Raising questions on Pakistan's Yemen deployment plans.

[Kompromat]

Few questions that must be answered over Pakistan's proposed involvement in ‪#‎Yemen‬.

1: Currently FATA, LOC, Indian border, Afghanistan border, Karachi, Siachen & Khuzdar are active fronts which have stretched Pakistan military's capabilities, leading for them to make immense changes in conventional force posture. If the Parliament does approve the deployment of Pakistan Army into either Saudi Arabia or Yemen, it would leave Pakistan Army even more stretched with its resources and manpower. If Pakistan is going to fulfill a capability gap for the Saudi military forces, who will fulfill the gap left by the deployment of Pakistan Army inside Pakistan's own low intensity conflict zones?

2: Would Saudi Arabia and its allies be willing to make a token military contribution to Pakistan's conventional defenses should another war with India breakout?

3: What guarantee there is that India won't take advantage of the Pakistani deployment to the Middle East by being assertive on the border or by teaming up with Iran and Afghanistan to isolate Pakistan as it has always wanted to?

4: What contingency plan does the govt have if such a deployment fuels further sectarianism in Pakistan?

5: What would the govt do if Iran who would be unhappy about such a deployment reactivates its own proxies inside Pakistan to create a situation right here in order to make Pakistan 'pay' for it?

6: Why would the govt not specify, in the light of Pakistani national interests what exactly are the objectives for which they want to join this coalition?

7: Why Al-Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula and Daesh haven't yet been targeted in #Yemen by the coalition airstrikes?

Please share your thoughts - Horus from Pakistan Defence

 

[Abingdonboy]

3: What guarantee there is that India won't take advantage of the Pakistani deployment to the Middle East by being assertive on the border or by teaming up with Iran and Afghanistan to isolate Pakistan as it has always wanted to?

Could you expand a little on how India, Iran and Afghanistan could/would be able to "isolate" Pakistan?

India is a status quo seeking power, it has zero interest in doing anything of the sort, in 1971 (before the nuclear umbrella even existed) India had Pakistan on its knees but left (West) Pakistan, relatively, untouched. In the past decade Pakistan has been significantly focused on its internal issues, has India sought to take advantage of this for its own goals in that time?



And anyway, would Pakistan really deploy enough of a force to Yemen to alter the current status quo vis a vis India? Pakistan deploys thousands of troops to UN peacekeeping missions every year- does this leave a gap for India to exploit?


India has had the opportunities in the past and has never sought to do so so this entire premise is moot in my opinion.

 

[Kompromat]

Could you expand a little on who India, Iran and Afghanistan could/would be able to "isolate" Pakistan?

India is a status quo seeking power, it has zero interest in doing anything of the sort, in 1971 (before the nuclear umbrella even existed) India had Pakistan on its knees but left (West) Pakistan, relatively, untouched. In the past decade Pakistan has been significantly focused on its internal issues, has India sought to take advantage of this for its own goals in that time?

And anyway, would Pakistan really deploy enough of a force to Yemen to alter the current status quo vis a vis India? Pakistan deploys thousands of troops to UN peacekeeping missions every year- does this leave a gap for India to exploit?

India has had the opportunities in the past and has never sought to do so so this entire premise is moot in my opinion.

"Delhi can draw satisfaction that Pakistan’s overreach in the Gulf will preoccupy the military leadership in Rawalpindi. The Pakistani military personnel are also involved in suppressing the Shi’ite agitation seeking democratic empowerment in Bahrain. And Pakistan getting caught up in the Arab Spring cannot be ruled out. Delhi should make use of this respite to its advantage."

"Of course, the shared concerns of Iran and India in the Afghan situation need no reiteration and Delhi needs to have candid exchanges with Tehran"

Source: Indian Diplomat's Take On: Pakistan's Yemen War

 

[Abingdonboy]

"Delhi can draw satisfaction that Pakistan’s overreach in the Gulf will preoccupy the military leadership in Rawalpindi. The Pakistani military personnel are also involved in suppressing the Shi’ite agitation seeking democratic empowerment in Bahrain. And Pakistan getting caught up in the Arab Spring cannot be ruled out. Delhi should make use of this respite to its advantage."

