening into the Arabian Sea, to Malacca Straits. It has designs on Andaman Islands as well. The significance of Chinese controlled ports at Gwadar and Hambantota should not be lost on anyone. It shows how keenly Chinese feel their vulnerability, and the extent to which they are prepared to go to secure their vital shipping routes.

Now look at the map again, but this time at the arrows marked in red. These depict a possible oil pipeline, running from Iraq and Iran, through Northern Afghanistan, to China.

Ladakh was the only place where we could have disrupted this potential pipeline, and so the Chinese moved quickly to thwart our road infrastructure being built in that area. The Chinese incursion in Ladakh betrays what they have in mind - an overland pipeline running from Iran, and later Iraq, through Northern Afghanistan, into China, that completely bypasses the choke point at Malacca Strait.

If and when this pipeline comes up, and Chinese skills in building infrastructure are legendary, China will have more or less completely neutralized India’s ability to disrupt its critical oil supplies, reducing India’s leverage with China, and the QUAD, considerably.

But that’s not my main point in writing this rejoinder.

I am wondering why Biden, who was sitting pretty in Afghanistan, abandoned his crucial perch on this critical pipeline route, letting China build such crucial bypass to the Malacca choke point, uncontested?

Think about it.

There is no way China would consider building a pipeline from Iran, across Afghanistan, into Xinjiang, if the US continued its presence, howsoever token, in Afghanistan.

Since neither Biden nor the CIA, or Pentagon, are fools, why did Biden abandon his critical perch in Afghanistan to open the land corridor for the pipeline, that all but negates the huge advantage in sea power that Malacca Straits gives QUAD? Is it even thinkable that this vacation of Afghanistan happens without considering the implications of such a move?

Would any serious strategic thinker ignore the possibility of a pipeline running from Iraq/Iran, across Afghanistan, into China? And if not, why has Biden opened the corridor? It is not as if he had suddenly run out of options.

Is Biden’s vacation of Afghanistan part of a quiet deal with China? If so, is it the end of QUAD? If it is the end of QUAD as we know it, where does that leave India, who has burnt so many bridges, and scorched so many opportunities, to join the QUAD?

These are the questions that Editor ji should be posting in his National Interest Column, instead of copying Modi, and being a “Feel Good Guru of the High Seas” for the laity, me included.

Why do I make a point of this? When venerable editors become “feel good gurus” of snake-oil salesman, who will ask the Government the questions that need to be asked in a democracy?

Hai koi jawab?

What is the true implication of Biden abandoning Afghanistan? Why is my hypothesis of an oil pipeline across Afghanistan into China from Iran to bypass the Malacca Strait wrong?

And if it is not, where does that leave India in the Asian and South East Asian power game? What happens to the reconfiguring of our defense forces, the building up of carrier based navy, and what not? These are the questions SG should be asking Doval ji and his Modi ji.

These very worrying questions that should be exercising our minds.

Rejoinder to Shekhar Gupta’s National 
Interest column at The Print, Aug 21.


Bypassing the Malacca Straits

sonaliranade.substack.com

@Rashid Mahmood @Bilal Khan (Quwa)

 

[HRK]

Editor ji believes in spreading positivity amidst the gloom and doom of the pandemic that has brought much misery to the land. However, the malady of “Mission Creep” has caught up with him. From lightening the gloom of pandemic, it now encompasses every calamity that dogs this land. In his latest column, he airily proclaims we should forget about Afghanistan, and turn our strategic gaze to the high seas.

India strategic thought has rather ignored the importance of trade and the high seas over the millennia. Not many know that it was the Arab sea traders, who took the Indus River from us, circa 700 BCE, financed largely by the profits from trade with us, in spices and horses. This was a good 600 years before the Ghaznis and Ghouris. In fact the unravelling of the Gupta empire can be traced to the loss of revenue to the Gupta treasury, from trade with Arabs.

Similarly, the 50% protection money, levied by East India Company, on all sea trade, financed its army, that captured India after the Battle of Plassey. The British ability to raise an army locally from its trading profits from Indian produce, is what helped them to conquer the sub-continent. And all that was made possible because their power over India was anchored in control of the seas, much like the Arabs along the Indus before them. In both cases we paid the invaders to invade us! So I am all for paying more attention to sea power.

However, if you do look at the power equations on the High Seas around India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and China, with more than just the sheer joy of discovering sea power, you realize that something very significant has happened in Afghanistan. And beyond that, by abandoning Afghanistan, Biden has signaled a major concession to China, and brought the utility of India in the QUAD open to question. Lemme explain with a map.

View attachment 771904

Malacca Strait, is a narrow sea lane marked on the map, close to Malaysia. During the Cholla Empire era, India actually controlled this vital sea lane, through which all trade from Middle East must pass, to get to China. Most of the oil destined for Chinese factories and power plants passes through this narrow sea lane.

India’s Andaman Islands are not very far from Malacca Strait, and they, combined with the land mass in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, gives us the capability to dominate this narrow sea lane, and hold up most of the oil traffic to China. This is one of China’s main vulnerabilities, and India plays a vital role in QUAD because of its proximity to this choke point.

For the limited purpose of this essay, consider that China buys its oil from Iran and Iraq, ships it down to the Arabian sea off Sri Lanka, veers to the Malacca Strait near Andaman Islands, and turns into the South China Sea towards Ghondozu. This is China’s main vulnerability, which if threatened, would cause oil insurance premia, and oil, to zoom, and China majorly discomfited with disrupted oil supplies. It is in many ways India’s conventional “Brahamastra” against China, and one of the key reason why Trump wooed India into the QUAD.

China has spent much treasure in Gwadar port in Pakistan, and Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, to safeguard its oil shipping routes from the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea corridor from Iraq and Iran opening into the Arabian Sea, to Malacca Straits. It has designs on Andaman Islands as well. The significance of Chinese controlled ports at Gwadar and Hambantota should not be lost on anyone. It shows how keenly Chinese feel their vulnerability, and the extent to which they are prepared to go to secure their vital shipping routes.

Now look at the map again, but this time at the arrows marked in red. These depict a possible oil pipeline, running from Iraq and Iran, through Northern Afghanistan, to China.

Ladakh was the only place where we could have disrupted this potential pipeline, and so the Chinese moved quickly to thwart our road infrastructure being built in that area. The Chinese incursion in Ladakh betrays what they have in mind - an overland pipeline running from Iran, and later Iraq, through Northern Afghanistan, into China, that completely bypasses the choke point at Malacca Strait.

If and when this pipeline comes up, and Chinese skills in building infrastructure are legendary, China will have more or less completely neutralized India’s ability to disrupt its critical oil supplies, reducing India’s leverage with China, and the QUAD, considerably.

But that’s not my main point in writing this rejoinder.

I am wondering why Biden, who was sitting pretty in Afghanistan, abandoned his crucial perch on this critical pipeline route, letting China build such crucial bypass to the Malacca choke point, uncontested?

Think about it.

There is no way China would consider building a pipeline from Iran, across Afghanistan, into Xinjiang, if the US continued its presence, howsoever token, in Afghanistan.

Since neither Biden nor the CIA, or Pentagon, are fools, why did Biden abandon his critical perch in Afghanistan to open the land corridor for the pipeline, that all but negates the huge advantage in sea power that Malacca Straits gives QUAD? Is it even thinkable that this vacation of Afghanistan happens without considering the implications of such a move?

Would any serious strategic thinker ignore the possibility of a pipeline running from Iraq/Iran, across Afghanistan, into China? And if not, why has Biden opened the corridor? It is not as if he had suddenly run out of options.

Is Biden’s vacation of Afghanistan part of a quiet deal with China? If so, is it the end of QUAD? If it is the end of QUAD as we know it, where does that leave India, who has burnt so many bridges, and scorched so many opportunities, to join the QUAD?

These are the questions that Editor ji should be posting in his National Interest Column, instead of copying Modi, and being a “Feel Good Guru of the High Seas” for the laity, me included.

Why do I make a point of this? When venerable editors become “feel good gurus” of snake-oil salesman, who will ask the Government the questions that need to be asked in a democracy?

Hai koi jawab?

What is the true implication of Biden abandoning Afghanistan? Why is my hypothesis of an oil pipeline across Afghanistan into China from Iran to bypass the Malacca Strait wrong?

And if it is not, where does that leave India in the Asian and South East Asian power game? What happens to the reconfiguring of our defense forces, the building up of carrier based navy, and what not? These are the questions SG should be asking Doval ji and his Modi ji.

These very worrying questions that should be exercising our minds.

Rejoinder to Shekhar Gupta’s National 
Interest column at The Print, Aug 21.


Bypassing the Malacca Straits

sonaliranade.substack.com

@Rashid Mahmood @Bilal Khan (Quwa)

I don't know what was the article the writer of this rejoinder is referring, but things I seriously want to know is about the proposed Oil Pipelines from Iraq and Iran to China via Afghanistan are ....

My Questions

Who proposed these pipelines and when .... why I am reading it first time in this article .... ???