"Of course, the shared concerns of Iran and India in the Afghan situation need no reiteration and Delhi needs to have candid exchanges with Tehran"

Source: Indian Diplomat's Take On: Pakistan's Yemen War

One "analysts" take on the matter, it is hardly outlining India's official plans.


As I have pointed out the facts speak for themselves and India has no real interest in changing the status quo especially not now it is returning to its economic boom.

 

[Kompromat]

One "analysts" take on the matter, it is hardly outlining India's official plans. As I have pointed out the facts speak for themselves and India has no real interest in changing the status quo especially not now it is returning to its economic boom.

You never should exclude an enemy from your calculus, never.

 

[Zarvan]

Few questions that must be answered over Pakistan's proposed involvement in ‪#‎Yemen‬.

1: Currently FATA, LOC, Indian border, Afghanistan border, Karachi, Siachen & Khuzdar are active fronts which have stretched Pakistan military's capabilities, leading for them to make immense changes in conventional force posture. If the Parliament does approve the deployment of Pakistan Army into either Saudi Arabia or Yemen, it would leave Pakistan Army even more stretched with its resources and manpower. If Pakistan is going to fulfill a capability gap for the Saudi military forces, who will fulfill the gap left by the deployment of Pakistan Army inside Pakistan's own low intensity conflict zones?

2: Would Saudi Arabia and its allies be willing to make a token military contribution to Pakistan's conventional defenses should another war with India breakout?

3: What guarantee there is that India won't take advantage of the Pakistani deployment to the Middle East by being assertive on the border or by teaming up with Iran and Afghanistan to isolate Pakistan as it has always wanted to?

4: What contingency plan does the govt have if such a deployment fuels further sectarianism in Pakistan?

5: What would the govt do if Iran who would be unhappy about such a deployment reactivates its own proxies inside Pakistan to create a situation right here in order to make Pakistan 'pay' for it?

6: Why would the govt not specify, in the light of Pakistani national interests what exactly are the objectives for which they want to join this coalition?

7: Why Al-Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula and Daesh haven't yet been targeted in #Yemen by the coalition airstrikes?

Please share your thoughts - Horus from Pakistan Defence

After Nuclear stuff India will commit suicide if they messed with us when we are busy in Middle East. As for this campgain our main goal if we go in should be to beat the hell out of Houthis so they start talks and also by GCC funding help Yemen rebuild its Armed Forces and equip them. We have to go in we can't afford to anger entire Sunni Block for Iran or Houthis.

 

[Abingdonboy]

You never should exclude an enemy from your calculus, never.

Fair enough but don't let that turn into paranoia.

 

[That Guy]

If Pakistan were to get directly involved with Yemen, a reserve force would be more than enough to cover capabilities. From what I knw, only Pakistan's active forces are stretched thin, so sending reservists should make things easier.

Would the Saudis, and indeed the Arab world help Pakistan, in case of war with India? Militarily? No. Financially, or materially? Perhaps, but I wouldn't count on it. Arab governments are quite self-centered, they will only make a minimal contribution (whatever that may be) to show that they support Pakistan.

India is going to take advantage of this situation, it's inevitable. There is little Pakistan can do, and only demanding KSA downgrade it's relationship with India may mitigate some of the costs that Pakistan is sure to face. Afghanistan can't do much to isolate Pakistan, as Pakistan is needed for them to have any sort of peace. They may facilitate Indian terror cells, but they won't risk angering Pakistan too much.

I believe that the government has 0 contingency plans in place to counter any sort of sectarian crisis. The military though? I would wager that they're quite prepared. After the 71 war, they probably have systems in place to counter any sort of treasonous or sectarian agenda.

Iran has always been a concern, but if nothing will change if Iran is angered. The Iranians are already using proxies in Pakistan, and spreading their sectarian agenda, the only thing that will happen is that their efforts will get more aggressive in nature. In order to strike a balance between Iran and KSA, perhaps Pakistan should look to revive the IP pipeline? Just a thought.

The government itself is politically nervous about this entire situation. The decision has already been made, but it seems that the government wants support from at least major political faction within Pakistan, before declaring it's intention to send troops to KSA. It is purposefully being vague, just in case it gets no support, so it can back track if needed.