Is there any role of Geographical concept of Topography and Geographical Elevation in the laying down the oil Pipeline .... ???

As those oil pipelines are supposed to start at Iran and Iraq and has to pass through one of the height regions of the world to reach China ....

 

[Cheepek]

Editor ji believes in spreading positivity amidst the gloom and doom of the pandemic that has brought much misery to the land. However, the malady of “Mission Creep” has caught up with him. From lightening the gloom of pandemic, it now encompasses every calamity that dogs this land. In his latest column, he airily proclaims we should forget about Afghanistan, and turn our strategic gaze to the high seas.

India strategic thought has rather ignored the importance of trade and the high seas over the millennia. Not many know that it was the Arab sea traders, who took the Indus River from us, circa 700 BCE, financed largely by the profits from trade with us, in spices and horses. This was a good 600 years before the Ghaznis and Ghouris. In fact the unravelling of the Gupta empire can be traced to the loss of revenue to the Gupta treasury, from trade with Arabs.

Similarly, the 50% protection money, levied by East India Company, on all sea trade, financed its army, that captured India after the Battle of Plassey. The British ability to raise an army locally from its trading profits from Indian produce, is what helped them to conquer the sub-continent. And all that was made possible because their power over India was anchored in control of the seas, much like the Arabs along the Indus before them. In both cases we paid the invaders to invade us! So I am all for paying more attention to sea power.

However, if you do look at the power equations on the High Seas around India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and China, with more than just the sheer joy of discovering sea power, you realize that something very significant has happened in Afghanistan. And beyond that, by abandoning Afghanistan, Biden has signaled a major concession to China, and brought the utility of India in the QUAD open to question. Lemme explain with a map.

View attachment 771904

Malacca Strait, is a narrow sea lane marked on the map, close to Malaysia. During the Cholla Empire era, India actually controlled this vital sea lane, through which all trade from Middle East must pass, to get to China. Most of the oil destined for Chinese factories and power plants passes through this narrow sea lane.

India’s Andaman Islands are not very far from Malacca Strait, and they, combined with the land mass in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, gives us the capability to dominate this narrow sea lane, and hold up most of the oil traffic to China. This is one of China’s main vulnerabilities, and India plays a vital role in QUAD because of its proximity to this choke point.

For the limited purpose of this essay, consider that China buys its oil from Iran and Iraq, ships it down to the Arabian sea off Sri Lanka, veers to the Malacca Strait near Andaman Islands, and turns into the South China Sea towards Ghondozu. This is China’s main vulnerability, which if threatened, would cause oil insurance premia, and oil, to zoom, and China majorly discomfited with disrupted oil supplies. It is in many ways India’s conventional “Brahamastra” against China, and one of the key reason why Trump wooed India into the QUAD.

China has spent much treasure in Gwadar port in Pakistan, and Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, to safeguard its oil shipping routes from the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea corridor from Iraq and Iran opening into the Arabian Sea, to Malacca Straits. It has designs on Andaman Islands as well. The significance of Chinese controlled ports at Gwadar and Hambantota should not be lost on anyone. It shows how keenly Chinese feel their vulnerability, and the extent to which they are prepared to go to secure their vital shipping routes.

Now look at the map again, but this time at the arrows marked in red. These depict a possible oil pipeline, running from Iraq and Iran, through Northern Afghanistan, to China.

Ladakh was the only place where we could have disrupted this potential pipeline, and so the Chinese moved quickly to thwart our road infrastructure being built in that area. The Chinese incursion in Ladakh betrays what they have in mind - an overland pipeline running from Iran, and later Iraq, through Northern Afghanistan, into China, that completely bypasses the choke point at Malacca Strait.

If and when this pipeline comes up, and Chinese skills in building infrastructure are legendary, China will have more or less completely neutralized India’s ability to disrupt its critical oil supplies, reducing India’s leverage with China, and the QUAD, considerably.

But that’s not my main point in writing this rejoinder.

I am wondering why Biden, who was sitting pretty in Afghanistan, abandoned his crucial perch on this critical pipeline route, letting China build such crucial bypass to the Malacca choke point, uncontested?

Think about it.

There is no way China would consider building a pipeline from Iran, across Afghanistan, into Xinjiang, if the US continued its presence, howsoever token, in Afghanistan.

Since neither Biden nor the CIA, or Pentagon, are fools, why did Biden abandon his critical perch in Afghanistan to open the land corridor for the pipeline, that all but negates the huge advantage in sea power that Malacca Straits gives QUAD? Is it even thinkable that this vacation of Afghanistan happens without considering the implications of such a move?