The Houthis are considered a bigger threat than AQAP, and Daesh. Perhaps KSA believes that it can handle AQAP and Daesh on it's own, or perhaps they're waiting for a ground operation to commence before targeting AQAP and Daesh, as they don't want to expand their air campaign just yet. Perhaps KSA thinks that they can be used as (unwilling or willing) tools against Iran and the Houthis? This is only something that Saudi military planners would be able to tell you for certain.

 

[A.M.]

We shouldn't join the fight because:

1. Zar-e-azb and the amount of resources allocated in that operation.
2. Khyber I & II.
3. Constant need to keep an eye on our friends on the eastern border.
4. Saudi Arabia started this mess because their homeboy was ousted by the people of Yemen.
5. Sunni/ Shia mess is the last thing we should be involved in given we have a considerable Shia population of our own.
6. We share a border with Iran. SA doesn't.
7. SA is more than capable of handling this themselves, militarily and economically.

The above being said, I have full confidence that the orangutans sitting in parliament will vote in favor of joining. This is Pakistan after all.

 

[Desert Fox]

It looks like our credibility as a neutral Muslim country and potential peace broker has been tarnished for good now.

We should have been pushing for a coalition of peace keeping Islamic forces comprising of Pakistani, Indonesian, Malaysian, Bangladeshi, Kazakhstani troops and other non-Middle Eastern, neutral Islamic countries, with each country contributing 20-30,000 troops each, and deploying these troops to Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, etc to help establish peace and initiate negotiations between the warring sides.

I'm certain this proposition would have been endorsed by the international community, particularly Russia, China, and even perhaps the GCC countries.

But alas, we had to involve ourselves not as negotiators, but as mercenaries, and picked sides in a conflict that has nothing to do with us and has only caused more escalation of bloodshed in yet another part of the Middle East & Islamic world.

 

[Kompromat]

If we have to deploy, we need to deploy the Marines instead of the Army and send in SEAL teams to work with the GCC SOF units. SSG is much needed at home.

 

[Desert Fox]

One "analysts" take on the matter, it is hardly outlining India's official plans.


As I have pointed out the facts speak for themselves and India has no real interest in changing the status quo especially not now it is returning to its economic boom.

That's the biggest pile of nonsense yet.

Since when has india decided to lower its guns?? Just because its making more money??

Lets discuss real politik here. India will use every opportunity it gets to undermine Pakistan. It is only natural that it would do this.

 

[That Guy]

It looks like our credibility as a neutral Muslim country and potential peace broker has been tarnished for good now.

We should have been pushing for a coalition of peace keeping Islamic forces comprising of Pakistani, Indonesian, Malaysian, Bangladeshi, Kazakhstani troops and other non-Middle Eastern, neutral Islamic countries, with each country contributing 20-30,000 troops each, and deploying these troops to Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, etc to help establish peace and initiate negotiations between the warring sides.

I'm certain this proposition would have been endorsed by the international community, particularly Russia, China, and even perhaps the GCC countries.

But alas, we had to involve ourselves not as negotiators, but as mercenaries, and picked sides in a conflict that has nothing to do with us and has only caused more escalation of bloodshed in yet another part of the Middle East & Islamic world.

And why would the nations mentioned get involved? Pakistan, at least, has an excuse. I genuinely curious about your answer, it's the first time I've heard anyone go into this sort of specific.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Since when has india decided to lower its guns?? Just because its making more money??

I'm not saying it has decided to "lower its guns" but it has hardly pursued a policy of disturbing the status quo- Pakistan has started all 4 wars with India.

Lets discuss real politik here. India will use every opportunity it gets to undermine Pakistan. It is only natural that it would do this.

India seeks to protect its own interests and in many instances this equates to undermining Pakistan but it is hardly doing so for the sake of it like the policy Pakistan pursues vis a vis India.

 

[That Guy]

One "analysts" take on the matter, it is hardly outlining India's official plans.


As I have pointed out the facts speak for themselves and India has no real interest in changing the status quo especially not now it is returning to its economic boom.

India's entire goal is to change the status quo. With India growing as a power, and looking to gain complete regional hegemony, India would be stupid to keep the status quo as it is; It would only be constricting itself. Basically, India has little choice in the matter.