Would any serious strategic thinker ignore the possibility of a pipeline running from Iraq/Iran, across Afghanistan, into China? And if not, why has Biden opened the corridor? It is not as if he had suddenly run out of options.

Is Biden’s vacation of Afghanistan part of a quiet deal with China? If so, is it the end of QUAD? If it is the end of QUAD as we know it, where does that leave India, who has burnt so many bridges, and scorched so many opportunities, to join the QUAD?

These are the questions that Editor ji should be posting in his National Interest Column, instead of copying Modi, and being a “Feel Good Guru of the High Seas” for the laity, me included.

Why do I make a point of this? When venerable editors become “feel good gurus” of snake-oil salesman, who will ask the Government the questions that need to be asked in a democracy?

Hai koi jawab?

What is the true implication of Biden abandoning Afghanistan? Why is my hypothesis of an oil pipeline across Afghanistan into China from Iran to bypass the Malacca Strait wrong?

And if it is not, where does that leave India in the Asian and South East Asian power game? What happens to the reconfiguring of our defense forces, the building up of carrier based navy, and what not? These are the questions SG should be asking Doval ji and his Modi ji.

These very worrying questions that should be exercising our minds.

Rejoinder to Shekhar Gupta’s National 
Interest column at The Print, Aug 21.


Bypassing the Malacca Straits

sonaliranade.substack.com

@Rashid Mahmood @Bilal Khan (Quwa)

What the hell, the chauthi fail should have drawn one red line from SA to China too!
++ Marked Afghanistan as Iran and Iran as Iraq.

 

[Rashid Mahmood]

The Malacca Strait was a vital shipping route from the East to the West and still is to some extent, as shipping is not going anywhere soon.

However, after 2013 and China's BRI initiative, it will probably lessen the importance of the Straits.
The new trade routes will link China to the World by road and rail which will simply change things.

CPEC will bring the Arabian Sea nearer to Chinese exports and will become the major hub of Shipping.
No shipping would like to enter the Persian Gulf and save time by just using Gwadar.

Ever since in 2003, when Hu Jintao coined this problem as the ‘Malacca Dilemma’ declaring a fight to claim the control of the strait by ‘certain major powers’, every strategic action taken by China can be assumed to address this Malacca dilemma. Therefore, while reviewing BRI one needs to explore the effectiveness of its mechanisms in mitigating the energy insecurity stemming from Malacca Dilemma.

To add to this, if these oil pipe lines are built, China will gain the most and for those who had the plan to block the Malacca Strait and starve China will be humiliated.

 

[Chhatrapati]

The Malacca Strait was a vital shipping route from the East to the West and still is to some extent, as shipping is not going anywhere soon.

However, after 2013 and China's BRI initiative, it will probably lessen the importance of the Straits.
The new trade routes will link China to the World by road and rail which will simply change things

It is still one of the largest and busiest straight. I frankly don't see how CPEC will be successful when you have to traverse the Northern Mountains where it snows heavily and are prone to landslides. BRI will not take off until it can match the cargo capacity and rates of shipping lanes. Whose per ton cost is extremely cheap, the only advantage of land routes are for transportation of perishable goods.

CPEC will bring the Arabian Sea nearer to Chinese exports and will become the major hub of Shipping.
No shipping would like to enter the Persian Gulf and save time by just using Gwadar.

Sounds like wishful thinking, like the previous point, shipping through waterways is extremely cheap. Given the current oil prices, land route can never match the cost or capacity.
Major Chinese export locations are to the eastern regions, western China is sparsely populated deserts. There is more than a thousand mile between the populated regions in China and Pakistan.

Ever since in 2003, when Hu Jintao coined this problem as the ‘Malacca Dilemma’ declaring a fight to claim the control of the strait by ‘certain major powers’, every strategic action taken by China can be assumed to address this Malacca dilemma. Therefore, while reviewing BRI one needs to explore the effectiveness of its mechanisms in mitigating the energy insecurity stemming from Malacca Dilemma.

Malacca dilemma is an emergency that arises out of a security situation. But they will still use Malacca straight for their shipping. If India, the US , or any ASEAN nation decided to put a blockade then and only then alternative shipping routes are availed which sounds improbable. At that point the cost will not matter. Add to that, China already have an oil pipeline through Russia from where they import oil.

To add to this, if these oil pipe lines are built, China will gain the most and for those who had the plan to block the Malacca Strait and starve China will be humiliated

Basically you're saying the biggest beneficiary will be China, which is exactly the reality.